Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market - A" with a maintained rating [5]. Core Views - The market is currently influenced by the ongoing US-China trade tensions, leading to increased risk aversion. The focus is on the strategic attributes of rare earths and the safe-haven properties of gold. Despite potential short-term adjustments, the fundamentals for industrial metals, strategic metals, and precious metals remain positive, with a continued bullish outlook on metals such as rare earths, copper, aluminum, tin, gold, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have reached new highs, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4234.9 and $50.4 per ounce, reflecting increases of 6.5% and 7.3% respectively. Concerns over tariffs persist, and there has been a significant increase in global gold reserves, with a 19-ton increase reported in August 2025. The outlook for gold prices remains bullish in the medium to long term [2]. - Recommendations include stocks such as Shandong Gold, Shandong International, China National Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Hunan Gold [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown a slight decline, with LME copper closing at $10,607 per ton, down 1.81% from the previous week. The supply side is facing challenges, with Japanese copper smelting companies indicating reduced processing fees, leading to profit declines. Demand remains strong, with copper rod and wire cable production rates increasing [3]. - The outlook for copper prices is positive due to supply constraints, despite potential impacts from tariffs and macroeconomic policies [3]. - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Hebei Steel Resources, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Yunnan Copper [4]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2778.5 per ton, with a slight increase of 1.2%. The overall macroeconomic environment is optimistic, supporting stable aluminum prices. However, uncertainties from tariff wars and overseas mining events could still impact prices [4]. - The demand for aluminum remains stable, with no significant changes reported in construction and industrial material needs [4]. - Suggested stocks include Shenhuo Co., Tianshan Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, China Hongqiao, Hongchuang Holdings, Yunnan Aluminum, and China Aluminum [4]. Tin - Tin prices have decreased slightly, with the SHFE main contract at 280,750 yuan per ton. The market sentiment is weak, but there is an expectation of price stability due to tight supply conditions [9]. - Recommended stocks include Yunnan Tin, Huaxi Silver Tin, and Xingye Nonferrous [10]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices have shown slight declines, but the outlook remains positive due to expected supply changes and increased demand. The market is less pessimistic about the impacts of US-China trade tensions compared to earlier in the year [10]. - Recommended stocks include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, Shenghe Resources, Huahong Technology, Jinke Magnetics, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials [11]. - Cobalt prices are on the rise, driven by tight supply conditions and increased demand from battery manufacturers. The market is expected to see continued price increases [11]. - Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tengyuan Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, and Greeenme [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Gold: Due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations, gold prices continued to reach new highs. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, with the Shanghai gold premium slightly converging to -3.5 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment significantly rising [4]. - Silver: Affected by tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations, silver prices also reached new highs. Although the increase in silver prices was not significantly enlarged, the upward trend remained unchanged, and the Shanghai silver premium converged to -125 yuan/gram, with domestic silver price sentiment stable [5]. - Logic: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices were difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly followed gold prices. Tariff concerns had a stronger impact on silver prices, increasing the risk of a larger increase in silver prices [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: US stocks fell, European stocks rose, US bond yields declined (10 - year US bond yield fell 5.94 basis points to 3.973%), the US dollar index dropped 0.31% to 98.36, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly. COMEX gold futures rose 3.40% to $4344.3 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, COMEX silver futures rose 3.99% to $53.43 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was -1.82, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures (neutral). Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 5862 kilograms to 80961 kilograms (bearish). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased (bullish) [4]. - Silver: The basis was -27, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures (neutral). Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 48174 kilograms to 982255 kilograms (neutral). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The main net position was long, and the main long position increased (bullish) [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Events: Speech by Japanese central bank deputy governor Uchida Masakazu at 14:35; speech by RBA deputy governor Hauser at 15:15; release of Eurozone September CPI final value at 17:00; speech by Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill at 17:35; possible release of US September new home starts and other data at 20:30; speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member and German central bank president Nagel and German finance minister Kingbeil at 20:45; release of Italian central bank quarterly economic report at 21:00; speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene at 00:00 the next day; speech by St. Louis Fed President Musalem at 00:15 the next day; speech by Bank of England deputy governor Breeden at 00:30 the next day; speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn at 01:00 the next day; release of US August international capital flow at 04:00 the next day [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis was -1.82, and the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 5862 kilograms to 80961 kilograms [4]. - Silver: The basis was -27, and the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 48174 kilograms to 982255 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased [4]. - Silver: The main net position was long, and the main long position increased [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to rising tariff concerns, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and a decline in risk appetite, both gold and silver prices are on an upward trend. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts. Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and tariff concerns may lead to an enlarged increase in silver prices [4][5]. - With Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new U.S. government will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices remains high, with prices still more likely to rise than fall. Silver prices, mainly following gold prices, are also affected by tariff concerns, which may lead to an enlarged increase [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: U.S. stock and European stock indices closed with mixed results. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.37 basis points to 4.032%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.39% to 98.67. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $4224.90 per ounce. The gold futures price was 960.34, the spot price was 957.3, with a basis of - 3.04 (spot at a discount to futures). Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2916 kilograms to 75099 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, silver prices rose significantly. COMEX silver futures rose 3.76% to $52.53 per ounce. The silver futures price was 11966, the spot price was 11930, with a basis of - 36 (spot at a discount to futures). Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 32643 kilograms to 1030429 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to rising tariff concerns, a decline in risk appetite, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to - 2.3 yuan/gram, indicating a significant increase in domestic sentiment. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices continue to rise significantly. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded significantly to - 40 yuan/gram, indicating a significant recovery in domestic sentiment. The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Multiple economic data releases and speeches are scheduled, including the Japanese central bank's market operation meeting, Japan's August core machinery orders, Australia's September employment report, the U.K.'s August GDP, and speeches by multiple central bank officials such as those from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: Bullish factors include global turmoil, a significant shadow Fed, rising expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and tariff concerns. Bearish factors include the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9][13]. - **Silver**: Bullish factors are similar to those of gold, and in addition, non - ferrous metal tariffs support silver prices. Bearish factors are also similar to those of gold [12][13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: As of October 15, 2025, the long position volume was 212,862, an increase of 2,204 (1.05%) from the previous day. The short position volume was 80,154, an increase of 1,323 (1.68%). The net long position was 132,708, an increase of 881 (0.67%) [29]. - **Silver**: As of October 15, 2025, the long position volume was 379,089, an increase of 22,782 (6.39%) from the previous day. The short position volume was 287,130, an increase of 23,637 (8.97%). The net long position was 91,959, a decrease of 855 (- 0.92%) [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite significantly cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly but rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to -5 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment increased notably [4]. - For silver, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai silver expanded significantly to -250 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment for silver price recovered notably [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 - **Gold**: The U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 2.50 basis points to 4.028%), the dollar index fell 0.21% to 99.05, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.14, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.64% to $4159.60 per ounce. The basis was -3.97 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures increased by 1455 kilograms to 72183 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The U.S. three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 6.37 basis points to 4.053%), the dollar index rose 0.43% to 99.26, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.1478, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.17% to $50.35 per ounce. The basis was -41 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 61384 kilograms to 1063072 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [6]. 3.2每日提示 - **Gold**: The expected events to watch include China's CPI and PPI, whether the U.S. government shutdown ends, the Fed's Beige Book, and intensive speeches by Fed and ECB members. Despite the resurfaced tariff concerns, the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly and then rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - **Silver**: The expected events to watch are the same as for gold. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. 3.3今日关注 The events to watch on this day include: at 07:30, the speech of Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs of the Reserve Bank of Australia; at 09:30, China's September CPI and PPI; the time - undetermined release of India's September imports, exports, and trade balance; at 15:40, the speech of de Guindos, Vice - President of the European Central Bank; at 16:00, the speech of Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 17:00, the euro - zone's August industrial output; possibly at 20:30, the U.S. October New York Fed Manufacturing Index; at 21:30, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the "Invest in America Forum"; at 21:45, the speeches of ECB Governing Council members Donnelly and Rehn; at 23:45, the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 23:50, the speech of Villeroy, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of France; at 00:15, Donnelly's participation in a panel discussion at the IIF Annual Meeting; at 00:30 the next day, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the Nomura Research Forum; at 01:00 the next day, Fed Governor Waller's talk on artificial intelligence (AI); at 02:00 the next day, the release of the Fed's Beige Book and the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 02:30 the next day, the speech of Jeff Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2025 FOMC voter); at 03:45 the next day, the participation of Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, in a fireside chat during the Nomura Research Forum; at 05:50 the next day, the speech of Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor for Financial Markets of the Reserve Bank of Australia [15]. 3.4基本面数据 - **Gold**: The fundamental factors are a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory increase is bearish, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [4][5]. - **Silver**: The fundamental factors are also a mix. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory change is neutral, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [6]. 3.5持仓数据 - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold decreased by 4.28% (from 220,070 to 210,658), the short positions increased by 0.33% (from 78,569 to 78,831), and the net position decreased by 6.84% (from 141,501 to 131,827) [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver decreased by 3.22% (from 368,167 to 356,307), the short positions decreased by 1.81% (from 268,339 to 263,493), and the net position decreased by 7.03% (from 99,828 to 92,814) [6][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices recovered losses and reached new highs due to tariff concerns and a recovery in risk - appetite. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. - Silver prices saw a significant increase and reached a record high. The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged, with the influence of tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. [4][6] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - For gold, the tech - stocks supported the rebound of US stocks, tariff concerns eased, but gold prices still rose. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and COMEX gold futures rose 3.24% to $4130 per ounce. - For silver, the tech - stocks supported the rebound of US stocks, and silver prices increased significantly. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.47% to $50.775 per ounce. [4][6] 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.25, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures is 70728 kilograms and remains unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing. - **Silver**: The basis is - 62, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 17785 kilograms to 1169061 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is increasing. [5][6] 3. Today's Focus - Today, pay attention to the intensive speeches of the Fed Chairman and ECB members, the Eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index, and the UK unemployment rate. Also, there are various economic data releases and official speeches throughout the day, such as the release of the Singapore Monetary Authority's monetary policy statement, the minutes of the RBA's September monetary policy meeting, etc. [4][15] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The Shanghai gold premium is maintained at - 9.6 yuan/gram. - **Silver**: The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged. The Shanghai silver premium has significantly expanded to - 290 yuan/gram, and the sentiment of domestic silver prices has clearly recovered. [4][6] 5. Position Data - **Gold**: On October 13, 2025, the long - order volume was 220,070, an increase of 1.45% compared to the previous day; the short - order volume was 78,569, an increase of 0.74%; the net position was 141,501, an increase of 1.84%. - **Silver**: On October 13, 2025, the long - order volume was 368,167, an increase of 7.22% compared to October 10; the short - order volume was 268,339, an increase of 7.57%; the net position was 99,828, an increase of 6.27%. [31][34]

Report Overview - **Date**: October 13, 2025 - **Source**: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to tariff concerns, the price rebounded. Although the sentiment eased on Monday, the upward trend remains. The premium of Shanghai gold slightly expanded to -9.6 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, affected by tariff threats, the price rebounded on Monday after a decline. The premium of Shanghai silver significantly converged to -581 yuan/gram, and there is still support for the silver price [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: Affected by Trump's tariff threats, U.S. stocks tumbled, and the gold price rebounded. On Monday, the sentiment eased, and the gold price continued to rise. COMEX gold futures rose 1.58% to $4035.50 per ounce. The U.S. three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European three major stock indexes also closed down, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1.95 basis points to 4.117%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.57% to 98.84, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.1478 [4]. - **Silver**: Affected by Trump's tariff threats, U.S. stocks tumbled, and the silver price rebounded on Monday after a decline. COMEX silver futures rose 0.76% to $47.52 per ounce [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -3.25, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 70,728 kilograms, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is -62, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 1,169,061 kilograms, a daily decrease of 17,785 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Japan and Canada's stock markets are closed for holidays throughout the day. - China's September trade balance is to be released at an unspecified time during the day. - A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opens at an unspecified time during the day. - The winner of the Nobel Economics Prize will be announced at 17:45. - Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene will give a speech at 19:05. - The World Bank and the IMF will hold the 2025 Autumn Annual Meeting throughout the day until October 18. - 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will give a speech at 00:10 the next day [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation since Trump took office, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expectations and the reality of the new U.S. government's policies will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise [10]. - **Silver**: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. Factors such as global turmoil, the shadow Fed's significant influence, rising expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and tariff concerns are positive for the silver price. On the other hand, factors like the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative for the silver price [13][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased. The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold on October 10, 2025, was 216,933, a decrease of 12,288 or 5.36% compared to the previous day; the short - position volume was 77,992, a decrease of 1,688 or 2.12%; the net position was 138,941, a decrease of 10,600 or 7.09% [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position increased. The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver on October 10, 2025, was 343,384, a decrease of 564 or 0.16% compared to the previous day; the short - position volume was 249,445, a decrease of 9,664 or 3.73%; the net position was 93,939, an increase of 9,100 or 10.73% [6][34].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint There is a concern about tariffs again, leading to a correction in Shanghai copper prices, but the expected depth of the decline is limited [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - The Shanghai copper market rallied after the holiday, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened on a weekly basis [11] Fundamental Data - On October 10, the spot TC for copper concentrates was about -$40.7/ton, still at a low level [15] - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca copper mine extended its shutdown [18] - The spread between refined and scrap copper strengthened [20] - China's electrolytic copper production in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year [22] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [24] - After the holiday, both the spot inventory and bonded area inventory of electrolytic copper increased [25] - LME copper inventory decreased on a weekly basis, while COMEX copper inventory increased on a weekly basis [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased significantly on a weekly basis this week, as the post - holiday copper price rally suppressed consumption and dragged down the operating rate [28] - From September 1 to 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 16% year - on - year [31] - The planned production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [32] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual figure of the same period last year [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in September rose to 49.8, rebounding for the second consecutive month [37] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service PMI significantly missed expectations [39] - There are differences among Fed officials regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts [40]

Group 1 - Precious metals continue to rise, with spot gold reaching $4060 and silver surpassing $50.80, driven by historical short squeeze in London and trade tensions [1] - Concerns over potential tariffs on gold and other precious metals from the White House have led to significant increases in platinum and palladium prices [1] - President Trump threatened additional tariffs on China, increasing market risk and supporting demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [2] Group 2 - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to a five-month low, while Federal Reserve officials expressed support for further rate cuts, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [2] - The Shanghai gold futures maintain a bullish outlook, with key support at 905, and potential targets of 935/950 [3] - Shanghai silver experienced a significant rise to around 12480, with a bullish trend expected to continue, supported by a key level at 11100 [3]

Group 1 - Nvidia's significant investment in OpenAI has reignited the AI boom, leading to record highs in the three major U.S. stock indices and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, reflecting heightened market sentiment [1] - Risk assets and safe-haven assets have both reached historical highs, raising questions among investors about whether the market has achieved "perfect pricing" and if it has fully reflected all positive factors, potentially limiting future gains [3] - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that the market is far from "perfect pricing," indicating that concerns about future risks provide potential upside for the market [3][4] Group 2 - The report outlines five key reasons why the market is not "perfectly priced," starting with the historical high in gold prices, which signals market fear rather than extreme optimism [4] - Current U.S. inflation expectations remain elevated, with the 2-year inflation swap rate at 2.92%, indicating that inflation pressures are priced in, which limits the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates [7][5] - Ongoing tariff concerns persist, with potential for additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals, reflecting unresolved risks in the market [8][9] Group 3 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of concern, with non-farm payroll growth averaging only 64,000 over the past six months, the lowest in the current economic cycle, and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, the highest since late 2021 [9] - There is a widespread expectation among investors for further interest rate cuts by major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which reflects concerns about potential economic slowdown rather than strong economic signals [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The rise of precious metals on September 1st was driven by macro - policy expectations and political risks. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and concerns about the Fed's independence boosted the prices of gold and silver. Looking ahead, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions in the market [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Price Performance - On September 1st, gold and silver prices rose significantly. The Shanghai gold main contract rose 2.08% intraday, the COMEX gold price hit a record high, and the London spot gold price approached $3500 per ounce. The Shanghai silver main contract soared 4.16%, and both COMEX silver and London silver reached their highest levels since 2012 [3]. B. Driving Factors - The rise was due to dual drivers of macro - policy expectations and political risks. Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting increased the market's expectation of a restarted interest - rate cut cycle in September. Trump's intention to dismiss Fed Chair Cook and control the Fed raised concerns about central - bank independence, enhancing the safe - haven appeal of precious metals. Also, the US Geological Survey's plan to list silver as a critical mineral led to tariff concerns, boosting silver's performance [3]. C. Market Outlook - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions. Technically, the next target for gold is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge the $49 - $50 historical high [3]. D. Key Data to Watch - In the coming week, focus on US labor - market data, ISM manufacturing and services PMI data. The weekly range for London gold is [3350, 3600], and for London silver is [38, 42] [6]. E. Index Performance - On September 1st, the commodity index was 2212.10 (-0.02%), the commodity 20 index was 2466.23 (+0.08%), and the industrial products index was 2227.31 (-0.73%). The precious metals index on September 1st had a daily increase of 2.63%, a 5 - day increase of 3.10%, a 1 - month increase of 4.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 27.38% [43][45].