今天，A股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘，上证指数上涨0.65%，深证成指、创业板指数分别上涨 0.43%、0.39%。 沪深两市成交额达到11226亿元，较上周五放量549亿元。整个市场有超过4400只个股上涨，下跌个股仅 800余只，个股涨跌幅的中位数为上涨1.34%。 周末，美军袭击伊朗核设施的消息，让市场担忧。不过，达哥昨天用两段历史走势告诉大家不必忧虑， 同时认为当前的走势类似于2024年3-4月的箱体震荡走势。 果然，早盘市场在消化担忧情绪后逐渐回升，并最终迎来了普涨行情。上证指数今天上穿了5日、10 日、20日、30日均线，走出了一阳穿四线的走势。 虽然出现了一阳穿四线的走势，但上证指数的涨幅略有不足，因此明天非常关键。假如明天再接再厉向 上攻，那么确定性就增加了。 6月16日，数字货币板块指数以中大阳线的方式，突破去年以来的三重顶。当天达哥在文章中指出，接 下来可以重点观察其能否成为阶段主线，且短期有望反复活跃。 需要重点提到的是，数字货币板块指数于5月27日、6月16日两次与大盘共振，且收出的都是中大阳线。 明天上午10时，国务院新闻办公室将举行新闻发布会。本次发布会将介绍中国人民抗日战争暨世界 ...

芯片博弈之下，美国又要出新招。 近日，"美国拟撤销在华芯片厂豁免权"的消息喧嚣尘上，也令金融市场再掀起新"骚动"。 本周一，港A半导体、芯片股迎来强势涨势。 截至发稿，港股华虹半导体、中芯国际、晶门半导体涨超4%，宏光半导体涨超3%。 A股中晶科技、大为股份涨停，芯导科技涨超12%，中微公司涨超5%，中芯国际涨超4%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅√ | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688230 | 芯导科技 | 54.88 | +6.20 | 12.74% | 64.54亿 | | 003026 | 中晶科技 | 34.38 | +3.13 | 10.02% | 44.77 亿 | | 002213 | 大为股份 | 19.14 | +1.74 | 10.00% | 45.42亿 | | 301678 | C新恒汇 | 45.89 | +3.77 | 8.95% | 109.93亿 | | 688167 | 炬光科技 | 78.50 | +5.24 | 7.15% | 70.94亿 | | 603005 | 晶方科技 ...

大A超4400股上涨，跨境支付概念股掀涨停潮。 在美国对伊朗实施打击后，以色列股市高开，以色列TA-35指数涨1.53%，创下历史新高。 港、A股午后大反攻！主要指数全部翻红。 | | | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 稳定币 | 数字货币 | 跨境支付 | 金融科技 | 油气开采 | 网络安全 | | 8.40% | 5.81% | 4.87% | 4.58% | 3.60% | 3.59% | | 数据安全 | 财税数字化 | 钻矿 | 数字政府 | 智慧农业 | 大消费 | | 3.58% | 3.57% | 3.49% | 3.36% | -0.07% | -0.16% | | 电力股 | 中药 | 航空运输 | 水泥制造 | 光模块(CPO) | 品牌龙头 | | -0.17% | -0.25% | -0.25% | -0.42% | -0.62% | -0.76% | | 饮料制造 | | | | 白酒 | 昼 16 隆に | 1 半导体大反攻！又传出消息 今日港A股芯片和半导体设备股大反攻。 华虹半导体涨4% ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.39%, with over 4,400 stocks rising [1] Banking Sector - Bank stocks reached new highs, with major banks like ICBC, ABC, and CCB seeing significant price increases. ICBC's stock rose by 2.04%, marking six consecutive days of gains, with a total market capitalization of 2.68 trillion yuan [4][6] - Insurance capital has been actively increasing stakes in bank stocks, with 15 instances of stake increases this year. Major insurers involved include Ping An Life and China Life, driven by expectations of future returns and high dividend yields [6][7] Cross-Border Payment - The cross-border payment concept surged, with stocks like Sifang Jingchuang hitting a 20% limit up. The launch of the cross-border payment system on June 22 is expected to facilitate real-time remittances between mainland China and Hong Kong [9][11] - Morgan Stanley views the cross-border payment system as a mild benefit for financial stocks, predicting it will attract more liquidity to Hong Kong [11][12] Oil and Gas Sector - The Iranian parliament's approval to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz has led to a strong performance in the oil and gas sector, with stocks like Junyou and Beiken Energy seeing significant gains [15][17] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for global oil trade, and any disruption could lead to oil prices exceeding $120 per barrel [18] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor equipment sector saw strong gains, with companies like Zhongwei and Tuojing Technology rising over 4%. The potential withdrawal of exemptions for U.S. technology use by major semiconductor manufacturers has raised concerns but also highlighted opportunities for domestic companies [20][22] - Analysts predict a recovery in the semiconductor industry driven by AI demand and ongoing domestic substitution efforts, with positive revenue and profit growth expected in 2024 and early 2025 [23]

半导体再度传来大变数！ 今日早盘，港股半导体股走强，康特隆涨近8%，华虹半导体涨超6%，中芯国际涨近5%，晶门半导体、脑洞科 技大涨，宏光半导体涨近2%。A股半导体板块一度飙涨近2%。与此同时，韩国半导体板块早盘多数杀跌，三 星电子一度下跌2.7%，Wonik IPS跌4.2%，Hanmi Semiconductor跌3.8%。日本半导体板块亦大跳水。 那么，究竟发生了什么？据环球网消息，美媒日前放风称，美国商务部官员已通知台积电、三星等全球主要半 导体制造商，计划撤销能让这些公司在中国大陆使用美国技术的豁免。 中原证券认为，近年来外部环境对中国半导体产业限制不断加剧，随着美国"对等关税"政策落地，美国半导体 出口管制持续升级，半导体产业链卡脖子核心环节自主可控需求仍然迫切，国产替代有望加速推进。 半导体再迎变数 今日上午，外围就传出半导体板块的变数。韩国市场方面，三星电子一度下跌2.7%，Wonik IPS跌4.2%， Hanmi Semiconductor跌3.8%，DB Hitek跌3.2%，SK海力士跌2.5%。日本市场方面，Japan's Screen跌4.8%， Lasertec跌4.2%，Adv ...

Group 1 - Semiconductor equipment stocks are performing well, with notable increases in companies such as Zhongke Feicai (over 6%), Tuojing Technology (over 5%), and others [2] - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the semiconductor equipment market in the second half of the year, driven by the demand for advanced process logic and packaging due to generative AI [3][6] - In Q1 2025, global semiconductor capital expenditure reached $35.4 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from companies like TSMC and Micron [3] Group 2 - The forecast for capital expenditure by Chinese listed semiconductor manufacturing companies in 2025 is expected to decline by 7% to $14.1 billion, with an upward adjustment of 2% compared to previous estimates [6] - The overall semiconductor equipment market is projected to see a revenue increase, with a 24% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, reaching $35 billion [7] - The market share of Chinese companies is increasing, while American companies are experiencing a decline due to export restrictions, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [7][8]

Market Overview - The news of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered volatility in global financial markets [2] - On June 23, during the Asian trading session, NYMEX WTI crude oil opened with a surge, rising over 4% before narrowing its gains [2] Stock Market Performance - Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened with significant declines, with the South Korean KOSPI index dropping over 1.6% at one point, later reducing to a 1.14% decline [5] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell nearly 1% during the session, ultimately down 0.64% [6] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks in both Japan and South Korea experienced widespread declines, with Samsung Electronics dropping over 2.8% [8] - Other notable declines included Samsung SDI and Hanmi Semiconductor, both down over 4%, while SK Hynix fell over 3% [9][10] - Reports indicate that the U.S. Department of Commerce plans to revoke the blanket exemption allowing major semiconductor manufacturers, including TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix, to ship U.S. chip manufacturing equipment to their factories in China without individual licenses [11] Gold Market - Gold prices initially surged to $3,400 per ounce before experiencing a rapid decline [13] - Deutsche Bank suggests that the current geopolitical risk premium for gold may be a false signal, anticipating a potential rebound in risk premium in the coming weeks [13] - Citigroup analysts predict that gold prices will peak between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce in Q3 of this year, followed by a gradual decline to a range of $2,500 to $2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, marking the end of the current record rally [13]

Group 1 - The overall A-share market is expected to show a fluctuating upward trend in the second half of 2025, but attention should be paid to overseas uncertainties and the pace of domestic economic recovery [1][18] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has officially implemented guidelines for designated trading business [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.9%, with major Chinese stocks like JD.com and Baidu experiencing declines [6] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.08% and the Nasdaq down by 0.51% [4] - Major tech stocks showed divergence, with Google down 3.6% due to European antitrust investigations, while Apple rose by 2.2% [5] - The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index for June reported -4.0, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector [7] Group 3 - International oil prices weakened, with WTI crude oil down 0.28% to $74.93 per barrel, and Brent crude down 2.23% to $77.01 per barrel [8] - International gold prices faced downward pressure, with COMEX gold futures for June delivery down 0.64% to $3368.10 per ounce [9] Group 4 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is conducting a national quality supervision inspection of 164 products, with a total of over 16,000 batches to be sampled [10] - The National Medical Products Administration is implementing measures to support the innovation of high-end medical devices [11] - Ping An Life has increased its stake in China Merchants Bank H-shares for the third time, reaching 15% of the bank's H-share capital [17]

Investment Focus - The market has entered a second phase of broad consolidation, with heightened volatility risks in micro-caps, new consumption, and innovative pharma sectors [1][8] - The Hang Seng Index dropped 1.5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.0%, while A-shares also experienced declines [1][8] - Liquidity in the tech sector has been diverted towards innovative pharma and new consumption, but both sectors saw notable pullbacks this week [1][8] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The sustainability of rallies in new consumption and innovative pharma depends on continued HKD liquidity and steady southbound inflows [2][9] - Recent pullbacks in innovative pharma have increased the AH premium from a 10-year average of 136 to 139, indicating H-shares are underperforming A-shares [2][9] - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market is tightening, influenced by large IPOs and upcoming listings [2][9] Southbound Capital Flows - This week saw a net inflow of HKD 16.3 billion, but only HKD 4.2 billion flowed in during the last three trading days of market decline [3][10] - Significant selling pressure was observed in Pop Mart, with HKD 1.8 billion sold, nearly erasing the past month's inflows [3][10] - Southbound capital mainly flowed into banks, healthcare, and consumer services, with limited outflows in communication services [3][10] A-Shares Performance - The liquor index rebounded 2.7% this week, supported by favorable media commentary, but the overall downtrend remains unaltered [4][11] - The banking sector continued to perform well, rising 2.6%, which helped stabilize large-cap defensives [4][11] - Micro-caps fell 2.2%, underperforming the broader market but still remain at elevated levels [4][11] Market Outlook - The broad consolidation pattern in the market is expected to continue, with high-flying sectors like micro-caps, new consumption, and innovative pharma yet to fully deflate [4][12] - The expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period on July 9 may lead to renewed pressure from U.S.-China negotiations [4][12] - Investors are advised to wait for better entry points, particularly near 21,000 on the Hang Seng Index and 3,200 on the Shanghai Composite [4][12] Short-Term Market Sentiment - Recent U.S. military actions against Iran may extend market downward momentum early next week [5][13] - If the market declines to key support levels, a bottoming rebound may occur [5][13] - The tech sector, after sufficient pullback, is believed to hold stronger rebound potential, particularly in edge AI and application software [5][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including 德明利 (Demingli), 天孚通信 (Tianfu Communication), 新易盛 (Xinyi Sheng), and 太辰光 (Taicheng Light) [10][22]. Core Insights - Marvell emphasizes that customized computing will lead the AI chip revolution, with a significant increase in the projected total addressable market (TAM) for data centers from $75 billion to $94 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47% for custom XPU chips [5][20]. - DDR4 memory prices have surged nearly 8% in a single day, marking the largest daily increase in nearly a decade, driven by supply constraints and panic buying [8][21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electronic industry saw a 0.95% increase from June 16 to June 20, ranking third among sectors, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 49.86 [2][31]. - The semiconductor equipment and printed circuit board segments experienced the highest gains during this period [35]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - Marvell has secured 18 custom projects and is in discussions for over 50 more, with potential revenue scaling up to $75 billion [5][20]. - The report suggests focusing on AI computing-related stocks such as 胜宏科技 (Shenghong Technology), 沪电股份 (Hudian Co.), and 深南电路 (Shennan Circuit) [7][20]. DDR4 Memory Market Dynamics - The average price for DDR4 8Gb and 16Gb models increased by 7.8% and 7.9%, respectively, returning to early 2022 levels [8][21]. - The report anticipates that if major manufacturers continue to reduce DDR4 supply, high price volatility may become the new norm [8][21]. Key Companies and Valuation - The report includes a detailed table of key companies with their earnings per share (EPS) and P/E ratios, highlighting companies like 兆易创新 (Zhaoyi Innovation) and 源杰科技 (Yuanjie Technology) with "Buy" ratings [10][22].