期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：底部横盘 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22330 | 135 | 415 | 605 | 1610 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22145 | - | - | — | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2957 | 1 ୧ | 51 | 151 | 335 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 294532 | 85119 | 110434 | 18113 | 191066 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 296924 | -4891 | 2934 | -93935 | 82977 ...

在美联储降息预期升温与全球主要央行鹰派立场的双重夹击下，美元正经历一场历史性的抛售潮。 美元指数周三跌至两个半月低点97.767，今年累计跌幅已近10%。如果这种跌势在年底最后一周延续，美元极有可能录得自2003年以来的最大年 度跌幅，这也是自2017年以来最糟糕的年度表现。与此同时，欧元兑美元今年以来已上涨超过14%，有望创下2003年以来的最佳年度表现。 美联储降息路径与资产信心危机 尽管美国经济数据尚可，但市场对美联储宽松路径的押注依然坚定。高盛首席美国经济学家David Mericle表示，预计FOMC（联邦公开市场委员 会）将在通胀放缓的背景下，再进行两次25个基点的降息，将利率降至3%-3.25%的区间，并指出风险倾向于更低的水平。 除了利率因素，美元资产的信心也受到政治因素的扰动。美元今年经历了剧烈波动，不仅受到特朗普混乱的关税政策冲击，总统对美联储日益增 强的影响力也引发了市场对其独立性的担忧，这在今年早些时候一度引发了对美国资产的信心危机。 全球央行政策分化加剧 与美联储的鸽派前景形成鲜明对比，全球其他主要央行正在收紧或维持限制性政策。欧洲央行上周维持利率不变，并上调了部分增长和通胀预 期， ...

上周，日本央行如期加息，欧洲央行按兵不动，英国央行则进行降息。对此，著名经济学家宋清辉指出，全球央行的政策分化，可能会将全球经 济推入一个局部的收缩期。同时，缺乏统一的宽松步调也可能会使新兴市场面临资本外流的压力。 著名经济学家宋清辉指出，全球央行的政策分化，可能会将全球经济推入一个局部的收缩期。 （有片）点市成金｜全球央行政策大分化 2026全球经济或将进入局部紧缩期 周密表示，执政党为争取选票可能加大经济刺激力度，不排除通过更鹰派的贸易政策向其他国家转移经济问题。 上周，日本央行如期加息，欧洲央行按兵不动，英国央行则进行降息。对此，宋清辉指出，全球央行的政策分化，可能会将全球经济推入一个局部的收缩 期。同时，缺乏统一的宽松步调也可能会使新兴市场面临资本外流的压力。原标题：（有片）点市成金｜全球央行政策大分化 2026全球经济或将进入局部 紧缩期 （采访：倪巍晨、朱烨、任芳颉｜编辑：杨楚依、章芸菲｜主持：章芸菲｜特效：华安、思明｜视频拍摄及制作：王一） 商务部研究院研究员周密指出，11月美国就业数据较10月有所改善，或与特朗普政府调整关税政策、降低部分关税相关，但附加关税带来的成本上涨对物价 的影响尚未体现 ...

Group 1 - Global capital markets experienced a significant downturn on December 12, with declines in U.S. stocks, gold, and silver, followed by a general drop in cryptocurrencies on December 14 [1] - Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at $88,939.4, down 1.33%, with a market cap of $504.19 billion, while Ethereum (ETH) fell 1.04% to $3,077.86, with a market cap of $432.50 billion [2] - Over 92,000 liquidations occurred within 24 hours, indicating heightened volatility in the cryptocurrency market [2][3] Group 2 - Uncertainty surrounds the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with Chairman Jerome Powell's stance on potential rate cuts in January remaining unclear, leading to increased speculation [3][4] - Kevin Walsh's probability of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chairman has significantly increased following endorsements from President Trump and influential figures like JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, with his nomination probability rising by 17 to 24 percentage points in prediction markets [3] - The market anticipates a divergence in monetary policy among major central banks, with the Bank of Japan expected to implement a notable rate hike, contrasting with the general trend of rate cuts observed globally [4]

美联储如期降息25个基点，市场普遍预期美联储明年仍维持宽松政策，与此同时，欧洲、加拿大、日本、澳洲、新西兰等央 行却普遍维持紧缩倾向。高盛等分析认为，这一政策分化预计将在2026年前后通过汇率市场显现关键影响，美元贬值压力正 成为市场焦点。美元走弱可能推动欧元等货币被动升值，进而压制相关地区的通胀水平，最终迫使欧洲央行等"被迫降息"。 华尔街主要投行在决议后维持对美联储后续降息的预期。摩根系与花旗预测，明年1月将再次降息，他们判断宽松周期尚未 结束。高盛与巴克莱分析称，政策声明中的鹰派措辞旨在"平衡"本次降息，避免释放过度宽松信号。 花旗、摩根士丹利及摩根大通均将首次降息时点指向明年1月，其中花旗预计3月将再次降息，摩根士丹利判断4月跟进第二 次降息，而摩根大通则认为此后政策将进入观察期。 高盛、富国银行与巴克莱则认为，预计降息窗口将在3月开启，并可能在6月进行第二次降息。 美元贬值迫使欧央行最终降息？ 欧洲央行多位官员在美联储12月议息会议前后密集发声，强调其货币政策独立性。 法国央行行长维勒鲁瓦·德加豪上周五表 示，欧洲央行应保持降息选项，但" 不应因美联储的行动而放弃自身政策节奏 "。 全球央行政策分化 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown strong performance against the US dollar (USD) since December 2025, driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) [1] - The RBA's recent hawkish stance, including maintaining the cash rate and signaling a potential for future rate hikes due to inflation concerns, has shifted market expectations [1][2] - Economic indicators in Australia, such as private demand, the real estate market, and a tight labor market, support the RBA's hawkish turn, despite previous significant declines in inflation [2] Group 2 - The divergence in global central bank policies has increased the volatility of the AUD/USD exchange rate, with market expectations for a hawkish stance from several non-US central banks [2] - The demand for Australian resources, particularly driven by global AI investment and the transition to renewable energy, has provided support for the AUD, although challenges remain, such as lower-than-expected GDP growth and productivity issues [2] - There is a general optimism among institutions regarding the future of the AUD/USD exchange rate, with predictions of potential rate hikes by the RBA in 2026 and expectations for the exchange rate to rise in the first half of next year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is reducing expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, while major central banks like the ECB and the Bank of Canada are facing rising rate hike expectations, potentially reshaping the global monetary policy landscape by 2026 [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Expectations - Traders now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by only 50 basis points in 2026, primarily concentrated in the first half of the year, a significant reduction from previous expectations of three cuts [1][2]. - The SOFR futures contracts indicate a narrowing of the expected rate cut path, with the spread between December 2025 and December 2026 contracts reaching the smallest negative value since June [2]. - Market sentiment is shifting towards a neutral stance among Treasury investors, with the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since September, indicating a decline in bullish momentum [2]. Group 2: Inflation Risks and Policy Implications - Analysts suggest that persistent inflation pressures could undermine the credibility of the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation measures, raising the risk of rate hikes in 2026 [2][3]. - The expectation of fiscal stimulus and unexpected growth in corporate earnings may contribute to higher inflation risks, complicating the Fed's rate cut strategy [3][4]. Group 3: Global Central Bank Divergence - In contrast to the Fed's expected rate cuts, several major central banks are anticipated to raise rates, with the ECB's likelihood of rate hikes surpassing that of cuts by 2026 [5]. - The divergence in monetary policy is partly attributed to the lesser-than-expected impact of the Trump trade war on U.S. trading partners, which may exacerbate the decline of the U.S. dollar [5].

Core Viewpoint - Global central bank policies are experiencing rare divergence, with investors betting on potential interest rate hikes in the Eurozone as early as next year, while the U.S. continues to lower rates, which may further weaken the already soft dollar [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Policy Divergence - The swap market pricing indicates that the likelihood of the European Central Bank raising rates by 2026 has surpassed that of a rate cut [1]. - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates at its upcoming meeting and is anticipated to cut rates at least two more times next year [1][7]. - Other major economies, such as Australia and Canada, are also expected to raise rates next year, while the Bank of England is projected to reach a low point by summer [1]. Group 2: Economic Data Supporting Policy Divergence - Strong economic data from Europe and commodity currency countries contrasts sharply with the dovish path of the Federal Reserve [7]. - In Canada, robust employment data for November has led traders to price in a slight possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada early next year [7]. - In Australia, strong household spending data has made the possibility of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia in February more plausible, albeit still small [7]. - Japan's central bank is also expected to raise rates at least twice by 2026, following hints from its governor [7]. - The Bank of England is expected to lower rates next week but is only fully pricing in one more 25 basis point cut thereafter [7]. Group 3: Dollar Valuation Challenges - Interest rate differentials are key drivers of exchange rate movements, with lower rates typically reducing the attractiveness of holding that currency [8]. - The gap in interest rates between the Eurozone and other major economies compared to the U.S. is narrowing, which could lead to a moderate weakening of the dollar by 2026 if the Fed maintains a dovish stance [8]. - The dollar has already declined over 8% against a basket of currencies this year, and a continued dovish policy by the Fed could exacerbate this trend [8].

Group 1 - Global central bank policies are experiencing rare divergence, with investors betting on potential interest rate hikes in the Eurozone as early as next year, while the US is expected to continue lowering rates [1][4] - The swap market indicates that the likelihood of the European Central Bank raising rates by 2026 has surpassed the possibility of cuts, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts [1][4] - The divergence in policies may exacerbate the decline of the US dollar, which has already fallen over 8% against a basket of currencies this year [1][7] Group 2 - Economic data supports the hawkish shift in Europe and commodity currency countries, while the Federal Reserve's dovish path appears set, with expectations of rate cuts in the upcoming meetings [7] - Analysts note that the narrowing interest rate gap between the US and other major economies could lead to a revaluation of the dollar, particularly if the Fed maintains a dovish stance [7] - Strong economic data in regions like the Eurozone reduces the incentive for non-US central banks to cut rates further, potentially leading to a challenging year for the dollar if the Fed continues its rate cuts alone [7] Group 3 - In Canada, strong employment data has led traders to price in a slight possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada early next year [9] - In Australia, robust household spending data has made the possibility of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia in February more plausible, though still considered low [9] - The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise rates at least twice by 2026, while the Bank of England is anticipated to lower rates but only slightly in the near term [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has led to unexpected market reactions, with the dollar index rising and gold prices falling, indicating a shift from "trading expectations" to "verifying facts" in asset pricing [1][3][10] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaled a less dovish stance, suggesting only one additional rate cut next year instead of the previously expected two to three, which has influenced market dynamics [3][19] - The yield curve has steepened, reflecting market concerns about "stagflation" risks, as short-term rates have decreased while long-term rates remain stable [5][19] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market exhibited divergent trends post-rate cut, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell, highlighting a significant shift in capital flows [7][8] - Technology stocks faced selling pressure, particularly Nvidia, which dropped over 2.6% due to concerns about demand for its chips, while Chinese tech firms like Alibaba and Baidu saw substantial gains driven by their self-developed chips [8][13] - The Chinese concept stocks outperformed, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 2.85%, led by Alibaba and Baidu, as investors focused on the narrative of self-research capabilities amid challenges faced by U.S. chip giants [13][15] Group 3 - Global central banks are responding differently to the Fed's rate cut, with Canada following suit while the European Central Bank and others maintain their rates, indicating a divergence in monetary policy based on regional economic challenges [5][17] - The Fed's chairman's remarks about a "slower, longer" rate-cutting path reflect a complex economic outlook, balancing employment support against inflation risks, which is influencing capital flows [19][21] - The current market environment necessitates a shift from sentiment-driven to performance-driven investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding the underlying logic of different markets [21][23]