张尧浠：金价多头动力减缓、震荡调整后仍待向上攀升 黄金市场上周：国际黄金延续前周触底回升之力如期再度收涨，整体走势震荡上行，自周初高开于3366.90美元/盎司，并先行收复高开缺口录得当周低点 3344.88美元，之后受到支撑与阻力而连续震荡走盘，并与周四多头动力增强突破阻力，周五又进一步反弹录得当周高点3408.23美元后，动力有所减弱， 持续震荡波动，最终收于3397.90美元，周振幅63.35美元，相对于前周收盘价3362.46美元，收涨35.44美元，涨幅1.05% 影响上，虽然持续受到阻力压制连续获利了结，使得多头动力减缓震荡波动，但受到支撑买盘和关税再度提升产生的担忧，以及美联储官员提升降息前景 等等因素的持续，而仍具买盘动力，并且由于市场对黄金可能被征收高额关税产生了恐慌性反应而在周四强势走强，但周五时段，特朗普政府对此进行澄 清，表示进口黄金不会被征收关税。最终多头动力减缓，持续震荡。 展望本周周一(8月11日)：国际黄金开盘震荡偏弱运行，受到上周五行情影响，但整体依然处于众多看涨均线支撑上方，故此，如有回撤触及支撑，也是 继续可看涨反弹。 另外，美元指数日图受到上升趋势支撑附近止跌表现，限制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector's business conditions deteriorated for the first time since December of the previous year due to ongoing tariff concerns dominating the business environment [1] Group 1 - The chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, Chris Williamson, highlighted the impact of tariff worries on the manufacturing sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing volatility due to rumors about the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has led to fluctuations in gold prices, with expectations of further adjustments and potential upward movement towards the $3400 mark [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 16, gold prices opened at $3324.52 per ounce, initially supported by buying pressure but later faced resistance, leading to a low of $3319.51 and a high of $3376.99 during the day [3][5]. - The final closing price for gold was $3347.41, reflecting a daily increase of $22.89, or 0.69%, with a trading range of $57.48 [3][5]. - The market is currently influenced by various economic indicators, including a surprising drop in the PPI, which has reduced inflationary pressures and bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts [5][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices have not broken below the 10-week moving average, indicating potential support and a possible entry point for bullish positions if prices decline further [8][10]. - The daily chart shows that gold is maintaining a triangular consolidation pattern, suggesting that after this period of volatility, there may be an upward movement, with key resistance levels at $3355 and $3366 [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes initial jobless claims, retail sales, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, with expectations that most of these will exert downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The market's reaction to Trump's denial of Powell's dismissal adds uncertainty, which may increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market speculation about Trump's plan to sanction Russian crude oil led to a recovery in gold prices and a significant increase in silver prices, with Shanghai silver hitting a new record high. The tariff concerns resurfaced, but the gold price fluctuations were limited. The increase in silver price was driven by gold price recovery and recent capital inflows, and the upward trend of silver price remained unchanged [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to decline. The gold price sentiment was high and it was still prone to rise rather than fall. The silver price mainly followed the gold price, and the tariff concerns had a stronger impact on the silver price, which was prone to an enlarged increase [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed slightly lower, and the European three major stock indexes fell across the board. The US bond yields rose across the board, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 6.15 basis points to 4.409%. The US dollar index rose 0.10% to 97.59, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1783. COMEX gold futures rose 1.34% to $3370.30 per ounce. The basis was - 4.01, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 27 kilograms to 21,585 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long position increased [4][5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of stock indexes, bond yields, and the US dollar index performance. COMEX silver futures rose 4.74% to $39.08 per ounce. The basis was - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,435 kilograms to 1,303,593 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The market speculated that Trump planned to sanction Russian crude oil, and the tariff concerns resurfaced, causing the gold price to recover. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to 1.18 yuan/gram. Trump's change in attitude towards Russia drove up the gold price due to the hedging demand, but the reaction was limited [4]. - **Silver**: The market speculation about Trump's plan to sanction Russian crude oil, combined with recent capital inflows, led to a significant increase in the silver price. Shanghai silver continued to hit a new record high, and the ratio of silver to gold continued to decline. The premium of Shanghai silver converged to about 330 yuan/kilogram. The tariff fluctuations resurfaced, and the capital support remained, so the upward trend of the silver price remained unchanged [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's May core machinery orders [15] - 10:00 The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the import and export situation in the first half of 2025 [16] - 15:00 The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the financial statistics in the first half of 2025 [16] - 20:30 Canada's May wholesale sales [16] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.01, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 27 kilograms to 21,585 kilograms [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,435 kilograms to 1,303,593 kilograms [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, and the main long position increased. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on July 11, 2025, the long position volume was 190,529, a decrease of 1,296 or - 0.68% compared with July 10; the short position volume was 60,067, a decrease of 2,596 or - 4.14%; the net position was 130,462, an increase of 1,300 or 1.01% [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on July 11, 2025, the long position volume was 451,592, an increase of 60,922 or 15.59% compared with July 10; the short position volume was 345,222, an increase of 31,598 or 10.08%; the net position was 106,370, an increase of 29,324 or 38.06% [6][33].

Group 1 - The international gold price has shown a recovery after hitting a low of $3282.56 per ounce, closing at $3357.76, with a weekly fluctuation of $86.16 and a gain of $23.21, or 0.7% [1][3] - The market is influenced by concerns over tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which have increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [7][8] - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is supporting gold demand, with indications that there may be three rate cuts next year [8][9] Group 2 - The dollar index has shown signs of recovery but has not exerted sustained pressure on gold prices, with the market reacting to new tariff agreements and geopolitical developments [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend unless this support is broken [11][12] - The overall market sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of further price increases in the coming months, despite potential short-term corrections [9][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Gold prices are in a state of oscillation due to the game between the convergence of interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about tariffs, and the market is waiting for the Fed's June meeting minutes [2] - The uncertainty of Trump's tariff plan provides support for the gold price, limiting its downside space, and the tariff dynamics and the Fed's June meeting minutes will be the main focus of gold market traders [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Key Information - On July 7, US President Trump stated that starting from August 1, he will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea [3] - German Deputy Chancellor and Finance Minister Lindner emphasized that the EU is still willing to remain open and continue negotiations but will not accept any unequal conditions [3] - US President Trump signed an executive order on Monday instructing federal agencies to strengthen the provisions in the "Great American Act" to abolish or modify tax credits for solar and wind energy projects [3] Price Logic - The failure of the gold price to break through $3350 is mainly due to the cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July, which weakens the attractiveness of gold. Although Trump's tariff announcement has short - term stimulated the safe - haven demand for gold, the stabilization of the US dollar has limited the rebound of the gold price [4] - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the face of potential tariff inflation pressure, as reflected by the sharp rise of the US dollar against the yen and the upward movement of US Treasury yields [4] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, in the short - term, it is expected to decline; in the medium - term, it will fluctuate; and the intraday view is weakly fluctuating, with a suggestion of waiting and seeing. For copper, in the short - term and medium - term, it is expected to rise; and the intraday view is strongly fluctuating, with a short - term bullish outlook [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term view: decline; medium - term view: fluctuation; intraday view: weakly fluctuating; reference view: wait and see. Core logic: US non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, leading to a stronger dollar and putting pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, the decline in market risk appetite since last Friday and the high - level adjustment of US stocks increased short - term safe - haven demand for gold, providing support for gold prices [1][3] Copper - Short - term and medium - term view: rise; intraday view: strongly fluctuating; reference view: short - term bullish. Core logic: Last week, the macro environment cooled, the US interest - rate cut expectation decreased, and tariff concerns increased, causing copper prices to fall. On Monday, copper prices continued to decline with reduced positions. On the industrial side, supply is expected to decrease due to smelter losses and policy expectations, and demand is strong but marginally declining. Technically, attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average support [1][5]

Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The core view is that gold prices are expected to decline below $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, marking the end of the current record rally [1][2] - Citigroup analysts predict that gold prices will peak between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in Q3 of this year, before gradually falling to a range of $2500 to $2700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, representing a decline of approximately 20-25% from current forward prices [2] - The report outlines three scenarios for gold price movements: a base case (60% probability) where prices remain above $3000 per ounce for the next quarter before declining, a bullish case (20% probability) where geopolitical tensions and inflation risks push prices to new highs, and a bearish case (20% probability) where resolution of tariff issues leads to a sharp price drop [4] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Short-term, gold is expected to maintain high prices in Q3 due to strong investment demand [5] - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by concerns over tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical risks, rather than central bank purchases; resilient jewelry consumption also supports prices [6] - Global gold expenditure as a percentage of GDP has reached 0.5%, the highest level in the past fifty years, indicating strong investor preference for gold as a safe-haven asset [7] Group 3: Future Economic Conditions - In Q4, global growth confidence may improve slightly, particularly with the implementation of U.S. stimulus budgets, which could reduce safe-haven sentiment; a potential shift towards more moderate trade policies under Trump may also decrease market uncertainty [9] - Expectations of a shift from tightening to a neutral stance by the Federal Reserve could further diminish gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [9] - Historical data over the past 55 years shows that when investment demand declines, gold prices tend to fall, as price adjustments lead to reduced jewelry consumption and encourage inventory holders to sell [10] Group 4: Industrial Metals Outlook - In contrast to gold, Citigroup maintains a structurally bullish outlook on industrial metals despite short-term pressures from tariffs and weak demand [11] - The aluminum market is particularly favored, with the report highlighting aluminum as a "future-facing" metal, constrained on the supply side by energy intensity and driven on the demand side by strong growth in AI data centers, humanoid robots, and decarbonization processes [12][13] - Citigroup forecasts a supply shortage in aluminum over the next five years at current price levels, necessitating prices to rise above $3000 per ton to incentivize sufficient supply growth [14]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unresolved in the short term, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold prices, which have rebounded significantly [1][8]. Market Performance - Last week, international gold prices opened at $3311.77 per ounce, reached a low of $3293.69, and then rebounded to a high of $3446.53, closing at $3433.74, marking a weekly increase of $121.97 or 3.68% [1][3]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $152.84, indicating strong volatility in the gold market [1]. Influencing Factors - The decline in the US dollar index provided support for gold prices, driven by technical buying and increasing geopolitical tensions, which heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [3][7]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was lower than expected, enhancing the prospects for interest rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that despite recent volatility, gold prices remain above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend since last year [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold prices have been consistently moving higher, with the potential to reach $3500 or $3545 in the near future [11][13]. Future Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, along with concerns over tariffs and economic conditions, are expected to sustain demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [7][8]. - The market anticipates continued upward movement in gold prices, supported by both technical indicators and fundamental factors [8][10].

Core Insights - US one-year inflation expectations decreased from 6.6% last month to 5.1% this month, marking a three-month low [1] - Long-term inflation expectations fell for the second consecutive month, dropping from 4.2% in May to 4.1% [1] - Consumer concerns regarding the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation have eased in June [1] Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation rate expectation is now at 5.1%, down from 6.6% [1] - Long-term inflation expectations are at 4.1%, down from 4.2% [1] - Both indices represent the lowest levels in three months [1] Consumer Sentiment - There is a general belief that trade policies may still lead to inflation increases over the next year, despite the easing of tariff concerns [1]