晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 04 日 核心结论 分析师 【汽车】九号公司（689009.SH）首次覆盖报告：智能筑基，多元绽放 预计 25-27 年归母净利润 17.9/24.2/32.0 亿，对应 pe18.0/13.8/10.7X，把 握优质资产低估机会，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 【汽车】敏实集团（00425.HK）首次覆盖报告：电池盒欧洲出海贡献增量， 机器人&液冷&低空布局可期 我 们 预 计 2025-2027 年 公 司 营 收 分 别 为 261/301/348 亿 元 ， 同 比 +13%/+15%/+16% ， 归 母 净 利 润 27.2/32.3/37.3 亿 元 ， 同 比 +17%/+19%/+16%，对应当前 PE16.7/14.0/12.1X。首次覆盖，给予"买入" 评级。 【食品饮料】IFBH（6603.HK）2025 年报点评：主品牌维持增长，渠道开 拓持续推进 1）分销商网络由 3 个增至 7 个合作伙伴，Innococo 与中粮、屈臣氏等订立 策略性合作协议，渠道开拓持续推进。2）积极探索内地 OEM 合作，推动 精选产品线实现本地化生产。3）202 ...

以下文章来源于懒人养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒人养基 . 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 懒人养基 来源：雪球 雪球2022年、2025度基金影响力用户，私企业主，经济学硕士，《基金投资全攻略》作者。早期靠创业获取主动收入，从17年开始，逐步将经营产生的余 钱、闲钱，几乎全部逢低买入权益基金，从赚取主动收入慢慢向赚取被动收入过渡。价值投资践行者。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 性亏损 ， 还会在反复追涨杀跌中耗尽本金与信心 。 面对周一可能的市场波动 ， 不必过度恐慌 ， 但必须理性行动 。 即便出现低开高走的行情 ， 也绝不能心存侥幸 ， 认为危机已经过去 。 投资 不是赌运气 ， 而是管理概率 。 侥幸是投资最大的陷阱 ， 一次躲过不代表次次平安 。 正确的做法是 ， 趁市场情绪缓和 、 流动性充裕的窗口 ， 果断调降风险持仓 ， 减持高波动 、 高估值 、 高杠杆品种 ， 增加债券 、 高股息蓝筹 、 现金类等防御性资产 ， 让组合回归 " 进可攻 、 退可守 " 、 能够让你安然入睡的平衡状态 。 投资的终极目标 ， 不是某一次暴利 ， ...

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway held a total of 42 US stocks with a market value of approximately $274.16 billion at the end of 2025, an increase of over $6.8 billion from the end of Q3 2025 [2] - The company has a significant focus on the financial sector, with a holding value close to $112.2 billion, accounting for about 41% of its total portfolio [2] - At the end of Q4 2025, Berkshire's largest holding remained Apple, valued at approximately $61.96 billion, representing about 23% of its total holdings, with a reduction of about 4.32% in shares [2][3] Group 2 - The second and third largest holdings are American Express and Bank of America, both financial companies, with a combined holding value exceeding $84.5 billion, accounting for about 31% of the total portfolio [2] - In Q4 2025, Berkshire maintained its position in 28 companies, reduced holdings in 9 companies, increased holdings in 4 companies, and initiated a position in 1 new company [2] Group 3 - Duan Yongping's investment firm held 14 US stocks with a total market value of approximately $17.49 billion at the end of 2025, an increase of over $2.8 billion from the end of Q3 2025 [8] - The focus of Duan's investments is primarily in the information technology sector, with a total holding value close to $11 billion, accounting for about 63% of his portfolio [9] - Duan's top three holdings are Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, and Nvidia, with Apple being the largest at approximately $8.8 billion, representing about 50% of his investment portfolio [9][10] Group 4 - Duan significantly increased his stake in Nvidia, with shares rising from approximately 597,800 to 7,237,100, marking an increase of over 11 times, and its market value reaching about $1.35 billion [9] - In Q4 2025, Duan initiated positions in three AI-related companies and increased holdings in six companies, while reducing positions in five [9]

Group 1 - In 2026, China is expected to return to the "value investment year" of 2019, driven by strong cash flow from manufacturing and consumption sectors, which will attract value investors again [1][13] - The foundation of Buffett's "value investment" is stable cash flow from "big DCF assets," which are characterized by low capital expenditures and high cash flow [2][14] - China's large refining sector possesses a global competitive advantage and is also a stable cash flow "big DCF asset," benefiting from the appreciation of the RMB and increased export capabilities [3][15] Group 2 - The chemical industry, particularly segments like fluorochemicals, synthetic resins, and plastics, has seen a significant recovery in free cash flow, with many sectors recovering to historical percentiles above 60% and some above 90% [5][17] - The large refining sector is anticipated to experience a "Buffett moment" in 2026, coinciding with a potential global oil price supercycle as geopolitical tensions ease [4][16] - The investment logic for Zijin Mining includes short-term supply concerns due to production halts at major copper mines, leading to potential price increases [21] - For Luoyang Molybdenum, the investment rationale is based on rising copper and gold prices, with a clear growth path through acquisitions and capacity upgrades [25][26] - Nanjing Steel's strategy focuses on resource integration and creating a stable return on equity through a comprehensive industrial chain [29][30] - Xinhua Insurance is positioned to benefit from strong investment returns due to its high equity elasticity and stable premium inflows [33][34] - Guobang Pharmaceutical is expected to see profit elasticity due to the clearing of excess production capacity in the animal health sector and a rebound in antibiotic demand [37][39] - Enjie Technology is set to improve its market position through cost reduction and product innovation in the lithium battery separator market [43][44] - Haiguang Information aims to expand its market share through AI infrastructure investments and new product launches [47][48] - Nanya New Materials is positioned for growth with innovative formulations and high-end product recognition in the electronic materials sector [50][51] - Xirui, a leader in the private jet market, is expected to benefit from increasing demand and improved delivery capabilities [55][57] - Yihai International is likely to see performance elasticity from product price increases and improved operational metrics [61][64] - Juxing Technology is expected to maintain steady growth through its leading position in hand tools and electric tools, supported by a healthy demand recovery [65][68] - Gobi Jia, focusing on special glass products, is set to benefit from increased demand in the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors [69][72]

Group 1 - The core investment philosophy of the fund manager emphasizes "independent thinking, probabilistic thinking, contrarian courage, and forward-looking vision," focusing on balanced allocation and risk control through a multi-faceted stock selection framework of "cigar butt stocks (static undervaluation) + quality stocks (steady growth) + technology stocks (forward-looking layout)" [2][14][15] - The representative product, Guotou Ruijin New Silk Road Fund, has achieved a total return of 148.37% and an annualized return of 8.93% since its inception, significantly outperforming the average of its peers and ranking in the top 15.95% of its category [3][29][30] - The fund's performance over various time frames shows returns of 24.86% over the past year, 12.82% over three years, 24.66% over five years, and 109.60% over ten years, all substantially exceeding the performance benchmark [4][29] Group 2 - The fund maintains a high equity position, consistently above 90%, focusing on stock selection rather than market timing, which reflects its core investment philosophy of emphasizing industry allocation and individual stock selection [37][38] - The industry allocation strategy is characterized by balanced diversification, with the largest sector allocation typically remaining below 25%, thus effectively controlling risks associated with overexposure to any single sector [38][41] - The fund's stock selection is diverse, focusing on long-term value, with a rigorous selection standard that prioritizes long-term factors over short-term market trends [53][54] Group 3 - The fund has demonstrated a low turnover rate, maintaining it below 100% since 2022, which indicates a stable investment style and effective cost management [66][67] - The fund has provided consistent dividends, with a total of 9 distributions amounting to 110 million yuan, exceeding 1.4 times the current fund net value, showcasing its commitment to returning profits to investors [5][72] - The investment management company, Guotou Ruijin, emphasizes value investing and fundamental research, aiming to create long-term stable returns for investors [80][81]

不少朋友私信问，今年的市场主线到底在哪？是追热点还是蹲价值？其实答案就藏在巴菲特的投资逻辑里——找那些能躺赚稳定现金流、不用老砸钱扩产的 公司。而2026年，这个机会正实实在在落在大炼化板块身上。 春节后的A股走得有点意思，科创50、中证500一路突突，大盘价值却蔫蔫的，TMT和中游制造涨得欢，消费金融反倒拖了后腿。 聊价值投资，绕不开巴菲特的"大DCF资产"逻辑，说人话就是：买现金流充沛、资本开支（CAPEX）低的现金奶牛。 图1：1962年巴菲特入股伯克希尔哈撒韦后，尤为偏爱的标杆重仓股 来源：Wind、证券时报、贝特曼、智通财经，截至：2026.2.25 | 序号 | 首次买入时间 | 公司名称 | 代码 | 一级行业 | 二级行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1964 | 美国运通/American Express | AXP.N | से हैं | 非银金融 | | 2 | 1972 | 华盛顿邮报/Washington Post | GHC.N | 可选消费 | 媒体 | | 3 | 1988 | 可口可乐/Coca-Cola | KO ...

I analyze securities based on value investing, an owner's mindset, and a long-term horizon. I don't write sell articles, as those are considered short theses, and I never recommend shorting.I was initially interested in a career in politics, but after reaching a dead-end in 2019 and seeing the financial drain this posed, I choose a path that would make my money work for me and protect me from more setbacks. This brought me to study value investing, in order to grow wealth with risk management in mind.From 2 ...

智通财经APP注意到，英伟达(NVDA.US)在周三公布远超预期的业绩后，成为市场上最具增长潜力的股票之一。然而，其交易价格为何看起来像一只价值 股？ 这家芯片巨头的股价周四下跌 5.5%，创下 4 月 16 日以来的最大单日跌幅，并拖累标准普尔 500 指数一同走低。目前该股的价格约为预期收益的 22 倍，远 低于其 37 倍的五年平均水平，且仅略高于标普 500 指数的平均估值倍数。 由于分析师基于英伟达第一季度营收预期达到780亿美元（远超华尔街此前约730亿美元的共识预期）而纷纷上调盈利预测，这个市盈率数字预计将进一步下 降。 "如此强劲的业绩与股价表现乏力之间存在某种脱节，"持有英伟达股票的 Dakota Wealth Management 高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克表示。"你当然会认 为在这样的财报之后它会表现良好。公司展现出了非常强劲的增长。" 数据显示，英伟达现在的市盈率比标普 500 指数中约三分之一的股票都要便宜，但其过去 12 个月 65% 的营收增长率在该指数中排名第三。相比之下， Palantir 的营收扩张排名标普 500 第四，而其股价交易倍数约为预期收益的 98 倍。 M ...

在私募行业蓬勃发展的几十年中，公募基金经理"奔私"潮持续涌动，这背后既有个人在职业天花板的突围，亦有平台派系更迭引发的变动。从早年王亚伟、 邱国鹭开风气之先，到近年董承非、周应波等人自立门户，"公奔私"基金经理已经成为私募行业的一个重要派系，甚至不少是自身私募机构的核心人物，掌 舵着公司的整体投研方向。 私募排排网数据显示，截至2026年1月底，"公奔私"基金经理共有859位。其中，头部私募旗下的"公奔私"基金经理共有87位，占比10.13%。 接下来，笔者将划分百亿私募（规模100亿以上）、准百亿私募（规模50-100亿）两个规模组，为大家盘点头部私募（规模50亿以上）旗下"公奔私"基金经 理的代表人物。 | 8 | 崔童 | 股票 | 18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 | 邓晓峰 | 股票 | 25 | | 10 | 董承非 | 股票 | 24 | | 11 | 杜昌勇 | 股票 | 30 | | 12 | 杜骐臻 | 股票 | 14 | | 13 | 归江 | 股票 | 28 | | 14 | 韩冬 | 股票 | 18 | | 15 | 韩海峰 | 组合基金 | 12 ...

先看今日行情。截至收盘，沪指涨0.39%，深成指微跌0.06%，创业板指跌1.04%。两市成交2.51万亿， 比昨天缩了一点。港股那边表现不错，恒生指数涨0.95%，恒生科技涨0.56%。 板块分化很剧烈。周期股全线爆发，钢铁涨3.37%，煤炭涨3.2%，有色金属涨3.1%。小金属和稀土永磁 掀起涨停潮，多只个股封板。电力板块也活跃，多股涨停。另一边，算力硬件股承压回调，CPO、PCB 等方向跌幅居前。资金正从高位成长板块撤出，转向低估值周期方向，风格切换的信号很明确。 行情聊完，说点实在的。 当你死死抱住某个估值数字，拒绝正视产业逻辑的变化；当你坚信市场终将回归，却无视基本面已经松 动；当你说"长期持有"其实是在"盲目死扛"——那根绳子就不再是牵引工具，而是绞索。 市场会用最残酷的方式告诉你：你啥也没掌控。 这不是否定价值投资。恰恰相反，真正懂价值的人，首先懂的是自己的局限。他们知道，价值不是一个 精确的坐标，而是一个模糊的区域。市场不是一条驯服的狗，而是一头难以预测的野兽。那根绳子不是 用来牵引市场的，而是用来在风暴中拉住自己、不被卷走的锚。 很多价值投资者喜欢讲一个比喻：股价是狗，价值是主人。狗有时候跑 ...