#东方财富港股点评（2026-02-03） 2月3日，恒生科技指数早盘一度跌超4%，腾讯、快手等权重股集体下挫，港股互联网科技板块大幅调整，引 发市场对行情持续性的担忧 港股互联网科技为何突发大跌？ 一是美联储政策预期收紧，美元走强预期升温，鹰派人士提名引发美债收益率上行，外资主导下港股科技股估值 承压； 二是市场传闻引发对互联网盈利能力持续性担忧，引发恐慌抛售； 三 #东方财富港股点评（2026-02-03） 2月3日，恒生科技指数早盘一度跌超4%，腾讯、快手等权重股集体下挫，港股互联网科技板块大幅调整，引 发市场对行情持续性的担忧 港股互联网科技为何突发大跌？ 一是美联储政策预期收紧，美元走强预期升温，鹰派人士提名引发美债收益率上行，外资主导下港股科技股估值 承压； 我们在年度策略中持续强调，2026年美国货币财政双宽，景气确定性大部分由外需主导，再现25年上半年的弱美 元趋势概率较低，对港股流动性整体形成压制，港股上行动力更多需期待AI应用和自主可控的技术突破带来预期 景气的上行。 此外，港股作为离岸市场，资金面受全球资本流向影响显著，定价权部分由外资主导，当全球风险偏好快速下行 时，易受外部流动性及情 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The telecommunications industry is facing a change in the value-added tax (VAT) rate, with the tax rate increasing from 6% to 9% for certain services, which will impact company revenues and profits [1][2]. - Concerns have been raised regarding whether the financial and internet sectors will also face similar VAT rate increases [2][3]. Key Points on Tax Policy - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced that only mobile data, SMS, MMS, and broadband access services will be reclassified from "value-added telecommunications services" (6% VAT) to "basic telecommunications services" (9% VAT) by 2026 [2][3]. - Internet value-added services, such as gaming and advertising, will maintain a stable VAT rate of 6%, with no indications of an increase [4]. Positive Outlook on Chinese Internet Companies - **Alibaba (9988.HK)**: - Strong potential for the Qianwen App due to its robust model capabilities and extensive business ecosystem, positioning it well for the AI era [4]. - As one of the largest cloud service providers in the Asia-Pacific region, Alibaba is expected to maintain high growth in cloud business driven by AI demand [4]. - The self-developed AI chip "Zhenwu 810E" enhances the training and inference efficiency of the Qwen model [4]. - Improvement in instant retail user experience (UE) is noted. - Target price set at HKD 200 for Alibaba, with a "Buy" rating reaffirmed [4]. - **Tencent Holdings (0700.HK)**: - Active in AI initiatives, including intensive recruitment of high-end AI talent and the launch of "Yuanbao" with a distribution of 1 billion cash rewards [4]. - Tencent's vast user base in the WeChat ecosystem allows for better AI user experiences through enhanced data quality and model optimization [4]. - Target price set at HKD 767 for Tencent, with a "Buy" rating reaffirmed [5]. - **Kuaishou (1024.HK)**: - Expected revenue for Kuaishou AI in 2025 is projected to reach USD 140 million, significantly exceeding the target of USD 60 million [5]. - The Kuaishou 2.6 model ranks among the top in the ArtificialAnalysis video model rankings, with the upcoming Kuaishou 3.0 expected to enhance productivity tool attributes [5]. - The OneRec and OneSearch features are designed to improve recommendation and search efficiency in e-commerce scenarios [5]. - Target price set at HKD 94 for Kuaishou, with a "Buy" rating reaffirmed [5]. Additional Insights - The reclassification of telecommunications services is a clear policy direction that does not affect internet value-added services, which may provide a competitive advantage for companies in the internet sector [3][4]. - The focus on AI capabilities and enhancements in user experience across major internet companies indicates a strong trend towards leveraging technology for growth and market positioning [4][5].

Market Overview - On February 3, 2026, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower due to a shift towards cyclical and value stocks, a new wave of AI replacement risks, and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran[2] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,835, down 0.22% for the day but up 4.70% year-to-date[3] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.84%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 1.43%[3] Technology Sector Impact - Major tech stocks experienced significant declines, with Nvidia down 2.84%, Microsoft down 2.87%, and Meta down 2.08% due to fears of AI replacing software services[12] - AI data analytics company Palantir saw a 6.85% increase in stock price after reporting a 70% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $1.41 billion for Q4 2025[12] Commodity and Resource Stocks - Gold prices surged, with spot gold rising nearly 6% to over $4,900 per ounce, while silver prices jumped 10% to $87.21 per ounce[9] - Resource stocks performed well, with Southern Copper rising 11.74% and Energy Fuels increasing by 16.56% amid rising commodity prices[12] Corporate Developments - China National Building Material saw an 8.51% increase after BlackRock raised its stake, reflecting long-term confidence despite a profit warning[9] - AMD's Q4 2025 revenue and EPS showed strong double-digit growth, but its Q1 2026 revenue guidance fell short of market expectations, leading to a 7% drop in after-hours trading[15]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index experienced volatility, initially rising over 300 points before dropping due to concerns over potential increases in value-added tax for technology stocks, ultimately closing up 59 points or 0.22% at 26,834 points [3][4] - The total market turnover for the day was 335.15 billion [3] Group 2: Technology Sector Concerns - Concerns arose regarding the increase in value-added tax for telecommunications services, leading to significant declines in major tech stocks such as Tencent, which fell 2.9% to 581 HKD, and Kuaishou, which dropped 4.6% to 73.45 HKD [4][9] - The adjustment of the value-added tax rate from 6% to 9% for telecommunications services has raised fears that similar increases may affect other sectors, particularly internet value-added services [9] Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - Citi's report indicates that gold prices are expected to decline, with a potential drop to 3,000 USD per ounce in a bear market scenario, while the baseline scenario predicts a decrease to 4,000 USD by 2027 [7][8] - Current gold prices have reached extreme levels, with the annual expenditure on gold as a percentage of GDP rising to 0.7%, the highest in 55 years, indicating a disconnection from the mining industry's marginal production costs [7] Group 4: Company News - Gilead Sciences announced a placement of 69.256 million new shares at a price of 12.18 HKD per share, raising approximately 844 million HKD, with 90% of the proceeds allocated for clinical trials of a new obesity treatment [11] - Cloud Wisdom plans to issue 1.008 million new H shares at a price of 310 HKD per share, raising approximately 312 million HKD, with proceeds aimed at enhancing its core technology capabilities [12] - Huatai Securities intends to issue 10 billion HKD in zero-coupon convertible bonds to support overseas business development and operational funding [14]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,835, up 0.22% for the day and up 4.70% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,068, up 1.29% for the day and up 2.49% year-to-date [1] - The US markets saw declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.34% and the S&P 500 down 0.84% [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 0.99% with a year-to-date increase of 7.80% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index increased by 1.65%, showing a year-to-date growth of 14.84% [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.07%, with a year-to-date decline of 0.88% [1][2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market rebounded, with materials, industrials, and defense sectors leading gains, while information technology and telecommunications sectors declined [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 952 million, with Tencent, China Mobile, and Xiaomi being the top net buyers [3] - Concerns over potential VAT increases on financial and internet services led to declines in internet platform stocks, although these rumors were debunked by experts [3] Aluminum Industry Analysis - The global supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain tight until 2026, supporting higher aluminum prices, projected to increase by 15% year-on-year [4] - China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization is nearing saturation, with a forecasted capacity limit of 45 million tons by December 2025 [4] - The report initiates coverage on Innovation Industries (2788 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 32, citing cost advantages from green energy and expansion in Saudi Arabia [7] Insurance Industry Insights - The insurance sector in China is projected to see premium income growth, with life insurance premiums expected to reach CNY 3.56 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [5] - December saw a recovery in premium income, with life insurance premiums growing by 10.1% year-on-year [5] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance sector, recommending stocks like China Ping An (2318 HK) and AIA Group (1299 HK) with target prices of HKD 90 and HKD 89, respectively [7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,835 points, up 0.2%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed at 9,053 points, down 0.3%[1] - Total turnover in the Hong Kong stock market was HKD 335.2 billion, a decrease of 3.7% from the previous day's HKD 347.9 billion[1] - Sector performance varied, with materials, conglomerates, and industrial indices rising by 4.4%, 2.9%, and 2.8% respectively, while information technology, consumer discretionary, and telecommunications fell by 1.7%, 0.6%, and 0.1% respectively[1] Stock Performance - Leading blue-chip stocks included CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) and New Oriental (9901 HK), which rose by 8.1% and 6.4% respectively[1] - Kuaishou (1024 HK) and Baidu Group (9888 HK) were among the biggest losers, falling by 4.6% and 3.6% respectively[1] Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector is projected to see China National Heavy Duty Truck Group's total sales reach 450,000 units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25%[4] - The company expects to maintain a 39% market share, with heavy truck sales exceeding 300,000 units, leading global sales rankings[4] - The new energy heavy truck segment is anticipated to grow explosively, with a year-on-year increase of 230% expected in 2025[4] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector saw significant gains, with Insilico Medicine (3696 HK) surging 14.5% after announcing a milestone payment of HKD 39 million for a clinical trial[5] - The total collaboration agreement for the project is valued at USD 550 million, indicating potential for further milestone revenues as trials progress[5] Macro Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's retail sales in December 2025 increased by 6.6% year-on-year, slightly higher than the 6.5% increase in November[3] - South Korea's January CPI rose by 2.0%, lower than the 2.3% in December and below market expectations of 2.1%[3]

港股明星科网股连日走低，BOSS直聘(02076.HK)跌超3%，携程集团-S(09961.HK)跌超2%，哔哩哔哩 (09626.HK)、腾讯控股(00700.HK)、快手(01024.HK)、美团(03690.HK)、百度(09888.HK)、阿里巴巴 (09988.HK)等个股跟跌。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.80% [3][4] - The Hong Kong market also opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.14% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.87% [5][6] Sector Performance - The storage chip sector experienced significant declines, with companies like Deep Kangjia A hitting the daily limit down, and others such as Puran, Lanke Technology, Baiwei Storage, and Shannon Chip also opening lower [2] - The AI computing power industry chain saw a downturn, particularly in the storage and CPO sectors, while semiconductor and consumer electronics themes were among the hardest hit [4] - Conversely, gold, basic metals, and oil and gas sectors showed signs of rebound [4]

科网股多数走低，美团、快手、腾讯控股、携程集团、华虹半导体、哔哩哔哩、百度集团均跌超1%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 - | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美团-W | 91.500 | -1.700 | -1.82% | | 快手-W | 72.150 | -1.300 | -1.77% | | 携程集团-S | 476.600 | -8.200 | -1.69% | | 金蝶国际 | 12.450 | -0.210 | -1.66% | | 腾讯控股 | 572.000 | -9.000 | -1.55% | | 零跑汽车 | 39.000 | -0.600 | -1.52% | | 华虹米音体 | 106.300 | -1.400 | -1.30% | | 比亚迪股份 | 88.900 | -1.100 | -1.22% | | 哔哩哔哩-W | 250.000 | -3.000 | -1.19% | | 百度集团-SW | 139.900 | -1.500 | -1.06% | | 阿里巴巴-W | 159.400 | -1.600 | -0.99% | | ...

（免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。） 编辑|金冥羽 杜波 校对|段炼 2月4日，上证指数低开0.08%，创业板指跌0.8%。AI算力产业链走低，存储器、CPO方向领跌；半导体、消费电子题材跌幅靠前。黄金、基本金属、油气 板块反弹。 每经记者｜黄胜 每经编辑｜金冥羽 央行今日开展750亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平。因今日有3775亿元7天期逆回购到期，实现净回笼3025亿元。 记者|黄胜 中信证券研报称，回顾2026年1月央行政策表述，预期管理优先级或更高。鉴于降准成本低于扩表类工具，在净息差收窄、预计年中政府债发行压力较大 背景下，为保证银行承接，我们预计26Q2降准概率大。结构性降息落地后，总量降息节奏更关注通胀，我们预计2026年通胀分化、上半年偏弱且整体低 于下半年。债市短期看情绪、中期看货币、长期看通胀，或偏强震荡至春节，节后关注两会变量，长期利率存在上行风险。 港股低开，恒生指数低开0.14%，恒生科技指数跌0.87%。紫金矿业涨逾2%，中国海洋石油涨近2%。科网股多数走低，美团、快手、腾讯控股、携程集 团、华虹半导体跌幅靠 ...