Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Mixue Group [5][10]. Core Insights - Mixue Group is positioned as a leading domestic fresh beverage brand, emphasizing high quality at affordable prices, with a competitive edge in supply chain management and scale effects [2][10]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with estimated revenues of RMB 33.75 billion, RMB 38.06 billion, and RMB 42.39 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 36%, 13%, and 11% respectively [10][16]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach RMB 5.93 billion, RMB 6.78 billion, and RMB 7.54 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 34%, 14%, and 11% [10][16]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million RMB): - 2023: 20,302 - 2024: 24,829 - 2025E: 33,748 - 2026E: 38,059 - 2027E: 42,393 - Net profit (in million RMB): - 2023: 3,137 - 2024: 4,437 - 2025E: 5,934 - 2026E: 6,779 - 2027E: 7,535 - Projected PE ratios: - 2025E: 24.51 - 2026E: 21.45 - 2027E: 19.30 [4][10][16]. Business Model and Competitive Advantages - Mixue Group operates under a franchise model with a focus on high-density store networks, which enhances consumer reach and operational efficiency [10][22]. - The company has established a robust supply chain with high self-sourcing rates, allowing for cost advantages and quality control [10][22]. - The brand has a strong market presence in the affordable beverage segment, with Mixue Ice City leading in market share [10][22]. Market Expansion Potential - The domestic market for fresh beverages is projected to grow significantly, with an increase in consumer demand for fresh and diverse flavors [10][22]. - Mixue Group has identified potential for opening 60,000 to 70,000 stores domestically and over 40,000 stores internationally, particularly in Southeast Asia [10][22][14]. - The company is also expanding its product offerings by entering the fresh beer market through the acquisition of the brand "Fulu Family" [10][22]. Valuation - The target price for Mixue Group is set at HKD 549.47, based on a combination of relative and absolute valuation methods, reflecting a market capitalization of approximately HKD 208.8 billion [10][20][21].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock consumer sector experienced fluctuations, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF Huaxia (513230) showing a slight decline. Stocks such as Lao Pu Gold, TCL Electronics, and Mijue Group saw notable gains, while stocks like Master Kong Holdings and Li Ning faced significant losses [1] - The highly anticipated Honor 500 Pro MOLLY 20th Anniversary Limited Edition was launched on January 25, generating excitement in both the digital and trendy toy markets. The product sold out quickly both online and in physical stores, indicating strong consumer demand [1] - CICC's report highlighted the recent success of Pop Mart's new products, including the PUCKY Knock Knock series and other plush accessories, showcasing the company's innovation capabilities supported by a mature R&D mechanism and direct customer system [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities predicts that the emotional consumption trend will continue to thrive in 2026, particularly among Generation Z consumers who are increasingly willing to spend on both products and emotional experiences. Service-oriented consumption is expected to play a crucial role in driving domestic demand [2] - The policy environment continues to emphasize the potential of service consumption, with sectors such as elderly care, childcare, tourism, and duty-free shopping showing strong growth, particularly in 2025 [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF Huaxia (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing leading consumer stocks across various sectors, including Pop Mart, Yum China, Anta Sports, Nongfu Spring, and Mijue Ice City [2]

Group 1: Meituan App Upgrade - Meituan App has launched an AI search feature called "Ask Meituan" to enhance local information service experience[1] - The new version aims to provide accurate and timely decision-making information for users seeking local dining and entertainment options[1] - The upgrade integrates AI capabilities to optimize user experience in various consumption scenarios[1] Group 2: Fliggy Travel Trends - Fliggy reports that inbound travel ticket bookings have increased over 4 times compared to last year during the Spring Festival holiday[2] - University student flight bookings have risen by over 20% year-on-year as schools begin to close for the holiday[2] - The demand for cross-border travel has surged, with outbound service bookings increasing by nearly 40% in the last two weeks[2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests embracing the "AI+" trend to optimize valuations in Hong Kong stocks, focusing on internet, technology, and emerging consumer sectors[4] - Beneficiary stocks include Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, and Meituan, which are actively integrating AI and increasing capital expenditures[4] Group 4: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up 0.33%[4] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.79%, closing at 14439.66[4] - The CSI 300 Index fell by 0.45%, closing at 4702.50[4]

Group 1: Meituan App Upgrade - Meituan App has launched an AI search feature called "Ask Meituan," enhancing user experience by providing accurate local information for dining, entertainment, and services [1][9][11] - The upgrade aims to address user pain points in local consumption decisions, ensuring timely and accurate information to avoid discrepancies between online listings and actual conditions [10][12][13] - The AI model integrates various data sources to deliver personalized recommendations, significantly improving the decision-making process for users [11][12][15] Group 2: Fliggy's Travel Market Insights - Fliggy reports a significant increase in inbound travel ticket bookings, with a growth of over 4 times compared to the previous year, driven by the upcoming Spring Festival holiday [2][18] - The demand for cross-border travel has surged, with outbound service bookings increasing by nearly 40% in recent weeks, and student travel contributing to a 20% year-on-year rise in domestic flight bookings [2][18] - Popular destinations for travel during the Spring Festival include major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, with a notable increase in high-star hotel bookings and experiential travel services [18][19] Group 3: NetEase Cloud Music and Universal Music Group Partnership - NetEase Cloud Music has renewed a multi-year strategic agreement with Universal Music Group, ensuring continued access to a vast library of licensed music for users [3][21] - The partnership will enhance collaboration in music products, services, and artist promotion, reflecting a commitment to providing quality content to a young audience [21][22] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "AI+" trend is catalyzing valuation optimization in Hong Kong stocks, with new industry leaders emerging in the changing consumer landscape [4][6] - Beneficiary stocks include Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, and Meituan in the internet and technology sector, as well as new consumer leaders like Pop Mart and Ctrip [4][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the tea beverage sector, with leading brands like Luckin Coffee and others expanding rapidly, while the supply in the tea segment is contracting [3][19] - The report notes the expansion of duty-free stores in second and third-tier cities, which is expected to boost high-end consumer spending [18] - The restaurant sector is experiencing a divergence in growth, with strong performance from tea and coffee brands, while traditional Chinese dining brands are also expanding [19][30] Summary by Sections Toy Industry - As of December 2025, the number of offline toy stores in China reached 9,689, with a net increase of 184 stores [12] - The average store efficiency for toy brands increased by 13% year-on-year in December 2025, with leading brands like Pop Mart showing a 47% increase [12][14] Duty-Free Industry - The new policy established 41 new duty-free stores in second and third-tier city airports and waterway ports, aimed at enhancing consumer spending [18] - The policy allows for participation from major operators, which is expected to benefit leading companies in the industry [18] Restaurant Industry - The tea beverage sector is seeing a contraction in supply, while coffee brands are accelerating their growth, with Luckin Coffee adding 7,922 stores in 2025 [19][26] - The average monthly store efficiency for the tea industry was 209,000 yuan, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, while coffee brands achieved an average of 286,000 yuan, up 2.4% [19][20] - The report emphasizes the success of the "community central kitchen" strategy by Guoquan, which has led to popular menu items selling out [3][19] Market Performance - The Hong Kong retail and consumer services sector outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with notable gains in the toy and gold categories [4] - The report recommends several stocks across various sectors, including tourism, education, and consumer services, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [4]

Core Viewpoint - The latest public fund top ten heavy stocks show a significant shift, with AI technology and new energy stocks occupying nine positions, leaving only one for Kweichow Moutai, indicating a divergence in the consumer sector [1][2]. Group 1: Changes in Fund Holdings - As of 2025, only Kweichow Moutai remains among the top ten heavy stocks in public active equity funds, with the other nine being tech and new energy companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Ningde Times [2]. - In Q4 2021, three liquor stocks were among the top ten heavy stocks, including Moutai and Wuliangye, which were key players in the previous structural market [2]. - By the end of 2025, 1,048 funds held Kweichow Moutai, with a total market value of 118.203 billion yuan, ranking fourth among the top ten heavy stocks [2]. Group 2: Performance of Traditional Consumer Funds - Some funds have been loyal to traditional liquor stocks, with E Fund Blue Chip Select holding Kweichow Moutai for 29 consecutive quarters and Invesco Great Wall New Growth for 36 quarters [3]. - Many funds focusing on traditional consumption have seen poor performance, with some funds losing over 30% since inception and others reporting negative returns for four consecutive years [3]. - Fund managers focusing on traditional consumption often neglect to analyze their heavy holdings, instead discussing macroeconomic factors, which may indicate a disconnect from their investment strategies [3]. Group 3: Emergence of New Consumption Trends - New consumption trends, such as collectible toys and the "millet economy," have gained traction, with funds increasingly investing in these areas, while traditional consumer funds remain unresponsive [4][5]. - For example, Pop Mart has 123 funds holding it, with significant positions taken by active equity funds that are not traditional consumer funds [5]. - The divide between new and old consumption is perceived as non-existent, with both being products of changing market demands and technological advancements [5][6]. Group 4: Future Consumption Opportunities - Consumption remains a vital driver of economic growth, with expectations for service consumption in entertainment, gaming, and tourism to provide new investment opportunities [6][7]. - Fund managers suggest that the previous optimism surrounding traditional consumption stocks may be misplaced, advocating for a focus on emerging sectors like gaming and sports as new growth areas [7]. - The integration of technology and manufacturing is expected to create synergies, particularly in the robotics sector, which is becoming increasingly relevant across various industries [7].

某大幅加仓该股的基金在季报中分析认为，新消费行业标的有望从潮玩公司发展为IP生态运营者，通过 IP多元开发、海外市场深化及产品线拓宽，构建更稳健的增长模式，2026年或进入规模化盈利与结构成 长新阶段。 2025年四季度，"科技牛"继续担纲行情主线，在此期间，"新旧消费"集体表现不振。以泡泡玛特为代表 的新消费板块在上半年的异军突起后趋于沉寂，而以白酒为代表的传统消费的行情走软则贯穿了全年。 基金经理对不同个股的重仓操作也走出了分化。一方面，对于已经积累一定涨幅的泡泡玛特，2025年四 季度内基金整体呈减持态势，而对于毛戈平、蜜雪集团、布鲁可等个股选择增持;另一方面，在白酒股 拥挤度逐渐下降的季度里，基金对五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖等个股选择减持，却在四季度内对贵州 茅台增持了超20万股。 "新消费"去年四季度走势不振 去年四季度内，港股市场中多只新消费个股表现一般，未能延续上半年昂扬的势头。 其中，泡泡玛特下跌29.65%，接近三成，毛戈平下跌21.22%，老铺黄金下跌11.79%，蜜雪集团震荡涨 超5%，其余个股在一众科技股中也较为逊色。 基金持仓方面，作为颇具代表性的个股，泡泡玛特在去年四季度内依旧被1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "technology bull" continues to lead the market in Q4 2025, while both "new consumption" and traditional consumption sectors, represented by brands like Bubble Mart and liquor companies, show weak performance throughout the year [1]. New Consumption Sector - In Q4 2025, the new consumption sector, particularly represented by Bubble Mart, experienced a significant decline, with Bubble Mart's stock dropping by 29.65% [2]. - Despite the downturn, Bubble Mart remained a key holding for 123 funds, with a total of approximately 37.587 million shares held, although it was reduced by 8.7591 million shares in the quarter [2]. - Other new consumption stocks like Mao Geping and Mixue Group also saw increased fund interest, with Mao Geping being increased by 575.93 million shares and Mixue Group by 1.0322 million shares [3]. - Analysts suggest that the new consumption sector has potential for growth due to low penetration rates, despite volatility in some companies [3]. Traditional Consumption Sector (Liquor) - The traditional consumption sector, particularly the liquor industry, has shown disappointing profit results, with many stocks experiencing declines [4]. - Major liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao faced reductions in holdings by funds, with Wuliangye being reduced by approximately 15.9 million shares [5]. - Despite the overall decline, Kweichow Moutai saw an increase in holdings by over 20,000 shares in Q4, indicating continued investor confidence [5]. - Analysts believe that the liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations for stabilization in the future, although the bottom for prices and financial reports has yet to be seen [5].

证券分析师 证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 24 日 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 泡泡玛特 2.5 亿港元回购；美丽田园 25 年业绩预告表现亮眼 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.23） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 泡泡玛特 2.5 亿港元回购，彰显公司信心。公司近期公告回购 140w 股，合计耗资 2.5 亿+港元。公司低 位回购彰显公司经营信心。近期发布马年新品—马力全开搪胶毛绒，发布当日一分钟内多个平台均显示 "已售罄"。1 月官宣星星人新品系列怦然星动。泡泡玛特新品表现及品牌势能持续强劲。老 IP 持续运 营，新 IP 逐步发力，产品形态从盲盒、毛绒拓展至可动玩偶、饰品等，带动品牌影响力持续破圈。公司 作为中国潮玩行业的头部企业，具备 IP 玩具全产业链运营能力，公司通过出众的 IP 创造、运营能力及渠 道端多样的消费者触达能力持续高质量发展，且伴随公司海外业务逐步扩大、产品海外影响力不断 ...

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry in China showed signs of recovery in 2025, with a total revenue of 57,982 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% and accounting for 11.6% of total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In 2022, the restaurant revenue was 43,941 billion yuan, experiencing a decline of 6.3%. The revenue rebounded to 52,890 billion yuan in 2023, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 20.4%. In 2024, the revenue reached 55,718 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.3% [3]. - The overall growth of the restaurant market in 2025 exhibited a pattern of "stable growth, structural optimization, and emerging highlights," with a noticeable trend of stabilization in the latter half of the year [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Innovations - The year 2025 saw active performance in new business formats and categories, with a clear trend towards health and seasonality. Beverage sectors like tea and coffee accelerated innovation and capital investment, expanding towards health and integration [4]. - Restaurant companies launched seasonal products themed around "summer coolness" and "autumn and winter warmth," with hot pot and barbecue categories continuing to gain popularity amid consumer upgrades [4]. Group 3: Capital Market Activity - 2025 marked a concentrated period for restaurant industry listings, primarily on the Hong Kong stock market. Notable new tea brands such as Gu Ming and Mi Xue Group went public, followed by several other brands like Ba Wang Cha Ji and Green Tea Group [5]. - The China Cuisine Association noted that companies actively sought innovation and diversification through "restaurant+" models, enhancing product development, holiday marketing, and cultural integration [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The World Federation of Chinese Catering recently predicted trends in the restaurant industry, emphasizing the survival of small, specialized, and aesthetically pleasing establishments. Key characteristics of new consumption include fresh, traceable ingredients with fewer processing steps [5]. - There is an increasing demand for standardization, professionalism, technical skills, and innovation in the restaurant industry, alongside a diversification of consumption structures and greater use of automated kitchen equipment [5].