Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's announcement of a $20 billion investment (approximately 5% of his net worth) to launch the "American Party" raises concerns about its impact on Tesla's stock price, necessitating a multi-dimensional analysis of market reactions, funding nature, and potential political risks [1]. Short-term Stock Price Pressure - Concerns over fund withdrawal: Although $20 billion represents only 5% of Musk's net worth, there are fears he may sell Tesla shares to raise funds, which could lead to a significant stock price drop. For instance, Tesla's stock fell 14.3% on July 3, resulting in a $150 billion market cap loss, reflecting market panic over potential cashing out due to political actions [1][3]. - Escalating policy retaliation risks: Trump has threatened to review contracts of Musk's companies (e.g., NASA contracts for SpaceX, subsidies for Tesla). If the "American Party" continues to challenge the Republican Party, it may lead to targeted policy crackdowns, such as the cancellation of electric vehicle tax credits (costing Tesla $1.2 billion annually) and termination of SpaceX's government contracts (valued at $22 billion) [1][3]. Investor Confidence Erosion - Musk's involvement in high-risk political ventures raises concerns about his divided focus, especially as Tesla is at a critical juncture in developing autonomous driving technology. A decrease in his attention could hinder technological progress [3]. Potential Upsides and Buffer Mechanisms - Flexible funding sources: Musk can leverage stock pledges or dividends from SpaceX to secure funds without directly selling Tesla shares. With approximately $390 billion in assets, he has considerable liquidity management options [4]. - Social media leverage: The X platform (with 540 million monthly active users) can mobilize voters at a low cost, potentially enhancing Tesla's brand recognition among tech-savvy demographics if the "American Party" gains public support quickly [5]. - Feasibility of a "key minority" strategy: The party aims to secure "2-3 Senate seats and 8-10 House seats," focusing on veto power over key legislation. Success could lead to favorable policies for Tesla, such as relaxed AI regulations and deregulation of energy, mitigating some risks [5]. Medium to Long-term Balance Point - Political risk pricing completion: If Musk clarifies his funding methods (e.g., not selling stock) and both parties do not impose substantial sanctions, Tesla's stock price may recover [6]. - Industry synergy opportunities: The "American Party's" advocacy for military AI and space exploration aligns with Tesla's robotics and Starlink technologies, potentially attracting strategic investors [6]. - Systemic barriers: The U.S. electoral system limits third-party influence. If the "American Party" fails to secure significant congressional seats, its political impact may diminish, allowing Tesla's fundamentals to regain dominance over stock price [6]. Conclusion - Increased volatility but not necessarily long-term bearish: Tesla's stock faces short-term pressure from cash-out concerns and policy uncertainties, but Musk's financial maneuverability and the advantages of the X platform may partially offset risks. The medium to long-term impact hinges on three key factors: 1. Funding chain: whether Tesla stock sales are triggered; 2. Political retaliation: whether both parties escalate sanctions; 3. Policy returns: whether the "American Party" can secure benefits for the tech industry in key legislation [7].

Group 1 - The article highlights the investment philosophy of Gong Hongjia, noted as the "most successful angel investor," emphasizing a focus on the health sector for the next decade [1] - It discusses the significant shift in the social balance sheet, as shared by Guijiang from Xinpu Investment, indicating that traditional investment logic remains unchanged despite market fluctuations [1] - A dialogue from 2019 featuring Stan Druckenmiller and Scott Bessenet is referenced, covering macro analysis methods, the "political bear market" in the U.S., trade wars, and Bitcoin [1] Group 2 - The article mentions a discussion on the underestimated valuation of SpaceX, with Baillie Gifford's growth fund manager elaborating on their investment logic behind a valuation of 2.6 trillion [1] - It includes insights from Eli Lilly's CEO, David Ricks, on the strength of China's new drug development capabilities, particularly in AI innovation and weight-loss medications [1] - Novo Nordisk's CEO discusses the importance of selectively building core competencies, with a focus on future goals in the insulin sector [1] - The article concludes with a statement from Novartis' CEO, Vas Narasimhan, emphasizing the significance of China's innovative drug story [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for patient capital to support the commercialization of technological innovation, which faces challenges such as long cycles, high investment, and high risks [1] - Developed countries like the US and Europe have established relatively mature patient capital supply systems through policy guidance and market mechanism innovation, providing valuable lessons [1][3] - The US government has set up venture capital guidance funds to attract private capital into early-stage tech startups, significantly impacting job creation and economic growth [1][2] Group 2 - Various measures have been taken to expand the sources of patient capital, including reforms to pension fund systems and favorable tax regulations to encourage long-term investments in venture capital [2] - The US has seen a substantial reduction in tax rates for venture capital, with the total tax rate dropping from 49% to 20%, stimulating the growth of venture capital [2] - In the UK, the 2017 Pension Reform Act allows pension funds to invest in high-risk assets, including venture capital, enhancing the flow of long-term capital into the market [2] Group 3 - Establishing a comprehensive entrepreneurial innovation ecosystem is crucial for enhancing the success rate of startups, with Silicon Valley serving as a prime example due to its conducive environment for transforming entrepreneurial spirit into technological innovation [3] - High-level research universities play a vital role in foundational research, exemplified by Stanford University’s model of collaboration with industry, leading to the creation of numerous companies [3] Group 4 - Promoting a patient capital mindset involves educating investors about the long-term value of investments and enhancing their professional capabilities in risk assessment and investment management [4] - A robust institutional environment is necessary for the development of patient capital, including improved evaluation systems and mechanisms to support long-term investments [4] Group 5 - Creating a favorable ecosystem for patient capital development requires stable and predictable policy support, as well as a market-oriented and legal environment [5] - Many attempts to replicate Silicon Valley's success have failed due to a limited understanding of its operational model, highlighting the importance of stable policies for fostering patient capital [5]

🚨 BREAKING: SpaceX is installing Starlink Minis on all first responder vehicles in Kerr County, TX, starting today. https://t.co/buYFXckDg9 ...

RT Nick Sortor (@nicksortor)🚨 BREAKING: SpaceX will be installing Starlink Minis in ALL Kerr County, TX first responder vehicles TODAY amid catastrophic flooding, Starlink VP @LaurenDreyer confirms to meTHANK YOU @elonmusk!First responders have been STRUGGLING to contact HQ and other Texas flood rescue teams. Even the expensive radios they’ve been given don’t work. So this is INCREDIBLE news.@Starlink saves lives! ...

RT StarbaseTX (@StarbaseTX)Happy 4th of July! https://t.co/fmVGE9iZUH ...

RT Space Sudoer (@spacesudoer)July 4th fireworks going off at the Starbase City. 🇺🇸🦅https://t.co/VNGmsZd9V7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Air Force has decided to suspend a joint project with SpaceX aimed at testing hypersonic rocket cargo transportation due to environmental concerns raised by advocacy groups [1] Group 1 - The project was a collaboration between the U.S. Air Force and SpaceX [1] - The Air Force has committed to conducting an environmental review of the project [1] - The release of the preliminary report has been delayed due to opposition from environmental groups [1]

People told Elon Musk not to start Tesla and SpaceX and yet it worked out.If people keep telling him not to start another party then he will. https://t.co/nORh3OG5VM ...

Group 1 - Elon Musk's rapid political retreat from forming the "American Party" highlights his role as a pawn in a larger capital game orchestrated by Wall Street [1] - Trump's threats regarding investigations into Musk's companies leverage the substantial government subsidies Musk receives, totaling $12 billion annually, with SpaceX and NASA contracts valued at $23 billion [2] - The stock price of Tesla exhibits volatility correlated with Musk's political statements, demonstrating a pattern where Musk's criticisms of Trump lead to stock declines, while his concessions result in rebounds, indicating a strategic manipulation by Wall Street [4] Group 2 - Musk's reliance on government subsidies, including $15 billion in tax breaks for Tesla and significant NASA contracts for SpaceX, positions him as a major beneficiary of the very system he critiques [6] - The prediction of Musk's potential third retreat suggests a cyclical pattern where he may again leverage political rhetoric to influence Tesla's stock price, indicating a calculated approach to market dynamics [10]