农林牧渔行业：猪价短期回暖，不 改去化趋势 2026 年 1 月 30 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：猪价旺季回升，12 月均价下行。农业农村部监测数据显示， 2025 年 12 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 23.40 元/公斤、12.26 元/公斤和 22.63 元/公斤，环比变化分别为-3.50%、-2.27%和-1.81%。猪价在 12 月底部 回升，但均价下行。26 年 1 月猪价明显回升，截至 1 月 20 日，全国外三元生 猪均价 12.90 元/公斤。 供应端： 12 月份，疫病点状爆发和行业亏损影响，养殖端整体出栏节奏偏快。 进入 26 年 1 月，规模场按照正常节奏出栏，中小散户节奏放缓，对 1 月上旬 猪价形成支撑。需求端：元旦支撑需求阶段性走高，12 月生猪屠宰开工率环 比上涨 5.32 个百分点至 39.44%。1 月春节备货逐步开启，终端市场有所提振。 但屠宰端冻品出库对开工率和价格上行造成阻力。 产能变化趋势：国家统计局数据显示，10 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3990 万头，环 比下降 1.10%，12 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3961 万头 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96% to close at 4117.95 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.66% to 14205.89 points. In contrast, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.27% to 3346.36 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 286.27 billion, a decrease of 39.7 billion from the previous day [3][5]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks emerged as the unexpected leaders in supporting the market, particularly driven by the strong performance of "Yizhongtian," which saw an average increase of around 6%. This significantly impacted the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices, while financial stocks, which were previously expected to support the market, became the main force behind the sell-off, with the securities sector down 1.72%, insurance down 1.1%, and banking down 0.41% [4][6]. Trading Dynamics - The market experienced a notable sell-off today, marking one of the largest adjustments in recent times, with trading volume shrinking to approximately 2.86 trillion. This indicates that the market cooling measures have had some effect, particularly in suppressing speculative trading in thematic stocks [5][6]. Commodity and Sector Trends - The metal-related sectors collectively faced significant declines, with precious metals down 8.52%, energy metals down 7.29%, and mining down 5.53%. This was largely attributed to sharp fluctuations in gold prices, which dropped from $5626 per ounce to around $5400, affecting the performance of related commodities [7][9]. Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural and aquaculture sectors showed resilience, with some stocks rising despite the overall market downturn. However, the sustainability of this rally is questionable, as the sector has not undergone sufficient adjustment, and price increases may not lead to lasting trends due to overcapacity in domestic industries [8][9]. Key Signals - Two critical signals warrant attention: first, the gold market appears to have reached a turning point, with speculative trading potentially nearing its end. Second, significant volatility was observed in the U.S. stock market, particularly with the Nasdaq index, which reflects ongoing debates about the sustainability of AI-related investments, especially following substantial declines in major tech stocks like Microsoft [9][10].

已登陆深交所12年的"猪王"牧原股份（002714.SZ）即将在港交所实现二次上市，形成"A+H"的双重资本布局。 1月29日，牧原股份开启招股并在港交所发布本次发行上市H股招股说明书。根据招股书，牧原股份本次全球发售H股基础发行股数为2.74亿股，其中初步安 排香港公开发售股数约占全球发售总数的10%，国际发售股数约占90%。 正大食品和丰益均为农业企业，且均在东南亚国家布局。正大食品向50多个国家分销肉类及食品，在泰国、越南、印度、英国等17个国家设有生产基地；而 总部在新加坡的丰益是棕榈油、粮油加工商，在中国、印尼等国家有庞大的分销网络。这两名基石投资者的参与或许能够加快牧原股份在东南亚市场拓展的 脚步。 参照牧原股份1月29日在A股46.33元/股（约合52港元）的收盘价，港股发行最高价格较A股折价约25%。 从2025年5月向港交所提交上市申请，到2026年1月16日通过港交所上市聆讯，再到1月29日开启招股，牧原股份港股上市之路走得较为顺畅。 而在当前生猪养殖行业整体低迷、各大猪企利润承压的背景下，牧原股份赴港上市是其打开新融资渠道的重要一步。牧原股份表示，募集资金净额约10%， 即约10.46亿 ...

对于此次募集资金用途，牧原股份表示募集资金净额60%（或约62.76亿港元）将用于挖掘海外机遇扩大商业版图，其余将用于通过研发投入推动全产业 链技术创新、营运资金及一般企业用途等。 事实上，牧原股份在境外资本运作与海外业务拓展层面早有探索。 1月29日，牧原股份正式启动H股全球发售，预计于2月6日在香港联交所挂牌交易，此举意味着牧原股份的国际化战略步入发展快车道。 根据牧原股份招股书显示，公司拟发售H股总数达2.74亿股，其中香港公开发售占比10%，共2739.52万股；国际发售占比90%，共2.47亿股。同时，牧原 股份授予国际包销商15%的超额配股权，可额外配发最多4109.27万股H股，用以补足市场超额分配需求。本次全球发售H股最高发售价设定为每股39港 元。 据了解，牧原股份H股全球发售由摩根士丹利亚洲、中信证券（香港）及高盛（亚洲）担任联席保荐人。而正大集团、丰益、中化香港、香港豫农国际、 富达基金、RBC、高毅、平安人寿保险、大家人寿、UBS AM等多家知名机构作为基石投资者，合计认购金额约53.42亿港元。 2022年12月，牧原股份宣布，计划发行全球存托凭证（简称"GDR"）并申请在瑞士证券交 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 生猪市场周报 节前供应施压，关注需求表现 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 联系电话：059586778969 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：生猪价格延续跌势，主力合约2605合约周度下跌1.69%。 行情展望：2月份出栏时间较少，虽然部分企业惜售挺价，但是市场整体在节前预计保持出栏节奏， 节前供应压力增加，关注养殖端出栏情况。需求端，南方交通恢复，屠宰开工率回升，节前备货预期， 但学生放假，短期需求增幅有限。总体来说，需求虽然有回升，但增幅受限，节前市场供应压力较大， 施压生猪价格偏弱调整。 本周期货下行 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源：文化财经 瑞达期货研究院 生猪价格延续跌势，主力合约2605合约周度下跌1.69%。 4 「 期货市场情况」 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货净持仓净空减少，期货仓单0张 图2、生猪前20名持仓变化 图3、生猪期货仓单情况 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guoen Technology is set to launch its global offering on January 27, with a pricing range of HKD 34-42 per share, aiming for a total issuance scale of approximately HKD 10.2 billion to 12.6 billion. The market is discussing the rationality of its pricing, stock price stability post-listing, and long-term valuation logic due to various factors including its business structure and competitive landscape [1][4][11]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Guoen Technology's revenue for 2022-2024 is projected at CNY 134 billion, CNY 174 billion, and CNY 192 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.6%. However, growth is expected to slow to 9.9% in the first ten months of 2025 [2][3]. - The company's net profit has shown significant volatility, with figures of CNY 6.6 billion, CNY 4.7 billion, CNY 6.9 billion, and CNY 7.1 billion for the same periods, reflecting fluctuations of 3.1%, -29.7%, 45.2%, and 40.2% respectively [2][3]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Profitability - Raw material costs account for over 90% of sales costs, leading to limited profitability. The gross margin has declined from 11.8% to 8.3% from 2022 to 2024, with a slight recovery to 10.4% in the first three quarters of 2025 [3][11]. - The health sector shows stronger profitability potential, with a gross margin of 22.5% in the first ten months of 2025, but its revenue contribution is only 3.5%, insufficient to offset the low margins from the chemical sector [3][11]. Group 3: Market Position and Investor Interest - Guoen Technology's market capitalization of CNY 151 billion is the smallest among five concurrent A to H projects, which may reduce its attractiveness to institutional investors [4][5]. - The company has attracted eight cornerstone investors, raising USD 4.1 million, with significant investments from local and health-focused entities, indicating a strategic interest in its health sector [6][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risks - The absence of a greenshoe option in the offering raises concerns about stock price stability post-listing, as it lacks market support mechanisms [9][10]. - The Hong Kong market's preference for high-growth sectors may limit Guoen Technology's valuation, as its chemical business faces inherent valuation discounts compared to high-margin sectors [11].

| 全球發售的發售股份數目 : 273.951,400股H股(視乎超额配股權行 | | | --- | --- | | 使與否而定) | | | 香港發售股份數目 .. | 27.395.200股H股(可予車新分配) | | 國際發售股份數目 | :246.556.200 股H股(可予重新分配及視 | | 乎超額配股權行使與否而定) | | | 最高發售價 : | 每股H股39.00港元,另加1.0%經紀 | | 佣金、0.0027%香港證監會交易徵 | | | 費、0.00565%香港聯交所交易費及 | | | 0.00015%曾財局交易徵費(須於申請 | | | 時以港元繳足,多繳款項可予退還) | | | 面值 . . | 每股H股人民幣1.00元 | | 股份代號 : 2714 | | | 席保薦人、整體協調人、聯席全球協調人、聯席張薄管理人及聯席牽頭經辦人 | | | organ Stanley | Goldman 直成 | | 4 中信证券 根 士 丹 利 | 同 m Sachs | 根据发售方案，公司拟全球发售2.74亿股股份。其中，香港公开发售2739.52万股，国际发售2.47亿股。同时，牧 ...

截至2026年1月30日 13:35，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)上涨0.61%，成分股兄弟科技上涨6.66%，晓鸣股 份上涨5.13%，回盛生物上涨3.69%，罗牛山上涨3.08%，大北农上涨2.94%。养殖ETF(516760)多空胶 着，最新报价0.69元。 农业种植走强，消息面上，1月29日，生意社大豆基准价为4468.00元/吨，与本月初相比，上涨了 1.18%。此外，我国粮食产量达到了14298亿斤，再创历史新高。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资 产，但不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金管理人提醒投资人基金投资的"买者自负"原 则，在做出投资决策后，基金运营状况与基金净值变化引致的投资风险，由投资人自行负担。基金的过 往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩不构成对本基金业绩 表现的保证。投资人购买基金，既可能按其持有份额分享基金投资所产生的收益，也可能承担基金投资 所带来的损失。投资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》《招募说明书》等基金法律文件，全面认识本基金的 风险收益特征和产品特性，并根据自身的 ...

当前时点如何看消费顺周期？20260129 摘要 房地产市场：预计 2027 年接近底部，短期一线城市二手房成交量回升， 价格跌幅收窄，政策稳定预期，显示边际向好信号。关注未来超常规政 策如房贷结构性工具、公积金降息及城市更新货币化安置。 货币政策与流动性：央行维持低利率，定期存款到期或转向理财及权益 市场，活期存款增加，资金更易流入资本市场。地产板块持仓比例仅 0.4%，刷新历史新低，估值修复迅速。 财政政策与消费：财政支出倾斜社保民生等领域，多地发放消费券支撑 春节消费，1 月政府债同比多增，表明财政前置发力。2026 年一季度经 济量价预计整体提升。 通胀预期：春节临近及季节性因素致蔬菜、水果、白酒价格上涨，国际 金属价格上行推动 PPI 向 CPI 传导，预计 2026 年 CPI 中枢高于去年。 白酒板块持仓降至新低，有望迎来反弹。 消费品市场：大众品复苏节奏超前于白酒，连锁业态维持高景气，规模 效应提升利润率。调味品板块库存消化完毕，进入发货周期，餐饮供应 链复苏，经销商备货积极。 Q&A 当前如何看待消费顺周期的表现？ 当前消费顺周期的表现主要受到几个因素的影响。首先，从地产层面来看，我 们总结 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview 1. Baijiu Industry - The baijiu industry is experiencing cautious expectations for sales during the Spring Festival, with a decrease in the willingness of distributors to collect payments. However, Moutai shows strong demand resilience, with its price rebounding. The misalignment of the Spring Festival holiday is expected to benefit Q1 2026, and policies to stimulate domestic demand may be implemented, leading to increased dividend yields for leading companies and maintaining strong profitability [1][3][5]. 2. Paper Industry - The profitability in the paper industry is shifting towards upstream sectors due to high pulp prices and weak downstream consumption, resulting in narrowed profits for midstream operations. It is anticipated that wood chip and pulp prices will continue to rise in Q1, driving up paper prices. Companies with their own pulp production capacity are expected to see sustained profitability [1][7][8]. 3. Forestry Carbon Sink - China is actively promoting forestry carbon sinks as part of its national climate strategy. Companies capable of developing forestry carbon sinks and possessing forestry resources are worth attention, as the cost-effectiveness of forestry carbon sinks is the highest [1][9]. 4. New Consumption Sector - Leading companies in the new consumption sector, such as Laopu Gold, are currently undervalued with strong performance expectations. The rise in gold prices and discount promotions are driving sales growth. Laopu Gold significantly raised prices in the second half of last year, and substantial growth is expected this year [1][10][11]. 5. Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with expectations for a reversal post-Spring Festival. The implementation of trade-in subsidies is expected to improve retail performance. TCL Electronics is integrating Sony's TV business, opening up profitability potential, and is currently undervalued [1][17][19]. Company-Specific Insights 1. Moutai and Other Baijiu Brands - Moutai is recommended as a key investment due to its undeniable competitiveness. Other notable brands include Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have significant advantages in competitiveness and operational capabilities, with opportunities to increase market share [1][6]. 2. Paper Companies - Recommended paper companies include Nine Dragons Paper, Sun Paper, and Yueyang Forest Paper, which are expected to see continuous profit improvements due to their upstream integration [1][7][8]. 3. New Consumption Leaders - Key investment opportunities in the new consumption sector include Laopu Gold, which is expected to achieve a performance of 7 to 8 billion yuan in 2026, corresponding to a P/E ratio of about 16 times, reflecting a 50% growth compared to 2025 [1][11][12]. 4. Gold and Jewelry Sector - The gold and jewelry sector is entering a bull market, with companies like Taibai Gang showing significant profit growth and low P/E ratios, indicating substantial potential. The sector is expected to benefit from promotional activities during Valentine's Day and the Spring Festival [1][13]. 5. Livestock and Meat Industry - The livestock sector, particularly beef and pork, is facing supply pressures, with pig prices in a downward cycle. However, the beef market is expected to see price support due to tight supply conditions [1][20][21][23][22]. 6. Pharmaceutical Manufacturing - The CRO, raw materials, and intermediates sectors in pharmaceutical manufacturing are poised for growth in 2026, driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics. Companies like WuXi AppTec and Junshi Biosciences are highlighted as key players in this space [1][24][25]. Additional Insights - The overall sentiment in the market indicates a cautious but optimistic outlook for various sectors, with specific companies showing strong potential for growth and profitability amidst changing market conditions [1][2][4][10][18].