VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Capstone Copper Corp. ("Capstone†or the "Company†) (TSX:CS) (ASX:CSC) is pleased to announce that Union #2 at the Mantoverde Mine in Chile has ratified a new 3-year collective bargaining agreement, ending the strike initiated on January 2. Capstone's priority is to safely and efficiently return to full operations at Mantoverde, which operated at approximately 55% of normal production levels during the strike. Following an agreement with Union #2, M. ...

Core Viewpoint - Capstone Copper Corp. has resumed operations at the Mantoverde mine in Chile after a disruption caused by issues with the desalination plant, while a strike by Union 2 continues, affecting approximately 22% of the workforce [1][3]. Group 1: Operations Update - Operations at the Mantoverde mine have resumed, with production expected to be between 50% to 75% of normal levels during the ongoing strike [1]. - The strike by Union 2 began on January 2, 2026, and represents about 22% of the total workforce at Mantoverde [3]. - Capstone Copper is open to discussions with Union 2 to resolve the labor dispute and is committed to legal procedures and employee rights [1][3]. Group 2: Production Performance - Capstone Copper achieved record annual copper production of 224,764 tonnes in 2025, marking a 22% increase compared to 2024 [3]. - The company met its annual copper production guidance for 2025, demonstrating operational resilience despite the labor disruptions [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Capstone Copper Corp. is focused on copper mining in the Americas, with a portfolio that includes several mines in the USA and Mexico, as well as the Mantoverde mine in Chile [1]. - The company's strategy emphasizes transformational copper production growth, cost improvements, and responsible production practices [1].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Weak Industry and Inventory Accumulation, Copper Prices Oscillating at High Levels [1] Report Date - January 26, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Last week, Shanghai copper oscillated at high levels. Supported by factors such as China's GDP growth, loose monetary policy, increased power grid investment, overseas geopolitical risks, a weakening US dollar, and rising precious metals, copper prices were affected by tight supply at the mine end and weak downstream demand due to high prices, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation. The market is in a game between macro - level positives and weak reality, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels with limited upward potential. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [5][10] Summary by Directory 1. Main View and Strategy 1.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper oscillated at high levels. As of January 23, it closed at 101,340 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.57%. China's GDP grew by 5% in 2025, and the monetary policy in 2026 remains loose. The "14th Five - Year Plan" power grid investment will increase by 40%. Overseas geopolitical risks are rising rapidly, the US dollar is continuously weakening, and precious metals are strengthening. At the fundamental level, the shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates remains at a historical low. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike due to failed negotiations. US President Trump does not consider imposing additional tariffs on key minerals including copper for the time being, and the LME - COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed. High copper prices have put pressure on downstream operations in China, domestic inventory has been continuously accumulating, and copper prices have oscillated at high levels [5] 1.2 Supply Side - The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the processing fee has remained at a historical low. As of January 23, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.86%. As of January 23, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 49.8 US dollars/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to decline. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in December was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual total production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. In December, the supply of scrap - produced anode copper increased, and the sulfuric acid price was strong, so smelters had little willingness to actively reduce production. Affected by smelter maintenance and the statistical cycle in January, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month [8] 1.3 Demand Side - High copper prices have put pressure on downstream operations, but the copper foil industry's operating rate has increased against the trend. As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 67.98%. With the decline in copper prices, downstream orders have recovered, and the approaching Spring Festival has led enterprises to accelerate production and stock up, driving the operating rate up. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper rods, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. High copper prices have seriously weakened the terminal enterprises' ability to accept high - priced raw materials, resulting in a significant shrinkage in order volume and a decline in the operating rate of copper strip enterprises. Most brass rod production enterprises have increased production to meet their annual output value targets, driving the industry's operating rate up. Large enterprises have stable orders and increased production at the end of the year to prepare for the New Year's Day holiday, leading to an increase in the operating rate. The copper foil industry's operating rate has increased for the 8th consecutive month, and the energy storage industry remains highly prosperous. The traditional end - of - year production rush in the downstream has supported the demand at a high level [9] 1.4 Inventory - Domestic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating, and COMEX copper inventory has continued to pile up. As of January 23, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 22.59 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.82%. As of January 22, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 2.9% compared with January 15, and the total inventory increased by 203,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 23, the LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19.59%. The COMEX copper inventory was 562,600 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.63%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [9] 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - At the macro - level, China's GDP grew by 5% in 2025, the monetary policy in 2026 remains loose, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" power grid investment will increase by 40%. Overseas geopolitical risks are rising rapidly, the US dollar is continuously weakening, and precious metals are strengthening. At the fundamental level, the processing fee at the mine end continues to decline, and smelting losses are expanding. US President Trump said that he does not consider imposing additional tariffs on key minerals including copper for the time being, and the LME - COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed. The traditional off - season and high copper prices have suppressed consumption, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases at low prices. Social inventory has increased to 335,200 tons and continues to accumulate. Spot prices are generally at a discount, and trading is light. The market is in a game between macro - level positives and weak reality. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate at high levels with limited upward potential. It is necessary to be vigilant against the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, and the GDP in the fourth quarter increased by 4.5%. The GDP in 2025 exceeded 140 trillion yuan, achieving the annual growth target. In December 2025, China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing showed good growth momentum. In 2025, China's fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with mining investment increasing by 2.5% and manufacturing investment increasing by 0.6%. China's LPR in January remained unchanged for the eighth consecutive month, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The central bank deputy governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 [15][19][21] 2.2 Industrial Information Overview - In 2025, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in Congo achieved its production target. Chile has lowered its copper production forecast for the next few years, and the peak production will be postponed for several years. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance for 2026 and 2027. In December 2025, China's scrap copper imports increased by 14.83% month - on - month. In 2025, China's cumulative refined copper production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile has been shut down due to a strike, tightening the global copper supply. Freeport - McMoRan reported its 2025 production and consumption data and its 2026 production forecast. The ICSG and WBMS data show that the global refined copper market had a supply surplus in November 2025. Freeport - McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine restart is progressing as planned [22][24] 3. Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - The spot premium of Shanghai copper has continued to decline, and market trading has remained light. The decline in copper prices during the week has improved trading volume, and demand has recovered slightly. It is expected that the Shanghai copper spot market will maintain a pattern of "high discount, weak trading" next week. The LME copper 0 - 3 has changed from a large premium to a discount. The premium of the copper spot contract over the three - month contract once exceeded 100 US dollars per ton, indicating strong near - term delivery demand and a shortage of deliverable spot inventory. US President Trump's statement has narrowed the LME - COMEX spread [29] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of January 23, the Shanghai copper futures position was 231,437 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2.44%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 210,695.4 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 26.52%. As of January 16, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 9,618.35 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.54%. As of January 20, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 62,806 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% [31] 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The shortage of copper concentrates continues due to mine - end disturbances, and the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike. As of January 23, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.86%. As of January 23, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 49.8 US dollars/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to decline. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in December was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual total production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. Affected by smelter maintenance and the statistical cycle in January, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month [40] 4.2 Downstream Operating Rate - As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 67.98%, with a month - on - month increase of 10.51 percentage points. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper rods, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. High copper prices have affected the operating rates of different downstream industries, but the copper foil industry has maintained a high and rising operating rate [44] 4.3 Inventory - As of January 23, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 22.59 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.82%. As of January 22, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 2.9% compared with January 15, and the total inventory increased by 203,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 23, the LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19.59%. The COMEX copper inventory was 562,600 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.63%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [49]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 周四，美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预 期 21 万人，前值由 19.8 万人修正为 19.9 万人。美国第三季度 实际 GDP 年化季率终值 4.4%，预期 4.30%，前值 4.30%。美 国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率终值 3.5%，前值 3.5%。美 国第三季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率终值 2.9%，预期 2.9% ，前值 2.90% 。美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数月率 0.2%，预期 0.20%。美国 11 月个人支出月率 0.5%，预期 0.50%。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续 突破历史新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 8.30%至 4,983.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 14.80%至 103.26 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上 涨 8.07% 至 1,115.64 元 / 克 ，SHFE 白银上涨 11.04% 至 24,965.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 5.66%至 48.26。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 27,574.43 ...

Capstone Copper Corp. is an Americas-focused copper mining company headquartered in Vancouver, Canada. Capstone's operating portfolio of assets includes the Pinto Valley copper mine located in Arizona, USA, the Cozamin copper-silver mine located in Zacatecas, Mexico, the Mantos Blancos copper-silver mine located in the Antofagasta region, Chile, and the Mantoverde copper-gold mine, located in the Atacama region, Chile. Capstone's growth pipeline includes the fully permitted Santo Domingo copper-iron-gold pr ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - face expectation is repeated but relatively stable. The raw material supply is tight, and the smelting end has disturbance expectations, with strong support on the supply side. Terminal consumption may improve, but the current supply - demand is weak, and domestic inventory is accumulating rapidly. In the short - to - medium term, after the rapid price increase, consumption is inhibited, and prices may experience a significant correction. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disturbance concerns remains unchanged. After the market sentiment stabilizes, opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel can be considered. In the long - term, there is still an expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin is still subject to disturbances, with an expectation of tightening supply - demand, and the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: The US December CPI data is in line with expectations; China's copper smelter has set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee at 0; China's electrolytic copper production in December increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on January 19 showed a slight improvement; a Chilean copper mine will go on strike, and a copper mine in Ecuador has postponed its production. - **Main Logic**: The Fed may continue to be loose, providing support for copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tightening, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak and inventory is increasing, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be optimistic. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [7][8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased. - **Main Logic**: The macro sentiment amplifies the price fluctuations. The supply contraction is insufficient, the cost support is weak, but the price may fluctuate more due to more capital attention. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [8][9]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the average price of SMM AOO decreased, the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, the warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum increased, the Japanese port aluminum ingot premium increased, and the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased month - on - month in December 2025. - **Main Logic**: The macro expectation is positive. The domestic production capacity is high, and the overseas new project progress is uncertain. The high price suppresses demand, but overall, the short - term price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Short - term: oscillating upward; medium - term: the price center is expected to rise [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the price of ADC12 was flat, the average price of SMM AOO decreased, the warehouse receipts decreased, and an Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is strong. The supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and the demand is expected to improve. The inventory shows different trends. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Short - term and medium - term: oscillating upward [14][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector cools down, and zinc prices fall from a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the premium of zinc in different regions varied; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; LME no longer accepts the delivery of certain zinc brands. - **Main Logic**: The macro expectation is stable. The supply of zinc ore is still tight in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price may oscillate at a high level, but there is a downward pressure in the long - term. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [17][18]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector cools down and the social inventory increases, so lead prices are under pressure. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, the price of lead ingots decreased, the social inventory increased, and LME no longer accepts the delivery of a certain lead brand. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [19][20]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The expected policy competes with the weak reality, and nickel prices fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai nickel decreased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased; an Indonesian nickel company resumed production, and Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel ore production quota. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure is high, the demand is in the off - season, and the policy on nickel ore quota is uncertain. The price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [20][22][23]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The price of nickel iron continues to rise, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. - **Information Analysis**: The warehouse receipts of stainless - steel futures are unchanged, the spot price has a certain premium, the price of high - nickel pig iron increases, and the price of Indonesian domestic trade ore is expected to rise. - **Main Logic**: The cost support exists, the production may increase slightly, the demand is cautious, and the inventory may accumulate. The price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [24][25]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: The market competition intensifies, and tin prices adjust. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the position decreased; the spot price of tin decreased. - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is disturbed, the production is difficult to increase, and the demand is growing. The price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [25][26][27]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Commodity Indexes - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on January 19, 2026: The commodity index is 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index is 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial products index is 2316.27, down 0.28%. - The non - ferrous metal index on January 19, 2026 is 2799.05, with a daily increase of 0.04%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.36%, a monthly increase of 9.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.21% [152][153][155].

Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - January 16, 2026) - Royalties Inc. (CSE: RI) (OTCID: ROYIF) (or "the Company") is pleased to announce that it has hired SLR Consulting (Canada) Ltd. ('SLR') to provide an updated economic analysis based on information in the 2014 PEA using current metal pricing for sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of increased commodity prices on the economics of the Bilbao project.SLR will also carry out a high-level assessment of potential high iron-oxide ore processing techno ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - and medium - term, the supply - demand of tin ingots is expected to improve, and nickel and zinc have supply - related speculations. After a rapid price increase, profit - taking by funds led to an adjustment. However, the logic of a weak US dollar expectation and supply - disruption concerns remains unchanged. Opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel at low prices should be watched for, and downstream industrial customers should pay attention to restocking opportunities during the adjustment. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply - disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist, leading to an expected tightening of supply - demand and a positive outlook for their prices [2]. - For each metal: - Copper: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and the copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly [3][7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, and the alumina price is under pressure and expected to fluctuate [3][8]. - Aluminum: Inventory continues to accumulate, the aluminum price has declined, but in the short - term, it is expected to remain strong with fluctuations due to positive macro - expectations and a tight supply - demand outlook [3][12]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][14]. - Zinc: The LME has suspended the delivery of KZ and YP zinc, and the SHFE zinc price has broken through 25,000 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [3][17]. - Lead: Social inventory has significantly increased, limiting the upside potential of the lead price, and it is expected to fluctuate [3][22]. - Nickel: Policy expectations are in a game with the weak reality, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [3][23]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price continues to rise, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate [3][26]. - Tin: Supply remains in short - supply, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information analysis**: The US December CPI data was in line with expectations. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0 dollars/ton. December SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on January 15 had a higher average premium than the previous trading day. A Chilean copper mine's union will start a strike, and the production of a mine in Ecuador has been postponed [7]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting the copper price. On the supply - demand side, copper - mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to supply constraints and increasing disruptions [8]. Alumina - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot prices of alumina in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. - **Main logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, high - cost capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the cost support is weak. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. - **Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate due to an oversupply in reality and a low - range valuation [9]. Aluminum - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SMM AOO average price and the premium/discount of aluminum decreased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum bars in major domestic consumption areas increased, and the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts also increased. The Q1 2026 aluminum - ingot premium in Japanese ports increased significantly, and the December 2025 export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the US interest - rate cut expectation and China's new - infrastructure policies are positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas new - project progress is uncertain. On the demand side, high prices have suppressed demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the price center is expected to rise [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the prices of some aluminum - alloy products decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. An Indonesian electrolytic - aluminum project has started production [14]. - **Main logic**: The cost is supported by a tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is restricted by raw - material shortages and profit issues, and policies may also affect supply. The demand is mainly for刚需 in the short - term and is expected to improve marginally in the medium - term. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the warehouse - receipt inventory has increased. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - and medium - term, the aluminum - alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to cost support and a tight supply - demand balance [16]. Zinc - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot premiums of 0 zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc - ingot inventory decreased slightly. The LME has suspended the further delivery of certain zinc brands since January 14, 2026 [19]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is relatively stable. The zinc - ore supply is tight, and the smelter's profit has declined. The domestic zinc - ingot supply pressure is not significant in the short - term. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. In the short - term, the zinc price may remain high and fluctuate, and in the long - term, it may decline [20]. - **Outlook**: In January, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate as the production has increased slightly, the demand is in the off - season, but exports and the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector support the price [21]. Lead - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the price of waste electric - vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of SMM1 lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. The LME has suspended the further delivery of a certain lead brand since January 14, 2026 [22]. - **Main logic**: The spot premium and the original - recycled lead price difference have increased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The supply has increased as some smelters have resumed production, and the demand is mixed, with a decline in electric - bicycle orders but an improvement in automobile - battery orders. Overall, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Outlook**: As the lead - ingot production recovers and the demand weakens marginally, but the waste - battery cost remains high, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. Nickel - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts and the LME nickel inventory increased. An Indonesian nickel - mining company has fully resumed operations, and Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel - ore production quota in 2026. The SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [24]. - **Main logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure as domestic and Indonesian production remains high. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. The Indonesian nickel - ore quota is uncertain, and its actual implementation needs to be monitored [25]. - **Outlook**: In January, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate as the fundamentals are not significantly improved, but the Indonesian policy may affect the supply - demand balance [25]. Stainless Steel - **Information analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On January 15, the spot price of stainless steel in Foshan had a certain discount compared to the futures contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [26]. - **Main logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the increase in nickel - iron price. The production in December decreased, and there may be a slight increase in January. The terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level [26]. - **Outlook**: In January, the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate as the production may increase slightly, the demand is weak in the off - season, but the cost is supported [26]. Tin - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the SHFE tin warehouse receipts increased, and the SHFE tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots increased [27]. - **Main logic**: The supply of tin is a major concern. Supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa are expected to limit production. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic situation and the growth of industries such as semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles. Overall, the tin price is expected to be strong [28]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain [28]. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial - product index of CITIC Futures all decreased. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.09% on the day, 2.13% in the past 5 days, 12.72% in the past month, and 6.27% since the beginning of the year [156][158].

近期，供应风险与避险需求共振催化，有色矿业板块开启结构性行情， "家里有矿，2025年涨超有色"的矿业ETF（561330）大涨超3%，资金持续布局，近 20日净流入超8亿元。 供应风险与避险需求共振，有色金属开启结构性行情 近期智利Mantoverde铜矿工潮引发市场关注。Capstone Copper Corp.旗下该矿约22%的劳动力计划自1月2日起罢工，公司表示将以安全方式逐步降低负荷， 预计维持30%左右的产量，并继续保持谈判。该矿2025年铜产量指引为2.9万–3.2万吨，若罢工延长，可能对明年铜矿供应造成压力，进一步加剧市场紧张预 期。 铝市场近期表现强劲，价格与利润同步上行。当前全球铝库存处于低位，为铝价提供支撑，而铜铝比仍位于历史高位，预示铝价具备补涨潜力。美国地区铝 现货升水居高不下，若后续因电力紧张导致减产，铝价的向上弹性或将进一步释放。 贵金属方面，尽管短期面临指数再平衡与保证金上调等技术性压力，但弱于预期的就业数据及持续的地缘不确定性继续推动金价走强。2025年全球黄金ETF 资金流入规模创历史纪录，央行购金行为依然活跃。在美联储降息预期与避险需求叠加的背景下，贵金属整体维持牛市格局 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of pre - exporting has resurfaced, and the expectation of supply - demand improvement has pushed up base metals. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. There are long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin, and low - buying opportunities in nickel. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin may tighten, so their prices are expected to rise [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and copper prices remain high. - **Analysis**: The US CPI in December showed certain trends; the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0; China's electrolytic copper production increased in December; spot copper had a certain premium; there were strikes at a Chilean copper mine and a delay in the second - phase project of a copper mine in Ecuador. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply is tightening, and refined copper supply is expected to contract. Although demand is currently weak, future supply - demand is expected to be tight. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8][9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating. - **Analysis**: Alumina prices in different regions showed changes on January 14, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation is low, price fluctuations may increase. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [10]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at high levels. - **Analysis**: Aluminum prices and premiums changed on January 14; domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased; the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased; the aluminum ingot premium in Japan rose; China's aluminum exports in December 2025 had a certain growth rate. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the expectation is positive. On the supply side, there are constraints on medium - term supply. On the demand side, high prices suppress demand, and inventory accumulates. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. In the medium term, the supply - demand may turn to shortage, and the price center may rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at high levels. - **Analysis**: The prices of aluminum alloy and related products changed on January 14; an Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production. - **Logic**: Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and demand may improve marginally. Inventory shows different trends in different types. - **Outlook**: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are still resilient, and zinc prices fluctuate at high levels. - **Analysis**: Spot zinc premiums in different regions were reported on January 14; zinc inventory decreased slightly; a zinc mine in Australia faced production pressure due to railway damage. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the expectation is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, while in the long term, there is a risk of decline. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile [18][19]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the upside space for lead prices is limited. - **Analysis**: The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries and lead ingots changed on January 14; lead inventory increased; lead consumption was weak. - **Logic**: The spot premium increased, the supply increased as smelters resumed production, and the demand was seasonally weak. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be volatile [20][21]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Policy expectations compete with weak reality, and nickel prices rise again. - **Analysis**: Nickel warehouse receipts and inventory increased on January 14; Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel ore production quota in 2026, and the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia is expected to rise. - **Logic**: The supply pressure remains, demand is in the off - season, and the policy on nickel ore quotas is uncertain. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia [22][23]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Ferronickel prices continue to rise, and the stainless - steel market surges. - **Analysis**: Stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased; spot stainless - steel had a certain premium; ferronickel prices rose; the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia is expected to rise. - **Logic**: Cost support exists, production may increase slightly in January, but demand is weak, and inventory may accumulate. - **Outlook**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia [24]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions continue, and tin prices soar. - **Analysis**: Tin warehouse receipts and positions increased on January 14; the spot tin price rose significantly. - **Logic**: Supply is restricted in multiple areas, such as Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa. Demand is expected to increase due to the economic environment and the development of related industries. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [25][26]. Market Monitoring - Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2809.04, up 1.08%; the industrial products index was 2362.72, up 0.62%; the PPI commodity index was 1466.29, up 0.70%. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 14 was 2851.75, with a daily increase of 1.52%, a 5 - day increase of 2.83%, a 1 - month increase of 11.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.17% [152][153].