特别提示： 本次担保后，本公司及控股子公司对外担保总额超过最近一期经审计净资产100%（均为合并报表内单 位担保），敬请投资者充分关注担保风险。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-040 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于公司对全资子公司提供担保的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保情况 根据公司业务的发展和生产经营的需要，天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"天山铝业""公 司"或"本公司"）为华夏银行股份有限公司昌吉回族自治州分行（以下简称"华夏银行昌吉分行"）对本 公司全资子公司新疆生产建设兵团第八师天山铝业有限公司（以下简称"天铝有限"）享有的3亿元人民 币主债权提供最高额保证担保，为中国民生银行股份有限公司乌鲁木齐分行（以下简称"民生银行乌鲁 木齐分行"）对天铝有限享有的12亿元人民币主债权提供最高额保证担保，为中信银行股份有限公司乌 鲁木齐分行（以下简称"中信银行乌鲁木齐分行"）对天铝有限享有的10亿元人民币主债权提供最高额保 证 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum (002532) announced that the company has no overdue guarantees, no guarantees involved in lawsuits, and has not incurred losses due to being ruled against in any guarantee case [1] Summary by Categories - **Company Status** - Tianshan Aluminum confirmed the absence of overdue guarantees [1] - The company is not involved in any lawsuits related to guarantees [1] - There have been no losses incurred from guarantees due to adverse judgments [1]

本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-040 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于公司对全资子公司提供担保的公告 特别提示： 本次担保后，本公司及控股子公司对外担保总额超过最近一期经审计净资产 100%（均为合并报表内单位担保），敬请投资者充分关注担保风险。 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保情况 根据公司业务的发展和生产经营的需要，天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下 简称"天山铝业""公司"或"本公司"）为华夏银行股份有限公司昌吉回族自治州分 行（以下简称"华夏银行昌吉分行"）对本公司全资子公司新疆生产建设兵团第八 师天山铝业有限公司（以下简称"天铝有限"）享有的 3 亿元人民币主债权提供最 高额保证担保，为中国民生银行股份有限公司乌鲁木齐分行（以下简称"民生银 行乌鲁木齐分行"）对天铝有限享有的 12 亿元人民币主债权提供最高额保证担 保，为中信银行股份有限公司乌鲁木齐分行（以下简称"中信银行乌鲁木齐分 ...

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that gold prices remain within a fluctuating range while silver prices have seen further increases [2][3] - The report highlights the impact of rumors regarding reduced tariffs between the US and EU, which has led to decreased safe-haven demand for precious metals [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts within the year, with a 61.9% probability for a cut in September [2] Precious Metals - Gold price for the week was $3343.50 per ounce, down $11.60 from July 18, reflecting a decrease of 0.35% [2] - Silver price for the week was $38.74 per ounce, up $0.46 from July 18, reflecting an increase of 1.22% [2] - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.5, below expectations of 52.7 [2] - US durable goods orders for June showed a preliminary value of -9.3%, better than the expected -10.7% [2] Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $9839 per ton, up $119 from July 18, an increase of 1.22% [5] - SHFE copper closed at 79170 yuan per ton, up 760 yuan from July 18, an increase of 0.97% [5] - Domestic aluminum price was 20800 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from July 18 [6] - LME aluminum inventory was 450825 tons, up 20125 tons from July 18 [6] Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 271360 yuan per ton, up 5460 yuan from July 18, an increase of 2.05% [8] - Antimony ingot price remained stable at 184500 yuan per ton, with weak demand affecting transactions [10] Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The gold industry is rated "recommended" due to the ongoing rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [11] - The copper industry is also rated "recommended" despite short-term demand weakness, with expectations of tightening supply-demand dynamics in the medium to long term [12] - The aluminum industry maintains a "recommended" rating, anticipating similar supply-demand conditions [13] - The tin industry is rated "recommended" due to supply tightness potentially supporting prices [13] - The antimony industry is rated "recommended" with expectations of long-term supply tightness supporting prices [13] Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Shanjin International [14] - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, HeSteel Resources, and Cangge Mining [14] - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [14] - Antimony industry recommendations include Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous [14] - Tin industry recommendations include Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xingye Silver Tin [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Industry Overview - The electrolytic aluminum industry benefits from energy consumption restrictions, limited production capacity, and slow overseas production, maintaining a favorable state without excessive competition or policy intervention in recent reforms [1][2] - Historical experiences indicate that policy interventions and demand stimulation can effectively control supply and sustain market conditions, as seen in the capacity elimination from 2016 to 2018 and the economic recovery post-COVID-19 in 2021 [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Sustained market conditions require terminal demand stimulation, such as investments in hydropower stations and infrastructure projects, similar to past measures like real estate demand relaxation and automobile purchase tax incentives [1][4][5] - The electrolytic aluminum sector is viewed as a dividend-like stock due to its rigid supply, increasing dividend rates, and high yields, with recommendations to focus on companies with stable dividends and high yield rates [1][6] - Recent commodity price increases are primarily driven by rising demand and energy consumption controls, leading to a 10% to 15% average reduction in output for high-energy-consuming products like steel, aluminum, and copper, with many prices reaching new highs since 2007 [1][7] Factors Influencing Aluminum Performance - Aluminum performs well in the current economic environment due to its high energy consumption, with production requiring 13,500 kWh per ton, consuming over 7% of China's total electricity [1][8] - The high cost of production and the strict control of overproduction in the aluminum sector limit its elasticity, making it less susceptible to fluctuations compared to other cyclical products [1][9] - Demand for non-ferrous metals, including aluminum and copper, is expected to grow due to applications in new energy vehicles, grid upgrades, and other sectors, maintaining resilience even as real estate demand weakens [1][9] Future Outlook and Recommendations - Over the next 3 to 5 years, aluminum and copper are recommended as key investment targets, with optimal buying opportunities during periods of gradual interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][10] - The aluminum sector is expected to show strong resilience, with a projected annual growth rate of about 3%, while supply remains constrained due to domestic controls and slow overseas production [1][11] - Key recommended stocks include high-dividend companies such as China Hongqiao, Hongshuang Holdings, Tianshan Aluminum, and Zhongfu Industrial, which have high dividend rates and significant value potential [1][11] Additional Important Insights - The aluminum sector has seen a rapid recovery in cash flow from 20 billion to over 80 billion to 100 billion, with debt ratios decreasing from 60-70% to 30-40%, indicating a favorable environment for dividends [1][11] - The current price-to-book ratio is approximately 1.5, with annual dividend rates increasing steadily by 10%, highlighting significant marginal changes and a favorable dividend timing [1][11]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate due to tariff agreements and Federal Reserve independence issues, with prices initially rising before declining [2][9] - Copper prices are supported by positive market sentiment and upcoming tariff implementation, despite potential supply and demand pressures [10][12] - The aluminum sector is experiencing price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and inventory levels, with long-term demand expected to remain strong [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Research Insights - Gold prices are under pressure due to evolving tariff agreements and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's independence, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold [9] - Copper prices are supported by positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market and upcoming tariff changes, with a long-term optimistic outlook [10] - Aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors and inventory levels, with expectations of sustained high profitability in the sector [11] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index increased by 7.10%, outperforming the broader market by 5.43%, ranking third among 30 sub-industries [12] - The top-performing sectors include tungsten, lithium, and rare earth materials, with significant individual stock gains [12] Metal Prices and Inventory - Prices for various metals, including lithium and cobalt, have shown significant increases, indicating strong demand and market dynamics [22][24][27] - Basic metals have generally seen price increases both domestically and internationally, with specific price movements detailed for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin [27][28] - Inventory levels for metals such as copper and aluminum have shown mixed trends, impacting market supply dynamics [35][36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Views - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, leading to a comprehensive rise in metal prices, particularly strategic metals [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic metals and bottom energy metal allocation opportunities, highlighting the revaluation of rare earths and tungsten [4] - The report suggests that the domestic growth stabilization and anti-involution policies are enhancing expectations, which is driving up domestic commodity prices [5][6] Summary by Sections Strategic Metals - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are experiencing a revaluation, with significant price increases expected due to government focus and international supply chain developments [4] - The price of rare earth concentrate has increased to 19,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [4] - Tungsten prices are also on the rise, supported by strong supply dynamics and improving company performance [4] Energy Metals - The report indicates a high probability of short-term price increases for cobalt, with a significant drop in imports noted [4] - Cobalt intermediate imports in June fell to 18,991 tons, a decrease of 61.6% month-on-month [4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize, with long-term price expectations likely to rise [4] Lithium - The report notes a bottoming out of lithium prices, with recent regulatory changes indicating stricter domestic mining controls [4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded by 15.2% to 76 CNY/kg [24] - The report suggests monitoring potential resource releases in the lithium sector [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are fluctuating due to improved risk appetite and easing trade tensions, with a recommendation to increase allocation to precious metal stocks [4][6] - The report highlights that gold stocks have underperformed, suggesting a strategic buying opportunity [4] - Silver is noted for its potential upside, with a recommendation to consider silver stocks for recovery [4] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are experiencing mixed performance, with domestic prices leading international trends [5][6] - Copper prices on the SHFE increased by 1.1%, while aluminum prices rose by 1.2% [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and their impact on metal demand [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][106] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that domestic mining disturbances have intensified, leading to a rebound in lithium prices from the bottom [2] - Copper prices have fluctuated due to significant inventory reduction domestically, with a short-term outlook of price support from low inventory levels [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable amid rising inventories, while lithium prices have rebounded significantly due to supply-side disturbances [2] - Cobalt prices have increased as inventory is gradually consumed, with potential price rebounds anticipated due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Domestic and international macroeconomic conditions are showing mixed signals, with U.S. unemployment claims lower than expected [6] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices have seen an increase of 1.22% in London and 1.07% in Shanghai, with significant inventory changes noted [22] - The report indicates a loss in copper smelting margins, which have expanded to -2475 CNY/ton [22] 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices have increased by 2.33% in London and 1.19% in Shanghai, with rising inventories impacting price stability [34] - The profit margin for aluminum smelting has decreased to 4460 CNY/ton [34] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have risen by 1.55% in London and 0.56% in Shanghai, while zinc prices have increased by 2.26% in London and 2.44% in Shanghai [44] - Mining profits for zinc have improved to 7360 CNY/ton [44] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have increased by 4.89% in London and 2.67% in Shanghai, with nickel prices also showing upward trends [58] - Domestic nickel iron enterprises have reported profits of 5792 CNY/ton [58] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices have risen by 9.38% to 72900 CNY/ton, with lithium spodumene prices increasing by 13.92% to 810 USD/ton [74] - The report notes that smelting margins for lithium remain negative, indicating challenges in profitability [74] 3.2 Cobalt - Domestic cobalt prices have increased by 2.06% to 248000 CNY/ton, with significant price increases anticipated due to supply constraints [86]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side disturbances are causing lithium prices to continue to break through previous levels. Additionally, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite recent price corrections due to improved market risk appetite following trade agreements [1][37]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase this week, with a 6.7% rise in the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index. Sub-sectors such as small metals and energy metals experienced even higher gains of 14.3% and 12.4%, respectively [10][17]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Price strength driven by tariff easing and anti-involution sentiment. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased by 13.16% year-on-year to 6.6276 million tons in the first half of the year, despite supply constraints [2]. - **Aluminum**: Short-term price fluctuations due to changing sentiments around anti-involution policies. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 43.975 million tons, with minor production adjustments observed [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Continued supply-side disturbances led to a price increase, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising 14.3% to 79,000 yuan/ton. Concerns over mining license renewals may tighten supply further [2][28]. - **Silicon Metal**: Prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to market sentiment influenced by anti-involution policies, despite stable demand from downstream industries [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have corrected due to improved market risk appetite following trade agreements, but the long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged amid ongoing concerns over global monetary credit and public debt [1][37]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - **Shanxi International** (Buy) - **Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining** (Buy) - **Luoyang Molybdenum** (Buy) - **China Hongqiao Group** (Buy) [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the sector [6]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for industrial metals driven by domestic policies aimed at reducing competition and boosting infrastructure investment, alongside U.S. fiscal expansion and ongoing interest rate cuts [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are expected to see price increases due to supply disruptions and strong demand from the new energy sector [3]. - Precious metals are favored due to heightened demand for gold as a safe haven amid global trade tensions and ongoing central bank purchases [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that industrial metal prices are rising due to domestic "anti-involution" policies and infrastructure investment, with copper prices experiencing short-term fluctuations due to trade changes [2]. - Key statistics include a weekly increase in aluminum prices by 1.22% and copper prices by 1.07%, while zinc prices rose by 2.65% [11]. - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rebounding significantly due to supply concerns from regions like Jiangxi and Qinghai, with expectations for continued price increases [3]. - Cobalt prices are also anticipated to rise due to raw material shortages and increased demand as the market recovers from a low trading volume [3]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Zangge Mining [3]. Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for gold driven by global trade uncertainties and central bank purchases, predicting a long-term upward trend in gold prices [4]. - Gold prices have shown a weekly increase of 0.68%, while silver prices rose by 2.13% [11]. - Recommended companies include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [4].