Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining plans to invest approximately 28 billion RMB to acquire Allied Gold Corporation, marking the largest single acquisition in its overseas gold mining strategy [2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Zijin Mining's subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, signed an arrangement agreement to acquire all issued common shares of Allied Gold at a cash price of 44 CAD per share, totaling about 5.5 billion CAD (approximately 28 billion RMB) [3]. - The acquisition price represents a premium of approximately 5.39% over the closing price of 41.75 CAD per share on January 23, 2026, and an 18.95% premium over the weighted average trading price of 36.99 CAD per share over the previous 20 trading days [3]. - Allied Gold's core assets include the Sadiola gold mine in Mali, the Côte d'Ivoire gold complex, and the Kurmuk gold mine in Ethiopia, which is expected to commence production in the second half of 2026 [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - Allied Gold's gold production is projected to increase from 10.7 tons in 2023 to 25 tons by 2029, driven by the expansion of the Sadiola project and the commissioning of the Kurmuk project [5]. - Financially, Allied Gold's revenue for 2023, 2024, and the first three quarters of 2025 were 656 million USD, 730 million USD, and 904 million USD, respectively, with net profits of -192 million USD, -120 million USD, and 17 million USD [5]. - As of September 30, 2025, Allied Gold's net assets attributable to shareholders were 331 million USD [5]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to enhance Zijin Mining's resource synergy in Africa and optimize global resource allocation, with significant potential for exploration and resource expansion [4][6]. - The projects acquired are expected to contribute to production and profits in the acquisition year, with a short investment payback period anticipated [5]. Group 4: Market Context and Trends - The recent bull market in the non-ferrous sector and rising gold prices have created an expansion window for the industry, although companies are advised to proceed with caution [2][7]. - The ongoing increase in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and supply-demand imbalances in precious metals [10][11].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** sector, particularly the **metals** industry, highlighting a tight year for metals [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cement Production**: Expected output in December 2025 is projected at **144 million tons**, reflecting a **6.6% YoY decline**. The total output for 2025 is estimated at **1,693 million tons**, down **6.9% YoY** [6][6]. - **Finished Steel**: Anticipated output for December 2025 is **115 million tons**, with a **3.8% YoY decrease**. The total for 2025 is **1,446 million tons**, showing a **3.1% YoY increase** [6][6]. - **Crude Steel**: Projected output for December 2025 is **68 million tons**, down **10.3% YoY**, with a total of **961 million tons** for 2025, a **4.4% YoY decline** [6][6]. - **Aluminum Production**: December 2025 output is expected to be **4 million tons**, a **3.0% YoY increase**, with a total of **45 million tons** for 2025, reflecting a **2.4% YoY increase** [6][6]. - **Copper Production**: December 2025 output is projected at **440,000 tons**, down **21.4% YoY**, with a total of **5,320,000 tons** for 2025, a **6% YoY decline** [6][6]. - **Automobile Production**: December 2025 output is expected to be **3 million units**, down **2.8% YoY**, while total production for 2025 is projected at **35 million units**, up **9.8% YoY** [6][6]. - **Electricity Generation**: Expected to reach **859 billion KWh** in December 2025, with a **0.1% YoY increase** and a total of **9,716 billion KWh** for 2025, reflecting a **2.2% YoY increase** [6][6]. Policy Changes - The **2026 Trade-in Subsidy Policy** for automobiles will see a reduction in the first tranche of fund allocation from **Rmb 81 billion** in 2025 to **Rmb 62.5 billion** in 2026 [8][8]. - Subsidies for **New Energy Vehicles (NEVs)** will shift from a fixed amount to a percentage of the vehicle price, capped at **Rmb 20,000** [8][8]. Real Estate Market Insights - **Residential Sales Value**: Expected to decline to **Rmb 11,662 billion** in 2023, down **6.5% YoY**, with a recovery projected to **Rmb 14,997 billion** in 2025 [10][10]. - **New Residential Starts**: Anticipated to decrease to **1,989 million sqm** in 2024, with a further decline to **954 million sqm** in 2025 [10][10]. - **Average Selling Price**: Expected to stabilize around **Rmb 10,442 per sqm** in 2025, reflecting a **0.7% YoY increase** [10][10]. Additional Insights - The **mining sector** is projected to see a **5.4% YoY increase** in added value, while the **ferrous metals** sector is expected to grow by **0.7% YoY** [6][6]. - The **non-ferrous metals** sector is anticipated to grow by **4.8% YoY** [6][6]. - **Investment in Property**: Expected to decline significantly, with a total of **Rmb 420 billion** in 2025, down **36.8% YoY** [6][6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the metals and real estate sectors in China.

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a remarkable performance from the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which has surged over 35% in less than a month since the beginning of 2026, showcasing its strong momentum and dominance in the market [1][6]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index has outperformed other major non-ferrous indices, achieving a return of 159.49% since the beginning of 2025, compared to 145.36% for industrial non-ferrous, 141.56% for segmented non-ferrous, and 129.97% for non-ferrous metals overall [3]. - The index's unique "hardcore" compilation logic focuses on companies that own non-ferrous metal resources, allowing them to maximize profit margins during price increases, thus demonstrating higher profit elasticity compared to downstream sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Index Composition and Strategy - The index employs a balanced industry approach, covering all core metal categories such as copper, gold, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, while ensuring that the top three companies by market capitalization in each segment are included, which helps capture various metal price movements and diversifies risk [4]. - The index is concentrated on leading companies, with a maximum of 40 constituent stocks, where the top ten account for over 55% of the total weight, ensuring strong offensive capability and elasticity during market rallies [4][5]. Group 3: Key Metal Allocations - The index's composition is strategically aligned with national priorities and future industry trends, with copper (31.48%) benefiting from global energy transitions and AI infrastructure, gold (14.33%) serving as a hedge against currency fluctuations, and aluminum (11.56%) supporting green transitions in the automotive and construction sectors [5]. - Other metals like silver (0.75%), rare earths (9.97%), lithium (8.17%), and cobalt (5.69%) are also included, reflecting a comprehensive approach to capturing cyclical fluctuations and participating in industrial transformations [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market environment presents a historic opportunity for the non-ferrous sector, driven by monetary easing, supply-demand dynamics, and global order changes, making the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index and its corresponding ETF products an efficient and transparent tool for investors to gain exposure to leading companies in the upstream non-ferrous mining sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, several foreign public funds achieved significant excess returns, with clear positioning in technology growth and resource sectors, reflecting strong stock selection and allocation capabilities [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Foreign Public Funds - Multiple foreign public funds recorded impressive gains in 2025, with standout performances from products like BlackRock Advanced Manufacturing A, which rose 63.34%, and Robeco Resource Select A, which surged 97.28%, indicating strong grasp of structural market trends [3]. - The overall portfolio structure of these funds remains centered on manufacturing, while maintaining high attention to technology growth and resource opportunities [3]. Group 2: Specific Holdings and Strategies - BlackRock Advanced Manufacturing A focused heavily on manufacturing, with key technology stock positions in Q4 including Zhongji Xuchuang and Lixun Precision, leaning towards high-end manufacturing [3]. - Fidelity Low Carbon Growth A also prioritized manufacturing, with significant holdings in companies like Xinyi Solar and Shanghai Fudan, balancing low-carbon transition and technology growth [3]. - Robeco Resource Select A displayed a more diversified portfolio, investing in materials and mining sectors, with major positions in Zijin Mining and China Aluminum, highlighting a clear focus on commodities and related industries [3][4]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategic Adjustments - Foreign institutions are optimistic about the medium to long-term opportunities in resource sectors while making structural adjustments in technology investments, believing in the ongoing value reassessment of Chinese stocks amid economic transformation [6]. - Robeco Resource Select's manager expressed confidence in the resource sector, anticipating further market expansion in 2026, which will provide more options for portfolio allocation [6]. - Schroders China Power's managers indicated a strategy shift from high-expectation technology sectors to undervalued non-bank financials and chemicals, reflecting a rebalancing of their investment approach [6]. Group 4: Focus on Technology and Future Expectations - The AI sector's profit expectations have been revised upward, but stock performance remains subdued, leading to a cautious approach towards further investments in AI hardware while increasing exposure to application sectors and related supply chains [7]. - Allianz China Select's manager highlighted a sustained high equity position, focusing on quality technology assets as key drivers of value reassessment in Chinese stocks, with expectations for continued excess returns in 2026 [7].

高盛全球大宗商品研究团队在1月28日发布的报告中，显著上调了对黄金与铜两大关键金属的价格预 测，预计将直接驱动中国相关矿业企业的盈利预期系统性上修。报告指出，资源稀缺性溢价已实质性显 现。 据追风交易台，报告将2026年基准黄金目标价格上调10%-16%，预计当年均价可达4978美元/盎司；同 时将2026年LME铜价预测提升7%至12200美元/吨。基于上述价格调整，高盛相应将覆盖范围内的中国 铜与黄金企业2026-2027年盈利预测上调9%-33%。 研报强调，具备显著产量增长潜力的龙头企业将同时享受价格上行与产能扩张的双重红利，预计2026年 部分企业铜产量增幅可达9%-14%。从估值角度看，当前股价水平仍普遍反映较为保守的大宗商品价格 预期，若长期目标价位逐步兑现，当前板块估值具备明显安全边际与上行空间。 结构性配置推升金价，资金流入铸就铜稀缺溢价 高盛全球团队最新研究指出，大宗商品市场正步入结构性重估阶段，尤其体现在贵金属与工业金属领 域。 黄金方面，团队将2026年均价预测上调10%至4978美元/盎司，并将2027年上半年均价预测大幅调升16% 至5585美元/盎司。高盛分析指出，此前报告提示的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by monetary easing expectations and supply-demand tightness, highlighting significant investment opportunities in this space [3][5][8]. Group 1: Reasons for Price Increases - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen substantial price increases, with gold prices rising by 64% over the past year, indicating a strategic shift towards physical assets as the U.S. dollar weakens [5][6]. - Industrial metals like copper and tin have also surged, with copper prices increasing by 44% and tin by 43%, primarily due to declining inventories and rising demand from sectors like renewable energy and AI [6][8]. - The combination of anticipated monetary easing and tight supply-demand dynamics is expected to drive further price increases in commodities and stocks [8]. Group 2: Four Underlying Logics - The weakening U.S. dollar is expected to make metals more expensive, as the market anticipates further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [10][11]. - Supply constraints are significant, with global mining companies underinvesting in new projects, leading to longer lead times for new production [12][14]. - The demand from AI and renewable energy sectors is replacing traditional demand from real estate, creating a new engine for metal consumption [15][16]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, are elevating the strategic importance of key minerals, leading to increased trade barriers and price volatility [19][21]. Group 3: Key Investment Directions - Gold and silver are seen as anchors of value, with silver expected to benefit from both industrial demand and price corrections [22]. - Copper, aluminum, and tin are highlighted as essential industrial metals, with companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum positioned favorably due to supply-demand dynamics [23][24]. - Rare earths and minor metals are viewed as strategic assets, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous benefiting from supply chain advantages [25]. - Lithium is identified as a cyclical opportunity, with prices rebounding significantly, and companies like Ganfeng Lithium positioned to capitalize on this trend [25].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for 2026 to 2027 by 10% to 16%, expecting an average price of $4,978 per ounce in 2026 and $5,585 per ounce in the first half of 2027 [1] - The firm also increased its copper price forecast for 2026 by 7% to $12,200 per ton, leading to an upward revision of earnings forecasts for covered Chinese copper and gold mining stocks by 9% to 33% [1] - Preferred stocks include Zijin Mining (02899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), benefiting not only from rising commodity prices but also from simultaneous growth in copper and gold production [1] Group 2 - Zijin Mining's copper production is expected to grow by 9% to 14% in 2026, with both companies on track to meet their 2028 production targets, indicating a 40% to 45% increase compared to 2025 [1] - Zijin Mining's recurring profit forecast for 2026 to 2027 was raised by 14% to 18%, with target prices adjusted to HKD 52 for H-shares and RMB 50 for A-shares, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum's recurring profit forecast for 2026 to 2027 was increased by 20% to 24%, with target prices set at HKD 27 for H-shares and RMB 28 for A-shares, also maintaining a "Buy" rating [2]

该行上调紫金矿业2026至2027年经常性盈利预测14%至18%，紫金矿业H股目标价由39.5港元升至52港 元，紫金矿业A股(601899.SH)目标价由38元升至50元人民币，维持"买入"评级。 同时，该行上调洛阳钼业2026至2027年经常性盈利预测20%至24%，洛阳钼业H股目标价由21.5港元升 至27港元，洛阳钼业A股(603993.SH)目标价由21.5元升至28元人民币，亦维持"买入"评级。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，将2026至2027年金价预测上调10%至16%，料2026年均价为每盎 司4,978美元，2027年上半年为每盎司5,585美元。该行同时调升2026年铜价预测7%至每吨12,200美元。 因此，该行上调其覆盖的中国铜业及金矿股2026至2027年的盈利预测，幅度介乎9%至33%，首选股份 为紫金矿业(02899)及洛阳钼业(03993)，因其不单止受惠于商品价格上升，其铜及黄金产量亦将同步增 长。 该行预期紫金矿业及洛阳钼业2026年铜产量将增长9%至14%。根据目前的项目进度，两间公司均有望 达成2028年产量目标，意味着届时产量较2025年增长40%至45%。在 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for 2026 to 2027 by 10% to 16%, with an average price of $4,978 per ounce in 2026 and $5,585 per ounce in the first half of 2027 [1] - The firm has also increased its copper price forecast for 2026 by 7% to $12,200 per ton [1] - As a result, Goldman Sachs has upgraded its earnings forecasts for Chinese copper and gold mining stocks for 2026 to 2027 by 9% to 33%, with Zijin Mining (02899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) as preferred stocks due to their expected production growth alongside rising commodity prices [1] Group 2 - Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are expected to see copper production growth of 9% to 14% in 2026, with both companies on track to meet their 2028 production targets, indicating a 40% to 45% increase in production compared to 2025 [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its recurring earnings forecast for Zijin Mining for 2026 to 2027 by 14% to 18%, with target prices for Zijin Mining H-shares increased from HKD 39.5 to HKD 52 and A-shares from CNY 38 to CNY 50, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Similarly, the recurring earnings forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum for 2026 to 2027 has been increased by 20% to 24%, with target prices for Luoyang Molybdenum H-shares raised from HKD 21.5 to HKD 27 and A-shares from CNY 21.5 to CNY 28, also maintaining a "Buy" rating [2]

截至2026年1月29日 14:27，有色金属ETF(512400)一度涨超4%，现涨2.35%，盘中换手12.52%，成交 57.37亿元，市场交投活跃。跟踪指数中证申万有色金属指数成分股铜陵有色上涨10.06%，西部黄金上 涨10.01%，湖南黄金上涨10.01%，云南铜业，盛和资源等个股跟涨。 有色金属ETF(512400)，场外联接(A类：004432；C类：004433)。 2025年全年金价涨幅达67%，创近年新高，主要驱动力来自央行持续购金、美元走弱、关税与贸易风险 上升以及强劲的期权市场活动；其中，新兴市场央行正加速减持美债、增持黄金，波兰央行已批准150 吨黄金采购计划。展望2026年，世界黄金协会指出，尽管短期或受波动率上行影响出现宽幅调整，但中 长期黄金走势仍将由结构性因素主导，包括地缘冲突常态化、美联储政策独立性受质疑及全球货币体系 信任重构等核心逻辑未变。 1月29日午后，金、银、铜全线大涨，现货黄金强势逼近5600美元关口，再创新高。白银连续主力合约 日内触及涨停，沪铜主力合约突破11万元/吨，日内涨幅达8%，同样创历史新高。 有色金属ETF(512400)紧密跟踪中证申万有色金属 ...