证券研究报告|行业深度报告 社会服务 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2026年2月25日 2H25国内高端消费显著提升， 富人资产修复背景下有望延续增势 证券分析师： 姚婧 执业证书编号：S0210525060002 李天阳 执业证书编号：S0210525080001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 Ø 高端消费市场整体企稳回暖，大中华区复苏动能强劲。 2 华福证券 华福证券 • 2025年下半年起，主要奢侈品集团在亚太区（剔除日本）的销售增速显著改善，LVMH、历峰等集团增速在连续7个 季度后首次转正。 中国区市场的改善已成为全球奢侈品集团业绩修复的关键变量，各大品牌普遍看好中国市场的长期 潜力。 国内高端商场零售额增速亦在下半年显著提升。 2025年恒隆地产内地商场租户零售额同比增长4%，日均客流 量创历史新高；太古地产旗下多数商场在下半年显著提速，其中上海兴业太古汇凭借标志性项目"路易号"拉动，零 售额大增49.6%。 Ø 财富效应驱动高端消费需求回升，高频指标印证修复。 • 富人资产增速、海南离岛免税数据、澳门博彩业数据、高档酒店数据等可做高端消费高频跟踪；二奢数据反映大 ...

美股双重上市细则披露，2 位高管任命落 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | 本报告导读： 公司披露美股双重上市细则，旨在提升全球交易流动性。近期公司 CFO 与 TUMI 总裁任命落地，我们预计 25Q4 业绩表现延续 Q3 改善趋势，双重上市有利估值修 复。 投资要点： | 风险提示。零售环境恶化，行业竞争加剧，品牌合作关系恶化。 | | --- | | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 3589 | 3481 | 3651 | 3824 | | (+/-)% | -2.5% | -3.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% ...

证券研究报告 可选消费 海外看中国：高端消费复苏启示录 可选消费 增持 (维持) 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 惠普 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090006 SFC No. BSE005 孙丹阳 研究员 SAC No. S0570519010001 sundanyang@htsc.com SFC No. BQQ696 +(86) 21 2897 2038 张霜凝* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070015 zhangshuangning@htsc.com 华泰研究 复盘 2025 年海外集团在华经营表现，我们认为我国高端消费初显回暖信号。 以 LVMH 为例，FY3Q25 中国区销售额回正，录得中-高个位数同比增长 （vs1H25 亚太区：-9%），改善趋势逐步显现。品类上看，消费者重视价 值与体验，从面子走向里子，高端服务消费领先复苏，高端商品表现分化。 拉长看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The luxury brand Prada has experienced significant changes in its stock performance since the last analysis in May 2024, indicating a shift in market perception and potential investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Prada is identified as a luxury brand with a focus on standing out in the market, suggesting a competitive positioning strategy [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analysis is supported by insights from a macroeconomist with over 20 years of experience in investment management, stock broking, and investment banking, enhancing the credibility of the investment perspective [1]. - The analyst also runs a profile focused on generational opportunities in the green economy, indicating a broader investment theme that may influence luxury brands like Prada [1].

Core Insights - The article highlights the resurgence of traditional food brands and the emergence of new popular dining spots in Shanghai during the Spring Festival, showcasing a vibrant consumer atmosphere and increased foot traffic in commercial areas [2][3][4]. Group 1: Traditional Brands - Established brands like Xiao Shao Xing and De Xing Guan have successfully attracted large crowds, with long queues forming outside their locations on Shanxi South Road, which has become a new hotspot for dining [2][3]. - Xiao Shao Xing has adapted to modern consumer preferences by introducing new menu items such as baked crème brûlée and osmanthus rice milk, appealing to younger customers and international tourists [2]. - De Xing Guan experienced a surge in popularity due to a mention in a popular drama, leading to increased customer traffic and adjustments in operating hours to accommodate demand [3]. Group 2: New Consumption Scenes - New consumption brands in Shanghai are creating innovative shopping experiences, such as the themed pop-up events at BFC Financial Center, which combine traditional elements with modern trends to attract consumers [4]. - The introduction of pop-up stores, like the one by Lao Pu Huang Jin, has significantly increased foot traffic, with customers often waiting hours to enter, benefiting surrounding shops as well [5][6]. - The LV giant "Louis" continues to draw crowds, with all reservation slots for its exhibition fully booked during the Spring Festival, indicating strong interest from both local and international visitors [6]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The festive atmosphere and new shopping experiences have encouraged local residents to stay in Shanghai for the holiday, contributing to a vibrant local economy [4]. - Consumers are increasingly engaging with new brands and experiences, leading to a shift in shopping habits and preferences during the festive season [5][6].

以下文章来源于i黑马 ，作者江南春 i黑马 . 低欲望社会 ， 不等于没机会。 消费分级 ， 需求迁移 ， 才是最大的商业机遇 。 当人们不买房子，不追奢侈品的时候，钱都流向了哪里？ 第一，二 手经济 日本二手奢侈品市场，以 大黑屋 为代表，收入暴涨。 在中国， 红布林 、 胖虎， 同样业务大涨。 让创业者不再孤独@i黑马 江南春 分众传媒董事长 黑马导师 整个社会都在喊没钱了，为什么这些公司反而年赚百亿？ 日本"失落 30年的秘密" ， 就在这八个行业里面 。 买不起爱马仕、 LV ， 但 抢着买二手。 但在日常消费品领域， 闲鱼 日活破亿， 转转 的 GMV 也大幅飙升。 闲置不是垃圾，是流动的黄金。 第二 ， 宠物经济 年轻人不太生孩子，但可以给猫买高级的罐头。 日本 Inaba 靠猫粮上市，中国乖宝 （ 中宠 ） 股价强劲 。 诚实一口、凯锐思、 疯狂小狗、 伯纳天纯、比瑞吉、 网易严选、 卫仕 等宠物品牌，销量持续攀升。 宠物不仅是主粮零食营养品，以 新瑞鹏 为代表的宠物医院，以 泰 淘气 为 代表 的宠物益生菌 、 保健品 ， 都大幅飙升 。 宠物开支逆势增长， " 毛孩子 " 才是真刚需。 第三 ...

Group 1 - French brand Martell collaborates with Lin Gengxin to present the "Martell New Year Feast" event, featuring six chefs from different regions showcasing local flavors paired with Martell cognac [3] - The event emphasizes the connection between home-cooked dishes and family emotions, aligning with Martell's focus on culinary traditions [3] - Limited edition designs of Martell's products, including the "Liu Guang" Year of the Horse edition, were unveiled during the event [3] Group 2 - Rémy Martin launches a collaboration with artist Xue Song for the "Yi Ma Dang Xian" limited edition gift box series, incorporating the brand's centaur logo with Chinese zodiac culture [5] - The series includes Rémy Martin X.O, CLUB, and V.S.O.P cognacs, with packaging designs inspired by a pop art collage created by Xue Song [5] - A cocktail recipe featuring Rémy Martin V.S.O.P, coconut water, and lime juice was also introduced [5] Group 3 - The Peninsula Shanghai introduces a series of Spring Festival decorations and festive dishes, including a 6.5-meter high paper-cut art installation [7] - The hotel offers two eight-course New Year's Eve dinner packages featuring premium ingredients like abalone and sea cucumber [7] - Traditional performances, including lion dances and musical accompaniment, are scheduled during the festival period [7] Group 4 - Shangri-La Hotel in Shanghai launches a new dim sum menu featuring over a hundred Cantonese dishes, designed by Executive Chef Hu Jinxian [9] - The menu includes new and improved dishes, maintaining traditional Cantonese cooking techniques while incorporating local flavors [9] - The restaurant has been consistently recognized in the Shanghai Michelin Guide since 2017 [9] Group 5 - JW Marriott Marquis Hotel in Shanghai hosts a limited-time tasting event featuring the traditional "Red Braised Catfish" dish, prepared by a master of the craft [11] - The event showcases the integration of traditional cooking techniques with local flavors, enhancing the dining experience [11] - Guests can enjoy the dish alongside a selection of wines from Longting Winery [11] Group 6 - Raffles Hotel Singapore announces the opening of a new restaurant, "1887 by André," set to launch on March 31, 2026, led by Chef André Chiang [13] - The restaurant aims to present traditional flavors through modern techniques, reflecting Singapore's multicultural heritage [13] - The design of the restaurant combines historical elements with modern aesthetics, accommodating 42 guests [13] Group 7 - Penfolds releases a Year of the Horse themed limited edition wine gift box series, featuring several wine varieties with packaging inspired by traditional paper-cut art [15] - The Bin 389 wine in the series is a cross-regional blend aged in barrels previously used for Grange [15] - The series aims to combine zodiac culture with modern design, providing festive gifting options [15] Group 8 - Prada launches a limited edition Chinese New Year gift box in Shanghai and Singapore, containing various traditional sweets and a festive greeting card [17] - The Shanghai store hosts a flower arrangement workshop to celebrate the holiday, blending traditional and modern styles [17] - The gift box and associated activities aim to offer consumers festive gifting and experiential options [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and the evolving consumer behavior in China [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Shifts and Opportunities - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as consumer demand is shifting towards different sectors [4]. - The article identifies eight key industries that are capitalizing on changing consumer preferences, highlighting that demand migration presents significant business opportunities [5]. Group 2: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, exemplified by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a dramatic revenue increase. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7][8]. - **Pet Economy**: With declining birth rates, spending on pets is rising. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are benefiting from this trend, with various pet brands seeing continuous sales growth [12][13][14][15][16]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating that aging populations can create substantial economic opportunities rather than being a burden [17][18][19]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changes in population structure and rising health awareness have led to the growth of sugar-free beverages and functional foods in both Japan and China [21][22]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, such as collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices, remains strong, indicating that consumers prioritize personal care even in economic downturns [23][24][25][26]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: Companies in the outdoor equipment sector, like Snow Peak in Japan, are thriving as consumers seek leisure activities despite economic constraints [29][30][31]. - **Convenience Economy**: The rise of frozen foods and smart home appliances reflects a shift towards convenience, with brands like Anjijia and Kewotai seeing steady growth [39][40][42]. - **Lazy Economy**: The trend of reduced cooking time among younger generations has led to increased demand for time-saving products, suggesting that time-saving solutions may hold more commercial value than cost-saving ones in a low-desire economy [39][42]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The article argues against the notion that the current market is in a "cold winter," suggesting that the true winners in a low-desire era are those who can identify and invest in counter-cyclical opportunities [44].

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards second-hand goods [6][7][8][9]. - **Pet Economy**: With declining birth rates, young people are spending more on pets, leading to significant growth in pet food and healthcare products. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend [11][12][14][15]. - **Adult Care Products**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a growing demand for adult care products in China, with companies like Kexin showing potential for growth [16][17][18]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: The rise in health consciousness has led to increased demand for sugar-free beverages and functional drinks. Brands like Dongfang Shuye and Jianchun are gaining traction in this sector [21][22]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, including collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices, is on the rise. Companies like Jinbo Biological are seeing significant market value growth [23][25]. - **Outdoor and Leisure Products**: The outdoor equipment market is thriving, with brands like Kailas and Camel experiencing rapid sales growth, as consumers seek leisure activities despite economic constraints [25][26][27]. - **Emotional Economy**: Brands like Labubu and Rio are tapping into the emotional needs of consumers, providing products that offer comfort and joy, even in a tight economic climate [28][29][30]. - **Convenience Economy**: The demand for convenience products, such as frozen foods and smart home appliances, is increasing as younger generations spend less time cooking. Companies like Anjijia and Kewot are benefiting from this trend [33][35][36]. Group 2: Market Trends - The article emphasizes that the current economic climate, often viewed as a "winter," presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors. The key to success lies in recognizing and seizing these opportunities [39].

Core Insights - The article highlights the early onset of consumer festivities in Nanjing as luxury brands and local high-end gold and trendy toy brands prepare for the upcoming Lunar New Year, indicating a shift in marketing strategies towards preemptive engagement with consumers [3][4]. Group 1: Marketing Strategies - The marketing campaigns for the Lunar New Year have evolved from last-minute efforts to a well-planned strategy with fixed timelines, starting as early as January [4]. - International brands like Prada and Loewe have launched their New Year-themed activities in early January, strategically positioning themselves to capture consumer attention right after New Year's Day [4]. - The focus of these marketing efforts is to create high-quality content and experiences that define the festive atmosphere well before the peak shopping period [4]. Group 2: Emerging Consumer Trends - The structure of Lunar New Year consumption is changing, with high-end gold and trendy toys emerging as significant growth sectors alongside traditional luxury goods [6]. - Nanjing's Deji Plaza is becoming a battleground for high-end gold brands, with new entrants like Lin Chao Jewelry, which emphasizes traditional craftsmanship and limited edition pieces, indicating a shift towards collectible and artistic gold items [6]. - The trendy toy market is also thriving, with brands like Pop Mart opening large stores to enhance consumer experience and attract younger shoppers, transforming toy buying into a social and entertainment activity [8]. Group 3: Brand Differentiation - Different brands are employing distinct strategies for the same Lunar New Year theme, with luxury brands focusing on cultural symbolism and craftsmanship to reinforce their high-end positioning [10]. - Collaborations like CASETiFY and My Little Pony exemplify emotional resonance, making festive greetings accessible and personalized through everyday products [12]. - Sports and trendy brands emphasize functionality and immediate emotional connections, as seen in Descente's "Bingwu Fire Horse" series, which integrates traditional elements with practical features for outdoor activities during the holiday [13].