Capital.com高级市场分析师凯尔·罗达表示："特朗普周末对欧洲国家加征关税，并加大力度胁迫以吞并 格陵兰岛，导致人们对美国失去信任。黄金价格的波动反映了人们对全球地缘政治紧张局势的担 忧。""显然，投资者正在抛售美元，抛售美债，尤其是长期国债，转而买入黄金，因为目前市场对黄金 的信心高于对美元的信心。" A股市场黄金概念股午后进一步拉升，其中，白银有色、国城矿业、四川黄金、中国瑞林、湖南白银、 招金黄金涨停，南矿集团涨超8%，西部黄金、赤峰黄金涨超7%，豫光金铅、晓程科技、中金黄金涨超 6%，株冶集团、山金国际、盛达资源、鹏欣资源涨超5%。 受避险需求和美元走软的提振，金价飙升至每盎司4870.96美元的历史新高。美国总统特朗普对格陵兰 岛的觊觎可能会引发与欧洲的贸易战，并可能动摇北约。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 息市值 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601212 | 白银有色 | 1 | 10.01 | 635亿 | 46.50 | | 000688 | 国城矿业 | 10 | 10.01 | 331亿 | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower but rebounded strongly, with technology stocks leading the gains. The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index surged over 4%, surpassing 1500 points, marking a two-and-a-half-month high. The ChiNext index also climbed back above 3300 points, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Component, and Northbound 50 experienced significant upward movements. However, overall market trading volume showed a declining trend [2]. Chip Sector - The chip sector continues to thrive, with various sub-sectors such as automotive chips, advanced packaging, storage chips, and MCU chips reaching historical highs. Notably, Longxin Zhongke (688047) hit a 20% limit up within just six minutes of opening, while Jianghua Micro also achieved a limit up for the third consecutive day [3]. - Storage chip prices have been on the rise since September 2025, with DDR5 memory prices increasing over 300%, and the price of a single 256GB DDR5 server memory module exceeding 40,000 yuan. This year, the price of storage chips is accelerating upward [5]. - Morgan Stanley predicts a potential 50% price increase for traditional DDR4 memory in Q1, while Citigroup forecasts an 88% year-on-year increase in average DRAM prices by 2026. NAND Flash prices are also expected to rise significantly, with predictions of a 20%-30% increase for NOR Flash and over 50% for MLC and SLC NAND [6]. Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw a significant rise, with the index climbing over 5% to reach a historical high. Notable stocks include Hunan Silver, which has surged 97.11% this year, and other companies like Zhaojin Mining and Sichuan Gold also showing strong gains [7]. - The Hong Kong gold sector experienced similar gains, with Lingbao Gold rising over 10% and trading volume nearly doubling compared to the previous day. U.S. gold stocks also saw substantial increases, with Iamgold soaring over 15%, marking a 14-year high [9]. - The price of gold has reached a historical high of $4,846 per ounce, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion. UBS anticipates that gold prices will continue to rise in the first half of the year, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce if concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve persist [9].

1月21日，A股早盘震荡反弹，科创50指数大涨近3%，科技股集体反弹，半日成交额1.63万亿，较上个 交易日缩量2169亿。截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.16%，深成指涨0.76%，创业板指涨0.85%。 华西证券认为，监管层逆周期调节政策是避免'快牛''疯牛'的重要手段，并不能改变A股牛市趋势，而 是有助于行情走的更远。广发证券也表示，指数未来1个月不存在风险，且待1月下旬年报预告阶段性靴 子落地后，有望迎来一年当中'日历效应'最强的上涨区间，因此重点看好春节前一周到三月中旬的市场 机会。 点评：消息面上，现货黄金站上4800美元/盎司大关。现货白银首次向上站上95美元/盎司，今年以来累 计上涨33%。二者继续刷新记录新高。。国泰海通证券认为，地缘政治剧变背景下黄金具备较强韧性与 避险属性，建议超配黄金。 3、锂矿概念反弹 锂矿概念震荡反弹，盛新锂能、大中矿业涨停、天华新能、永兴材料、中矿资源、融捷股份涨幅靠前。 点评：消息面上，广期所碳酸锂主力合约日内涨超5%，一度突破16.4万元/吨。中邮证券指出，AI推动 数据中心规模爆发式增长，AI数据中心功率极高且波动大，需配置储能来平滑电网冲击，同时作为备 用电源支撑 ...

早盘A股三大指数低开高走，截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.16%，报4120.1点，深成指涨0.76%，报14263.2点，创业板指涨0.85%，报3306点，科创50指 数涨2.96%，报1526.83点。沪深两市合计成交额16309.65亿元，全市场近2900只个股上涨。 国际黄金期货价格和现货价格均再创新高，突破每盎司4800美元。多家品牌金饰价已逼近1500元，其中，周生生足金饰品报1495元/克，较1月20日 1454元/克涨41元/克。老凤祥足金饰品报1498元/克，较1月20日1456元/克涨42元/克。老庙黄金足金饰品报1493元/克，较1月20日1455元/克涨38元/ 克。 小金属板块走强，中钨高新、章源钨业、厦门钨业盘中创新高，翔鹭钨业、宝武镁业、云南锗业跟涨。有分析称在全球进入降息周期、美元走 弱、需求复苏、地缘风险等多重因素影响下，有色金属战略价值与经济价值迎来共振，2026年板块景气持续性有望超预期。 板块题材上，黄金、有色金属、CPO、半导体、机器人、盐湖提锂、6G概念股涨幅居前；白酒、煤炭、零售、旅游及酒店、电力、机场航运、电 网设备板块跌幅居前。 黄金概念股持续走高，晓程科技盘中创新 ...

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a widespread decline, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.1% and erasing all gains for the year[3] - The Dow Jones fell by 1.8%, closing at 48,488.6 points, while the Nasdaq dropped 2.4% to 22,954.3 points[8] Commodity and Forex - Oil prices rose due to supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude oil increasing by 1.51% to $60.34 per barrel[26] - Gold prices surged past $4,700 per ounce, closing at $4,765.8, marking a 3.71% increase[26] - The US Dollar Index fell 0.8% to 98.64, dropping below the 99 level for the first time in two weeks[26] Fixed Income - Japanese government bonds faced significant selling pressure, with 30-year yields rising over 25 basis points[28] - US Treasury yields increased by 1-8 basis points, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.29%[28] Banking Sector Insights - Over 40 trillion in long-term deposits are expected to face yield gaps by 2026, potentially leading to outflows[6] - The shift in deposits is likely to favor short-term products and smaller banks, with a portion moving to wealth management and insurance products[6] Individual Stock Highlights - JD.com projected a revenue of 350.4 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of only 1.0%[9] - Anta Sports is expected to face pressure on profit margins due to increased marketing costs for upcoming events[13]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and outlook of various metals, particularly gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony, indicating a mixed market with some upward momentum in precious metals and cautious recovery in base metals [2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices showed strong upward momentum, with London gold prices reaching $4,611.05 per ounce, an increase of $117.20 per ounce from the previous week, marking a rise of 2.59% [2]. - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, which may influence gold prices further [4]. Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices experienced a slight decline, with LME copper closing at $12,925 per ton, down $65 per ton, a decrease of 0.50% [5]. - Domestic copper inventory increased, with SHFE copper inventory at 213,515 tons, up 4,600 tons from the previous week [5]. - Aluminum prices also saw a minor decrease, with domestic electrolytic aluminum priced at 24,000 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan [7]. - The operating rate for domestic copper rod production increased significantly, indicating a recovery in downstream demand [7]. Group 3: Tin and Antimony - Tin prices are expected to remain stable at high levels, with domestic refined tin prices at 414,640 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,639.40 yuan [8]. - Antimony demand has improved, leading to a price rebound, with domestic antimony ingot prices rising [9]. Group 4: Investment Ratings and Recommendations - The copper industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to ongoing tightness in copper supply [10]. - The aluminum industry also holds a "recommended" investment rating, supported by rigid supply conditions [11]. - Tin and antimony industries are rated as "recommended" as well, with tight supply supporting tin prices and a rebound in antimony prices after a decline [11]. - Key stock recommendations include companies in the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, such as Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Gold [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400), which has seen a rise of over 2% and is currently up 1.88%, indicating a potential three-day consecutive increase in trading volume [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF has experienced continuous net inflows for 12 days, supported by a recent action plan from Shanghai to enhance the linkage between futures and spot markets for non-ferrous metals, aiming to expand the market's international influence [2] - The global macroeconomic outlook is improving, with the IMF raising the 2026 global growth forecast to 3.3%, which is expected to support the prices of precious metals and boost sentiment for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] Group 2 - The tungsten market is experiencing a strong upward trend in both price and volume, with tungsten powder prices reaching historical highs due to tight supply and strong demand driven by the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF closely tracks the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index, which includes 50 listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in the market [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index include major companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth, indicating a concentration of market influence among leading firms [3]

黄金股票ETF基金紧密跟踪中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数从内地与香港 市场中，选取50只市值较大且业务涉及黄金采掘、冶炼、销售的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映内 地与香港市场中黄金产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿 业、山东黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、招金矿业、山金国际、山东黄金、紫金矿业、紫金黄金国际、湖 南黄金，前十大权重股合计占比63.58%。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 截至2026年1月21日 10:40，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)强势上涨3.09%，成分股湖南白银上 涨10.00%，白银有色上涨9.76%，招金黄金上涨7.85%，四川黄金，豫光金铅等个股跟涨。黄金股票 ETF基金(159322)上涨2.58%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报2.03元。 消息面上，现货黄金站上4820美元/盎司，再创新高，日内涨1.2%。波兰央行周二表示，该行已批准一 项购买多达150吨黄金的计划，这将使该国的黄金储备增加到700吨。 瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Tev ...

国际黄金期货价格和现货价格均再创新高，突破每盎司4800美元。 1月21日，黄金概念股持续走高，晓程科技盘中创新高，湖南白银、卧龙新能涨停，四川黄金、招金黄 金涨超7%，山东黄金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金等跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 张幅� | 总金额 | 总市值 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002716 湖南白银 | | +10.00% | 39.59 Z | 385.1 乙 | 13.64 | | 600173 | 卧龙新能 | +9.94% | 2.67 乙 | 54.99 7 | 7.85 | | 601212 白银有色 | | +9.76% | 27.34 Z | 633.1 乙 | 8.55 | | 000688 | 国城矿业 | +9.14% | 6.67 乙 | 328.3 Z | 27.71 | | 001337 | 四川黄金 | +7.64% | 10.96 Z | 179.8 Z | 42.84 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | +7.34% | 12.53 Z | 175.2 Z | 18.86 | | 300139 ...

宏观对话行业：地缘扰动下的周期品走势 20260120 摘要 美国战略重心转向美洲，强化"新门罗主义"，引发市场对地缘政治风 险的担忧，尤其是在委内瑞拉的军事行动和对格陵兰岛资源的争夺，可 能加剧国际紧张局势。 中国通过稀土、大豆等资源应对美国的技术封锁，提升了市场对其国家 治理能力的信心。同时，中国可深化"一带一路"倡议，以应对美国在 西半球的影响，并提升出口韧性。 中国出口目的地结构发生变化，对墨西哥出口贡献转负，但欧洲和非洲 国家成为新的增长点，新兴经济体的工业化需求支撑了中国出口韧性， 应淡化对美国市场需求的研究。 地缘政治扰动下，有色金属板块存在投资机会，包括类货币金属（如黄 金）和科技金属。黄金受益于去美元化和地缘政治紧张，科技金属受益 于 AI 和电能改造等新兴需求。 建议关注供给脆弱性叠加需求扩张周期的科技金属，如锡，其价格预计 将超过 50 万元以上，推荐阿尔法表现突出的企业，如新银锡、华锡有 色等。 Q&A 过去几年地缘政治局势的变化对全球市场产生了哪些影响？2026 年有哪些潜 在的风险点需要投资者关注？ 过去几年，尤其是 2025 年以来，地缘政治局势对全球市场产生了显著影响。 202 ...