Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.41 points, up 0.87%, while the liquor sector saw a slight increase of 0.27% to 2223.20 points, despite 14 liquor stocks declining [2] - Major liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe all experienced price drops, with Kweichow Moutai closing at 1466.80 CNY per share, down 1.25% [2] Group 2 - Guosheng Securities reported a robust recovery in the 2026 Spring Festival season, highlighting structural repair and significant downward pressure on leading brands, with "Moutai and Wuliangye" sales exceeding expectations and showing year-on-year growth [3] - The demand landscape indicates a recovery in high-end gifting and casual drinking, while business banquets and group purchases remain under pressure; high-end and real estate liquor are the main sales drivers, with mid-range liquor sales slowing [3] - The supply side shows liquor companies exploring diversified business models and innovative marketing strategies for the Spring Festival, increasingly embracing social media and focusing on "ready-to-drink" and "instant" consumption scenarios [3]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector experienced a strong start during the Spring Festival, with significant growth in consumption demand, particularly in services and travel, despite some weaknesses in the film box office [3][6][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The leading consumer ETF (159928) initially rose over 1% but later fell by 0.64%, with a trading volume exceeding 360 million yuan and a net subscription of 24 million shares during the day [1]. - The consumer ETF's latest scale surpassed 22.3 billion yuan, maintaining a leading position among its peers [1]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival saw a notable increase in travel and service consumption, with a record number of cross-regional movements expected to reach 9.5 billion people, marking a historical high [6][7]. - Restaurant bookings for the New Year's Eve dinner increased by 105% year-on-year, with significant growth in demand from lower-tier cities [7]. - The demand for pre-packaged food is accelerating, driven by new national standards and retail channel transformations [8]. Group 3: Alcohol Consumption Insights - High-end liquor brands, particularly Moutai, showed better-than-expected performance, with sales expected to increase by 10-20% year-on-year during January and February [9][10]. - The overall liquor market is experiencing a recovery, with high-end brands gaining market share while lower-tier brands face challenges [10]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Environment - The government is implementing zero-tariff measures for 53 African countries and enhancing support for rural enterprises to access multi-level capital markets [3]. - The market is expected to see a positive start post-Spring Festival, with historical trends indicating a strong "Spring Festival effect" in A-shares [3].

（原标题：泸州老窖集团等于深圳成立投资合伙企业） 企查查APP显示，近日，深圳市金骏润湾六号投资合伙企业（有限合伙）成立，出资额4.6亿元，经营范围包含：以自有资金从事投资活动；企业 管理；企业管理咨询；财务咨询。企查查股权穿透显示，该企业由泸州老窖集团有限责任公司旗下深圳市金高壹号投资合伙企业（有限合伙）等 共同出资。 ...

与高端市场的火热形成呼应的是大众价格带的繁荣。走访时，北京商报记者发现，泸州老窖六年窖龄 酒、海之蓝等300元以下白酒产品也成为消费者追捧的热销产品。方庄附近的烟酒店店员表示："春节期 间高端白酒产品销量亮眼的同时，大众酒销量也在稳步提升。家庭自饮场景下消费者多选择大众酒，进 一步推动了该价格带动销提升，这与我们年前的预判一致。" 随着9天"加长版"假期落下帷幕，白酒旺季消费也逐渐告一段落。今年春节期间，白酒消费市场呈现出 清晰的"哑铃型"分化结构。2月24日，北京商报记者走访北京部分终端市场并结合春节期间调研发现， 高端酒与大众酒两端需求升温，次高端价位却陷入"冰河期"，这一格局的形成，是消费场景深度重构的 集中体现。如今，当春节旺季的喧嚣散去，白酒行业如何在接下来的消费淡季中"弯道超车"，成为所有 从业者必须直面的课题。 高端与大众的"崛起" 在白酒传统消费周期中，春节假期既将行业消费旺季推向小高潮，也预示着淡季的到来。在2026年春节 期间，白酒消费在旺季小高潮中，呈现出明显的分化发展。这种分化不再是简单的品牌此消彼长，而是 沿着价格带形成了清晰的断层。 北京商报记者走访终端发现，春节期间，茅台、五粮液 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a downturn in demand, particularly for the 2026 Spring Festival, but high-end liquor prices have stabilized, driven by Moutai's influence [1][6]. Market Overview - Despite concerns about the 2026 Spring Festival being the "coldest" for the white liquor market, several institutions are optimistic about a rebound in the second half of 2026 [1]. - The overall demand for white liquor has declined compared to previous years, with many retailers adopting a wait-and-see approach for the current market [1][7]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer habits have shifted towards more rational spending, with a decrease in the number of tables and guests at banquets, now typically not exceeding eight people [2]. - E-commerce has diverted some traditional offline demand, allowing consumers to purchase liquor quickly even during the Spring Festival [1]. Price Trends - High-end liquor prices, particularly for Moutai, have stabilized, with the wholesale price of Moutai remaining around 1,700 RMB per bottle, up approximately 150 RMB from the end of 2025 [6]. - Other premium brands like Wuliangye and Fenjiu have also shown price stabilization, indicating a potential recovery in the high-end market [6]. Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a "two extremes hot, middle cold" situation, where products priced between 100-200 RMB and above 800 RMB are performing well, while mid-range products face pressure [7]. - The core products of leading liquor companies are selling well, but the profit margins for these products are limited, indicating a complex market situation [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the high-end liquor market's stabilization is a sign of industry recovery, although the market is still in a fragile state [7][8]. - The recovery of business banquets and the overall economic environment will be crucial for supporting high-end consumption in the future [8].

白酒六省渠道调研要点20260222 春节动销总结： 整体符合预期，分化延续：#高端动销表现突出，茅台、五粮液多地同比增长，价格坚挺；中低端品牌部分地区承 压，去库存为主。 #区域间有所分化，宴席需求带动头部品牌增长，节后库存水平整体可控。 ■ 四川：春节期间白酒动销分化，茅台、五粮动销较好，千元标杆价格下探至800元，#整体动销超去年，市场表 现喜人。 白酒六省渠道调研要点20260222 春节动销总结： 整体符合预期，分化延续：#高端动销表现突出，茅台、五粮液多地同比增长，价格坚挺；中低端品牌部分地区承 压，去库存为主。 #区域间有所分化，宴席需求带动头部品牌增长，节后库存水平整体可控。 ■ 四川：春节期间白酒动销分化，茅台、五粮动销较好，千元标杆价格下探至800元，#整体动销超去年，市场表 现喜人。 主流品牌如水井坊、舍得、红花郎等中低端动销持平或偏弱，库存去化进度较快。 ■ 江苏：茅台、五粮液动销高效，销售计划基本完成，节前招商推动分销进度。 五粮液终端限价严格，批价760-795元，分销政策灵活。 #整体动销好于去年，部分产品供货节奏加快。 ■ 河南：节前茅台动销积极，库存去化明显，#动销同比增长约 ...

国泰海通证券訾猛团队表示：白酒行业已进入本轮周期底部，渠道情绪已观察到修复迹象，景气改善、 批价上涨、库存去化等边际变化以及宏观政策对股价有较强催化。 投资工具方面，头部白酒企业股价单价较高，一手动辄万元，可借道食品饮料ETF(515170.SH)低门槛布 局，一手仅百元左右。食品饮料ETF(515170.SH)被动跟踪中证细分食品主题指数，估值低于近十年94% 以上时间，高性价比投资价值突出，持仓透明、风格不漂移，相比纯酒类ETF，剔除尾部出清风险的酒 企，更加聚焦一二线白酒龙头如贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖（000568）、洋河股份（002304）等。 A股马年首个交易日，吃喝板块承压，贵州茅台（600519）、五粮液（000858）等头部酒企股价小幅调 整。2026年春节假期消费数据显示：总量增长，结构分化。假期前四天，春运人员流动创纪录，全国重 点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额较2025年同期增长8.6%，连续四年实现增长。 其中，白酒大盘动销仍承压、下滑幅度预计较2025年中秋国庆及2025年四季度有所收窄，品牌间的分化 程度较2025年进一步扩大，高端白酒茅台、五粮液以及腰部以下各价位带龙头继续引领，与其 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 信心逐步企稳 白酒春节渠道跟踪报告 消费品/食品饮料 本篇报告重点反馈河南、江苏、四川、山东、安徽等地白酒渠道春节动销情况， 综合来看，26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑），各价格带分 化延续，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端有一定压力。政商务延续承压， 大众消费场景需求提振显著、占比持续提升。除茅台、五粮液等强势品牌外， 多数品牌不再要求开门红，节后库存低于去年同期，渠道压力继续释放，叠加 费用兑付周期加快，经销商与终端信心逐步企稳。价格侧考虑到茅台供需具备 支撑，其他多品牌价格调整接近触底、26 年不再强压任务，后续淡季下探空间 有限，春节后行业配置建议精选强势头部品牌与动销超预期品种。 ❑ 26 年春节动销符合预期、品牌分化延续、渠道信心逐步企稳。 1）行业整体动销方面：26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑）， 分价格带来看，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端具有一定压力。分消费 场景来看，政商务需求仍然承压，家庭消费与个人聚饮等大众消费需求明显 提振，占比持续提升，悦己属性不断强化。 2）任务执行进度方面：当前除 ...

白酒春节反馈总结：关注高端及大众价位超预期表现 大众价位带（今世缘等）则受益于#超长假期走亲访友及大众聚饮宴席需求的爆发。 茅台：#动销量超预期，春节飞天线下渠道动销增长20%，考虑i茅台投放增长超30%，主因春节期间#个人消费群 体对散茅的需求爆发（往年茅台备货节前大部分提前完成）。 预计1-2月茅台任务完成度将达45%（比往年快10个点），一季度达50%，将压力前置。 当前库存几乎为零，为后续批价坚挺提供基础，但由于非标系列缩量明显（同比下滑20-30%），需关注后续酒厂 供给端调整。 总体情况：量的层面预计动销整体下滑10%左右，考虑价格因素下滑15-20%，略好于预期，其中高端及大众价位 带表现较优。 具体来看，高端（茅、五）#降价后需求弹性凸显，激发了大众消费热度，相应弥补政商场景的缺失，此外#禁酒 令压制的礼赠需求也在春节有一定释放。 大众价位带（今世缘等）则受益于#超长假期走亲访友及大众聚饮宴席需求的爆发。 白酒春节反馈总结：关注高端及大众价位超预期表现 总体情况：量的层面预计动销整体下滑10%左右，考虑价格因素下滑15-20%，略好于预期，其中高端及大众价位 带表现较优。 具体来看，高端（茅、 ...

| 指数 涨跌 (%) | | --- | | 名称 | | 上证指数 4082 -1.26 -1.37 0.41 | | 深证综指 2680 -1.05 0.16 1.16 | | 风格指数 (%) | | | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 11.32 | | 中盘指数 1.78 | 26.74 | | 小盘指数 | 19.55 | | 涨幅居前 行业(%) | 昨日 | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 摩托车及其 114 | 3.01 | -2.59 | 2.47 | | 影视院线 | 2.7 | 15.61 | 28.26 | | 海小 | 2.5 | 1.64 | 11.89 | | 综合II | 2.06 | 11.75 | 55.72 | | 航海装备Ⅱ | 1.87 | 3.91 | -0.69 | | 跌幅居卸 行业(%) | | 昨日 近１个月 近６个月 | | | 玻璃玻纤 | -4.69 | 30.4 | 65.53 | | 工业金属 | -3.82 | 0.19 | ୧୦ ବଟ | | 小尖属工 | -3.8 | 12.8 ...