东兴证券指出，当下时点，险资的资本市场"稳定器"作用显得尤为重要。本次监管层降低险资部分投资 品种的风险因子，在推动资本市场平稳健康发展的同时，亦有望提升险企资金运用效率和投资收益，进 而提升险企经营业绩。此外，资本市场运行环境的改善亦将直接推动券商业绩释放。从投资标的看，当 前非银行业的马太效应不断增强，行业头部机构更有能力和机会参与政策创新，把握政策红利窗口期， 提升自身经营业绩，故建议持续重点关注行业头部公司的投资价值。此外，在ETF蓬勃发展的大背景 下，出于投资需求的差异化，证券、保险ETF的投资价值也应继续重点关注。 保险证券ETF紧密跟踪中证800证券保险指数，中证800证券保险指数是在中证800指数的基础上，选择 证券保险行业内对应的证券作为指数样本，为投资者提供更多样化的投资标的。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证800证券保险指数(399966)前十大权重股分别为中国平安 (601318)、东方财富(300059)、中信证券(600030)、国泰海通(601211)、中国太保(601601)、华泰证券 (601688)、中国人寿(601628)、广发证券(000776)、招商证券( ...

作者 |第一财经 杜卿卿 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，为明年经济工作指明方向。 相比此前，会议在宏观政策取向、产业发展重点以及资本市场改革方向等方面都有不少新提法，为A股 市场投资提供了最新指引。 业内认为，新旧动能交替仍将是2026年的主要线索，科技板块如AI、半导体、机器人等值得关注，顺 应国家战略、具备真实技术壁垒的科技企业将是明年A股投资的重要主线。在政策红利与产业升级共振 下，A股市场长期稳健运行基础将进一步夯实。 2025.12.12 本文字数：3725，阅读时长大约6分钟 会议在部署"改革攻坚"任务时强调"持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革"。 "2026年是'十五五'规划的开局之年，金融改革创新的重点领域仍在资本市场。"银河证券首席经济学家 章俊认为，新质生产力正成为经济高质量发展的强劲推动力和支撑力，需要加强资本市场改革，更好赋 能新质生产力。 在他看来，继"十五五"规划建议强调"健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能"之后，中央经济工作会议 使用"持续深化"这一表述，是对2026年资本市场开展投融资改革重要性的再次深化。 政策预期：积极、宽松 会议明确，继续实施更加积极的财政政 ...

Market Review - The Huaxia Sci-Tech AI ETF (589010) fell by 2.07%, reaching a relatively low price, providing a cost-effective investment opportunity for medium to long-term investors [1] - The sector experienced a deep adjustment, with Tianzhun Technology leading the decline by over 5%, while other major stocks like Xinghuan Technology and Haitai Ruisheng dropped by over 4% [1] - Despite short-term volatility, the total trading volume exceeded 85 million yuan, indicating some funds are still engaged in rational trading and positioning [1] - The Robot ETF (562500) decreased by 1.95%, with stocks showing a general decline, except for Hongxun Technology and Huadong CNC, which rose by over 2% [1] - The trading volume for the Robot ETF was nearly 950 million yuan, reflecting sufficient liquidity despite market fluctuations [1] Key News - Yushu Technology's CEO Wang Xingxing indicated that the key indicator for the arrival of "embodied intelligence" is achieving an 80% task success rate in 80% of unfamiliar environments, which could occur within the next one to two years [2] Institutional Views - Huaxi Securities (002926) believes that the development of humanoid robots will provide new application markets for component manufacturers, with related companies expected to benefit from technological advantages [4] - The Robot ETF (562500) is noted as the only fund with over 20 billion in scale and the best liquidity, covering the entire Chinese robot industry chain [4] - The Huaxia Sci-Tech AI ETF (589010) is positioned to capture the "singularity moment" in the AI industry with its 20% price fluctuation limit and flexibility in small and mid-cap stocks [4] Future Industry Planning - Jilin Province's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes forward-looking layouts in future industries, including artificial intelligence, hydrogen energy, and bio-manufacturing [2] - The plan aims to build high-performance computing clusters and promote "AI+" initiatives, focusing on the entire chain of embodied intelligence and humanoid robot industries [2] - It also includes accelerating the development of hydrogen energy and new battery products, as well as advancing satellite products and integrated information infrastructure [2]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to continue a weak oscillating pattern in 2026, influenced by concerns over rising inflation and ongoing strict regulations, which aligns with current market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - A potential shift from expansive fiscal policy to stable fiscal policy may occur if economic growth targets are lowered, which could reduce the fiscal deficit ratio and alleviate supply pressure on government bonds [1] - The transition from stable monetary policy to expansive monetary policy could enhance bond market performance beyond expectations, but this may require the emergence of bottom-up risk events [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The key to the bond market's performance in 2026 will be the anticipation of substantial changes in monetary policy, with a possible pattern of "slow at first, fast later," where the first quarter may remain subdued while waiting for policy changes and addressing inflation concerns [1] - The second and third quarters may present opportunities for market engagement, potentially leading to the formation of an annual low point [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market may continue to experience a weak oscillating pattern in 2026, similar to 2025, due to concerns over rising inflation and ongoing strict regulations [1] - There is a consensus expectation that the bond market will struggle to form a clear direction, influenced by the transition from expansive fiscal policies to stable fiscal policies if economic growth targets decline [1] - The key to the bond market's performance in 2026 will be the substantial changes in monetary policy, which may require the emergence of bottom-up risk events to stimulate active monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The potential shift in fiscal policy could alleviate supply pressure on government bonds if the fiscal deficit rate decreases alongside lower economic growth targets [1] - The bond market may see a "slow at first, fast later" rhythm, with a period of dormancy in the first quarter, followed by active engagement in the second and third quarters, potentially leading to an annual low point [1]

截至2025年12月11日 13:19，科创债ETF鹏华(551030)上涨0.05%，盘中成交额40.62亿元，市场交投活 跃。截至上个交易日，科创债ETF鹏华最新规模201.42亿元。 华西证券指出，2026年债市可能延续25年偏弱的震荡格局，这也是当前市场较为一致的预期。然而，一 致性预期总是容易被打破。2026年可能变化的方向：一是宽财政向稳财政的转变，如果经济增速目标下 降，对应的财政赤字率也可能同步回落，由此对债券市场来说，政府债的供给压力减轻；二是稳货币能 否过渡为宽货币，进而推动债市表现超出预期。货币政策主动发力，可能需要一些自下而上的风险事件 发酵，如果没有外部因素的刺激，货币政策可能还是以稳为主。因而2026全年债市行情的关键，是等待 货币政策的实质性变化。从节奏上看，或是"前慢后快"，一季度（或春节前）蛰伏，等待货币政策的变 化，及消化潜在的通胀担忧，二、三季度出击，进而容易形成全年低点。 作为首批10只科创债ETF之一，科创债ETF鹏华(551030)跟踪上证AAA科技创新公司债指数，该指数是 从上交所上市的科技创新公司债中，选取主体评级AAA，隐含评级AA+及以上的债券作为成分券。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The MSCI China Index is expected to rebound further, with an estimated increase of approximately 18% by the end of 2026, driven by normalization of valuations and measures to curb overcapacity, while the CSI 300 Index is projected to rise by about 12% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Recent domestic policy statements have provided support for the market, and the prolonged period of market fluctuations suggests a potential window for cross-year market positioning [1] - Historical data indicates that from 2010 onwards, the cross-year phase typically experiences a rally lasting 1-2 months, with a higher probability of positive returns when indices are at low levels [1][2] Group 2: Fund Flows - As the year-end approaches, there is an expectation of increased capital inflow into A-shares, driven by factors such as the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a strong RMB supporting foreign investment in Chinese assets [2] - Domestic regulatory adjustments, including a reduction in risk factors for insurance fund equity investments, are expected to enhance the momentum for insurance capital entering the market [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Since mid-November, the speed of index adjustments has accelerated due to weak economic expectations, changes in overseas liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances, creating a favorable window for cross-year positioning [3] - The low interest rate environment continues to drive household funds towards equity markets, and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference may lead to positive policy changes, maintaining a long-term optimistic trend in the market [3]

截至10点09分，科创人工智能ETF（589010）下跌1.19%，报1.333元，当前处于日内低位震荡整理 阶段，或为关注该板块的投资者提供了相对低位的配置窗口。持仓股方面虽然跌多涨少，但结构性亮点 突出，中科星图展现强劲势头，逆势大涨超6%，凌云光、石头科技红盘运行；天准科技、澜起科技等 权重股跌幅居前。流动性方面，早盘成交额已突破4500万元，交投情绪并未因价格调整而冰冻。 科创人工智能ETF华夏（589010）紧密跟踪上证科创板人工智能指数，覆盖全产业链优质企业，兼 具高研发投入与政策红利支持，20%涨跌幅与中小盘弹性助力捕捉AI产业"奇点时刻"。 每日经济新闻 消息方面，美国国防部表示，已选定谷歌的Gemini for Government系统，为其约300万名文职和军 职人员提供人工智能支持。"美国作战的未来已经到来，它的名字就叫人工智能"，国防部长皮特·海格 塞斯周二在X发布的一段视频中说道，并补充称该软件将帮助军方快速分析视频和图像。五角大楼在一 份声明中表示，名为GenAI.mil的新平台旨在推动人工智能驱动的文化变革，这种变革将在未来几年主 导数字战场。 华西证券表示，此前产业界对AI技术 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huaxi Securities published a report indicating that Zhonghui Group's FY2025 total revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to be 2.489 billion, 514 million, and 592 million yuan respectively, with a proposed final dividend of 0.074 HKD per share and an interim dividend of 0.066 HKD per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 30% and a corresponding dividend yield of 9.66% [1] Group 1 - The group's revenue from tuition, accommodation, and non-degree vocational education services for the reporting period was 2.156 billion, 205 million, and 128 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 6.3%, 4.9%, and 46.3% [1] - The total number of students enrolled in the group showed steady growth, reaching 99,800 by the end of FY2025, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - In the short term, a decline in student enrollment is expected for FY26 due to the company's proactive reduction of enrollment plans for specialized undergraduate programs aimed at professional upgrading and high-quality development; however, a stable growth is anticipated for FY27 [1] - Future growth points for the company are expected to arise from the integration of industry and education, as well as social training [1] - Progress has been made in international education, with the first batch of foreign students welcomed this year, and active preparations for a teaching center in Hong Kong and overseas, indicating potential recovery in overseas business [1]

Core Insights - The imminent launch of commercial real estate REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) is generating significant market interest, with expectations to activate a trillion-yuan level of existing real estate assets and enhance capital market efficiency [1][4] - Investors are advised to view REITs as equity assets with dividend attributes rather than fixed-income assets, focusing on long-term returns [2][6] - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs marks a shift towards a more comprehensive and mature C-REITs market, complementing existing infrastructure REITs [2][3] Industry Developments - The commercial real estate sector in China is preparing for the launch of REITs, with many state-owned and private enterprises ready to submit applications once regulations are finalized [1][5] - The approval process for commercial real estate REITs is expected to accelerate under the guidance of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), differing from previous oversight by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) [4][5] - The market has seen a rapid development of infrastructure REITs, with 78 products established and a total issuance scale exceeding 200 billion yuan over the past four years [1] Investment Dynamics - Commercial real estate REITs provide a new exit strategy for real estate developers, facilitating a transition from development to asset management [2][3] - The market is witnessing a shift in the core demands of original equity holders from merely recovering funds to strategic capital restructuring, inspired by Singapore's dual-fund model [5][6] - The increasing institutionalization of REITs, with over 95% of holders being institutional investors, indicates a strong demand for stable dividend-yielding assets amid a low-interest-rate environment [7] Management Challenges - Fund managers will face heightened competition and must evolve from passive to active management, focusing on asset optimization and risk management [6][7] - The volatility of commercial real estate REITs may exceed that of infrastructure REITs, necessitating enhanced investor education and communication strategies [7] - The growth of REITs is expected to drive value across various financial services, including investment banking, research, and wealth management [6]