Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.21%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.22%. The new energy vehicle sector led the gains, with NIO rising over 3% and Xpeng Motors increasing more than 2%, while tech stocks adjusted [1] - Huatai Securities noted that the volatility in asset performance and frequent style and sector rotations have led to a decline in the clarity of main lines in the market, with a weaker activity level for risk assets towards the end of the year. They identified two major consensus points: 1) The logic for the bulk commodity sector is solid and subject to rapid revaluation; 2) Weak recovery in domestic demand suggests a left-side allocation in the consumer sector [1] - CITIC Securities highlighted the recent appreciation of the RMB, which is favorable for the performance of RMB-denominated equity assets. They expect stable macro-financial conditions to lead to a stable banking operating environment by 2026, with bank interest margins bottoming out and income and profit recovery in the real sector [1] - Founder Securities mentioned that the central economic work conference and the Ministry of Finance have clarified the optimization of the "two new" policies, with multiple regions selecting old-for-new platform enterprises. Reports indicate that national subsidies will continue in 2026, with a maximum subsidy of 30,000 yuan per vehicle, focusing on phasing out old high-emission vehicles while enhancing subsidies for new energy and hybrid models [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities stated that the pressure from stock unlocks in the Hong Kong market will significantly decrease in January 2026. In December, a total of 113.9 billion HKD was unlocked, which has been a constraint on the market. In January, the unlock market value will drop to 47.2 billion HKD, particularly from mid-January to mid-February, where no companies will have unlock values exceeding 10 billion HKD, indicating a reduction in unlock pressure and potential for a rebound [2]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 在离岸人民币强劲升值的背景下，周二两市主要指数低开震荡上行后波动，机器人 | | | | | 板块领涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities highlights that the communication index has experienced significant volatility in 2025 due to concerns over AI computing power narratives and geopolitical impacts, but is expected to gradually return to pricing logic based on industry trends, with AI computing power becoming the main market theme [1] Investment Themes for 2026 - The company is optimistic about three main investment lines for 2026: 1) Embrace the AI computing power theme, focusing on investment opportunities in both domestic and international computing power supply chains [1] 2) The first secondary theme is new productive forces, with emerging sectors such as commercial aerospace, satellite internet, low-altitude economy, and quantum communication and computing expected to accelerate development due to the initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] 3) The second secondary theme is core assets, where leading companies with long-term competitiveness and resilient performance, such as telecom operators, are anticipated to see valuation enhancement opportunities as market liquidity improves [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent policies, including the new VAT policy and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's meeting, align with the central government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market, aiming to enhance market stability and reshape competitive dynamics in the industry [1] Group 1: Policy Implications - The new VAT policy and related government meetings are part of a broader strategy to stabilize the real estate market as outlined in the Central Economic Work Conference [1] - The unblocking of transaction chains is expected to create momentum for market stability [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Recommended investments include real estate stocks characterized by "good credit, good cities, and good products" [1] - Companies that can maintain cash flow through operational capabilities during market adjustments are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1] - Local Hong Kong real estate firms are expected to benefit from the recovery of the Hong Kong market [1] - Property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages are also recommended for investment [1]

新一轮热点浮现背景下，部分年末调仓的基金经理"锁定"了商业航天赛道。 近日，多只偏股型基金的净值随商业航天主题指数大涨而出现异动。其中，景气驱动、汇安价值蓝筹等 小规模基金的净值暴涨，与其三季度末披露的重仓股表现严重背离，暗示其可能在近期向商业航天方向 进行了调仓。同时，一些中等规模基金也呈现加仓该热门赛道的迹象。 基金经理此番调仓，究竟是年终短线的博弈，还是基于长期产业趋势的布局？进入2026年，这轮由政策 和产业进展驱动的行情又将如何演绎？ 净值异动背后的调仓线索 自11月下旬起，商业航天板块成为市场最受瞩目的主线之一。 截至12月29日，商业航天主题指数自11月24日以来的区间涨幅达44.25%，卫星及应用产业指数的同期 涨幅更是接近50%，领涨全市场。 板块急涨之下，一些基金的净值波动揭开了其调仓的蛛丝马迹。 数据显示，2025年12月24日，景气驱动A的净值单日大涨7.97%。而该基金截至三季度末的前十大重仓 股（在基金资产净值中的占比合计为54.89%）主要集中在传媒、半导体、游戏等行业，仅有中航沈飞 为航天军工股。前述10只个股在12月24日的平均涨幅不到1%，显然不足以支撑基金净值大涨近8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major foreign financial institutions have expressed a positive outlook for China's stock market, driven by accelerating corporate earnings growth, macro policy coordination, and the appreciation of the RMB [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Foreign institutions believe that the driving force behind the rise of China's stock market is shifting from "valuation correction" in 2025 to "earnings growth" in 2026 [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts a 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, primarily driven by a 14% and 12% increase in corporate earnings in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][5]. - UBS has set a target of 7100 points for the Hang Seng Tech Index and 100 points for the MSCI China Index by the end of 2026, indicating significant upside potential [5]. Group 2: Investment Trends - There has been a net inflow of $83.1 billion into Chinese assets through ETFs since the beginning of 2025, with the technology sector receiving the most inflow at $9.5 billion [10][11]. - Active foreign capital is expected to return more rapidly, with some foreign institutions increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market in preparation for 2026 [12][13]. - The investment opportunities are highly structured, with a focus on technology innovation, green energy transition, and high-quality brands benefiting from consumer recovery [7][9]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is highlighted as having the greatest profit growth potential, with revenue less affected by trade policies [7]. - Traditional sectors are also attracting foreign interest, with improvements in state-owned enterprise earnings and dividend increases drawing long-term capital [8]. - Under the "anti-involution" framework, sectors like cement, solar energy, and chemicals are expected to receive policy support and have attractive valuations [9].

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 240 号 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 马丽明 汪炜 聂孟依 张弛 整理记录：张智珑 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业公司 1.1 证券行业（张智珑） 市场回顾：本周非银和券商指数领涨，估值仍处于低位 根据 Wind 数据，本周（12.15-12.19）上证指数上涨 0.03%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.3%，创 业板指下跌 2.3%。申万非银金融指数上涨 2.9%，涨跌幅排名 2/31，跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.2pct；其中，券商指数上涨 1%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.3pct。券商指数 PB 为 1.38x，近两周 小幅回升，目前处于近十年的 35%分位数。 本周券商板块涨幅排名前 5 的券商分别是：东兴证券（+9.6%）、华泰证券（+3.5%）、 广发证券（+3.3%）、国信证券（+3%）、中金公司（+3%）。 跌幅最大的 5 家券商分别是：红塔证券（-1.4%）、中泰证券（-1.6%）、华林证券（- 2.5%）、首创证券（-3%）、国联民生（-3.5%）。 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company, Huatai Securities Co., Ltd., has provided a guarantee for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Huatai International Financial Holdings Co., Ltd., regarding the issuance of medium-term notes by its subsidiary, Huatai International Finance Co., Ltd., under a plan established in October 2020, with a total principal amount of up to $3 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Guarantee Overview - Huatai International Finance issued two medium-term notes on December 29, 2025, amounting to HKD 620 million and HKD 430 million, with a total guarantee amount of approximately RMB 955 million based on the exchange rate of 1 HKD = 0.9099 CNY [1][2]. - The total guarantee balance after this issuance is $1.605 billion, which includes the current guarantee [2]. Group 2: Necessity and Reasonableness of the Guarantee - The issuance of the medium-term notes is aimed at supporting business development and supplementing daily operational funds. Huatai International Finance has a debt-to-asset ratio exceeding 70%, but the company maintains 100% control over it, allowing for effective monitoring of its debt repayment capacity [3]. Group 3: Internal Decision-Making Process - The company's board approved a general authorization for debt financing tools at meetings held on December 31, 2020, and February 8, 2021. This authorization allows the company to provide guarantees for its wholly-owned subsidiaries, including those with a debt-to-asset ratio over 70% [4][5]. - The board of Huatai International recently approved the proposal to provide guarantees for the medium-term notes issued by Huatai International Finance [5]. Group 4: Cumulative Guarantee Amount - As of the announcement date, the total guarantee amount provided by the company and its subsidiaries is RMB 45.347 billion, all of which are guarantees for subsidiaries. The guarantees to controlling subsidiaries amount to RMB 33.909 billion, representing 23.66% and 17.69% of the company's latest audited net assets, respectively [6].

Core Insights - The domestic public REITs market in China is steadily progressing under favorable policies and capital interest, characterized by three distinct features: expansion, differentiation, and breaking through challenges [1] Group 1: Market Expansion - In 2025, the public REITs market in China entered a deep development phase, with 20 new projects launched, raising a total of 43.45 billion yuan (approximately 4.35 billion USD) [2] - As of December 29, 2025, the number of listed public REITs reached 78, with a cumulative issuance scale of about 201.75 billion yuan (approximately 20.17 billion USD), indicating significant growth potential [2] - The issuance pace in 2025 slowed compared to 2024, where 29 projects raised 65.52 billion yuan (approximately 6.55 billion USD), but the normalization of the expansion mechanism effectively supplemented market growth [2] Group 2: Structural Differentiation - The market has seen a breakthrough in asset types, with new fields such as digital infrastructure and urban renewal emerging, including the first data center REITs and urban renewal REITs [3] - Institutional investors dominate the market, accounting for 97.21% of the REITs market by mid-2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the end of 2024, driven by the stable cash flow characteristics of REITs [3] - The trading activity varies significantly among different asset types, with new infrastructure REITs showing a daily average turnover rate of 0.92%, while transportation infrastructure leads in monthly transaction volume [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The primary market remains robust, with high subscription enthusiasm, exemplified by the 华夏中海商业REIT achieving a subscription multiple of 361.9 times from public investors [5] - In contrast, the secondary market faced adjustments in the second half of 2025, with the 中证REITs total return index declining by 1.44% over a week, reflecting a broader market correction of nearly 6% [6][7] - Factors contributing to the secondary market's volatility include the "stock-bond seesaw effect," fluctuations in long-term interest rates, and the release of strategic placement shares, which increased market supply [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite challenges in the secondary market, the long-term outlook for the REITs market remains positive due to ongoing policy support, normalization of the expansion mechanism, and further diversification of asset types [8] - The market is expected to focus on three main paths in 2026: leveraging bond market trends, capitalizing on policy catalysts, and identifying opportunities from expansion and unlocks [8] - New asset types such as cultural tourism and elderly care are anticipated to inject growth momentum into the market, potentially leading to valuation premiums upon listing [8]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's thermal energy consumption is projected to reach 9.1 billion gigajoules in 2024, with significant implications for the industrial heating market and the energy sector overall [1] Group 1: Thermal Energy Consumption - China's thermal energy consumption in 2024 is estimated to be 9.1 billion gigajoules, with residential and industrial sectors accounting for approximately 20% and 75% respectively [1] - The industrial heating market size is projected to be 490.8 billion yuan, equivalent to about 25 million tons of steam [1] Group 2: Heating Efficiency and Market Dynamics - China's per capita heating energy consumption is 67% lower than the average of major global economies, indicating potential for growth in heating demand [1] - The price advantage of natural gas in the U.S. compared to coal in China suggests that an increase in clean heating proportions could support higher heating intensity in China [1] Group 3: Future Market Contributions - The industrial heating market serves as an effective supplement for thermal power, nuclear power, and waste incineration, with the profitability of heating operations for power generation companies expected to increase during periods of declining electricity prices [1] - By 2030, it is estimated that thermal power, nuclear power, waste incineration, and biomass power generation units could contribute an additional 225.9 billion yuan to the industrial heating market [1]