营收下滑，净利腰斩……素有手机行业"非洲之王"美称的传音控股，交出了一份堪称惨淡的年度答卷。 1月末，传音控股发布2025年年度业绩预告，披露了这份不尽人意的成绩单：公司年内预计实现营业收 入约655.68亿元，较上年同期减少31.47亿元，同比下降4.58%；归属于母公司股东的净利润约25.46亿 元，同比大幅下滑54.11%，较上年同期减少约30.03亿元，扣非净利润跌幅更是达到58.06%。 业绩大幅下滑背后，既有2025年贯穿全年的存储芯片涨价潮带来的供应链成本重压，也有非洲本土乃至 全球新兴市场的竞争加剧与拓展困境——前者让其利润空间被持续挤压，后者则让其核心市场基本盘承 压，曾经在新兴市场顺风顺水的传音，如今正被多重难题裹挟，前行脚步愈发沉重。 与此同时，资本市场的表现也未能给予传音更多支撑。为谋求补血，传音正在赴港布局A+H上市途 中，但其A股股价较历史峰值已蒸发大半。 资深产业经济观察家梁振鹏在接受北京商报记者采访时表示，传音的核心挑战在于维持硬件市场份额的 同时开拓新增长曲线。 但从现状看，旨在走出困境的突围之战愈发凶险，传音的未来依旧充满未知。 01.重压之下的一年 2025年的寒意，从一 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：招商证券策略研究 展望2月，市场在未来一段时间将会以震荡为主，节后指数有望强于节前。在业绩预告披露结束后，市 场阶段性会围绕商业航天、AI算力及应用等主题进行交易，同时由于涨价的扩散，市场也会继续在以 石油石化、建材、钢铁、化工、白酒等涨价领域进行阶段性交易。但是在缺少净增量的环境下，轮动可 能会加速，交易难度进一步提升。整体风格也有望相对均衡，风格轮动也可能会加快。 核心观点 ⚑大势研判和核心逻辑：展望2月，在前期监管释放降温信号和ETF大幅流出后，市场在未来一段时间 将会以震荡为主。今年2月有春节长假，春节长假之前，由于有长假期缺少明确的催化剂，预计市场活 跃度会进一步下降。春节之后，由于临近两会召开，政策催化将会加速出现，春节之后指数有望有更好 的表现。基本面层面，1-2月是数据真空期，从目前来看，产业端的边际变化带来的业绩改善趋势仍然 是市场关注的方向。顺周期涨价品种，半导体光模块为代表的AI链依然是景气趋势之所在。政策层 面，由于2026年是逢六逢一的五年规划第一年，也是 ...

Market Overview - The major indices showed mixed performance with the ChiNext Index up by 1.27%, the STAR Market 50 Index up by 0.12%, while the North Exchange 50 Index down by 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.66%, and the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.96% [1] - The TMT sector led the gains with SW Communication Cables and Accessories up by 6.11%, SW Communication Network Equipment and Devices up by 4.91%, and SW Film and Animation Production up by 2.16% [1] - Conversely, the TMT sector also saw declines with SW Horizontal General Software down by 2.68%, SW Vertical Application Software down by 2.37%, and SW Brand Consumer Electronics down by 2.15% [1] Domestic News - In the semiconductor materials and processes sector, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) announced it will stop accepting orders by Q2 2026, focusing on core technologies like memory and power management [2] - Tianjin New Unisplendour's new computing architecture project has begun chip production, with expected annual shipments reaching thousands of chips and a projected sales scale of 500 million to 1 billion yuan by 2027 [2] - Yintai Technology plans to acquire 100% of Guanglong Integrated and Aojian Microelectronics to enhance its semiconductor industry chain and accelerate its IDM transformation [2] - Meixin Sheng's acquisition of Xinyan Microelectronics aims to enter the magnetic sensor field, enhancing its technology system for environmental perception and multi-modal sensing [2] Overseas News - STMicroelectronics reported a sales increase in Q4 due to rising demand for chips in personal electronics, communication devices, and industrial machinery, although automotive sector performance was below expectations [3] - Counterpoint Research forecasts Apple's Q4 2025 revenue to grow by 16% to $144 billion, driven by a strong iPhone upgrade cycle, with iPhone revenue up by 23% [3] - Texas Instruments expects significant growth in the data center market, with annual revenue projected at $1.5 billion, a 64% year-on-year increase, driven by cloud computing and AI server demand [3] - Kioxia and SanDisk extended their joint venture agreement for the Yokkaichi plant for five more years, committing to the development of 3D flash memory technology [3] AI Insights - Kunlun Wanwei launched the open-source SkyReels-V3, achieving advanced visual quality and instruction adherence in a unified multi-modal context learning framework [4] - Apple completed the acquisition of Israeli AI audio startup Q.ai, which specializes in detecting facial micro-movements for emotion and health monitoring [4] - Samsung confirmed the launch of next-generation AR glasses in 2026, integrating multi-dimensional interaction methods [4] - MiniMax released the Music2.5 music generation model, supporting various music styles and providing AI-assisted tools for music creation [4] Industry Tracking - The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation successfully tested a 240-ton reusable rocket engine, achieving international leading performance [5] - Yushut Technology released the open-source UnifoLM-VLA-0 model aimed at humanoid robot operations, enhancing physical interaction capabilities [5] - Gestalt Technology signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Fourier to advance brain-computer interface technologies [5] - Beidi New Materials' polymer film manufacturing project has achieved mass production, aligning with national new materials strategy [5] Earnings Forecast - Zhongke Feimeasure expects 2025 revenue between 1.95 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 41.27% to 55.75% [6] - Obi Optical anticipates 2025 revenue of 940 million yuan, a 66.53% increase, with a net profit of 123 million yuan [7] - Jiangfeng Electronics forecasts a net profit of 431 million to 511 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% to 27.5% [7] - Xinyi Sheng expects a net profit between 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan for 2025, a significant increase of 231.24% to 248.86% [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - Apple's revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 reached $143.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with net profit at $42.10 billion, also up 16%. Earnings per share rose by 19% to $2.84 [7]. - iPhone revenue, as a key growth driver, amounted to $85.27 billion, reflecting a 23% year-on-year growth and accounting for 59.3% of total revenue. Service revenue was $30.01 billion, up 14%, while iPad revenue grew by 6% to $8.60 billion. However, Mac revenue declined by 7% to $8.39 billion, and wearables, home, and accessories revenue fell by 2% to $11.49 billion [7]. - In the Greater China region, revenue reached $25.53 billion, marking a significant 38% year-on-year increase, while the Americas and Europe saw revenue growth of 11% and 13%, respectively [7]. Market Outlook - Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 2% in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units. The top five smartphone manufacturers in terms of shipments are Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo, and OPPO, with respective shipments of 241 million (up 7%), 239 million (up 7%), 165 million (down 2%), 105 million (up 4%), and 101 million (down 3%) [7]. - For 2026, due to rising DRAM prices, the cost of smartphone Bill of Materials (BoM) is expected to increase by approximately 25% for low-end models, 15% for mid-range, and 10% for high-end models, with a potential further increase of 10%-15% by the second quarter of 2026. Consequently, global smartphone shipments are anticipated to decline by 2.1% year-on-year [7]. - The average selling price of smartphones is expected to rise by 6.9% in 2026 due to cost pass-through and product mix adjustments [7]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term pressures from rising storage costs are noted, but emerging products such as foldable phones, AI smartphones, and AI glasses present new growth opportunities for the industry. Companies to watch include Luxshare Precision, Lixun Precision, GoerTek, Lens Technology, and Xinwei Communication [7].

需求恢复不及预期的风险；AIGC 进展不及预期的风险；外部制裁进一步升级的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力硬件、苹果产业链及自主可控受益产业链。Meta 2026 年全年资本开支指引超预 期，闪迪 2026 第三财季业绩指引超预期。我们继续看好覆铜板及存储芯片涨价趋势，具有较强的持续性，从产 业链公司陆续公布的营收及利润来看，业绩在持续兑现，继续看好核心受益公司。继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力 硬件、苹果产业链及自主可控受益产业链。 细分行业景气指标：消费电子（稳健向上）、PCB（加速向上）、半导体芯片（稳健向上）、半导体代工/设备/材料 /零部件（稳健向上）、显示（底部企稳）、被动元件（稳健向上）、封测（稳健向上）。 北美大厂 AI 开支超预期，存储业绩持续爆发。Meta 预计 2026 年全年资本支出在 1150 亿至 1350 亿美元之间， 主要用于数据中心、服务器和网络基础设施，较 25 年的约 700 亿美元 CAPEX 实现显著增长。我们看到 AI 对 meta 自身业务实现了积极帮助，AI 改进了推荐算法，直接导致用户在平台上的停留时间增加，新的序列学 ...

Core Insights - The smartphone industry is experiencing a significant downturn in expected shipments for 2026, with major manufacturers like Xiaomi and OPPO reducing their forecasts by over 20% [1][2] - The decline in shipments is primarily attributed to rising storage chip prices and supply shortages, leading to a strategic shift towards higher-value products [2][6] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the global smartphone shipment reached 1.26 billion units, with a 1.9% year-on-year growth, while China's market saw a slight decline of 0.6% [3] - Huawei regained its position as the leading smartphone manufacturer in China with a shipment of 46.7 million units, capturing a market share of 16.4% [3] - Apple and Vivo closely followed Huawei, with shipments of 46.2 million and 46.1 million units, respectively, indicating a highly competitive landscape [3][4] Group 2: Market Challenges - The price of storage chips is expected to rise significantly, with a projected increase of 40% to 50% in Q1 2026, further impacting manufacturers' cost structures [6][8] - The cost increase is particularly pronounced in low-end models, which may deter price-sensitive consumers from upgrading their devices [7][8] Group 3: Future Trends - The integration of AI into smartphones is anticipated to be a major trend, with new AI-enabled smartphone shipments expected to reach 147 million units in China, accounting for over 50% of the market [9] - The development and application of 2nm chips are also on the horizon, promising enhanced performance and efficiency for future smartphones [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquid metal industry [12] Core Insights - Apple, as a leader in consumer electronics innovation, has over 1 billion high-end device users, and the anticipated launch of its foldable phone is expected to drive significant sales. The adoption of liquid metal hinges could set a strong precedent for Android brands, potentially leading to a new growth phase for the liquid metal industry [3][18] Summary by Sections What is Liquid Metal - Liquid metal, also known as amorphous alloy, differs from traditional metals in atomic arrangement, exhibiting a non-crystalline state with short-range order and long-range disorder, often referred to as "metal glass" [6][22] Applications of Liquid Metal - Liquid metal is categorized by application into aerospace and military, power electronics, consumer electronics, medical, and sports sectors. The industry is expected to expand as applications mature. It includes various types such as iron-based, iron-nickel-based, cobalt-based amorphous alloys, and more [7][33] Trends in Liquid Metal for Foldable Screens - Currently, liquid metal is primarily used in the hinges of foldable phones. The complexity of hinge structures has led to the use of liquid metal, MIM, and carbon fiber solutions. Notable examples include Huawei's Mate XT and MateBook Fold, which utilize liquid metal in their hinge designs [8][45] Perspectives on Different Manufacturing Processes for Foldable Phones - Hinge design and manufacturing involve high technical barriers, with various processes like MIM and CNC being utilized. Liquid metal's high strength and excellent forming capabilities meet the demands for hinge thickness, strength, and precision, making it suitable for foldable screens [9][50] Future Market Potential for Liquid Metal - Assuming a global annual shipment of 330 million high-end phones, with a 25% penetration rate for foldable screens and an average selling price of $10 for liquid metal hinges, the market size for liquid metal hinges could reach $620 million. The potential for expansion into foldable PCs and tablets is also significant [10][66]

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 今年1月份，韩国出口额首次突破600亿美元大关。根据贸易、工业和资源部1日公布的2026年1月进 出口趋势报告，上月出口额达663亿美元，创下历年1月最高纪录。 与去年同期相比，这一数字增长了33.9%。与去年同期相比，这已连续八个月保持增长。经工作日调 整后的日均出口额也比去年1月增长了14%，达到28亿美元。 存储器业务收入总计 44 万亿韩元（310 亿美元），高于去年同期的 30.1 万亿韩元（210 亿美元） 和第三季度的 33.1 万亿韩元（230 亿美元）。存储器业务的营业利润为 16.4 万亿韩元（115 亿美 元），是 2024 年第四季度的六倍。 这两家公司主导着HBM市场，HBM是英伟达和其他AI GPU供应商所需的高级芯片。据Counterpoint Research的数据显示，SK海力士 在第三季度占据了57% 的市场份额。 具体而言，上月15大主要出口商品中有13项出口额增长。值得注意的是，半导体出口额达到205亿美 元，较去年1月增长103%。这一增长主要得益于DRAM固定价格的回升，以及人工智能（AI）普及 背景下对高价值存储半导 ...

在特朗普看来，美元就像一个可以上下拉动的溜溜球。但在股票投资者眼中，这个玩具似乎已经坏了， 美元走弱正成为他们给股票估值时不得不面对的最新障碍。 这种权衡并不简单，因为美元下跌对美国股票市场而言并非绝对毒药。出口商更容易找到买家，跨国公 司也将受益于更强劲的海外收入。 来源：环球市场播报 但弊端同样存在。美国资产的吸引力下降，资金流入美国公司的速度放缓，部分资金转而流向国际市 场。美国制造商为海外生产的投入品支付的成本上升，可能"进口"通胀，推高国内销售的终端产品价 格。 特朗普坚称自己并不担心美元走势，无论其近期如何下滑。这一表态令外汇交易员感到不安，并最终促 使财政部长斯科特·贝森特重申华盛顿长期以来支持强美元的政策立场。美元周五创自5月以来最大涨 幅，但即便如此，其水平仍明显低于一年前，这对股票交易员而言影响不小。 "美元走弱对美国股票市场整体而言是净利空，"Northlight Asset Management首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli 表示。 他预计投资者将重新调整投资组合，增加对出口导向型美股的配置。这并非没有道理：自4月8日市场触 底以来，巴克莱一篮子受益于美元走弱的公司股价已飙 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, recommending investment in AI computing, cloud vendors, AI applications, and AI social directions [5]. Core Insights - The AI industry chain is accelerating across the board, with upstream storage continuing to show high prosperity. ClawdBot (now renamed Moltbot) is reshaping the agent experience, and cloud vendors are entering the ROI assessment phase [2][5]. - ClawdBot demonstrates three innovations: 1) Permission breakthrough allowing AI models to be deployed on local edge hardware with root access, ensuring user data remains local; 2) Proactive interaction, running 24/7 and notifying users of specific events; 3) UI restructuring, integrating into frequently used messaging apps to lower usage barriers [5][8]. - The capital investment of SaaS companies is transitioning into the ROI assessment phase, with Meta's AI-driven advertising business exceeding expectations, projecting Q1 2026 revenue between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26% to 34% [9][5]. - Storage continues to thrive, with SanDisk reporting an adjusted EPS of $6.20 for Q4 2025, a 404% increase year-on-year, significantly above market expectations [10][5]. Summary by Sections AI Computing and Cloud Vendors - The report highlights the significant demand for cloud computing resources driven by ClawdBot's operational needs, predicting exponential growth in token consumption and cloud computing requirements [5][8]. - Major cloud service providers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are expected to benefit from this shift, especially as they transition from CapEx-driven pricing to ROI assessment [9][5]. AI Applications - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications, particularly in advertising and content generation, with Meta's AI tools achieving an annual revenue scale of $10 billion [9][5]. - Microsoft’s Azure revenue is projected to grow by 38% year-on-year, with M365 Copilot paid seats increasing by 160% [9][5]. Storage Sector - NAND and DRAM sectors are highlighted for their robust performance, with SanDisk and SK Hynix reporting significant profit increases and strong demand forecasts for AI-related storage solutions [10][5]. - Samsung anticipates a threefold increase in HBM revenue by 2026, indicating the critical role of storage in AI architecture [10][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment: NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, and Broadcom in the computing sector; Microsoft, Amazon, and Google in cloud services; and Apple, Qualcomm, Lenovo, and Tesla in AI applications [27][28].