近期非农就业数据的大幅下修加剧了美联储对经济增长的担忧，而通胀的尾部风险正在下降。我们认为美国 货币政策正在从对通胀的关注转向对联储双重目标（就业和通胀）的平衡。因此我们预计美联储将从9月份开 始降息25个基点，随后在今年12月和明年3月再降息两次，累计降息75个基点。美联储有望落实降息，现在正 是布局优质债券以锁定具有吸引力的收益率的潜在机会，以应对利率的进一步下跌。 由于实际收益率仍处于高位，美联储有很大的降息空间。即使降息三次，政策利率仍将保持限制性。同时， 经济增长不确定性和美联储领导层变动也可能带来更多的降息空间。我们维持对美国国债、美元投资级债券 和高收益债券的中性观点，因其收益率仍颇具吸引力。同时，我们认为优质债券是重要的投资组合风险分散 工具，可以对冲经济增长放缓带来的宏观风险。 如何应对？ 策略一：在利率下降之前锁定当前具有吸引力的收益率。 策略二：延长久期偏好，因长短利差正处于三年来最高水平。 策略三：利用优质债券对冲增长放缓的风险 数据来源：彭博，汇丰私人银行及财富管理。截至2025年8月15日，过去数据不代表未来表现。 我行相关主题所有在售代客境外理财计划-香港互认基金、海外基金产品列 ...

共铸千亿丰碑，博时债券ETF助力捕捉债市机遇 目前，博时基金旗下共计5只债券ETF，包括可转债ETF（511380），30年国债ETF博时（511130），信 用债ETF博时（159396），科创债ETF博时（551000），国开ETF（159650）。多年的匠心耕耘，博时 债券ETF硕果累累，规模增长迅速。其中，可转债ETF规模突破570亿元，博时旗下多只债券ETF规模已 突破100亿元。（数据来源：上海证券交易所，截至2025年8月21日） 规模超570亿元，博时可转债进可攻退可守 博时基金与时俱进，持续创新。可转债ETF（511380）凭借管理者的精心耕耘以及行业分散、评级覆盖 广等特性，产品规模增长迅速，目前，管理规模已超过570亿元。（数据来源：上海证券交易所，截至 2025年8月21日） 另外，业绩也是可圈可点，可转债ETF成立以来至2025年二季度，累计回报率达24.02%（业绩比较基准 收益率为22.79%），高于同期中证转债指数21.29%，也高于同期上证指数12.14%和沪深300指 数-6.43%。（数据来源：基金2025年二季报，统计区间：2020年3月6日—2025年6月30日） 多 ...

编者按：说到债券，很多投资者的第一反应是"我知道"——债券是一类风险收益都不太高的稳健投资选 择。 然后，就没有然后了。 从风险收益的角度来理解债券，当然没错。可除此之外，还有哪些是投资前理应知道的债券投资常识呢？ 说实话，整理"债券投资常识"这活不好干。有些知识点太碎、有些内容很难用通俗有趣又准确的方式地表 达。当然，更重要的是，小编在这一领域也所知不多。 关键时刻，有专业人士挺身而出来帮忙。基金经理商园波通过问答的形式整理了以下内容，希望能帮助大 家在开启债券投资之前，至少先做到"心中有常识"。 债券究竟是什么， 和股票的本质区别有哪些？ 一 大家平时对债券接触不多，但其实债券市场规模要比股票大。在中国的金融大池子里，债券是比股票更 为"庞大"的一类资产。 从发行人角度来说，债券和股票都属于融资工具，不过债券属于债务融资工具，股票属于权益融资工具。 想象一下，如果一家公司需要钱来发展。它有两种主要 融资 方式： 一种是借钱，公司借了钱会打个借条，上面会记载着本金、利率、到期日等信息。可以把债券看看成借 条，不过跟普通借条不同的是，这张借条是标准化的，每一张借条面额必须是100元，这是由国家来规定 的。 由 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry in China has seen a significant increase in fund utilization, with the total balance surpassing 36 trillion yuan as of Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.4% [2]. Group 1: Fund Utilization Overview - As of Q2 2025, the fund utilization balance of property insurance companies reached 2.35 trillion yuan, while life insurance companies held 32.6 trillion yuan [2]. - The total investment in stocks and securities investment funds by both life and property insurance companies amounted to 4.73 trillion yuan, marking a 25% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [3][4]. Group 2: Equity Investment Trends - The proportion of equity investments has been steadily increasing, with life insurance companies investing 4.35 trillion yuan in stocks and securities investment funds, a 25.7% increase year-on-year, representing 13.34% of their total fund utilization [4]. - Property insurance companies invested 379.2 billion yuan in stocks and securities investment funds, accounting for 16.16% of their total fund utilization, showing a significant increase [4]. - The rise in equity investment is attributed to several factors, including stock market gains, a low-interest-rate environment, and regulatory policies encouraging long-term investments [5]. Group 3: Bond Investment Dynamics - The total balance of bond investments by both life and property insurance companies reached 17.87 trillion yuan, a substantial increase of 1.9 trillion yuan from the end of 2024, making it the largest investment category [8]. - Life insurance companies held 16.92 trillion yuan in bonds, representing 51.90% of their total fund utilization, while property insurance companies held 945.5 billion yuan, accounting for 40.29% [8]. - The recent tax policy changes regarding bond interest income are not expected to alter the fundamental role of bonds as a stable investment for insurance funds [9]. Group 4: Decline in Bank Deposits - The proportion of investments in bank deposits has been declining, with life insurance companies holding 8.02% and property insurance companies holding 17.24% of their total fund utilization in bank deposits as of Q2 2025 [9]. Group 5: Future Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that insurance funds may shift towards investments with better tax advantages or higher returns, with a continued emphasis on equity investments in the long term [10].

存量市场特征 超长信用债收益窄幅波动。本周（2025.8.4-2025.8.8，下同）影响债券定价信息依旧纷杂，债市情绪偏于谨慎。与上 周相比，存量超长信用债收益率小幅下行，收益率中枢维持在 2.1%-2.3%区间。 一级发行情况 超长产业新债认购情绪回弹。本周超长信用新债发行规模合计 197 亿，供给量虽有一定回升，但其占当周信用债总发 行规模的比例读数还在下滑。在新债发行利率方面，本周超长产业新债发行利率均值继续上行，现已升至 2.3%以上。 或是出于超长产业债票面利率的回升，叠加月初资金利率低位徘徊，投资者参超长信用债认购力度又有强化。 二级成交表现 超长信用债指数定价基本持平上周。债市前瞻难度加大的背景下，超长信用债表现不及主流债券资产，本周 10 年以 上国债、3-5 年中票、3-5 年国股二级债指数走势均好于超长信用债指数。 超长信用债成交笔数显著回落。7 月以来超长信用债浮盈缺乏，在预期不稳的债市中，难控回撤的弊病致使该品种交 易需求显著减弱，本周 7 年及以上城投债与产业债合计成交笔数从上周的 515 笔下降至 389 笔。成交收益方面，最为 活跃的 7-10 年产业债，成交收益率均值边际修复 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report This week, the overall share of bond ETFs continued to expand, driven by credit - bond and convertible - bond ETFs, and the net values of various types generally increased. Convertible - bond ETFs led the growth in terms of net value increase and capital inflow [3][24]. Summary by Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - As of August 8, 2025, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs were 517.93 million, 501.07 million, 81.38 million, 3060.38 million, and 4433.45 million respectively, with a total of 8594.20 million shares. Compared with August 1, 2025, the changes were - 9.06 million, - 3.05 million, 1.20 million, 140.96 million, and 196.70 million respectively, and the total change was 326.75 million shares. Compared with the end of last month, the total change was 387.50 million shares [3][6]. 1.2 主要债券 ETF 份额走势 - The share performance of major bond ETFs was differentiated, with urban - investment - bond and convertible - bond ETFs being the main growth drivers. As of August 8, 2025, the shares of selected leading bond ETFs changed by - 3.95 million, - 3.86 million, no change, 105.00 million, and 127.50 million respectively compared with last week [3][7]. - The shares of credit - bond ETFs slightly increased. As of August 8, 2025, the shares of 8 existing credit - bond ETFs changed to varying degrees compared with August 1, 2025 [3][11]. - The shares of science - innovation - bond ETFs generally increased. As of August 8, 2025, the shares of 10 existing science - innovation - bond ETFs changed to varying degrees compared with last week [3][14]. 1.3 主要债券 ETF 净值走势 - This week, the net values of major bond ETFs maintained an upward trend, with convertible - bond ETFs ending their decline and leading the increase. As of August 8, 2025, the net values of selected leading bond ETFs changed by 0.11%, 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.09%, and 2.28% respectively compared with last week [3][16]. - The net values of credit - bond ETFs all increased. As of August 8, 2025, the net values of 8 credit - bond ETFs changed by 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.06%, 0.08%, 0.09%, and 0.09% respectively compared with last week [3][18]. - The net values of science - innovation - bond ETFs showed a steady upward trend. As of August 8, 2025, the net values of 10 science - innovation - bond ETFs changed by 0.11%, 0.12%, 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.11%, 0.10%, 0.10%, and 0.09% respectively compared with August 1, 2025 [3][22]. 1.4 部分债券 ETF 净流入情况 - Convertible - bond ETFs had the highest cumulative net inflow this week and this month. In the weekly view, the top three bond ETFs with cumulative net inflows were convertible - bond ETF, urban - investment - bond ETF, and Shanghai - Stock - Exchange convertible - bond ETF, with net inflow amounts of 166.30 million yuan, 150.61 million yuan, and 84.95 million yuan respectively. In the monthly view, the top three were the same, with net inflow amounts of 240.12 million yuan, 161.80 million yuan, and 78.81 million yuan respectively. In terms of cumulative trading - day inflows, convertible - bond ETFs also ranked first in the past 10 and 20 trading days [3][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Maintains the view that August - October is a headwind period for the bond market. Currently, it has entered the starting point of the second stage of the bond market's three - step process in the second half of the year. August is regarded as an oscillatory adjustment period after redemption, but the market has not shown a trend improvement in the quarterly dimension [26]. - In the short term, there may be a small - band long - trading window in the first half of August. New bond issuance pressure is low, the VAT policy still benefits old bonds, large banks' bond - allocation power is strong, funds are loose, upcoming weak financial data may provide a profit - taking window, and historically, policy windows usually occur in the second half of August [28]. - For trading portfolios, seize the sentiment - repair period in the first half of August for small - band trading. Take profit at around 1.65% and pay attention to spread opportunities brought by the VAT policy [45]. - For allocation portfolios, wait for new bonds to adjust to more suitable positions, and consider old bonds at curve convex points, such as 6y CDB, 7y ADBC, 10y CDB, and 15y treasury bonds [48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Value - added Tax New Rule: One - week Market Conditions - **Emotional Impact Stage (August 1st, 4th)**: The "old - new cut - off" of the VAT policy led to tax - exemption advantages for old bonds. Institutions rushed to buy old bonds, with the yield of the 10y treasury active bond dropping from 1.715% to 1.68%, then rising back to around 1.7% due to profit - taking and a strong stock market [13]. - **Bank Bond - buying Stage (August 5th - 7th)**: Banks continued to buy bonds, with the intensity weakening. On August 6th, the Agricultural Development Bank and the Export - Import Bank rushed to issue tax - exempt bonds. The auction results started to price in negative factors as investors awaited higher - yielding new bonds [16][19]. - **New Bond Issuance Stage (August 8th)**: The first batch of local bonds in Hebei and Hubei were auctioned. The adjustment of Hebei bonds was large, attracting more investors to Hubei bonds. The overall impact of VAT on new bonds was controllable, with the adjustment range mostly within the 3 - 6% tax rate [22][24]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy - **Quarterly Dimension**: Maintains that August - October is a headwind period for the bond market. The bond market is in a difficult trading situation, and accounts need to gradually increase liquidity [26]. - **Short - term (First Half of August)**: There may be a small - band long - trading window. New bond issuance pressure is low, funds are loose, weak financial data may provide a profit - taking window, and policy windows usually occur in the second half of August [28]. - **Trading Portfolios**: Seize the sentiment - repair period in the first half of August. Take profit at around 1.65% and pay attention to spread opportunities [45]. - **Allocation Portfolios**: Wait for new bonds to adjust and consider old bonds at curve convex points [48]. 3.3 Interest - rate Bond Market Review - **Overall Situation**: The central bank's support and the VAT new policy had limited impact. Long - term bonds fluctuated within a narrow range. The yield curve steepened, with the 1y treasury active bond yield down 1.5BP, the 10y down 0.4BP, and the 30y up 1.8BP [9]. - **Funding**: The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, but the funding was balanced and loose. DR001 and DR007 were at low levels, and the central bank's front - loaded 3M term repurchase operations showed a supportive attitude [10]. - **Primary Issuance**: Net financing of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, while that of local bonds decreased [69]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spreads of treasury bonds and CDB bonds widened. Short - term bond yields performed better than long - term ones [63].

Group 1 - The enthusiasm for bond investments among small and medium-sized banks reached a new high in July, with total bond trading exceeding 17.24 trillion yuan [1][2] - The increase in bond trading is attributed to insufficient loan demand, reduced credit issuance, pressure from larger banks, and restrictions on cross-regional operations [1][3] - Many small and medium-sized banks are actively engaging in financial investments, particularly in bonds, to expand their assets and income [1][4] Group 2 - The trading volumes for city commercial banks and rural commercial banks showed a consistent upward trend in the first quarter, with a significant increase in July [2][3] - In the first half of the year, a notable portion of asset growth for some banks was achieved through bond investments, with one city commercial bank reporting a 500 billion yuan increase in assets, half of which came from bond investments [3][4] - The trend of increasing financial investment as a proportion of total assets among listed banks has been evident, with 30 banks reporting financial investments exceeding 30% of total assets [5][6] Group 3 - The investment income from bond trading has become a significant driver of revenue for banks, with many banks reporting substantial year-on-year growth in investment income [6][7] - The Central Bank acknowledged the importance of bond investments for banks and their role in supporting fiscal policy and the real economy [7][8] - There is a need for small and medium-sized banks to maintain a balance between investment returns and risk exposure, with the Central Bank monitoring high-risk institutions [8]

Core Insights - In July, the enthusiasm for bond trading among small and medium-sized banks reached a new high for the year, with total trading volume exceeding 17 trillion yuan, driven by factors such as insufficient loan demand and credit contraction [1][2][3] Group 1: Bond Trading Performance - The total bond trading volume for city commercial banks and rural commercial banks showed strong momentum, consistently exceeding that of large and joint-stock banks since March [3] - In the first seven months of the year, city commercial banks' bond trading volumes were 64,552.77 billion yuan, 74,994.44 billion yuan, 104,174.19 billion yuan, 89,224.96 billion yuan, 86,214.04 billion yuan, 100,534.48 billion yuan, and 109,175.2 billion yuan, while rural commercial banks' volumes were 44,457.04 billion yuan, 45,297.66 billion yuan, 66,608.66 billion yuan, 66,788.82 billion yuan, 57,406.44 billion yuan, 62,537.76 billion yuan, and 63,199.86 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Investment Trends - The proportion of financial investment assets in total assets for listed banks reached a near-high of 30%, with 30 banks exceeding this threshold [4][5] - Chongqing Bank saw a significant increase in financial investment assets, rising by 1,227 billion yuan to 3,859 billion yuan, with its proportion of total assets increasing by 7.71 percentage points to 41.42% [5][6] Group 3: Revenue Structure and Market Dynamics - The trend of "selling bonds to boost revenue" has emerged, with many banks reporting significant increases in investment income, with some banks seeing growth rates exceeding 100% [7][8] - The central bank emphasized the importance of bond investments for banks, noting that while they can support fiscal policy and the real economy, banks must maintain a balance between investment returns and risk [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent announcement by two departments regarding the reinstatement of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, which reverses the previous tax exemption policy [1]. Summary by Sections Tax Implications - The cancellation of the tax exemption applies specifically to the VAT on interest income, which is a fundamental aspect of the discussion [4]. - Different types of investors and their respective tax rates on bond investments are outlined, showing that public funds and certain asset management products previously enjoyed a 0% tax rate on government and local bonds [5]. Market Reactions and Conclusions - The first conclusion indicates that existing bonds (old bonds) will not be affected by the new tax policy, which is beneficial for these older securities [6]. - The second conclusion suggests that the new tax policy is relatively favorable for interest rate bonds while being unfavorable for financial bonds issued by banks and brokerages, as the latter will be subject to the new tax rules [8]. - The third conclusion states that credit bonds will benefit from the policy change since their tax obligations remain unchanged, leading to a narrowing of the price gap between credit bonds and interest rate bonds [9][10]. - The fourth conclusion emphasizes that the overall impact on bond investments is negative, as the removal of the tax exemption is detrimental to the bond category as a whole [11]. Fiscal Context - The fifth conclusion highlights the need for the government to find new sources of revenue, as public budget revenues have declined, necessitating the introduction of taxes on bond interest income [13][15]. Impact on Financial Institutions - The sixth conclusion discusses the implications for banks, brokerages, and insurance companies, noting that their bond issuance costs will increase and their profits will be affected due to the additional tax burden [16][17]. Individual Investors - The seventh conclusion reassures individual investors that the impact of the tax change on their investments is minimal, suggesting they should continue with their investment strategies without significant concern [18][19].