编辑 | 邢昀 元老们回归掌控阿里，定下了AI和电商两大战略方向，目前这两个方向已经形成了一个清晰的交汇 点：奶茶。 文 | 豹变 张经纬 前有2025年夏天，淘宝闪购在外卖大战中，靠几块钱甚至免单的奶茶/咖啡，从美团、京东手中抢外卖 份额。后有千问APP在春节撒币30亿，邀请全国人民免费喝奶茶，为AI造势。 根据阿里2月6日的战报，红包发出后，9小时内千问订单超1000万，其中绝大多数是奶茶/咖啡。看起 来，阿里试图复制闪购的经验，在AI用户争夺战中后来居上。 不管是近场电商的争夺战，还是培育AI用户，阿里的抓手都离不开奶茶，这场以奶茶为武器的豪赌前 路如何？真能帮千问在用户心中扎根吗？ 01 "我是马云，给我点一杯奶茶" 从用户的反应来看，发券的效果是明显的：2月6日这天一大早，各路人马就开始在各个群里转发口令， 之后点奶茶的人太多，千问和运力就都扛不住了。 在朋友圈和小红书，很多人都在吐槽千问崩了。同样崩了的还有阿里的股价，开盘下跌4%，经过一天 的动荡后以3%的跌幅收盘。而港股茶饮股大多应声而涨，古茗涨幅3.58%，股价创上市以来新高，茶百 道收盘涨超6%，沪上阿姨、蜜雪冰城也有不同程度的上涨。 阿里 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese new tea beverage market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with the growth rate dropping from 24.9% (2017-2022) to 6.4% in 2024, indicating a shift from expansion to competition in a saturated market [4][34][37] - The market is projected to reach a size of 3547.2 billion yuan in 2024, with growth rates stabilizing between 5%-7% in the first three quarters of 2025, marking the transition to a phase of stock competition [4][37] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a concentration of market share among leading brands, with smaller brands struggling to survive [5][49] Group 1: Industry Trends - The new tea beverage industry has officially transitioned from a high-growth phase to a period of meticulous management and profitability focus, moving away from rapid store openings and population growth [4][34] - The number of new tea beverage stores opened in the past year was 118,000, while 157,000 closed, resulting in a net decrease of 39,000 stores, highlighting the intense competition and market saturation [5][47] - The health trend in the industry is deepening, with the use of sugar substitutes in milk tea reaching 61.3%, and the application of plant-based ingredients increasing from 18.9% in 2024 to 26.4% in 2025 [7] Group 2: Brand Dynamics - Leading brands like Mixue Ice City and Bawang Chaji are expanding rapidly, with Mixue Ice City surpassing 53,000 global stores and Bawang Chaji increasing to 7,038 stores, reflecting a trend of head brand concentration [5][44] - Mid-tier brands are facing significant challenges, with companies like Nayuki's Tea reporting a revenue decline of 4.7% and a net loss of 919 million yuan in 2024 [6][49] - The market is witnessing a "one super, many strong" structure, with Mixue Ice City holding a dominant position and other brands like Bawang Chaji and Gu Ming rapidly gaining ground [55] Group 3: Market Strategies - Brands are increasingly focusing on emotional marketing, with Bawang Chaji positioning itself as a solution for emotional needs among young consumers [10] - The exploration of overseas markets has become a core strategy for leading brands, with Bawang Chaji's overseas GMV exceeding 300 million yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 75.3% year-on-year growth [8] - The industry is shifting towards value competition, moving away from price wars, as brands like Xicha announce a return to user and brand focus, halting low-price competition [14] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - The rise of the "one-person economy" is driving demand for smaller, high-quality products, as consumers prefer moderate consumption over large quantities [25][26] - The focus on seasonal products has become a fixed rhythm, with multiple brands launching offerings based on seasonal fruits, indicating a trend towards timely innovation [22] - The consumer landscape is stabilizing, with shopping and afternoon tea becoming dominant consumption scenarios, limiting the expansion of new consumption contexts [38]

时代踩下油门和刹车，远比想象中来得更快。 2019年，阿浪在湖北省一个县级市加盟了第一家蜜雪冰城，全年营业额干到150多万，"抛去成本也有的 赚"。彼时，新茶饮市场正以每年超30%的增速狂飙，蜜雪冰城的门店刚突破7000家，尚处于拓荒年 代。特别是在下沉市场，仍有大片空白。 2020年，武汉疫情解封，阿浪看准空置门店和低租金的窗口期，逆势连开几家蜜雪冰城，完成原始积 累。他前后加盟20多家茶饮门店，成了茶饮"圈地运动"的受益者。 2024年初，他又陆续加盟了茶百道、古茗和塔斯汀等，但发现游戏规则已变。此时，全国茶饮门店突破 50万家，市场从"增量竞争"彻底转为"存量厮杀"；蜜雪冰城门店数已达3.3万家，古茗突破9000家，茶 百道也冲刺到近8000家。 "2025年下半年，依然没有一家回本，开始亏钱。"阿浪告诉亿邦动力，"古茗投了60万，好的时候月净 利润4万多。但是受季节影响大，冬天基本不赚钱。熬不住，回本周期太长，最后30多万兑出去了。" "投资回报比不值得，不想干了。"2026年，他倾向于把店面全部兑出去。硬币的另一面，现在仍有许多 人排队加盟蜜雪冰城，或者在找店。但在阿浪眼里，那已是别人想象中的红利。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant surge in orders for a milk tea brand, leading to system crashes during a promotional event, highlighting the challenges of scaling AI-driven marketing efforts [1][2][3] Group 1: Event Overview - On February 6, a promotional event led to over 2 million orders within two hours, causing system overload and temporary shutdowns of delivery services [2][3] - The event was characterized by a lack of clear communication to merchants and delivery personnel, resulting in confusion and operational chaos [3][4] Group 2: Technical Challenges - The system crash was attributed to insufficient server capacity to handle the high volume of concurrent requests, exacerbated by the complexity of AI processing [2][5] - The initial server capacity was only one-third of the estimated peak demand, leading to a failure in scaling up resources in time [2][5] Group 3: Marketing Strategy - The promotional strategy involved significant financial incentives, with a reported budget of 30 billion yuan for user acquisition and engagement [4][8] - The marketing approach aimed to create a "super entry point" for consumers by integrating various Alibaba services, including Taobao and Hema, into the AI platform [3][4] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The urgency of the promotional event was partly a response to competitive pressures from other companies, such as Tencent, which had announced substantial cash incentives for users [7][8] - The article notes that the marketing tactics employed are reminiscent of traditional methods in the Chinese internet landscape, focusing on immediate user engagement rather than long-term brand loyalty [4][11] Group 5: Future Implications - The success of the promotional event raises questions about the sustainability of user engagement once the incentives are removed, as the long-term adoption of AI shopping remains uncertain [11][12] - The article suggests that while AI can enhance efficiency in specific scenarios, it still struggles to fully understand and predict consumer behavior, which may limit its effectiveness as a shopping assistant [12][13]

Group 1 - The launch of the 30 billion yuan subsidy project by Alibaba's Qianwen App is expected to benefit the sales of ready-to-drink beverages [2][3] - The first wave of the subsidy activity runs from February 6 to 12, offering users a 25 yuan no-threshold free order card, which can be used at over 300,000 tea and coffee shops nationwide [2] - The second wave starting February 13 will allow users to receive cash red envelopes, with a maximum of 2888 yuan available [2] Group 2 - The activity has seen significant engagement, with over 1 million orders placed within 3 hours and over 10 million orders within 9 hours of launch [3] - The current trend indicates a high level of activity in the ready-to-drink beverage market during the Spring Festival, with ongoing subsidies for delivery services [3] - The competitive landscape in the beverage industry is improving, with a slowdown in price wars and a reduction in the number of new stores opening [4] Group 3 - Recommended companies in the beverage sector include Gu Ming (01364), Mixue Group (02097), Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US), Cha Bai Dao (02555), and Hu Shang A Yi (02589) [5]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.09 千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋缓 [Table_Industry] 餐饮 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 现制饮品行业跟踪报告 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读： 现制饮品外卖补贴持续，预计春节高景气度；同时行业价格战趋缓，竞争格局优化。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 餐饮《餐饮引领复苏，产业链协同发展》 2024.03.31 投资要点： 研 究 报 告 证 券 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：现制饮品外卖补贴持续，预计春节高景气度；同时行业 价格战趋缓，竞争格局优化。推荐：古茗、蜜雪集团、瑞幸咖 ...

从 内 地 政 策 实 践 展 望 2026 年 施 策 重 点 股 票 环球市场动态 周五 A 股震荡小幅下跌，化工股延 续强势；港股集体下跌，科技股继 续承压；欧洲股市上涨，市场情绪 在消化宏观消息后有所回暖；美股 大幅反弹，道指首次突破 5 万点， 科技股获得大量逢低买盘。 外 汇 / 商 品 伊朗称核谈判是好开始，但市场忧 虑谈判未能降低冲突风险，周五油 价先跌后翻红。美元指数偏软，以 及市场对美伊会谈的忧虑，支持金 价回升。 固 定 收 益 上周五美股及贵金属市场回暖，美 债获利回吐。密歇根大学消费者信 心意外升至半年新高。高市早苗取 得历史性选举胜利，日本国债收益 率上涨。本周将有非农及 CPI数据， 和美债标售。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2026 年 2 月 9 日 恩智浦 (NXPI US; 224.32 美元; 目标价: 257 美元) 汽车市场缓慢复苏。公司 2025 年四季度当季汽车 市场营收以及毛利率略低于预期，引起市场对于复苏节奏的担忧。然而，公司指出过去 90 天积压订单、分销库存等 内部信号均 ...

本文转自【新闻晨报】； 2月6日，一位外卖小哥打翻奶茶的视频，让不少网友感到心疼。 视频里，装奶茶的纸箱倒在地上，多杯奶茶从纸箱中摔出，液体混着珍珠、椰果洒了一地，外卖小哥显得无奈又沮丧。"我听到他打 电话给顾客，告知顾客刚才人多不小心洒了奶茶，希望可以给他一次机会，他马上返回奶茶店重新自费下单购买。"视频发布者称。 视频截图 视频发布两天，获网友58万点赞，11万次转发。2月8日，视频发布者告诉记者，事发于2月6日下午，地点位于福建莆田。 从视频可以看出，外卖小哥配送的是古茗奶茶。8日，莆田一位古茗奶茶的工作人员告诉记者，当时外卖小哥配送了32杯奶茶，结果 全洒了。后来小哥回门店决定重新订购，门店工作人员了解情况后，帮他用更便宜的方式下了单。再后来公司了解情况后，帮外卖 小哥承担下了这批饮品的费用，而且也给外卖小哥补了配送费，目前事情已经圆满结束。 记者注意到，古茗官方也通过社交账号回应称，得知这起事件后，已找到了这位骑手小哥，没有让骑手小哥承担损失。同时对于包 装，后续也将进行优化。 来源 | 极目新闻 ...

大家早上好！这里是今天的早报，每天早上，我都会在这里跟你聊聊昨夜今晨发生了哪些大事儿。 昨夜今晨 【马斯克：是时候大规模重返月球了】 北京时间2月8日，马斯克发帖表示，是时候大规模重返月球了。 此外，有消息称SpaceX正在奥斯汀和西雅图招聘工程师，以开发人工智能卫星和太空数据中心。马斯克转发 相关帖子并回复称：是真的。 此前，据央视财经2025年12月28日报道，美国航天局新任局长贾里德·艾萨克曼上任来首次公开发言，表示美 国将在特朗普第二个任期内重返月球。具体行动包括建立空间数据中心和基础设施，以及在月球上开采氦的同 位素氦-3等。而在建立"月球基地"之后，美国航天局将考虑投资核能与核动力推进，以实现进一步探索。 目前，美国航天局正与美国太空探索技术公司、蓝色起源以及波音公司等就"阿耳忒弥斯"的相关发射任务进行 合作。 【三星将率先量产HBM4：抢下AI存储的"下一张门票"】 三星电子将在农历新年假期后率先启动全球首次HBM4大规模量产和出货，这款面向人工智能芯片的新一代高 带宽存储器性能居行业之首。此举标志着三星试图在新一代AI存储市场确立主导地位，并弥补上一代产品的 市场失地。 据行业消息人士透露，三 ...

2026年的春节还没来,AI圈掀起的红包大战已经打得一片火热。如果说元宝前几天发的海量红包戳中的 是父母辈的心,那随后千问则用一杯奶茶让全国的年轻人嗨翻了朋友圈。 "下载千问App,复制这个链接,送25元的券,可以帮你下单,免费喝奶茶。"微信群、朋友圈大家互相奔走相 告,不停转发,这热烈的势头,和前几天元宝送红包相比不相上下。实打实的25元代金券换购的一杯奶茶,似 乎比元宝现金红包的力度还要大。 同样嗨起来的,还有奶茶店员和外卖小哥。这场景让人恍惚回到了去年外卖大战时。 记者 孙佳琪 报道 千问接力元宝 AI圈掀起红包大战 本次活动分两次进行,第一波2月6日—2月12日,这一波主打奶茶/消费免单。用千问App体验"一句话AI点 外卖",免单卡可在全国30多万家奶茶店通用,而且这次覆盖的饮品品牌也非常广,蜜雪冰城、瑞幸、霸王 茶姬、奈雪的茶、沪上阿姨、茶百道、库迪、诺瓦咖啡等热门茶饮品牌全都包含在内。 有网友算了一笔账,如果一家6口人参与千问免单活动,5分钟就可获得275元的无门槛免单卡,如果用来点 单价较低的蜜雪冰城柠檬茶,可以免费喝84杯,在春节将至、亲友欢聚的时刻,千问的这一波操作,直接让大 家实现了"快 ...