同日，在岸人民币对美元、离岸人民币一并升值。截至当日9时35分，在岸人民币对美元报7.1263，日 内升值幅度为0.04%；离岸人民币对美元报7.1322，日内升值幅度为0.08%。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）10月10日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场 人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1048元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1102元，调升54个基点。 ...

9月25日，中国银行研究院发布《2025年四季度经济金融展望报告》。 《报告》主要回顾了2025年三季 度全球和中国经济金融运行以及全球银行业运行情况，展望了2025年四季度经济金融形势以及全球银行 业发展趋势。报告称，展望四季度，随着政策持续发力，主要金融数据有望回暖，人民币汇率波动中走 升，将有望保持稳中有升态势。 展望四季度，随着政策持续发力，主要金融数据有望回暖，但预计将延续分化态势：一是融资总量稳步 扩张。四季度对全年及"十四五"经济目标完成至关重要，加之"十五五"规划将出台，预计增量政策将同 步推出，基建、房地产等重要领域有望迎来更多利好，将带动融资总量保持稳定增长，但信贷出现大幅 多增可能性较小。 二是重点领域和薄弱环节资金投放维持中高速增长。在结构性货币政策工具带动下，金融机构将持续加 大对科创、绿色、养老等领域的支持力度，预计相关领域信贷增速有望保持中高速增长，且将继续高于 全部贷款增速。随着北京、上海等地房地产政策持续放松，预计房地产贷款增速有望稳步回暖。 三是政府债券融资将继续保持高位。财政政策将持续强化逆周期调节，加之地方投资需求提速等因素带 动下，四季度政府债券发行规模预计将继续保持 ...

Core Viewpoint - In August, the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut strengthened, leading to a depreciation of the US dollar and an increase in the appreciation momentum of the Chinese yuan, while market expectations remained generally stable [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index fell from above 100 to 97.8, a cumulative decline of 2.2%, influenced by weaker employment data and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [1]. - The yuan's central parity rate appreciated for the fourth consecutive month, with an average daily appreciation of 8 basis points from August 1 to 20, and an accelerated average daily appreciation of 51 basis points in late August [2]. - By the end of August, the central parity rate and onshore and offshore yuan exchange rates reached 7.1030, 7.1330, and 7.1221 respectively, appreciating by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 1.2% compared to the end of the previous month [2]. Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - In August, banks recorded a surplus of $3.2 billion in foreign exchange payments, reversing a deficit of $7.7 billion from the previous month, with foreign currency payments contributing significantly to this surplus [10]. - Foreign investment in Chinese stocks reached a net inflow of $10.8 billion, the highest since February, indicating increased foreign interest in Chinese equity assets [11]. - The overall net purchase of domestic stocks and bonds by foreign investors amounted to approximately $39 billion, dominating the inflow into emerging market investment portfolios [11]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Supply and Demand - The bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus narrowed to $16.8 billion, the lowest in four months, indicating a decrease in the willingness of market participants to settle foreign exchange [16]. - The ratio of foreign exchange receipts to payments fell to 52.6%, the lowest in five months, while the payment-to-purchase ratio rose to 62.0%, the highest in seven months, suggesting a lack of accumulated expectations for yuan appreciation [16][18]. Group 4: Trade and Investment Trends - The surplus in goods trade payments decreased by $16.5 billion to $72.9 billion, reflecting a slowdown in export revenue collection [15]. - Direct investment payments recorded a deficit of $7.5 billion, with foreign income dropping to $50.2 billion, the lowest in five years, indicating a slowdown in capital inflows [12].

Group 1 - The potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September 2025 is a key external factor influencing the Chinese economy, with a 92% probability of a rate cut reflected in the U.S. interest rate futures market [1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with a 0.8 percentage point decline in GDP growth from the first to the second quarter, and the core PCE price index year-on-year growth falling to 2.3%, creating room for the Fed to ease monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The narrowing of the China-U.S. 10-year government bond yield spread from 2.1 percentage points in 2023 to 0.3 percentage points is a significant positive development, potentially allowing for a 150 basis point reduction in China's reserve requirement ratio [3] - The aviation and real estate sectors are expected to benefit first, with the former holding $38.7 billion in dollar-denominated debt and the latter having approximately $52.6 billion in outstanding dollar debt, alleviating financial cost pressures from exchange rate fluctuations [3] Group 3 - Over the past 12 months, northbound capital has net flowed into the A-share market by 243 billion yuan, with the consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, and high-end equipment manufacturing sectors accounting for 62% of this inflow [3] - In the MSCI China index, stocks with foreign ownership exceeding 5% have an average valuation below the central value of the past five years by 23%, indicating potential for value reassessment during the Fed's rate cut cycle [3] Group 4 - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index, if it rises to the 101-103 range, could reduce the average procurement cost of basic imported goods by 6.3%, significantly impacting strategic materials like iron ore and crude oil [4] - The apparel and textile sectors may face pressure, with a 1% appreciation in the RMB potentially eroding profit margins by 4.7%, affecting over 120,000 export enterprises [4] Group 5 - The manufacturing PMI has remained above the threshold for four consecutive months, with the new export orders index rising to 51.6, indicating effective structural adjustments [4] - The recent 9.2% increase in the global commodity price index may offset some benefits from alleviating input deflationary pressures [4]

本报记者 潘福达 昨天，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中升破7.1，为2024年11月7日以来首次。人民币汇率近期出现一波升值 态势，人民币对美元中间价升至7.1附近，离岸人民币对美元汇率升值至7.1左右。 专家表示，近期人民币汇率快速上涨主要受内外多重因素共同驱动。展望未来，人民币汇率或回归长期 升值轨道，将在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。 人民币对美元持续走强 9月17日，离岸人民币对美元升破7.10关口，最高升至7.0964。9月16日，在岸人民币对美元即期汇率16 时30分收盘报7.1163，较上一交易日上涨65个基点，创下去年11月6日以来的日间收盘价新高。 4月美实施"对等关税"以来，人民币汇率大致经历两轮升值。第一轮始于5月10日中美日内瓦经贸谈判的 开启，人民币对美元中间价从7.21缓慢持续地升值到8月20日的7.14左右；第二轮从8月下旬至今，人民 币对美元中间价从7.14升值到7.1附近，期间伴随的是A股市场走势逐步上扬。 从在岸和离岸人民币对美元汇率走势来看，人民币对美元汇率保持稳中偏强态势。 人民币中间价正逼近7.1水平。其中，9月9日，人民币对美元汇率中间价报7.1008，刷新去年11月7日以 ...

9月17日，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中升破7.1，为2024年11月7日以来首次。人民币汇率近期出现了一 波升值态势，人民币对美元中间价升至7.1附近，离岸人民币对美元汇率升值至7.10左右。 9月16日，人民币对美元即期汇率16时30分收盘报7.1163，较上一交易日上涨65个基点，创下去年11月6 日以来的日间收盘价新高。进入夜盘交易时间后，人民币对美元即期汇率一度升至7.1138，刷新去年11 月6日以来的盘中新高。9月17日，在岸人民币对美元开盘上涨63点，报7.1100，上一交易日16时30分收 盘报7.1163。 4月美实施"对等关税"以来，人民币汇率大致经历了两轮升值。第一轮始于5月10日中美日内瓦经贸谈判 的开启，即中美关税冲突缓和后，人民币对美元中间价从7.21缓慢持续地升值到8月20日的7.14左右；第 二轮则从8月下旬至今，人民币对美元中间价从7.14升值到7.1附近，期间伴随的是A股市场走势逐步上 扬。 从在岸和离岸人民币对美元汇率走势来看，人民币对美元汇率保持稳中偏强态势。离岸人民币市场通常 是指在中国境外经营人民币的存放款业务的市场，汇率受市场供需关系影响更大，与国际金融市场的相 关 ...

the the state of the AND STORE THE and and the company e No t 2017-01-11 the state of the ME Spec 人民币杂志首席金融观察员 大河 中国金融网版权图片 9月17日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中突破7.10关口，最高升至7.0995，创下2024年11月以来的新高。与此同时，在岸人民币兑美元收盘价报7.1163，较前一 交易日上涨65点，同样刷新去年11月6日以来的日间收盘价纪录。这一突破标志着人民币汇率在经历年初波动后，已连续突破多个关键阻力位，展现出强劲 的升值动能与稳定性。 政策调控与市场预期引导。中国央行通过中间价调控释放积极信号。9月17日人民币对美元中间价报7.1013，较前一交易日调升14个基点，连续两个交易日 升值。这种 "偏强方向" 的引导有效改善了市场情绪，带动结汇需求增加。此外，香港特区政府在施政报告中宣布设立新的 "人民币业务资金安排"，通过货 币互换协议向企业提供长期人民币融资，进一步巩固了离岸市场的流动性。 对金融市场的多维影响 资本市场迎来外资流入潮。人民币升值预期推动外资加速配置中国资产。 ...

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's Chief Economist for China predicts a strengthening of the RMB against the USD, forecasting an exchange rate of 7.0 by the end of 2025 and 6.7 by the end of 2026 [3][6] - The improvement in the RMB exchange rate is attributed to better-than-expected export performance and a decrease in the market's expectation of RMB depreciation, leading to increased foreign exchange inflows [5][6] - The People's Bank of China has renewed bilateral currency swap agreements with the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank, and Hungarian National Bank, which will enhance bilateral trade and investment facilitation [7][8] Group 2 - The bilateral currency swap agreements include a scale of 350 billion RMB/45 billion Euros with the EU, 150 billion RMB/17 billion Swiss Francs with Switzerland, and 40 billion RMB/190 billion Hungarian Forints with Hungary, with varying effective periods [7] - The seasonal characteristics of exports and the strong demand for profit recovery at year-end are expected to drive a concentrated foreign exchange settlement by exporters in the fourth quarter [6] - The current low level of short positions against the offshore RMB provides room for further strengthening of the RMB exchange rate [6]

国金证券首席经济学家宋雪涛认为，人民币汇率的三大支柱，中美利差、政策风险溢价、购买力平价均 在朝着有利于升值的方向变化，央行中间价和外资加仓中国股票是额外的催化剂。展望后市，弱美元环 境仍支撑人民币升值，但出口预期偏弱、内需待修复等因素要求升值节奏保持平稳。 同日，在岸人民币对美元、离岸人民币对美元汇率高开升值。截至当日9时40分，在岸人民币对美元报 7.1185，日内升值幅度为0.03%；离岸人民币对美元报7.1161，日内升值幅度为0.06%。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）9月11日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人 民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1034元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1062元，调升28基点。 ...

Domestic Insights - The August PMI manufacturing price index increased, likely due to the upward shift in upstream commodity prices, which may hinder future corporate profit recovery[2] - The current domestic market is in a new bull market phase, with wealth effects expected to boost service consumption as a highlight for Q4 economic growth[2] - September is a critical observation window for RMB appreciation, especially if US-China negotiations show substantial progress[2] Overseas Insights - In August, non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a moderate slowdown in employment rather than a rapid decline[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July, reinforcing concerns about employment risks discussed at the Jackson Hole meeting[15] - The weak non-farm data suggests the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 75 basis points this year, with weak dollar trading likely to continue in the coming weeks[15] Liquidity and Market Trends - The overall liquidity tightened this week, with the benchmark interest rate down approximately 7.412 basis points[19] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased by about 2417.16 billion CNY, reaching 73138.95 billion CNY[20] - Government bond issuance pressure decreased, with a net repayment of 1184.54 billion CNY and a planned issuance of 8376.7 billion CNY next week[21] Asset Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.83%[39] - Gold prices showed an upward trend, while international crude oil prices experienced a downward trend[37] - The US 10-year Treasury yield declined, reflecting a mixed performance in European bond yields[39]