Group 1 - The construction materials industry is transitioning from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization" due to policy guidance and market clearing, which may support a systematic uplift in the sector's valuation center [1] - Multiple government departments have implemented a "de-involution" strategy for the construction materials industry, tightening capacity replacement policies for basic materials like cement and glass [2] - In 2024, the cement clinker capacity is expected to decrease by approximately 30 million tons, primarily affecting small kiln lines that do not meet energy consumption standards [2] Group 2 - The construction materials industry has experienced two consecutive years of negative capital expenditure, with a projected 18% year-on-year decline in 2024 for the cement sector, marking the lowest new clinker capacity in a decade [5] - The market concentration in the cement industry has increased, with the top ten companies' market share rising from 58% in 2021 to 67% in 2024, indicating a shift towards an oligopolistic competition structure [5] - Leading companies are shifting focus from market share competition to profit protection, with peak production execution rates increasing from 70% to over 90% [6] Group 3 - In Q4 2024, cement prices in East China rebounded by over 20% from their annual low, demonstrating the effectiveness of supply-side reforms [6][8] - The construction materials sector exhibits a low asset and low debt advantage, with a median debt-to-asset ratio of 48.7% compared to 72.3% for the real estate development sector, indicating stronger financial resilience [9] - The sector's business model emphasizes "light assets + channel penetration," resulting in healthy cash flow generation capabilities, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% in net cash flow from operating activities by Q3 2025 [11] Group 4 - The construction materials ETF (159745) tracks the CSI All-Share Construction Materials Index, covering leading companies across the entire industry chain, providing an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the sector [12] - The top ten holdings in the ETF include major players like Conch Cement and Oriental Yuhong, reflecting a high concentration in industry leaders [13] - The construction materials sector is viewed as a core cyclical investment, with demand recovery, supply optimization, and profit recovery supporting its investment value, especially during market shifts towards cyclical stocks [13]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - The notes primarily focus on the **electronic fabric** industry and **real estate** market, with specific mentions of companies such as **China Jushi**, **Keshun Co., Ltd.**, **Sankeshu**, **Rabbit Baby**, **Hankao Group**, **Beixin Building Materials**, **Weixing New Materials**, **Oriental Yuhong**, **Qingniao Fire Protection**, **Qiba Group**, and **Xinyi Glass**. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Increase in Electronic Fabric** The price of 7628 electronic fabric has increased again, with international composite materials rising by **0.5-0.6 yuan/meter**. The supply-demand dynamics in the industry continue to improve, leading to a tight supply of traditional electronic yarn and fabric, alongside a strong demand for mid-to-high-end products. This trend supports a continued price increase, and the outlook for the fiberglass sector is positive for **2026** [1][1][1]. 2. **Stable Demand in Fiberglass Sector** The demand in sectors such as wind power and thermoplastics remains stable, and the expected impact of new supply in **2026** is limited. The supply-demand balance is anticipated to improve marginally, with a strong recommendation for **China Jushi** and suggestions to pay attention to **International Composite Materials**, **Changhai Co.**, and **China National Materials Technology** [1][1][1]. 3. **Real Estate Market Recovery** In January **2026**, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in major cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) has collectively rebounded, with a **16% month-on-month increase** and a **33% year-on-year increase** in transaction area. The growth in first-tier cities exceeds **20%** year-on-year, supported by ongoing real estate policy adjustments that help stabilize the market [2][2][2]. 4. **Price Recovery in Construction Materials** The real estate downturn has accelerated the clearing of supply in the construction materials industry, leading to a rebound in prices for certain products. Several leading companies have begun to report profit recovery after strategic adjustments over the past 2-3 years. Recommended companies for stable growth include **Sankeshu** and **Rabbit Baby**, with additional attention to **Hankao Group**, **Beixin Building Materials**, **Weixing New Materials**, **Oriental Yuhong**, **Keshun Co.**, and **Qingniao Fire Protection** [2][2][2]. 5. **Opportunities in Float Glass Industry** The float glass industry is facing challenges, with two new cold repair lines added this week, reducing production capacity to approximately **14.9 million tons/day**. The industry is currently experiencing losses, and the pressure from inventory accumulation during the traditional Chinese New Year may accelerate the exit of production capacity. The glass sector is expected to stabilize, with recommendations to focus on **Qiba Group** and **Xinyi Glass** [2][2][2]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The overall sentiment in the electronic fabric and construction materials sectors indicates a positive outlook for **2026**, with price increases and demand stability being key themes. - The recovery in the real estate market is seen as a potential catalyst for related industries, suggesting a broader economic recovery may be on the horizon. - The mention of specific companies provides actionable insights for investors looking to capitalize on emerging trends in these sectors [1][2][2].

发布时间：2026-02-09 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 6076.69 | | 52 周最高 | 6160.52 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 2026-01 建筑材料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 近期研究报告 《防水发布涨价函，关注内需弹性品 种》 - 2026.01.26 建材行业报告 （2026.02.02-2026.02.08） 电子布涨价超预期，看好 26 年涨价持续性 投资要点 2 月 4 日，光远新材、国际复材等玻纤龙头对电子布再度提价， 新一轮提价幅度较大，涨价幅度约 0.5-0.6 元/米。此次涨价，我们 判断一方面由于铜价及下游 CCL 涨价预期导致 ...

Core Viewpoint - The building materials sector is expected to experience fundamental improvement and valuation recovery due to dual drivers of policy support and real estate recovery, with a strategic window opening in 2025 [1] Policy Support - The fiscal policy for 2025 includes a record high special bond allocation of 4.4 trillion yuan, with 800 billion yuan directed towards "two major" construction and urban renewal projects, providing certainty for infrastructure demand [2] - Monetary policy is expected to maintain a moderately loose stance, with anticipated cumulative reductions in reserve requirement ratios of 150-250 basis points and interest rates by 40-60 basis points, benefiting infrastructure investment and real estate construction recovery [2] - Real estate policies aim for stabilization, with measures such as optimizing purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios, leading to signs of price recovery in first-tier cities; from January to May 2025, the year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales area narrowed to 2.9%, a significant improvement compared to 2024 [2] Market Trends - Starting in 2025, the sales area and prices of commercial housing are expected to rebound, particularly in the first half of the year, with a notable narrowing of overall declines [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Building Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes improving profitability and prohibits new cement clinker and flat glass capacity, promoting capacity replacement and staggered production to optimize the supply structure [5] - The real estate market in first-tier cities is projected to maintain high transaction levels post-2026, with second-tier cities like Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, and Tianjin also showing positive performance [5] Demand Dynamics - The policy to ensure housing delivery is expected to reduce the year-on-year decline in housing completion area to around 15% in the first half of 2025, directly stimulating demand for basic building materials like cement and glass [6] - The total urban housing stock in China is 37.3 billion square meters, with increasing renovation and upgrading needs driven by aging properties, leading to new growth in building material consumption; green building materials revenue is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2026 [6] Investment Opportunities - The building materials sector has faced five years of decline, but positive signals are emerging, suggesting a potential recovery in the sector [8] - The Building Materials ETF (159745) tracks the CSI All Share Building Materials Index, covering leading companies across the entire industry chain, providing an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the building materials sector [8] - The current environment favors cyclical sectors, with the building materials industry presenting investment value due to demand recovery, supply optimization, and profitability restoration, alongside low valuations and high dividends [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [3] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, funds increased their allocation in the cement and glass sectors, while the overall allocation in the building materials sector remains low at 0.51%, with a low allocation of 0.49% [19][23] - The industry shows signs of profit recovery, with leading companies demonstrating resilience [23] - The fund's strategy continues to focus on core industries that counteract internal competition, particularly in waterproofing and glass [41] Fund Holdings Analysis - As of Q4 2025, the fund's allocation in the building materials sector is 0.51%, up by 0.046 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a low allocation compared to the overall market [19] - The allocation by sub-sector includes cement at 0.13%, glass at 0.07%, and other materials at 0.02% [23] - The fund increased its holdings in all sub-sectors except for consumer materials, new materials, and glass fibers [23] Individual Stock Performance - The top ten companies by fund holdings as of Q4 2025 include: - 菲利华 (44.5 billion RMB) - 东方雨虹 (22.4 billion RMB) - 三棵树 (20.5 billion RMB) - 中材科技 (16.1 billion RMB) - 海螺水泥 (13.7 billion RMB) [41] - The top ten companies by fund holding percentage include: - 菲利华 (8.68%) - 东方雨虹 (8.61%) - 三棵树 (6.00%) [41] Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report includes a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the building materials sector, with several companies rated as "Buy" based on their projected earnings and price-to-earnings ratios [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Puyang Co., San Ke Tree, and Bei Xin Materials [7]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector saw a 4.91% increase from February 2 to February 6, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.10% [12]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at stabilizing prices and boosting macroeconomic governance, which may lead to improved demand in municipal engineering projects [1][12]. - The cement industry is experiencing a demand bottoming out, with a focus on supply-side improvements and regional demand increases driven by large infrastructure projects [1][17]. - The glass fiber market shows structural opportunities, particularly in high-end demand segments, while the overall glass market is under pressure from inventory levels [1][34]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of February 6, 2026, the national cement price index was 340.08 CNY/ton, down 0.83% week-on-week, with a significant drop in cement output and utilization rates [17]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in cement demand leading up to the Lunar New Year, with a strategy of "stabilizing prices and reducing volume" being adopted by many companies [17][30]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of February 5, 2026, was 1154.49 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.85% increase week-on-week, but overall inventory levels remain high [34]. - The report notes that downstream demand is cooling due to the upcoming holiday, although some support from export orders is noted [34]. Glass Fiber Industry Tracking - The report indicates a slight increase in the price of non-alkali glass fiber, driven by rising costs, while high-end electronic yarn prices have seen significant increases [5][34]. - The overall production capacity in the glass fiber sector remains stable, with a slight increase in inventory levels noted [5][34]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment is experiencing a weak recovery, with fluctuations in raw material prices impacting overall demand [6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term market share growth in this segment, particularly in response to policies stimulating consumption [1][6].

重磅研报 持股过节 今日概览 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 02 09 年 月 日 | 【宏观】高频半月观—数据进入"假期模式"——20260208 | | --- | | 【金融工程】持股过节——20260208 | | 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周资金面和宏观基本面弱化—— | | 20260207 | | 【固定收益】持债过节——20260208 | | 【固定收益】资金更为宽松，政府债融资将回落——流动性和机构行为 | | 跟踪——20260207 | | 【建筑材料】竣工端建材将迎来长周期拐点——20260208 | | 【电力设备】钙钛矿：迎来 GW 级量产——20260206 | 【钢铁】方大特钢（600507.SH）-成本优势明显，增长潜力突出—— 20260208 朝闻国盛 研究视点 【煤炭】印度扩产炼钢提振焦煤需求，拟加码美国进口优化供应格局— —20260208 【房地产】C-REITs 周报——双轨并行，商业不动产 REITs 密集上报—— 20260207 【计算机】新国都（300130.SZ）-年报业绩符合预期，软硬出海+港股 上市加速全球化布 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a favorable supply-demand dynamic in the electronic fabric market, with price increases expected to continue in 2026, driven by structural adjustments and strong demand for mid-to-high-end products [5][9]. - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in major cities, which is anticipated to boost the performance of consumer building materials [5][9]. - The cement industry is entering a seasonal downturn, with a slight decrease in prices and demand, but is expected to stabilize post-Chinese New Year [22][29]. Summary by Sections Cement - The cement market is experiencing a seasonal decline, with average shipment rates around 25%, down approximately 8 percentage points week-on-week [22][24]. - The average price of cement is approximately 347 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.2 RMB/ton [22][24]. - Recommendations include companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, with a focus on potential recovery post-holiday [29]. Glass - The glass market is entering a demand lull, with production capacity decreasing to about 14.89 million tons per day, and inventory levels rising [31][41]. - The average price of float glass has increased to 1,154 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week rise of 10 RMB/ton [31][41]. - Companies to watch include Qibin Group and Xinyi Glass, as they may benefit from the anticipated stabilization in the market [41]. Fiberglass - The electronic fabric prices have increased, with 7628 electronic fabric now priced at 5.1-5.3 RMB/m, indicating a strong market outlook for 2026 [5][9]. - The report recommends China Jushi as a key player in the fiberglass sector, with additional attention on International Composite Materials and Changhai Co., Ltd. [5][9]. Carbon Fiber - Carbon fiber prices are stable, with potential demand growth driven by advancements in commercial aerospace [5][9]. - Companies like Zhongfu Shenying and Guangwei Composites are highlighted for their growth potential in this sector [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the building materials sector, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][110]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is at a turning point, with both demand and valuation expected to improve. The real estate sector is anticipated to stabilize, leading to a recovery in building materials demand. The report highlights that new construction starts in 2025 are projected to decline by 70% compared to 2021, with completions down by 40% and new home sales down by 50% [9][8]. - Rising prices of upstream raw materials such as asphalt, polypropylene, and polyethylene are expected to drive up building material prices, benefiting companies with pricing power [9][8]. - The report recommends several companies, including Beixin Building Materials, Oriental Yuhong, and Sanhe Tree, while suggesting to pay attention to companies like Rabbit Baby and China Liansu [9][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The building materials sector is currently underweighted, with a configuration ratio of 0.72% as of Q4 2025, which is significantly lower than the historical average since 2010 [8]. - The cement and glass sectors are noted to be at low valuation levels, with the cement manufacturing PB at the 16th percentile and glass manufacturing PB also at the 16th percentile since 2010 [8]. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Beixin Building Materials: EPS forecasted to increase from 2.1 in 2024 to 3.5 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 13.4 to 8.2 [6]. - Conch Cement: EPS forecasted to rise from 1.5 in 2024 to 2.2 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 17.3 to 11.6 [6]. - China Jushi: EPS expected to grow from 0.6 in 2024 to 1.2 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 36.1 to 18.6 [6]. - Other companies include Weixing New Materials, Sanhe Tree, and Huaxin Cement, all rated as "Buy" or "Increase" [6]. Industry Trends - The report notes a significant increase in market share for consumer building materials over the past few years, with profitability in segments like waterproofing and piping at a low point, suggesting potential for recovery [9][8]. - The cement sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with a current national cement market price decrease of 1% and a notable drop in average shipment rates [36][9]. - The float glass sector is experiencing a supply-side adjustment, with production capacity at a five-year low, indicating potential for price recovery [9][8]. Emerging Opportunities - The report highlights opportunities in overseas markets, particularly in Africa, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, where rising populations and urbanization rates are creating demand for building materials [9][8]. - The electronic fabric market is also noted for its upward price trend due to supply constraints, with significant price increases observed in recent weeks [9][8]. Conclusion - The building materials industry is positioned for a recovery phase, driven by stabilization in the real estate market and rising raw material prices. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong pricing power and market positioning to capitalize on these trends [9][8].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Shanghai government has initiated a pilot program for purchasing second-hand housing, with expectations for further policy support [3] - The report indicates that the effective investment policies discussed in the State Council meeting will focus on infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries, aiming to promote significant projects [3] - The report notes that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with various supportive measures being implemented, including tax reductions and subsidies for home purchases [3] - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential recovery in housing demand due to declining interest rates and improved purchasing power [6] Summary by Sections Recent High-Frequency Data - As of February 6, 2026, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China is 329.1 CNY/ton, down 0.2% week-on-week and down 15.3% year-on-year [4][14] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1105.7 CNY/ton, down 0.1% week-on-week but up 2.8% year-on-year [20][24] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index both fell by 1.27%, while the construction materials index rose by 0.7% [5][55] - Sub-sectors such as glass manufacturing (+5.32%) and cement products (+4.74%) performed well, while fiberglass manufacturing (-1.81%) and refractory materials (-3.24%) saw declines [5][55] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials and Beixin Building Materials [6] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu and Dongfang Yuhong [6] 3. Leading cyclical construction material companies showing signs of bottoming out, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [6]