格隆汇1月8日｜2025年铜价上涨令交易员喜悦，但2026年铜或将极易受到股市上涨的影响。彭博经济研 究指出，飙升的股价是财富效应的组成部分，支撑通胀和债券收益率，这可能代表了2026年工业金属的 双输情景。如果铜和股市持续上涨，通胀和债券收益率或将反弹，与特朗普政府的公开政策目标背道而 驰。2025年初，铜价约为4美元/磅，两度突破5.25美元后又跌破4.50美元，最后在年底收于5.7美元左 右。2026年铜价能否站稳6美元上方？如果股市保持韧性，彭博倾向于认为可以，但正常回调风险指向 4.50美元。 ...

较多债券市场投资者期盼央行能多买入些国债，特别是（超）长期限品种，从而推动债券收益率下行。实 际上，公开市场国债买卖通过两个渠道对债券收益率产生影响：一个渠道是，央行买卖国债的操作本身会 不可避免地改变市场供需关系，从而影响债券收益率（即资产负债表渠道）；另一个渠道是，投资者会交 易央行买卖国债的信息，从而加大债券收益率的波动（即预期渠道）。我们倾向性地认为，收益率的下行 在很大程度上来自于第二个渠道。例如，2024年央行于8月才开始实施国债买卖操作，但自该年二季度起 市场便多次交易央行买债的消息。从结果上看，2024年7月末10Y国债收益率为2.15%，较该年一季度末下 行了14bp，显然这不可能是第一个渠道所形成的影响。（注：当然，我们也不否认该阶段还有其他一些原 因推动了债券收益率的下行。）不难看出，第二个渠道可以形成预期的自我实现，即只要市场预期央行买 债，那么无论央行买不买，债券收益率都可能因此下行。 在现阶段，公开市场国债买卖主要定位于基础货币投放和流动性管理工具，因此需要控制该工具对于债券 收益率的影响。倘若第二个渠道的影响过于明显，那么必然会制约该工具主要作用的发挥。 当然，抑制第二个影响渠道 ...

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：刘明亮 汇丰的Max Kettner等策略师仍保持"激进的风险偏好"立场，对美股接近最大程度的超配；在12月的关键 风险事件过关后，目前股市位于纪录高点附近。 他们表示，美国经济数据的喜忧参半利好股市，只要通胀不过冷或过热，且债券收益率仍远离对风险资 产而言令人担忧的水平。 汇丰的Max Kettner等策略师仍保持"激进的风险偏好"立场，对美股接近最大程度的超配；在12月的关键 风险事件过关后，目前股市位于纪录高点附近。 他们表示，美国经济数据的喜忧参半利好股市，只要通胀不过冷或过热，且债券收益率仍远离对风险资 产而言令人担忧的水平。 Kettner指出，该团队的信心和仓位正在缓慢逼近超买区域。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ Kettner指出，该团队的信心和仓位正在缓慢逼近超买区域。 责任编辑：刘明亮 ...

施罗德投资表示，相信在"大而美法案"增加对消费者的财政支持下，美国经济增长至2026年将保持良 好。另一方面，当地劳动市场仍显脆弱，而这正是美联储双重政策目标的其中一环。 施罗德投资环球无约束固定收益主管Julien Houdain表示，主要经济体掀起新一轮加息预期，推高了债 券收益率，但施罗德认为此轮走势已反应过度。随着经济"软着陆"的可能性增加，这种市场错位正带来 具吸引力的入场时机。尽管美国依然是环球金融市场的主要影响因素，但过去一个月推动债息攀升的主 力却来自美国以外。亚洲、欧洲及美元区经济体已由原先预期减息，转为消化未来12个月的加息预期。 施罗德认为，在部分地区，市场的反应为时过早且幅度过大。 施罗德投资调高了经济"软着陆"情境的概率，这显然是该行认为最可能出现的结果。"硬着陆"的机会则 被调低，此举反映部分劳动市场指标，例如小型企业的招聘意愿已浮现初步回稳的迹象。同时，考虑到 短期通胀前景温和(相对于债券市场已反映的预期)、施罗德对2025年第四季经济增长温和放缓的预测， 以及新任美联储主席可能偏向鸽派，该行视经济"无着陆"为发生概率最低的情境。 因此，就纯粹的方向性押注而言，施罗德投资认为更佳 ...

格隆汇1月2日｜欧元区政府债券收益率上涨，追随美国国债走势，市场正等待欧元区四大经济体——德 国、法国、意大利和西班牙——以及欧元区自身的制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)数据公布。政府债券发 行即将启动，法国和西班牙定于下周四公布拍卖细节。Tradeweb的数据显示，10年期德国国债收益率上 涨3.4个基点，至2.888%。周五流动性可能保持清淡。 ...

事件点评 PMI 超预期回升对 2026 年市场的启示 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 12 月 PMI 数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布2025 年 12 月采购经理指数运行情况，制造业PMI为 50.1% （前值为 49.2%，下同），环比提升 0.9pct；非制造业 PMI 为 50.2%（49.5%）， 环比提升 0.7pct；综合 PMI 为 50.7%（49.7%），环比提升 1.0pct。 12 月制造业 PMI 超季节性、超预期大幅回升至 50.1%，创 4 月以来新高 值得注意的是，12 月制造业 PMI 的季节性是环比回落，2016-2024 年 12 月制造 业 PMI 环比回落均值为-0.3%，而 2025 年 12 月则是大幅环比回升 0.9%，为 2012 年以来最大的 12 月环比回升幅度。 1、12 月 PMI 回升，或与 10 月政策加码有关 10 月 PMI 大幅回落，表明经济阶 ...

随着公共假期后欧洲市场恢复交易，欧洲债券上涨，意大利国债领涨。 本轮债券上涨推动德国10年期国债收益率跌至12月8日以来的最低水平。 德国国债的表现也优于同期限的利率互换，市场关注荷兰养老基金改革计划，预计将对这些基金规模庞 大的互换头寸产生影响。 市场： 德国国债收益率跌4个基点，至2.83%； 德国国债期货涨38点，至127.84； 意大利10年期国债收益率跌5个基点，至3.50%； 意大利-德国国债利差缩小2个基点，至67个基点； 法国10年期国债收益率跌4个基点，至3.52%； 随着公共假期后欧洲市场恢复交易，欧洲债券上涨，意大利国债领涨。 本轮债券上涨推动德国10年期国债收益率跌至12月8日以来的最低水平。 德国国债的表现也优于同期限的利率互换，市场关注荷兰养老基金改革计划，预计将对这些基金规模庞 大的互换头寸产生影响。 市场： 10年期英国国债收益率跌2个基点，至4.49%。 责任编辑：李桐 德国国债收益率跌4个基点，至2.83%； 德国国债期货涨38点，至127.84； 意大利10年期国债收益率跌5个基点，至3.50%； 意大利-德国国债利差缩小2个基点，至67个基点； 法国10年期国债收益率跌 ...

每经AI快讯，12月29日，土耳其10年期里拉债券收益率下跌52个基点，降至3月以来最低水平。 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - In the neutral scenario, the increase in bond demand from the growth of fixed - income + fund scale may not offset the decrease in bond demand caused by the shrinkage of pure - bond fund scale. Credit bond and convertible bond demand will increase, while interest - rate bond, especially policy - financial bond, demand will significantly decline [1] - In the short term, the bond market has entered a volatile stage after the previous rebound. The core strategy is carry trade, with a focus on allocating safe assets such as 4 - 5 - year credit bonds, 5 - year treasury bonds, and 5 - 7 - year CDB bonds. In January, interest rates may still face upward pressure due to factors like the front - loaded issuance of government bonds and high CD renewal pressure in the first quarter [1][2][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. How much bond demand does the growth of fixed - income + fund scale bring? - **1.1 Fixed - income + fund scale and bond - holding structure**: The growth of the equity market has driven up the profitability and scale of fixed - income + funds. From Q4 2024 to Q3 2025, the scale increased from 1.69 trillion yuan to 2.44 trillion yuan. The bond - holding scale of fixed - income + funds has generally risen, reaching 3.3 trillion yuan in Q3 2025 with a 16% QoQ increase. In contrast, the bond - holding scale of pure - bond funds declined to 7.9 trillion yuan in Q3 2025. Both types of funds mainly hold credit bonds, but fixed - income + funds have a higher convertible bond position and a lower policy - financial bond position [10][12] - **1.2 Estimation of the incremental bond demand brought by the growth of bond fund scale in 2026** - **1.2.1 Changes in bond demand due to the growth of fixed - income + fund scale**: Under pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, the bond demand scales of fixed - income + funds in 2026 are 3 trillion yuan, 3.40 trillion yuan, and 3.95 trillion yuan respectively, with incremental demands of 2723 billion yuan, 6807 billion yuan, and 12253 billion yuan. The demand for credit bonds may increase significantly. In the neutral scenario, compared with Q4 2025, the increments of general credit bonds and financial bonds are 2740 billion yuan and 1751 billion yuan respectively [18] - **1.2.2 Changes in bond demand due to the shrinkage of pure - bond fund scale**: Under pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, the bond demand scales of pure - bond funds in 2026 are 6.58 trillion yuan, 6.97 trillion yuan, and 7.35 trillion yuan respectively, with demand decreases of 11608 billion yuan, 7739 billion yuan, and 3869 billion yuan. The demand for general credit bonds and policy - financial bonds will decrease relatively more. In the neutral scenario, compared with Q4 2025, the changes in general credit bonds and policy - financial bonds are - 2268 billion yuan and - 3043 billion yuan respectively [24] - **1.2.3 Total incremental bond demand brought by fixed - income + funds and pure - bond funds**: In the neutral scenario, overall bond demand decreases. The increase in bond demand from fixed - income + funds may not offset the decrease from pure - bond funds. Credit bond and convertible bond demand increase, while interest - rate bond, especially policy - financial bond, demand decreases significantly. The total demand for credit bonds and interest - rate bonds decreases by 1455 billion yuan [30] - **1.3 Bond market outlook**: In the short term, the bond market is in a volatile stage, and the strategy focuses on carry trade and safe - asset allocation. In January, interest rates may face upward pressure, but it may also present a good allocation window [33] 2. Overview of credit bond yields - From December 22 - 26, 2025, credit bond yields showed mixed trends. General credit bonds like urban investment bonds and industrial bonds performed better than financial bonds, and medium - and high - rated bonds performed better than low - rated ones. Urban investment bonds and industrial bonds mainly saw yield declines, while the yields of other financial bonds showed mixed trends. Insurance sub - bonds had all - around yield declines [34][35] 3. Primary market - **3.1 Issuance volume**: The issuance volume of credit bonds decreased MoM but increased YoY this week. The net financing volume increased both MoM and YoY. The net financing volume of financial bonds increased MoM, while that of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased [42] - **3.2 Issuance cost**: The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds increased. The average issuance interest rate of industrial bonds decreased MoM, while those of urban investment bonds and financial bonds increased. The significant increase in financial bond issuance rates was due to the issuance of some high - interest - rate bonds [51] - **3.3 Issuance term**: The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased MoM. The issuance terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased, while that of financial bonds increased [55] - **3.4 Cancellation of issuance**: The number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances decreased MoM. From December 22 - 26, 8 bonds were cancelled, 2 less than the previous week, and the cancelled issuance scale decreased by 27.54 billion yuan [59] 4. Secondary market - **4.1 Trading volume**: Except for insurance sub - bonds, the trading volumes of other credit bonds rebounded. The trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds lengthened, while those of bank secondary capital bonds and insurance sub - bonds shortened. The trading terms of bank perpetual bonds and securities firm sub - bonds shifted from the middle to both ends [64] - **4.2 Trading liquidity**: The turnover rates of credit bonds increased. For urban investment bonds, except for the 3 - year - and - below term, the turnover rates of other terms increased, with the 7 - 10 - year term having the largest increase. For industrial bonds, except for the 3 - year - and - below term and the 3 - 5 - year term, the turnover rates of other terms increased, with the 7 - 10 - year term having the largest increase. For financial bonds, except for the 7 - 10 - year term and the 3 - 5 - year term, the turnover rates of other terms increased, with the 10 - year - and - above term having the largest increase [67] - **4.3 Spread tracking**: This week, the spreads of 1 - year and 7 - year urban investment bonds mostly widened, while those of other terms mostly narrowed. The spreads of AAA - rated industrial bonds mostly narrowed, while those of AA - rated industrial bonds mostly widened. The spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds mostly widened, with short - term spreads widening more. The spreads of securities firm sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds mostly narrowed [74][77][79] 5. Weekly hot bonds overview - The report selects the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores for investors' reference [83] 6. Review of credit rating adjustments - According to domestic rating agencies, 3 bonds had their credit ratings upgraded this week, and no bonds had their ratings downgraded [89]

韩国金融委员会（FSC）委员长Lee Eog-weon接受电视采访时表示，韩国已准备好在必要时随时采取先 发制人的措施来稳定金融市场。Lee表示，对债券收益率上升和汇率波动保持警惕，并称韩国金融体系 的稳健性及其应对危机的能力没有重大问题。由于韩元持续疲软引发对通胀的担忧，韩国央行 周五 宣 布旨在增加在岸外汇市场美元供应的 临时措施 。 责任编辑：王永生 韩国金融委员会（FSC）委员长Lee Eog-weon接受电视采访时表示，韩国已准备好在必要时随时采取先 发制人的措施来稳定金融市场。Lee表示，对债券收益率上升和汇率波动保持警惕，并称韩国金融体系 的稳健性及其应对危机的能力没有重大问题。由于韩元持续疲软引发对通胀的担忧，韩国央行 周五 宣 布旨在增加在岸外汇市场美元供应的 临时措施 。 责任编辑：王永生 ...