文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 格雷厄姆的低估值投资，主要擅长低市净 率投资。 当时的格雷厄姆，寻找的也是一些极端低 估的公司。 这些公司，账面上都有着容易变现的流动 资产。 买下公司的股票，成为大股东。 召开股东大会,变卖资产变现或者用流动 资产回购，就可以获得回报。 (2) 二战后: 低估值投资。 随着婴儿潮和"漂亮50"牛市，美股整体 估值逐渐提升。 捡烟蒂的投资机会，逐渐减少。 格雷厄姆的价值投资理念,逐渐变成了投 资一篮子「低市盈率、低市净率」的股 謡。 格雷厄姆的另一个徒弟,施洛斯,继承了 这种投资理念，后来演变成了指数基金中 的"价值指数"。 例如现在看到的300价值、价值100等策略 指数，其实就是来自于此。 (3) 用合理价格，买入优秀公司。 巴菲特受到查理·芒格的影响,开始接受 用合理价格，买入优秀公司。 跟格雷厄姆不同的是，查理·芒格认为， 优秀的企业，可以放宽买入的价格。 用合理价格买入优秀公司，也是划算的。 最终优秀的公司创造的价值，会远超开始 时付出的价格。 不过要注意的是，合理的价格买入优秀的 公司，不代表不看估值。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that different regional stock markets do not move in unison, and understanding multiple markets can provide investors with more opportunities [2][3] - Global investment can significantly reduce volatility risk, suggesting that investors should consider diversifying their portfolios internationally [2] - A free course is offered to teach methods for investing in global stock markets through index funds, along with supplementary materials like course notes and mind maps [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses various schools of thought within value investing, highlighting Graham's classic strategy evolving into value and dividend indices [4][5] - Value investing has yielded good returns in the A-share market over the long term, with multiple different schools emerging over the past century [5] Group 3 - Value investing 1.0, referred to as the "cigarette butt" strategy, involved picking up undervalued stocks during the post-war period when many companies had market values below their liquid assets [6][7] - Value investing 2.0 transitioned to a focus on low valuation investments, particularly in the 1960s during the "Nifty Fifty" bull market, where leading companies reached high price-to-earnings ratios [8][9] - Value investing 3.0, influenced by Charlie Munger, shifted towards buying excellent companies at reasonable prices, exemplified by Buffett's investment in See's Candies [11][12]

Summary of Huabei Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huabei Mining - **Industry**: Coal Mining and Coal Chemical Industry - **Date of Call**: September 19, 2025 Key Points Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Huabei Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 64.9% year-on-year to 1.03 billion yuan, primarily due to cyclical fluctuations in coal prices [2][6][25] - The company's gross profit sources are mainly from coal mining (60%) and coal chemical business (30%) [2][7] - The company has a total production capacity of 35.85 million tons across 17 coal mines, with an estimated recoverable reserve of approximately 57 years [2][7] Market Dynamics - The coking coal market was weak in the first half of 2025, with prices dropping from around 2,000 yuan to approximately 1,500 yuan by the end of 2024 [3][12] - Domestic coking coal prices continued to decline due to weak downstream demand, with prices rebounding to 1,000-1,200 yuan due to safety incidents affecting production rates [3][12] - Huabei Mining is currently in a state of low price-to-book (PB) ratio, with a debt ratio reduced to 48% in the first half of 2025 [3][21][22] Growth Prospects - Future growth is expected to rely on the recovery of the Xifeng Coal Mine and the full production of the Taohutu Coal Mine, which is projected to contribute 1-2 billion yuan and 3-4 billion yuan in net profit, respectively [2][9][10] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 1.8 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.65 billion yuan in 2026 as new projects come online [3][25] Pricing Mechanism - Huabei Mining sells thermal coal under long-term contracts and coking coal under a "2+4+4" pricing mechanism, which has allowed for competitive production costs [2][11] - The company is exploring more flexible pricing strategies to adapt to market changes [3][12] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment, primarily through Linghuan Coking and Taixin Technology, has not been operating at full capacity, but significant reductions in losses are expected in 2025 [2][15][16] - The coal chemical business contributed 30% to the company's gross profit, with expectations of reduced losses to 300-400 million yuan for the year [2][15][16] Power Generation and Non-Coal Mining - The power generation business is small but expected to contribute approximately 196 million yuan annually once a new plant is operational in 2026 [2][17] - Non-coal mining operations contributed around 40 million yuan in net profit in the first half of 2025 [2][18] Investment Considerations - Huabei Mining is considered undervalued compared to peers, with a PE ratio of around 18 times projected net profit, while competitors are valued at approximately 25 times [3][14][25] - The company has a high dividend yield, exceeding 5% in 2024, making it attractive for income-focused investors [3][23][24] Market Environment - The coal industry is currently experiencing a low point, but potential supply-side policy improvements could enhance the fundamental outlook [3][26] - Huabei Mining's unique advantages include growth potential and low valuation, positioning it favorably for future investment opportunities [3][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of value investing strategies, highlighting different approaches and their effectiveness in the market, particularly in the context of A-shares. Group 1: Value Investing Strategies - Value investing has evolved through different stages, starting with the "cigarette butt" strategy, which involved picking undervalued stocks during the post-war period [7][20]. - The "cigarette butt" strategy was prevalent during the 20-year bear market post-World War II, where many companies were valued below their liquid assets [10][12]. - The second stage, "low valuation investment," emerged as opportunities for the "cigarette butt" strategy diminished, focusing on a basket of stocks with low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and high dividend yields [22][23]. - The third stage, influenced by Charlie Munger, emphasizes buying excellent companies at reasonable prices, as exemplified by Buffett's investment in See's Candies [30][35]. Group 2: Historical Context and Examples - During the post-war bull market, the investment landscape changed, leading to fewer "cigarette butt" opportunities and a shift towards investing in fundamentally strong companies [21][24]. - Buffett's investment in See's Candies in 1972, at a P/E ratio of 12.5, marked a significant shift in his investment philosophy, focusing on quality and stability [36][41]. - The article highlights Buffett's continued adherence to low valuation strategies, as seen in his investment in Japanese trading companies during the COVID-19 market downturn, where he acquired them at low P/E ratios of 5-8 [55][58]. Group 3: Importance of Valuation - Valuation remains a critical factor across all value investing strategies, influencing investment decisions and outcomes [60]. - The article suggests that understanding valuation methods is essential for investors, with simple and effective techniques available for ordinary investors to grasp [61].

Group 1 - The current market trading sentiment has entered an overheating phase, with a noticeable tendency for crowding, indicating a need to pay attention to the deterioration of trading structure [1] - The TMT sector's congestion level is approaching a warning line, suggesting that the deteriorating market trading structure requires attention [1] - Low-heat sectors such as consumption and cyclical industries may offer higher cost-performance ratios in the next phase of the market [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, revenue and net profit have turned positive year-on-year, indicating a clear turning point in the profit cycle and a mild recovery path for enterprises [1] - Market funds are gradually shifting from risk aversion to a balanced approach, favoring stable and growth-oriented assets [1] - The long-term trend remains unchanged, with the optimal strategy being to invest in undervalued consumption and cyclical sectors, such as large consumption, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [1] Group 3 - Key sectors to focus on include large consumption, new energy, non-bank financials, innovative pharmaceuticals, TMT, non-ferrous metals, and satellite internet [1]

Group 1 - The main consumption index of China Securities fell by 1.84% as of July 31, 2025, with Shanxi Fenjiu leading the decline, followed by Meihua Biological, Luzhou Laojiao, and Dongpeng Beverage [1] - The consumption ETF, Jiashi (512600), experienced a turnover of 2.39% and a transaction volume of 12.4811 million yuan, with an average daily transaction of 15.3627 million yuan over the past week [3] - As of July 30, 2025, the Jiashi consumption ETF reached a new high in scale at 529 million yuan and a new high in shares at 755 million, with a net inflow of 24.5174 million yuan over the past three days [3] Group 2 - The Jiashi consumption ETF has seen a net value increase of 6.68% over the past six months, ranking in the top two among comparable funds, with a maximum monthly return of 24.50% since inception [3] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the index tracked by the Jiashi consumption ETF is currently at 19.24 times, indicating a valuation lower than 85.71% of the time over the past year, suggesting historical low valuations [3] Group 3 - The recent performance of the liquor sector is attributed to trading factors, with liquor stocks being favored for their low valuations and high dividends, making them attractive to funds seeking stable returns [4] - The liquor sector is currently at a five-year low in valuation, with public fund holdings at a record low, indicating a favorable chip structure and low market pressure [4] - The focus for investment in the second half of the year should be on low-valuation liquor stocks, while new consumer companies should be analyzed for core competitiveness and industry trends [4] Group 4 - The Jiashi consumption ETF tracks the major consumption index of China Securities, which includes leading consumer stocks across various sectors, with liquor being the largest sector, accounting for 45% of the index [4] - The top stocks in the index include Yili Group, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye, all of which experienced declines in their stock prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - After four consecutive years of decline in the liquor sector, top fund manager Zhang Kun has significantly increased his holdings in high-end liquor stocks, believing that pessimistic expectations will eventually be broken [2][11]. Fund Performance - In Q2, all four funds managed by Zhang Kun underperformed their respective benchmarks, with total assets under management dropping to 55.047 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.50% from the previous quarter [4][6]. - The specific returns for the funds in Q2 were -7.15%, -7.07%, -5.64%, and 8.79%, while their benchmarks grew by 1.92%, 1.55%, 1.92%, and 10.13% respectively [4]. Fund Holdings and Adjustments - Zhang Kun's funds increased their positions in several high-end liquor stocks, including Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while Yanghe exited the top ten holdings [2][7]. - The largest fund, E Fund Blue Chip Select, had a total size of 34.943 billion yuan at the end of Q2, with a significant increase in concentration among its top ten holdings from 74.51% to 83.84% [7][9]. Market Outlook - Zhang Kun does not agree with the pessimistic outlook on domestic demand and the economy, asserting that China will continue to progress towards its goal of reaching a GDP per capita level of a moderately developed country by 2035 [11][12]. - He emphasizes that the valuation of the companies in his portfolio already reflects expectations of future profit declines, making them attractive for long-term investors due to low valuations and substantial shareholder returns [12].

Group 1 - The banking sector has experienced a significant rebound in investment, with strong demand for allocation despite recent high-level corrections [1][2] - The market capitalization held by Hong Kong Stock Connect in banking stocks surged from 375.6 billion HKD at the end of 2023 to over 1 trillion HKD, marking a 52% increase since the beginning of the year [2][3] - Northbound funds have also increased their holdings in A-share banking stocks, with a market value growth of 26.6 billion CNY in the second quarter [3] Group 2 - The high dividend yield of banking stocks (5% for the banking AH index) and low valuation (0.76 times PB) are key factors attracting institutional investment amid an asset shortage [1][5] - The static dividend yield of the banking sector is 4.08%, which is significantly higher than the one-year deposit rate by 310 basis points [5] - The banking AH preferred ETF has seen a net inflow of 7.8 million CNY this year, making it the fastest-growing banking ETF in terms of scale [11] Group 3 - The banking sector's stability in returns is being reinforced by macroeconomic and regulatory policies, as well as increased investments from institutional investors [10] - The banking AH index has outperformed the CSI Banking Index by 26% since its inception, indicating strong relative performance [11] - The valuation of the banking AH index has contracted by 34% compared to its peak in 2021, suggesting potential for recovery [8][9]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching its highest point of the year. Trading sentiment improved as major broad-based indices showed increased volume, signaling a bullish outlook as of July 11, 2025 [3][5]. - All major indices rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.09%, the Shanghai 50 by 0.60%, the CSI 300 by 0.82%, the CSI 500 by 1.96%, the CSI 1000 by 2.36%, the ChiNext Index by 2.36%, and the Northbound 50 Index by 0.41% [5]. Valuation Insights - As of July 11, 2025, broad-based indices such as the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext are at a "moderate" valuation level, while the Shanghai 50 is at a "danger" valuation level [6]. - In terms of sector valuation, industries such as home appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are classified as "safe" [7]. Market Dynamics - The market exhibited reversal characteristics last week, suggesting that the trend may continue, particularly benefiting low-valuation investments [4]. - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index constituents decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a weakening short-term Alpha environment [8]. - Time series volatility for the CSI 300 index constituents increased week-on-week, suggesting an improvement in the Alpha environment, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 constituents saw a decrease [9]. Fund Flow Analysis - Institutional research indicated that the top five stocks attracting the most attention from institutions last week were Lexin Technology (125 institutions), Haopeng Technology (111), Zoli Pharmaceutical (91), Xiangyu Medical (77), and Nandu Property (76) [11]. - For the period of July 7-11, 2025, southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 26.356 billion, with the Shanghai Stock Connect net inflow at HKD 11.520 billion and the Shenzhen Stock Connect at HKD 14.836 billion [12]. - The median return for stock ETFs last week was 1.19%, with a net inflow of CNY 899 million, while the median return for Hong Kong stock ETFs was 0.52% with a net inflow of HKD 4.848 billion [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the strong performance of bank stocks, particularly the Bank ETF Preferred (517900), which saw a significant increase of 1.75% as of 10:51 AM on June 3, reaching a new high since its listing [1] - Major bank stocks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, and Agricultural Bank experienced notable gains, with increases of 1.82%, 5.08%, and 3.21% respectively [1] - The Bank ETF Preferred has seen continuous net inflows for seven days, accumulating over 31 million CNY as of May 30 [1] Group 2 - Analysis indicates that over the past decade, bank stocks have significantly outperformed the TMT sector due to low valuations and consistent dividend payouts, with a 61% increase in the bank index since the 2015 peak, despite a 19% decline in PE ratios [4] - The dividend yield for the bank index was reported at 7.3% as of the end of April, reflecting a strategy of selecting undervalued stocks in the AH market [5] - The TMT sector has seen a more substantial decline in valuations, with PE changes of approximately -40% to -80% across various sub-sectors, while bank stocks maintained higher dividend yields and profitability [4]