Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance is under pressure, but industry recovery may drive performance recovery [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 41.8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 41.2%, and a net profit of 0.33 billion yuan, down 93.4% year-on-year [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.7%, with a net profit of 0.12 billion yuan, an increase of 1.69 billion yuan year-on-year but a decrease of 98.0% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The company is focusing on high-end and terminal products, with high-end products accounting for 55.27% of total production in 2024, an increase of 6.84 percentage points from 2023 [5]. - The company is implementing energy-saving and emission-reduction modifications, with a target of creating a benchmark for low-carbon practices in the industry [5]. - The controlling shareholder plans to repurchase shares, demonstrating confidence in the company's future [5]. Financial Summary - The company expects net profits of 0.89 billion yuan, 1.16 billion yuan, and 1.36 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14.1x, 10.9x, and 9.3x based on the closing price on May 13 [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 37.01 billion yuan, 36.82 billion yuan, and 37.05 billion yuan, with growth rates of -11.47%, -0.50%, and 0.63% respectively [7]. - The EBITDA for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 2.49 billion yuan, 2.89 billion yuan, and 3.25 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 52.36 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase to 52.99 billion yuan in 2025 [10][13].

特此公告！ 新余钢铁股份有限公司董事会 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2025 年 5 月 15 日 证券代码：600782 证券简称：新钢股份 公告编号：临2025-039 为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，新余钢铁股份有限公司（以 下简称"公司"）将参加由江西省上市公司协会举办的"2025 年江 西辖区上市公司投资者网上集体接待日活动"，现将相关事项公告如 下： 新余钢铁股份有限公司 关于参加江西辖区上市公司2025年投资者 网上集体接待日活动的公告 本次活动将采用网络远程的方式举行，投资者可登录"全景路演" 网站（http://rs.p5w.net），或关注微信公众号：全景财经，或下载 全景路演 APP，参与本次互动交流，活动时间为 2025 年 5 月 21 日（周 三）15:30-17:00。届时公司将在线就 2024 年度业绩、公司治理、发 展战略、经营状况、股权激励和可持续发展等投资者关心的问题，与 投资者进行沟通与交流，欢迎广大投资者踊跃参与！ ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Macro Economy**: Focus on consumption and infrastructure performance - **Overseas Technology**: Google, Trump administration, Apple - **Medical Devices**: Domestic market recovery and international expansion Key Points and Arguments Macro Economy - Consumption and infrastructure show resilience, while real estate, exports, and production face pressure [1][2] - Strong performance in automotive consumption; infrastructure investment is accelerating [1][2] - Real estate market remains under pressure; port operations for imports and exports are slowing down [1][2] - Overall production indicators in sectors like power generation, steel, petrochemicals, and automotive are declining [2] Overseas Technology - Google released Gemini 2.5 Pro, enhancing front-end development and complex programming capabilities [4] - The model allows users to create interactive web applications with simple prompts, significantly lowering entry barriers for developers [4] - Trump administration plans to revoke Biden-era AI chip export restrictions, aiming to simplify regulations and boost innovation [5] - Apple is considering integrating AI search features into its Safari browser, potentially ending its long-standing partnership with Google [6] Medical Devices - The domestic medical device market is expected to face pressure in 2024 due to centralized procurement and bidding rhythms, but international expansion remains positive [7][8] - Domestic market revenue growth for medical devices is projected to be flat or negative in the short term, with a gradual recovery expected as inventory is digested [8] - Key players in the medical device sector include Huatai Medical, Aibo Medical, and others, focusing on domestic replacement and international breakthroughs [7][8] Medical Consumables - Overall performance remains stable, with some high-value consumables experiencing a slowdown due to industry restructuring and price adjustments [9] - The electrophysiology sector is expected to maintain rapid growth due to increased domestic penetration and international market expansion [9] In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD) - The domestic IVD market is under short-term pressure, with revenue growth projected to be negative in the coming quarters [10] - The overseas market is becoming a significant growth point for IVD companies, with expectations for continued expansion [11] Steel Industry - Steel demand has decreased, with inventory levels rising; however, a recovery is anticipated post-holiday [22][24] - The industry is expected to stabilize as real estate demand declines and infrastructure investment continues [24] - Recommendations include leading steel companies like Baosteel and Hualing Steel, which are expected to benefit from industry consolidation and high-quality development [21][24] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Risks include uncertainties in trade relations, domestic growth policies not meeting expectations, and geopolitical risks affecting the technology sector [2][5][6] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a focus on innovation and adaptation in response to regulatory changes and competitive pressures [5][6][9] - The medical device sector is seeing a shift towards domestic production and international market penetration, with significant growth potential in high-end equipment and diagnostics [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese silicon steel market is experiencing growth, with non-oriented silicon steel dominating production, accounting for 82% of the total output in the first half of 2024, while oriented silicon steel is also on the rise [1][3]. Group 1: Production and Market Trends - In the first half of 2024, China's silicon steel production reached 7.802 million tons, with non-oriented silicon steel production at 6.417 million tons and oriented silicon steel at 1.385 million tons [1]. - The total silicon steel production for 2024 is projected to exceed 15 million tons, maintaining a dominant share for non-oriented silicon steel [1]. - From 2019 to 2023, non-oriented silicon steel capacity increased from 10.96 million tons to 13.71 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% [3]. - Oriented silicon steel production grew from 1.78 million tons in 2019 to 2.96 million tons in 2023, with a forecast of 3.18 million tons for early 2024 [5]. Group 2: Company Developments - Major companies in the non-oriented silicon steel sector include Baosteel, Ansteel, and Taiyuan Iron & Steel, with Baosteel leading with a capacity of over 2 million tons, including 1 million tons of high-grade products [7]. - In the oriented silicon steel market, Baosteel also leads with a capacity of 1.16 million tons, while Wanfeng Electric is noted as the top private enterprise in this segment [7]. - Baosteel's production capabilities include a significant focus on high-grade and thin specifications, with ongoing expansions planned by companies like Shagang and New Steel [7][9].

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/05/12 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 2025/04/30 | 2203 2045 2239 2285 原点 2264 2240 2025/05/06 2199 2280 2041 2253 2025/05/07 2198 2281 2039 2251 2239 沙钢重三价格 (含税) ● 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 4,200元/吨 3,900 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格（不含税） ● 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 3,600元/吨 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 品因H 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 废钢社会库存 据思员H ● 2019 ● 2020 ● 2021 ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ↓ 2025 價in 90 600 据曾原H 80 500 70 60 400 50 3 ...

周期论剑｜外部冲击下周期的价值 20250511 摘要 在当前经济形势下，如何看待中国股票市场的投资机会？ 投资者对经济形势的认识逐步充分，目前投资中国股市的机会成本正在快速下 降。国内政策的连续性有望稳定风险前景，继续看好中国市场，特别是金融、 科技和部分周期板块。策略团队在 4 月 7 日市场低点时明确判断中国股票市场 进入击球区，并持续看多中国股市。本周上证指数再度上涨 1.92%，收复了对 等关税以来的指数失地。今年 3~4 月份股票市场调整和投资者情绪修复，是自 去年 9 月 24 日之后非常重要的一次转折。这表明了投资者对于中美竞争严峻 性以及决策层扭转经济形势决心的疑虑有所削减，是风险释放也是试金石。下 一阶段继续维持乐观看法，理由包括：经历冲击后投资者对经济形势认识已然 充分；美国对等关税后总体进入拉锯和谈判窗口期；中美之间竞争长期存在， 股票市场预期关键在内不在外。政治局会议及国新办发布会释放了以内部确定 性应对外部不确定性的信号，存量政策加速部署，增量政策箭在弦上，中国股 • 煤炭价格加速下行，但供给收缩、需求旺季来临，不宜继续看空市场。中 美贸易冲突对二产用电影响有限，动力煤企业平均成本 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [6]. Core Insights - The steel industry has experienced a significant increase in molten iron production, while the inventory of five major steel products has been reduced, indicating improved demand year-on-year. However, this is contradicted by declining steel prices and feedback from steel companies regarding average order quality [2][4]. - The report highlights the paradox of high molten iron production amidst declining demand, suggesting that understanding the production process and statistical measures is crucial to explain this discrepancy [4][8]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand has fluctuated due to holiday effects, with a notable decrease in apparent consumption of the five major steel products, down 10.75% year-on-year and 14.69% month-on-month. Average daily transaction volume for construction steel decreased to 102,700 tons, a drop of 960 tons per day compared to the previous week [4]. - Molten iron production continues to rise, with average daily production reaching 2.4564 million tons, an increase of 0.22 tons per day month-on-month. The production of five major steel products decreased by 0.89% year-on-year and 1.27% month-on-month [4][8]. - Total steel inventory has shifted to accumulation due to a significant drop in demand, increasing by 2.18% month-on-month. Long product inventory decreased by 18.07% year-on-year, while plate inventory decreased by 14.00% year-on-year [4][8]. Production Insights - The average daily molten iron production from 247 sample steel companies is 2.3336 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The weekly average apparent consumption of five major steel products is 10.82 million tons, nearly unchanged year-on-year [4][8]. - The report notes that the marginal substitution of molten iron for scrap steel has become more pronounced due to a significant drop in metallurgical coke prices, leading to increased molten iron input by steel companies [8]. Market Trends - The report indicates that steel billet exports have significantly increased due to domestic steel price declines and limited overseas import restrictions, with exports reaching 2.56 million tons in the first three months, a year-on-year increase of 200 million tons [8]. - The supply of non-mainstream steel products has increased by 10.6% to match crude steel growth, despite challenges in achieving a 10% demand growth rate for these products [8]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on undervalued quality state-owned enterprises such as Baosteel and Nanjing Steel, as well as companies with strong shareholder returns like CITIC Special Steel. It also highlights the potential of mergers and acquisitions in the sector [24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the anticipation of supply-side constraints being implemented, which is expected to impact the steel industry positively [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,169, with a weekly increase of 1.8% and a year-to-date increase of 3.2% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,150 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.6% [3] - The price of hot-rolled coil is 3,200 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2% and a year-to-date decrease of 6.4% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 98 USD/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 2.0% [3] Inventory Summary - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,032 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 4.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.36% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 443 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date increase of 26.5% [5] - The port inventory of iron ore is 14,235 million tons, with no weekly change and a year-to-date increase of 4.2% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be 1,000 million tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to be around 230 million tons [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, prompting continued attention to investment opportunities in the steel sector. The recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to influence market dynamics positively [8][14]. - The steel sector has experienced a three-year adjustment period, leading to a favorable cost-performance ratio at current levels. The profitability and stability of leading enterprises have significantly improved [8][14]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are expected to decline as steel production peaks, with domestic demand pricing becoming more relevant due to high tariffs affecting external demand [8][14]. Steel Market - The consumption of rebar has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.14 million tons, a 26.67% decrease week-on-week. The average price for rebar is 3,296 CNY per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.8% [15][18][37]. - The overall steel price index has seen a minor decline of 0.71%, with cold-rolled steel prices dropping by 1.33% [37]. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fee has deepened into negative territory, with a reported fee of -43.5 USD per thousand tons, indicating a challenging environment for copper producers [17]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to increased demand driven by tariffs and inflation expectations. The COMEX gold price reached 3,329.1 USD per ounce, a 2.52% increase week-on-week [17]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in March 2025 reached 71,260 tons, a year-on-year increase of 66.53%. The price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 65,700 CNY per ton [16][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, prompting continued attention to investment opportunities in the steel sector. The recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to impact the market positively. The steel sector, having undergone three years of adjustment, now presents a favorable cost-performance ratio, with leading companies showing improved profitability and stability [8][14]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are experiencing notable loosening, with expectations that May's iron and steel production may peak. The steel mills are likely to squeeze iron ore profits, leading to potential downward feedback on prices. The domestic demand-driven pricing in the steel sector is seen as advantageous given the high tariffs affecting external demand [8][14]. Steel Market - The consumption of rebar has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.14 million tons, a 26.67% decrease week-on-week. The overall price index for common steel has slightly declined by 0.71%, with rebar prices at 3,296 CNY/ton, down 0.8% week-on-week [15][37]. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fees have deepened into negative territory, with the current rough smelting fee at -43.5 USD/thousand tons, a decrease of 8.21% week-on-week. The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang slightly increasing while those in Shandong have decreased significantly [17][29]. Precious Metals - Tariffs are expected to boost demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, leading to a potential rise in gold prices. As of May 9, 2025, COMEX gold prices were reported at 3,329.1 USD/ounce, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.52% [17][37]. Investment Recommendations - For the steel sector, it is recommended to focus on leading companies such as Shandong Steel (600022, Buy) and Jiugang Steel (002110, Not Rated). In the non-ferrous sector, investment in Northern Rare Earth (600111, Buy) and Jinchuan Group (300748, Buy) is suggested [8][17].