当全球都在为碳中和目标全力以赴时，一场悄无声息的资源革命正在悄然展开。在新时代领域，支撑新能源汽车、储能电站和智能电网的，并非传 统的石油煤炭，而是锂、钴、镍这些"白色石油"。它们就是能源金属，是通往清洁能源时代的关键钥匙！ 如图，在资本市场，能源金属板块指数自从4月份开始呈现出沿着5、10、20日均线单边上涨趋势。进入9月份，随着上证指数走弱而进行了区间震 荡。从技术分析角度看，整个九月份就是在构建中枢。此时 市场对此存在两种观点：一是上涨中继，二是高位派发筹码。 就在上周二（9月30 号），当天板块指数大涨4.03%，实现了箱体突破，从而进一步打开了上涨空间！ 能源金属主要包括锂、钴、镍、稀土等，它们是制造锂电池、燃料电池等新型能源装置的核心原材料。而锂、钴、镍又被誉为"三大金刚"，各自在 新能源产业链中扮演着不可或缺的角色。接下来，我们将详细剖析这些金属何以成为资本市场的新宠，以及它们未来的机遇与挑战。 01 锂：下游需求高增长，供需格局有望改善 锂需求的爆发本质是新能源产业崛起的直接映射，应用场景的拓宽与深化构成需求增长的核心动力。 动力电池是绝对主力 ，2025年全球新能源汽 车销量预计达1920万 ...

每日经济新闻 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证半导体材料设备主题ETF发起联接A（019632），国泰中证半导 体材料设备主题ETF发起联接C（019633）。 注：数据来源wind、截至2025.9.25，半导体设备ETF规模为64.95亿，在同类6只产品中排名第一。如提 及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表 现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任 何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的 产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 华创证券指出，中央高度重视反内卷政策在电子、半导体等高端制造业的推进，旨在通过规范竞争提升 国际影响力，为未来全球竞争争取有利地位。反内卷政策叠加企业现金活化，推动牛市主驱动转向实物 再通胀，电子、半导体等行业受益于供给端优化。短期科创板块表现活跃，科创板及创业板的五倍股分 布显著增加；中期关注供给偏紧的顺周期行业，如科技中的消费电子、光学光电子，这些领域库存及资 本开支处于低位，行业集中度提升或利于头部企业盈利修复。反内卷政策将推动通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a strong bullish trend, with prices rebounding and reaching significant targets, while silver prices have also hit a 14-year high, indicating overall strength in precious metals [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 22, gold opened at $3686.98 per ounce, recorded a low of $3683.62, and later surged to a high of $3748.53, closing at $3746.67, marking a daily increase of $59.69 or 1.62% [1]. - The strong performance of gold is attributed to a 90% expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October, which has diminished the attractiveness of the US dollar and increased demand for gold as a safe haven [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes the US current account for Q2, preliminary PMI for September, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, with expectations leaning towards a positive impact on gold prices [3]. - The market is also anticipating comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which could further influence gold prices depending on whether he signals a dovish or hawkish outlook [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The fundamental drivers for gold's bullish trend include expectations of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and strong inflows into gold ETFs, with gold prices having risen over 40% this year [5]. - The ongoing global monetary policy easing, weakening of the US dollar credit system, and institutional demand for gold are expected to sustain the bullish trend, with targets potentially reaching $4200 or higher [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing investment is accelerating, benefiting the machinery and automation equipment industries due to multiple favorable factors, including the re-industrialization trend in Europe and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Global Manufacturing Trends - The global PMI reached a 14-month high in August, indicating significant expansion in the machinery and metal manufacturing sectors [1] - Germany's fiscal stimulus has pushed the manufacturing PMI above the neutral line for the first time since June 2022 [1] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. is entering a restocking phase, with a decrease in the inventory-to-sales ratio for construction and industrial machinery, and new orders showing a year-on-year increase [1] - Excavator sales are rapidly recovering despite weak infrastructure and real estate sectors, demonstrating strong resilience in industrial product recovery [1] Group 3: Financial Environment - The global interest rate cut cycle, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower rates three times between September and December 2025, is likely to reduce financing costs and further stimulate capital expenditure [1] Group 4: Industry Representation - The Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) tracks the China Securities Machine Tool Index (931866), which selects listed companies involved in machine tool manufacturing and related technology development to reflect the overall performance of the machine tool industry [1] - The China Securities Machine Tool Index has high industry representativeness and focuses on the industrial machinery sector, reflecting the market value and technological strength of related enterprises [1]

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive outlook for the short term, indicating that it is not yet time for high-low switching, while mid-term expectations are for a physical re-inflation bull market [3][10][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology innovation, highlighting that the technology sector is expected to continue its growth, particularly in industries with clear growth expectations such as pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs), electronics (PCB), and communications (optical modules) [6][54] - The report notes a shift in market dynamics, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks, driven by factors such as superior earnings under inflation, resilience in return on equity (ROE), and the expansion of ETFs favoring large-cap styles [12][34][35] Group 2 - The report discusses the "barbell strategy," which is suitable for low-price environments, indicating that as inflation expectations rise, the demand for the reverse barbell strategy will increase [4][19] - The report highlights the performance of the technology bull market and the return of leading blue-chip stocks, noting that since June 25, there has been a reversal in style within the technology sector, with large-cap stocks gaining significant traction [5][33][36] - The report identifies key industries to focus on in the mid-term, particularly those experiencing supply constraints and price increases due to the ongoing "anti-involution" policies, including industrial metals, small metals, steel, petrochemicals, and construction materials [6][56]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with spot prices reaching $3,640 per ounce and futures at $3,677.4, indicates a significant shift in the market driven by factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased demand for gold as a safe haven asset [2][5]. Price Movements - Gold prices across various funds have shown notable increases, with 博时黄金 at 753.1980 (+1.29%), 富国黄金 at 753.4890 (+1.41%), and 建信黄金 at 819.7400 (+1.39%) as of September 9, 2025 [3]. - Retail gold prices have also surged, with major brands like 周生生 and 周大福 adjusting their prices to 1,081 CNY per gram, reflecting an increase of 9 to 15 CNY compared to early September [4]. Market Dynamics - The anticipated 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to drive more capital into gold, as lower interest rates make gold more attractive [5]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has reduced transaction fees for non-financial institutions, which is likely to increase market liquidity and trading activity in the coming months [6][7]. Industry Impact - The increase in gold prices is causing a ripple effect throughout the jewelry supply chain, necessitating recalculations in procurement, wholesale, and retail pricing [9]. - Analysts suggest that the current global liquidity environment and the ongoing trend of interest rate cuts will favor gold prices, making it a focal point for investors [9][11]. Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to remain volatile, with potential for further price increases as global central banks continue to adjust their monetary policies [11]. - The recent changes in transaction fees and market dynamics indicate that the gold market is entering a new phase, with opportunities for both investors and consumers [11].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have been rising, prompting banks to adjust their precious metals business to manage market volatility and risk control [1][2][3] Group 1: Bank Adjustments - Several banks, including China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank, have made adjustments to their precious metals business, such as increasing risk levels for gold investment products and optimizing risk assessments [1][3] - Construction Bank will close trading functions for clients with no transactions for 12 consecutive months, while China Merchants Bank has adjusted margin levels and price fluctuation limits for certain contracts [2][3] - The adjustments mainly affect personal clients' trading services related to the Shanghai Gold Exchange, indicating a tightening of risk management practices [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to participate in gold investments based on their financial situation and risk tolerance, with conservative investors recommended to limit their gold investments to 10%-15% of their investable assets [1][3] - The current high gold prices, combined with central bank policies and global economic conditions, suggest a long-term support for gold prices, making it a strategic asset allocation choice [6][7] - Investment strategies such as regular gold accumulation and timing-based investments are recommended to manage risks and enhance returns [6][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rapid increase in gold prices has led to higher margin requirements and adjustments in trading limits, affecting investors' risk management strategies [3][5] - The demand for gold buyback services has increased as residents seek to liquidate physical gold, with several banks expanding their buyback networks [4][5] - Banks are enhancing their risk management measures, including establishing price risk warning mechanisms and optimizing risk assessments for personal clients [5][6]

Market Overview - On August 18, the A-share market experienced a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the psychological barrier of 3700 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high [1] - The total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time, marking a new milestone for the market [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.63% [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3740.50 (+43.73, +1.18%) [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 11896.38 (+261.71, +2.25%) [2] - ChiNext Index: 2626.29 (+92.07, +3.63%) [2] - Total trading volume reached 1.75 trillion yuan, with nearly 4500 stocks showing gains [1] Market Drivers - The current market rally is primarily driven by "policy support" and "liquidity easing" since September 2024 [3] - Analysts suggest that the market trend remains upward, with expectations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and a global interest rate cut cycle [3] - The A-share market's circulating market value has increased by over 50% compared to its peak in 2015, indicating a healthy bull market driven by liquidity and improved expectations [3] Sector Insights - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan believe that the current environment of moderate monetary policy and support from state-owned enterprises will benefit brokerage firms' businesses [3] - The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with small-cap and growth styles gaining an advantage, similar to the market conditions in 2013 [4] - Tianfeng Securities recommends focusing on sectors like AI, consumer goods, and undervalued dividend stocks, while being cautious of potential short-term overheating [6] Future Outlook - The chief economist from China Galaxy Securities outlined three conditions for the Shanghai Composite Index to potentially challenge 4000 points by year-end: further improvement in earnings, optimization of capital structure, and alignment of domestic policies with global economic cycles [4] - Despite the optimistic outlook, some analysts caution about the risk of market corrections due to excessive enthusiasm [4][6] - The demand for high-return assets remains strong amid high growth in household savings and an "asset shortage" backdrop [6]

Market Overview - The market showed a slight upward trend with the three major indices rising, led by the ChiNext Index, which increased by 0.91% to 2401.52 points, with a trading volume of 351.1 billion [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.51% to 3666.33 points, with a trading volume of 489.2 billion, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.34% to 11330.34 points, with a trading volume of 705.4 billion [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as brain-computer interfaces, ports, Xinjiang-related stocks, and liquid-cooled servers saw significant gains, while lithium mining, military industry, rare earth permanent magnets, and photovoltaic sectors experienced declines [1][2] - AI hardware stocks surged again, with companies like Shenghong Technology reaching new historical highs and Cambrian Technologies rising over 15% [2] Institutional Insights - Furu Rong Fund maintains a bullish outlook on the market, citing upcoming events such as the "15th Five-Year Plan" and a global interest rate cut cycle as positive indicators, while suggesting a cautious approach due to the proximity to previous highs and the upcoming disclosure of half-year reports [4] - CITIC Construction expresses optimism about the robotics sector, highlighting various local government support policies and the ongoing World Robot Conference, which may catalyze advancements in the industry [4] Investment Opportunities - Huatai Securities notes the establishment of a new company for the Xinjiang Railway project, with total investment expected between 200 billion and 500 billion, indicating a strong focus on regional development and infrastructure [5] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's lithium division calls for a fair and orderly market environment, urging companies to collaborate and avoid harmful competition, which may impact the lithium industry positively [7][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic market shows resilience with June excavator sales increasing by 13% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - The export market remains strong, with excavator exports up by 19% year-on-year in June, supported by improving global investment sentiment [2] - Emerging markets are experiencing high demand, and domestic non-excavator segments are showing signs of recovery, enhancing profit certainty for manufacturers [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Market - In June 2025, excavator sales reached 18,804 units, with domestic sales at 8,136 units, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase. Cumulative domestic excavator sales for the first half of 2025 were 65,637 units, up 22.9% year-on-year. Loader sales in June were 12,014 units, with domestic sales at 6,015 units, increasing by 14% year-on-year. The report suggests that the engineering machinery sector can achieve considerable growth throughout the year due to factors such as improved funding availability and ongoing replacement demand [1] Overseas Market - In June 2025, excavator exports totaled 10,668 units, a 19% year-on-year increase, while loader exports reached 5,999 units, up 9%. For the first half of 2025, cumulative excavator exports were 54,883 units, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase. Despite some downward pressure in regions like Europe and Russia, demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America remains strong. The anticipated reduction in tariff uncertainties is expected to boost market recovery [2] Profitability and Market Conditions - The report indicates that over 80% of profits for engineering machinery manufacturers come from overseas markets, with significant contributions from regions like Indonesia, South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. The first half of 2025 saw a recovery in overseas demand, supporting manufacturer profits. Additionally, the domestic non-excavator segment is expected to recover, with profit margins projected to improve from 15% to 20% in 2025, reducing previous profit drag [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the domestic market is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with 2-3 years of growth potential remaining. The overseas emerging market expansion is progressing well, maintaining high demand levels. Recommended stocks include Sany Heavy Industry, a leading comprehensive manufacturer, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic [4]