| 国内太阳能级多晶硅成交价 产品 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 均价 | 波动 | 波动% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | n型复投料成交价 | | - | 1 | 1 | - | | n型致密料成交价 | | | | | | | p型多晶硅成交价 | | | | | - | | n型颗粒硅成交价 | | | | | | | 单位:万元/吨 | | | | 更新日期: | 2026-2-4 | 智通财经APP获悉，据安泰科统计，本周多晶硅主流产品均无报价，且无成交。本周市场观望情绪较上 周进一步加剧，新单签约完全停滞，仅极个别企业存在小额试探性询价。下游普遍以消化现有库存为 主，采购意愿极度低迷。 当前市场僵局深化的核心原因在于：第一，尽管白银价格近期出现回落，但银浆等关键辅材的绝对价格 仍处高位，电池片生产成本压力尚未缓解，下游对硅料价格的接受度持续受限。第二，春节临近，下游 硅片、电池片企业的开工计划不确定性增强，短期采购需求有所延后，而同期硅料企业停产减产在一定 程度上缓解了供应压力，供需两方面因素导致市场观望僵局进一步深化。 据硅业分会统计，1月份国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the polysilicon market is currently experiencing a stalemate, with no quotations or transactions reported for mainstream products this week. The market sentiment has worsened, leading to a complete halt in new contract signings, with only a few companies engaging in minor exploratory inquiries [1] - The deepening market deadlock is attributed to high absolute prices of key materials like silver paste, which continue to exert cost pressure on battery production. This has limited the downstream acceptance of polysilicon prices. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the operational plans of downstream silicon wafer and battery manufacturers ahead of the Spring Festival has delayed short-term procurement needs [1] - In January, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 102,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%. The reduction mainly came from companies like Yongxiang Co., GCL-Poly Energy, and Lihau Qingneng, while increases were noted from companies like Nanfang Glass and Tianrui. The production plan for February is set to further decrease to below 85,000 tons, aligning supply with demand [1] Group 2 - The polysilicon market is expected to maintain a weak supply and demand balance in the short term, with sluggish demand before the Spring Festival and supply contraction continuing to dominate the market outlook. Significant price fluctuations are unlikely [2] - After the Spring Festival, as some downstream companies gradually release their rigid procurement needs, order transactions are expected to slowly resume, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range based on the cost lines of enterprises [2]

Group 1 - Hong Kong solar stocks experienced a rise in the afternoon trading session [1] - JunDa Holdings (02865.HK) increased by 10.39%, reaching HKD 50.45 [1] - GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) rose by 4.76%, trading at HKD 1.1 [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968.HK) saw an increase of 4.34%, priced at HKD 3.61 [1] - Flat Glass Group (06865.HK) gained 2.41%, with a price of HKD 11.47 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Solar stocks experienced a significant rise in the afternoon trading session, driven by rumors of Elon Musk's team visiting multiple Chinese solar companies for potential collaboration and technology assessment [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - JunDa Co., Ltd. (02865) saw an increase of 10.39%, reaching HKD 50.45 [1] - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800) rose by 4.76%, trading at HKD 1.1 [1] - Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (00968) increased by 4.34%, priced at HKD 3.61 [1] - Flat Glass Group Co., Ltd. (06865) gained 2.41%, with a share price of HKD 11.47 [1] Group 2: Market Rumors and Investigations - Reports indicated that Elon Musk's team conducted secret visits to various Chinese solar enterprises, focusing on equipment, silicon wafers, and battery components, particularly those utilizing heterojunction and perovskite technologies [1] - A representative from JinkoSolar, a leading solar module manufacturer, confirmed contact with Musk's investigation team, noting that the team inquired about the company's technological capabilities and production equipment, although specific collaboration intentions were not disclosed [1] - The representative also mentioned that other major domestic solar companies were similarly approached for assessments [1]

据报道，在国家自然科学基金等项目资助下，暨南大学教授麦耀华团队与上海交通大学教授韩礼元团队 合作，采用非晶钝化策略提升大面积柔性钙钛矿组件的效率与稳定性，研究团队实现柔性电池24.52% 转换效率，10000次弯折后仍保持92.5%初始效率。 据悉，太阳电池阵的技术路线包括砷化镓、P型HJT和P型HJT/钙钛矿叠层等，当前主流方案是砷化镓太 阳能电池。砷化镓太阳能电池具有耐高温、抗辐射、高转换效率、轻薄等性能优势，但高成本(占卫星 制造成本的15-20%)和刚性基板限制其大规模应用。钙钛矿电池比功率可达23W/s，约为砷化镓的6至57 倍，且省去高价值占比的TCO玻璃环节，小面积拼装路线可降低设备折旧，适配太空轻量化需求。 商业航天蓬勃发展背景下，太空光伏作为其电源系统升级的核心方向，在星座批量组网的牵引下，正迈 向技术路线升级与产业化交付的新阶段。瑞银集团近期预测，2026年全球太空光伏需求为0.3吉瓦，预 计2035年将飙升至115吉瓦，10年规模预计涨超300倍。 值得一提的是，多家上市公司已在钙钛矿赛道展开布局。天合光能近日在互动平台上透露，在太空光伏 相关的晶体硅电池(HJT等)、钙钛矿叠层电池、I ...

Group 1 - Jinan University and Shanghai Jiao Tong University teams achieved a flexible perovskite solar cell with a conversion efficiency of 24.52% and maintained 92.5% of its initial efficiency after 10,000 bends [1] - The current mainstream solar cell technology is gallium arsenide, which has advantages such as high temperature resistance and high conversion efficiency, but its high cost (15-20% of satellite manufacturing costs) limits large-scale applications [1] - Perovskite solar cells have a power density of 23W/s, significantly higher than gallium arsenide, and can reduce equipment depreciation by eliminating high-value TCO glass [1] Group 2 - The perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells are seen as a promising niche market for space applications, driven by clear national policies and diversified enterprises, with expectations for commercial breakthroughs between 2028 and 2030 [2] - SpaceX plans to launch up to 1 million satellites to create an "orbital data center," which could revolutionize energy efficiency by utilizing solar energy in space [2] - The International Telecommunication Union predicts that by the end of 2025, over 100,000 low-Earth orbit satellites will be registered, indicating a strong demand for satellite launches [2] Group 3 - UBS predicts that global demand for space photovoltaics will rise from 0.3 GW in 2026 to 115 GW by 2035, representing a growth of over 300 times in ten years [3] - Several listed companies are actively investing in the perovskite sector, with Trina Solar revealing its long-term layout in crystalline silicon batteries and perovskite tandem batteries [3] - Companies like Dike Co. and Shanghai Port Bay are expanding into space photovoltaic applications, with Dike focusing on electronic paste and Shanghai Port Bay's subsidiary working on satellite energy systems [3] Group 4 - Guosheng Securities notes that Chinese photovoltaic companies with aerospace certification and delivery capabilities are transitioning from ground support to core space applications, indicating a potential growth area in space photovoltaics [4] - Guohai Securities highlights the increasing demand for space photovoltaics, driven by the rise in satellite launches and the shift from communication satellites to more power-intensive computing satellites [4] Group 5 - JunDa Co. is entering the low Earth orbit and space photovoltaic market by investing 30 million yuan for a 16.67% stake in Shanghai Xingyi Xinneng [6] - GCL-Poly achieved a breakthrough in GTC perovskite tandem battery technology with a conversion efficiency of 33.31% and is applying for patents to enhance battery performance [6] - Aerospace Holdings is involved in satellite manufacturing and space energy, possessing relevant technology reserves for satellite energy systems [6]

Group 1 - The global commercial space industry is experiencing rapid growth, driven by policy incentives and the increasing demand for AI computing power, which is expected to boost the demand for space photovoltaic solutions [1][3] - Space photovoltaic systems are identified as the most cost-effective power solution for space activities, with significant advantages over terrestrial solar power, including enhanced sunlight exposure and higher energy stability [1][3] - The annual energy output of a solar cell in a morning and evening orbit is 5-12 times greater than that of ground-based systems, and it does not require expensive energy storage systems [1] Group 2 - Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites are currently favored for short-term applications, with HJT crystalline silicon batteries being the preferred choice, while perovskite batteries are expected to be the future option [2] - Space photovoltaic batteries are categorized into three types: gallium arsenide, crystalline silicon, and perovskite, with crystalline silicon currently being the most cost-effective despite its lower performance [2] Group 3 - The market potential for space crystalline silicon and perovskite photovoltaic batteries is estimated to be around 3 billion RMB annually from 2026 to 2030, but this is limited in the short term [3] - If launch costs significantly decrease, the annual launch capacity could dramatically increase, potentially reaching 100 GW, leading to a market expansion to 500 billion RMB [3] Group 4 - Companies that may benefit from the growth of space photovoltaic technology include those involved in HJT and perovskite battery equipment, such as Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751.SZ), Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ), and Jing Shan Light Machinery (000821.SZ) [4] - Other beneficiaries include GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800) for perovskite batteries and Dongfang Risheng (300118.SZ) for ultra-thin HJT batteries [4]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 3 日 0 / 47 | 股指期货：做空动能释放 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：波澜不惊 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面小幅震荡 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡 | 国内价格偏弱 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽度震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面底部震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 | 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 金银：金银震荡初显企稳，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：巨幅震荡逐步收敛 风险释放后等待低多机会 17 | | 铜：恐慌情绪退坡，铜价企稳 17 | | 氧化铝：震荡为主 18 | | 电解铝：流动性收紧带动价格回调后 震荡为主 19 | | 铸造铝合金：连日回调后 铝合金随板块震荡 20 | ...

Market Overview - The market is transitioning from strong expectations to a "data verification" phase as the Spring Festival approaches, with a focus on marginal improvements in fundamental data[3] - Southbound capital continues to flow into the market, supporting Hong Kong stocks, which are expected to experience a "stock-heavy, index-light" structural market[3] Key Variables for February - Attention will be on post-Spring Festival consumption data, including tourism, dining, and real estate sales, which may reflect the effectiveness of the "resident income increase plan" and domestic demand expansion[4] - The upcoming "Two Sessions" will provide insights into fiscal policies, particularly regarding long-term special bonds and "new productivity," which could influence market sentiment towards infrastructure and technology sectors[4] - The market's confidence in the Fed's interest rate cuts may be affected by resilient U.S. inflation data, necessitating close monitoring of the dollar index's impact on Hong Kong stock liquidity[4] Sector Focus - Consumer and internet sectors are expected to benefit from positive Spring Festival data, with a focus on policy-driven areas like hospitality and food and beverage[5] - Hard technology and overseas manufacturing sectors are promising, particularly in semiconductors and consumer electronics, as well as leading companies in engineering machinery and home appliances[5] - Upstream resource products, such as copper and aluminum, are anticipated to perform well due to a recovering global manufacturing PMI and post-holiday inventory replenishment expectations[5] Stock Recommendations - **Cheung Kong Property Trust (778HK)**: Target price of HKD 5.92, potential upside of 15.9%, with a strong dividend yield over 7%[9] - **NVIDIA (NVDAUS)**: Target price of USD 245.00, potential upside of 27.3%, driven by sustainable AI demand[13] - **Hesai Technology (2525HK)**: Target price of HKD 269.66, potential upside of 35.0%, benefiting from L3 autonomous driving advancements[20] - **Sangfor Technologies (1530HK)**: Target price of HKD 39.50, potential upside of 65.1%, with strong growth prospects from core products[27] - **Midea Group (000333CH)**: Target price of HKD 96.20, potential upside of 23.5%, supported by robust market leadership and dividend policies[32] - **GCL-Poly Energy (3800HK)**: Target price of HKD 1.54, potential upside of 37.5%, benefiting from developments in perovskite technology and commercial aerospace[38]

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800.HK) has announced a procurement framework agreement between its indirect wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiangsu GCL, and Henan GCL, which will facilitate the purchase and sale of products essential for the production of monocrystalline silicon crystals, starting from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026 [1] Group 1 - Jiangsu GCL will purchase products from Henan GCL under the procurement framework agreement [1] - The products include quartz used in the production of monocrystalline silicon crystals, which is a critical material in the solar energy industry [1] - As of the announcement date, no transactions have occurred between Jiangsu GCL (or Ningxia GCL) and Henan GCL under this procurement framework agreement [1]