2026 年 3 月 3 日 总量研究 短线重视资源品配置机会 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20260303 要点 市场核心观点： 上周（2026.02.24-2026.02.27）A 股实现震荡上行，中证 1000 周度上涨 4.34%、 领涨主要宽基指数。量能表现方面，主要宽基指数量能震荡回升，截至上周五 （2026.02.27，下同）主要宽基指数量能择时维持谨慎观点，市场进一步上行或 需量能进一步提振。资金面方面，周度融资增加额转正，市场风险偏好有所提升。 近期中东局势发生剧烈变化，带动资源品价格震荡上行，或影响权益市场相关板 块价格表现。当前市场量能仍在修复阶段，量能未能持续突破下，权益指数难有 强势上涨表现。风险偏好提升背景下，市场或震荡上行。短期看好资源品配置机 会，中长期仍看好"红利+科技"配置主线。 上周市场各指数均表现为上涨，上证综指上涨 1.98%，上证 50 上涨 0.17%，沪 深 300 上涨 1.08%，中证 500 上涨 4.32%，中证 1000 上涨 4.34%，创业板指 上涨 1.05%，北证 50 指数上涨 0.48%。 截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日，宽基指数来看， ...

【广发环保 陈龙&郭鹏】垃圾焚烧多元特性、AI时代下重估其价值 建议关注 大地海洋、卓越新能、海螺创业、伟明环保、雪迪龙、景津装备、瀚蓝环境、上海实业控股、山高环能 等 AI时代垃圾焚烧资产价值重估 以电力、供水、固废为代表的基础设施，凭借供给刚性、需求稳定及低淘汰风险 等特征，【以实体资产形态锁定 长期现金流，具备穿越周期的长期价值基础】：1）供给扩张受特许经营权、审批流程及高投入约束，新增产能释 放周期长 【广发环保 陈龙&郭鹏】垃圾焚烧多元特性、AI时代下重估其价值 建议关注 大地海洋、卓越新能、海螺创业、伟明环保、雪迪龙、景津装备、瀚蓝环境、上海实业控股、山高环能 等 AI时代垃圾焚烧资产价值重估 以电力、供水、固废为代表的基础设施，凭借供给刚性、需求稳定及低淘汰风险 等特征，【以实体资产形态锁定 长期现金流，具备穿越周期的长期价值基础】：1）供给扩张受特许经营权、审批流程及高投入约束，新增产能释 放周期长；2）服务基础公共需求，现金流可预测性强；3）资产寿命长，不易受技术迭代或商业模式变化影响。 具体到垃圾焚烧 ：1）特许经营权锁定当地供给，兼备排他、垄断特性；2）稳定民生刚需之一，量、价锁定，成 ...

Group 1 - The biodiesel sector increased by 5.69% compared to the previous trading day, with Zhuoyue New Energy leading the gains [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.41, up 0.87%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14291.57, up 1.36% [1] - The net inflow of main funds in the biodiesel sector was 64.78 million yuan, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 20.21 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The main funds showed a significant net inflow, indicating strong institutional interest in the biodiesel sector [1] - Retail investors, however, exhibited a net outflow, suggesting a cautious approach among individual investors [1] - The overall market performance reflected positive sentiment, with both major indices showing gains [1]

A股迎来马年开门红，三大指数节后集体上涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0.87%，报4117.41点，深成指涨 1.36%，报14291.57点，创业板指涨0.99%，报3308.26点，科创50指数跌0.34%，报1465.37点。沪深两市 合计成交额22020.62亿元。市场超4000只个股上涨，其中109只个股涨停。 开源证券认为，春季躁动并非一次性走完，过去十年有6次在经历回调后走出第二波上涨，且第二轮上 涨往往比第一波更具赚钱效应，方向与当时市场主线强相关。 中信建投指出今年A股处于慢牛格局中，投资者做多热情高涨，前期在"主动降温"引导下指数完成了一 轮回调整固，节后有望开启新一轮上行。和以往不同的是，由于今年春节时间较晚，春节后两会前仅一 周的交易时间。两会期间则常出现"兑现行情"，重点关注细分产业政策超预期情况。 国金宏观指出，市场波动主要源于流动性与风险偏好变化，而非AI产业方向逆转。未来美股对业绩兑 现要求将更严苛，资本开支容忍度持续下降，波动大概率加剧，但科技股是否已经走到右侧仍需观察。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 午后化工（核心股）">磷化工（核心股）板块涨势扩大，云天化、六国化工 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that recent liquidity shocks in overseas markets, driven by concerns over the AI software bubble and subsequent momentum selling, have led to significant volatility in equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. It suggests that some assets may have been "wrongly killed" due to these liquidity shocks, as the macroeconomic fundamentals and broad liquidity environment have not changed significantly [1][13] - The report anticipates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment and CPI data for January may present upward risks, potentially reversing the slight increase in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts observed this week [1][13] Financial Products - The report highlights that overseas market liquidity shows signs of stabilization, which may improve market sentiment. It predicts a positive outlook for the A-share market in February, with a historical probability of 78.57% for an increase following a macro timing model score of 0 [1][16] - Fund allocation recommendations suggest a balanced ETF configuration due to expected short-term market fluctuations, with a focus on sectors like chemicals and electric grid equipment, which continue to see increasing fund sizes [1][16] Commodity Market - The report discusses the impact of liquidity shocks on commodity prices, noting that certain commodities, which rely on supply-demand improvements, have been "wrongly hurt" but may return to fundamental pricing logic as market conditions stabilize [2][17] - It emphasizes that the recent volatility in silver and other precious metals indicates a potential end to the liquidity shock, with silver becoming a key indicator of market sentiment [2][17] Environmental Industry - The report stresses the importance of advancing the national carbon market and outlines investment recommendations in clean energy, energy conservation, and recycling sectors. It highlights specific companies such as Longjing Environmental and others involved in renewable energy and waste management [6][10] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report notes a recovery in the IPO and refinancing market, with significant year-on-year growth in both areas. It indicates that the capital market reforms and increased market activity are expected to benefit brokerage firms' investment banking revenues [9] AI Industry and Bond Financing - The report focuses on the AI industry, highlighting the need for a diversified financing system to support technology companies, particularly private firms with high growth potential. It reviews case studies of leading tech companies' bond financing paths to assess the feasibility of similar strategies in China [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued a notification to enhance the national carbon market construction, indicating a clear expansion of the carbon trading market by 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Carbon Market Management - Strengthening the management of key emission units in power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with a focus on quota compliance by 2025 [2]. - Key emission units with direct emissions reaching 26,000 tons of CO2 equivalent must be included in the 2027 national carbon trading market list, to be published by provincial ecological environment departments by October 31, 2026 [2]. - Data quality management for key emission units will be organized by provincial departments, with a control plan due by December 31, 2026 [2]. Group 2: Reporting and Verification - Other key industries such as petrochemicals, chemicals, construction materials, non-ferrous metals, paper, and civil aviation are required to report their 2025 emissions data, with verification deadlines set for March 31 and December 31, 2026 [3]. - Industries not yet included, like steel and cement, must also report by March 31, 2026, with verification by July 31, 2026 [3]. Group 3: Market Expansion and Future Outlook - The carbon market currently covers approximately 8 billion tons of emissions, accounting for over 60% of national carbon emissions, with plans to expand coverage to major industrial sectors by 2027 [4]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is preparing technical documents for quota distribution and verification for industries like chemicals, petrochemicals, and civil aviation, supporting the market's expansion [4]. - The tightening of long-term quotas is expected to drive carbon prices upward, alongside total control and a combination of free and paid allocations [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on clean energy companies such as Longjing Environmental Protection and those involved in biofuels and green hydrogen [5]. - Companies engaged in energy-saving technologies and waste resource recovery are also highlighted for investment opportunities [5]. - Carbon monitoring firms like Xuedilong and JuGuang Technology are suggested for attention due to their relevance in the evolving carbon market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The biodiesel sector experienced a decline of 1.1% on February 10, with Fengbei Bio leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.02% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of Fengbei Bio was 56.75, reflecting a decrease of 3.21% [1]. - The biodiesel sector saw a net outflow of 56.84 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 46.01 million yuan [1]. - The trading volume for the biodiesel sector was significant, with stocks like Zhongliang Technology and Haixin Energy showing notable trading activity [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Analysis - Zhongliang Technology closed at 6.43, down by 0.77%, with a trading volume of 217,100 shares [1]. - Fengbei Bio had a net outflow of 8.37 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 5.62 million yuan [2]. - The stock of Zhuoyue New Energy closed at 76.28, down by 1.56%, with a significant net outflow of 19.20 million yuan from main funds [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of the national carbon market construction, with a clear roadmap for the second expansion, emphasizing the importance of carbon trading in driving up carbon prices [5]. - It notes that the carbon market currently covers approximately 8 billion tons of emissions, accounting for over 60% of national carbon emissions, with plans to expand coverage to additional industries by 2027 [5]. - The report suggests a carbon neutrality investment framework focusing on energy substitution, energy conservation, and recycling, recommending specific companies in clean energy, energy efficiency, and recycling sectors [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report discusses the recent notification from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment regarding the management of carbon emissions quotas for key industries, including power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, which will be included in the carbon trading market by 2027 [5]. - It outlines the timeline for quota allocation and compliance, indicating a structured approach to managing carbon emissions and ensuring timely compliance by relevant industries [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on clean energy companies such as Longjing Environmental Protection and those involved in bio-oil resources like Shanggou Energy and Langke Technology [5]. - It also highlights opportunities in energy efficiency management and recycling, suggesting companies like Ruicheng Environmental Protection and High Energy Environment for hazardous waste resource utilization [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies in the environmental sector, including Huicheng Environmental and GaoNeng Environment [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the integration of rural ecological environment governance with agricultural modernization, driven by the State Council's rural revitalization policy, which is expected to boost demand in wastewater treatment, waste disposal, and agricultural pollution prevention [10][12]. - The Guangdong province has issued a guiding announcement for hazardous waste utilization and disposal capacity construction for 2025, indicating a shift towards optimizing the structure of hazardous waste disposal, which will benefit companies focused on quality improvement in waste treatment [13][17]. - The environmental sector is currently experiencing low macroeconomic interest rates, making it an attractive investment opportunity, particularly for companies with strong cash flow and high dividend yields [2][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - The report highlights the release of the Central Committee and State Council's document on rural modernization, which aims to integrate ecological governance with agricultural development [10]. - The Guangdong announcement encourages investment in hazardous waste projects, focusing on resource utilization and high-end disposal [13]. - The environmental sector is positioned for a rebound as institutional holdings and valuations are at historical lows, suggesting a favorable investment environment [18]. Market Performance - The environmental sector outperformed the broader market, with a decline of only 0.18% compared to a 1.27% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 3.28% drop in the ChiNext Index [23]. - Notable stock performances include Kairun Environment with a rise of 28.91% and Shuangliang Energy with an 18.22% increase, while Shenwu Energy saw a decline of 11.25% [23]. Key Companies - Huicheng Environmental is recommended for its strong position in hazardous waste projects and innovative technology in waste plastic recycling [20]. - GaoNeng Environment is highlighted for its comprehensive environmental system services and a robust pipeline of hazardous waste projects [20]. - Hongcheng Environment is noted for its consistent revenue growth and high dividend yield, making it an attractive investment option [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a crucial method for reducing carbon emissions in aviation, capable of reducing carbon emissions by up to 85% compared to traditional aviation fuels [2][20] - Policies in regions such as the EU, the US, and China are driving the development of SAF, creating significant market opportunities [2][39] - The SAF production landscape is diverse, with various technologies being developed, although there are differences in maturity and feasibility [2][11] - Used Cooking Oil (UCO) is a key raw material for SAF production, and China is the largest exporter of UCO, with an estimated annual collection capacity of about 8.1 million tons [2][5] - Investment recommendations include companies such as Jiaao Environmental Protection, Haineng Technology, and others involved in the SAF sector [2][6] Summary by Sections SAF as a Key Method for Carbon Reduction - SAF is a direct substitute for traditional aviation fuel, with high energy density and compatibility with existing aviation systems, requiring minimal infrastructure changes [20][22] - The SAF supply chain includes various raw materials, primarily waste cooking oils and agricultural residues, with significant potential for carbon reduction [22][23] Policy Driving SAF Development - The EU has set ambitious SAF blending targets of 6% by 2030, 34% by 2040, and 70% by 2050, while the US primarily uses subsidies to promote SAF production [2][39][44] - The global demand for SAF is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a need for 35 million tons by 2050 [38][39] Diverse SAF Production Routes - The report highlights multiple production technologies for SAF, with HEFA being the most commercially viable, but AtJ and GFT technologies showing long-term potential [2][29] - The cost of SAF remains high due to technological maturity, limited raw material supply, and an underdeveloped supply chain [23][24] UCO Resource Attributes - UCO is a critical feedstock for SAF production, and China's large population and developed catering industry contribute to a significant UCO supply [2][5] Related Companies - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Jiaao Environmental Protection, Haineng Technology, and others for investment opportunities in the SAF sector [2][6]