公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 过去几个月内存芯片价格的持续飙升，导致股市赢家和输家之间出现巨大分化，投资者看不到尽头。 从游戏机制造商任天堂、大型PC品牌到苹果公司的供应商，许多公司的股价都因盈利担忧而下跌。 与此同时，内存生产商的股价却飙升至前所未有的高度。基金经理和分析师们正在评估哪些公司能够 通过锁定供应、提高产品价格或重新设计以减少内存使用量来更好地应对供应紧张的局面。 市场此前已经有所准备：彭博社全球消费电子产品制造商指数自9月底以来下跌了12%，而包括三星 电子在内的一篮子内存制造商的股价则飙升了160%以上。问题是，市场对这种波动的消化程度如 何。 富达国际基金经理Vivian Pai表示："目前被低估的是持续时间方面的风险——目前的估值很大程度 上是基于这种波动将在1到2个季度内恢复正常的预期。"她补充说："我们认为行业供应紧张的局面可 能会持续下去"，甚至可能持续到今年年底。 内存芯片短缺和价格上涨的问题在各公司财报和电话会议中频繁出现。投资者们已经听到了警钟。 智能手机处理器制造商高通公司上周四股价下跌超过8%，此前该公司表示，内存供应紧张将限制手 机产量。任天堂在东京股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is facing the most severe supply shortage in 15 years, with Goldman Sachs raising expectations for supply-demand tension and warning of a significant gap in DRAM by 2026 [1][3]. DRAM Market Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the DRAM supply shortage will reach 4.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, significantly higher than previous estimates of 3.3% and 1.1% [4]. - The primary driver of this tension is the explosive growth in server demand, with expectations for server DRAM (excluding HBM) to increase by 39% and 22% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [5]. - In contrast, demand for mobile and PC DRAM is expected to slow significantly, with growth rates of only 7% and 5% in 2026 [6]. NAND Market Insights - The NAND market is also experiencing a tightening supply-demand situation, with shortages projected at 4.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, up from earlier forecasts of 2.5% and 1.2% [8]. - Strong growth in enterprise SSD demand is a key driver, with expectations for enterprise SSD demand to rise by 58% and 23% in 2026 and 2027 [8]. HBM Market Insights - Goldman Sachs has raised the total addressable market (TAM) for HBM to $540 billion in 2026 and $750 billion in 2027, reflecting improved demand from GPUs and ASICs [11]. - ASIC demand is accelerating, with HBM demand from ASICs expected to increase by 27% and 14% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [12]. Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, citing their strong positions in the traditional memory market and expected significant profit margins [15][16]. - Micron's rating has been downgraded to neutral with a target price of $235, as most positive factors have already been priced in [18]. - For equipment stocks, Tokyo Electron is highlighted for its strong market share in leading DRAM manufacturing tools, while Ulvac and Disco are recommended for their roles in capital expenditures related to DRAM and HBM [18].

Core Viewpoint - The price increase of NAND flash memory is driven by the rising demand from AI applications, particularly in large-scale inference processes, leading to significant upward revisions in price forecasts by market research firms [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Forecasts and Market Trends - Samsung Electronics raised NAND flash contract prices by over 100% in January, prompting multiple market research firms to revise their price forecasts upward [1]. - TrendForce increased its first-quarter NAND flash price growth forecast from 33-38% to 55-60%, indicating potential for further upward adjustments [1]. - Counterpoint predicts NAND flash prices will rise by over 40% in the current quarter [1]. Group 2: AI Demand and Storage Architecture - The surge in NAND flash demand is primarily attributed to AI applications, particularly in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) which enhances the accuracy of large language models [1][2]. - The transition from training to large-scale inference in generative AI has led to increased demand for NAND flash, as systems require high-speed access to vast amounts of data [2][3]. - The need for high-frequency access to context data during inference has resulted in a shift towards a storage architecture that includes HBM, DRAM, and NAND [3]. Group 3: Supply Constraints and Future Outlook - The global NAND flash production capacity is concentrated among a few major players, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, with investments in NAND lagging behind HBM and advanced DRAM [4][5]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 40% year-over-year increase in average NAND sales prices by 2026, with only a slight decline expected in 2027 [5]. - The introduction of High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) aims to address the limitations of traditional NAND SSDs, providing higher bandwidth and capacity suitable for AI inference applications [5][6]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - HBF combines 3D NAND flash with high-bandwidth interface technology, offering 8 to 16 times the capacity of traditional HBM, making it a competitive solution for AI applications [5][6]. - The industry is moving towards a multi-layer architecture of "DRAM cache + HBF acceleration + NAND mass storage," which is expected to alleviate supply-demand imbalances and drive growth [6].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the market is on the brink of the most severe memory chip supply shortage in the past 15 years, with significant supply-demand gaps expected in DRAM, NAND, and HBM categories from 2026 to 2027 [1] DRAM Market Insights - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its DRAM supply shortage expectations, predicting a shortfall of 4.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, surpassing previous forecasts of 3.3% and 1.1% [2] - The core driver of this tight situation is the explosive growth in server demand, with expectations for server DRAM (excluding HBM) demand increased by 6% and 10% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, leading to growth rates of 39% and 22% [3] - In contrast, PC and mobile DRAM demand forecasts have been downgraded, with mobile DRAM growth expected to slow to 7% in 2026 and PC DRAM growth at only 5% [4] NAND Market Dynamics - The NAND market is also experiencing significant tightening, with supply-demand gaps projected at 4.2% and 2.1% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, marking one of the largest shortages in the history of the NAND industry [5] - Strong growth in enterprise SSD demand is a major driving force, with expectations for enterprise SSD demand increased by 14% for both 2026 and 2027, leading to growth rates of 58% and 23% [5] - Mobile and PC NAND demand is expected to weaken, with mobile NAND demand forecasted to see zero growth in 2026, marking a historical low [7] HBM Market Developments - Goldman Sachs has raised its HBM total addressable market (TAM) expectations to $54 billion and $75 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively, reflecting improved demand from GPUs and ASICs [8] - ASIC demand is accelerating, with HBM demand for ASICs expected to increase by 27% and 14% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, while GPU demand is only expected to rise by 1% and 5% [9] - Despite an increase in HBM capacity expectations, supply-demand gaps are projected to reach 5.1% and 4.0% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, due to higher demand adjustments [9] Cost Analysis and Market Implications - A detailed BOM cost analysis indicates that memory costs are rising, with DRAM and NAND costs expected to account for approximately 23% of the total BOM for iPhones by Q3 2026, the highest level since 2010 [10] - Even under extreme negative scenarios, DRAM demand is still expected to grow by 21% in 2026, indicating persistent supply-demand tightness [11] Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs maintains buy ratings for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, citing their significant exposure to traditional memory markets and expected profitability improvements [12] - Micron's rating has been downgraded to neutral with a target price of $235, as most positive factors are believed to be priced in [13] - For equipment stocks, Tokyo Electron is highlighted for its strong market share in leading DRAM manufacturing tools, while Ulvac and Disco are recommended for their roles in capital expenditures related to DRAM and HBM [13]

行业研究丨深度报告丨电子设备、仪器和元件 [Table_Title] 美光科技：乘 AI 之东风，存储龙头高速增长 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 美光科技是全球存储的龙头企业，以 2025 年统计口径看，公司 DRAM、NAND Flash 全球市 占率分别为 23%、13%。在 45 年的发展史中始终保持产品的推出处于业内领先水平；公司以 IDM 的模式围绕核心存储持续展开产品布局，现拥有 DDR、LPDDR、GDDR、HBM、NAND Flash 等主要存储产品矩阵。近年来，AI 对于存储需求的持续拉动，助力公司 Cloud Memory 营收呈高速增长之势。就新产能规划而言，公司现已启动系列晶圆厂的建设工作，我们认为伴 随着公司新产能的逐步建成落地，美光有望长期在存储行业处于领先地位。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 张梦杰 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490523120002 SFC：BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% ...

2026 年 2 月 6 日 刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 周 报 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 半导体行业 超配（维持） 半导体行业双周报（2026/01/23-2026/02/05） 行 业 存储芯片公司 25Q4 业绩表现亮眼 半导体行业指数近两周涨跌幅：截至2026年1月22日，申万半导体行业指数 近两周（2026/1/23-2026/2/5）累计下跌7.68%，跑输沪深300指数6.55个 百分点；2026年以来申万半导体行业指数累计上涨9.77%，跑赢沪深300指 数8.90个百分点。 SAC 执业证书编号： 半导体行业（申万）指数走势 行业新闻与公司动态：（1）铠侠：在AI ...

Core Insights - TSMC plans to invest $17 billion in advanced 3nm chip production in Kumamoto, Japan, with the Japanese government considering additional support for this investment [2] - Rapidus, a Japanese chip manufacturer, is expected to exceed its private investment target of 160 billion yen ($1.02 billion) by 2025, with significant backing from IBM and other major Japanese companies [3][4] - The Japanese government is prioritizing domestic production of advanced chips for economic security, with Rapidus aiming for mass production of 2nm chips by FY2027 [5] Group 1: TSMC's Investment in Japan - TSMC's investment in Japan is set at $17 billion for 3nm chip production, with discussions ongoing regarding changes to its original plan of $12.2 billion for 6-12nm capacity [2] - The Japanese government is providing subsidies to TSMC and is considering further support for its expansion plans [2] Group 2: Rapidus' Growth and Investment - Rapidus is projected to raise over 160 billion yen ($1.02 billion) in private investments by FY2025, with major shareholders including SoftBank and Sony, each investing 21 billion yen [3][4] - The number of shareholders in Rapidus is expected to increase from 8 to over 30, indicating growing interest in the company [4] - Rapidus aims to achieve mass production of 2nm chips by FY2027, supported by both public and private funding [5] Group 3: Technological Developments and Challenges - IBM is providing technical support to Rapidus and is expected to become its first foreign investor, aiming to reduce reliance on TSMC [4] - Rapidus has confirmed the operation of its 2nm transistor prototype and is working on efficient AI chip connections [4] - Despite progress, Rapidus faces challenges in scaling production, increasing output, and expanding its customer base [5]

Group 1 - The core logic of technology investment is based on "first principles," emphasizing that the performance of AI systems is determined by the shortest supply chain segments rather than the most powerful components [2] - The investment strategy focuses on identifying bottleneck segments in the supply chain, particularly in storage, as demand for storage is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing size of AI models and their requirements [4][12] - The investment approach is characterized by a shift from macro capacity considerations to micro-level KPIs and contract details, highlighting the importance of operational efficiency and management practices in the supply chain [5][6] Group 2 - The storage sector is identified as a critical bottleneck in the AI supply chain, with demand growth outpacing that of GPUs, driven by the evolution of multi-modal models and increased data throughput [8][11] - The supply constraints in the storage market are attributed to high capital expenditure requirements and technological barriers, making it difficult for new capacity to meet the surging demand [14][16] - The expected structural changes in the storage market indicate that by 2026, over half of storage procurement will come from AI data centers, with a significant shift towards customized and long-term contracts [15][16] Group 3 - The investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of understanding industry dynamics and avoiding speculative behaviors based on price movements, advocating for a focus on fundamental industry truths [7][12] - The narrative economy is highlighted as a significant factor influencing asset pricing, where trends and narratives can drive valuations faster than actual earnings growth [27][28] - The competitive landscape in the AI sector is evolving, with companies like Google and Nvidia driving demand for optical devices and storage, indicating a shift in value distribution within the supply chain [23][29]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 参参考考链链接接 h tt ps://www. c h o s u n . c om/ e n g lis h /i ndustr y- e n/ 2026/ 02/ 01/ 4VLSUEZEBJEALKFTCXIBB7 5 IZE/ （来源 ： 编译自chosun ） 点这里加关注，锁定更多原创内容 *免责声明：文章内容系作者个人观点，半导体芯闻转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点，不代表半导体芯闻对该 观点赞同或支持，如果有任何异议，欢迎联系我们。 推荐阅读 10万亿，投向半导体 芯片巨头，市值大跌 黄仁勋：HBM是个技术奇迹 Jim Keller：RISC-V一定会胜出 喜欢我们的内容就点 "在看 " 分享给小伙伴哦~ 全球市值最高的10家芯片公司 与已固化为三星电子、SK海力士和美光三大巨头的DRAM市场不同，NAND市场竞争激烈且变化 较 大 。 尽 管 排 名 前 两 位 的 三 星 电 子 （ 32% ） 和 SK 海 力 士 （ 20% ） 正 在 减 产 NAND 并 专 注 于 DRAM，但像日本铠侠（排名第三，14%）和美国闪迪（排名第五，12%）这样的 ...

铠侠股价跌幅扩大至10%，为去年11月26日来最大跌幅。 ...