粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约2933元/吨，较前日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.14%；菜粕2601合约2416元/吨，较前日 变动+11元/吨，幅度+0.46%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01+37， 较前日变动+4；江苏地区豆粕现货2880元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-53，较前日变动+4；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2900元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-33，较前日变动+4。福建地区菜粕现货价格2580 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM01+164，较前日变动-11。 近期市场资讯，9月26日，马托格罗索州农业经济所发布的一份调查显示，截至本周五，巴西马托格罗索州2025/26 年度大豆播种进度触及5.97%，速度远快于去年同期。美国农业部周四公布的出口销售报告显示，9月18日止当周， 美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增72.45万吨，市场预估为净增60-160万吨。 市场分析 整体来看，当前新季美豆收割正在进行中，近期优良率略有下滑，伴随着本年度种植面积的下降，整体产量同比 预计有所 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 10142 | 221 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2444 | 49 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 484 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) 347712 | 0 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) 41507 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 101 378057 | 25 -20054 | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 39516 | 21725 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -51747 | 21457 | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 8057 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 9245 | 0 | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 617.6 | 0.3 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5281 | 1 | | 现货市场 | 现货价:菜油:江苏(日,元/吨) 10 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For both the粕类 and玉米 sectors, the overall strategy is rated as neutral [3] 2. Core Views - The adjustment in this report is slightly higher than market expectations, with the price of US soybeans declining. Attention should be focused on the changes in the new - season US soybeans. In the Chinese market, the strengthening of Brazilian soybean premiums has increased import costs, supporting domestic soybean prices. However, the domestic soybean supply remains abundant, and downstream inventories are high. Attention should also be paid to Sino - US policy changes [2] - For corn, on the supply side, the remaining old - crop corn with traders is limited, and its price is firm. New - crop corn is gradually coming onto the market, and traders are trying to buy at lower prices. But due to the acquisition needs of deep - processing enterprises, the price of new - crop corn in Heilongjiang has slightly increased. On the demand side, feed enterprises mainly use their existing inventories and are cautious about purchasing new - crop corn, while deep - processing enterprises also hope to buy at lower prices. Attention should be paid to the listing and acquisition of new - crop corn [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data (粕类) - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean粕2601 contract was 2993 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous day; the closing price of the菜粕2601 contract was 2470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.41%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the spot price of bean粕 was 2980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the spot price of菜粕 was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Market Information**: Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters expects soybean exports in September 2025 to be 753 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and last year's figure. From January to September 2025, exports are expected to reach 9563 million tons, and from October to December, 1600 million tons [1] Market News and Important Data (Corn) - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn2511 contract was 2177 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+ 0.74%); the closing price of the corn starch2511 contract was 2471 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+ 0.73%) [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - **Market Information**: Canada's 2025 wheat production is expected to be 3660 million tons, a 1.9% year - on - year increase, with an increase in both yield per acre and harvested area [3] Market Analysis - For soybeans, the US soybean price decline is due to the report adjustment. In China, higher import costs support domestic prices, but supply is abundant and downstream inventories are high [2] - For corn, the supply is in a state of transition from old - crop to new - crop, and the demand side is cautious, waiting for better prices [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for both sectors is neutral [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the corn market: Cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views - For the粕类 market, the adjustment in the September report was slightly higher than market expectations, leading to a decline in US soybean prices. Attention should be paid to the situation of new - season US soybeans. In the domestic market, although the increase in Brazilian premiums has supported soybean prices to some extent, the supply is still sufficient and downstream inventory is high. Policy changes between China and the US need to be monitored [2]. - For the corn market, on the supply side, the new - season grain supply is abundant. On the demand side, feed and deep - processing enterprises are cautious about purchasing new - season corn. The situation of new - season corn listing and acquisition needs to be focused on [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - 粕类 - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3042 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2504 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-1.07%) [1]. - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **US Department of Agriculture Report**: For the 2025/26 US soybean season, the planted area was expected to be 81.1 million acres, and the harvested area 80.3 million acres, both up 200,000 acres; the average yield per acre was 53.5 bushels, down 0.1 bushel; the production was 4.301 billion bushels, up 9 million bushels; the export forecast was 1.685 billion bushels, down 20 million bushels [1]. Market News and Important Data - Corn - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2167 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.37%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2443 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.25%) [3]. - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **US Department of Agriculture Report**: For the 2025/26 US corn season, the yield per acre was down 2.1 bushels to 186.7 bushels/acre; the planted area was up to 98.7 million acres; the production was up 72 million bushels to 16.814 billion bushels; the export volume was up 100 million bushels to a record 2.975 billion bushels; the ending inventory was down 7 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels [3]. Market Analysis - 粕类 - The bean meal futures price was weakly volatile. The adjustment in the September report was slightly higher than market expectations, causing a decline in US soybean prices. In the domestic market, the increase in Brazilian premiums supported soybean prices, but supply was sufficient and downstream inventory was high. Policy changes between China and the US need attention [2]. Market Analysis - Corn - **Supply**: Traders had little old - crop corn left, and the price of old - crop corn was firm. New - crop corn was gradually coming onto the market, and traders were trying to buy at lower prices. However, due to the demand from deep - processing enterprises, the price of new - crop corn in Heilongjiang increased slightly. New - season grain supply was abundant [4][5]. - **Demand**: Feed enterprises mainly used their inventory and were cautious about purchasing new - season corn. Deep - processing enterprises also wanted to buy at lower prices. The situation of new - season corn listing and acquisition needs to be monitored [5]. Strategies - For the粕类 market, the strategy is neutral [3]. - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products from Guotai Junan Futures on September 16, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, etc. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Palm oil: Supported by US soybean oil, it is advisable to take a long - position at low prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans closed higher, and the outcome of China - US negotiations should be monitored [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Affected by the sentiment of economic and trade talks, it may rebound from an oversold condition [2][13]. - Soybean: It will fluctuate in a rebound [2][13]. - Corn: It will move in a sideways pattern [2][16]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to macro - policies [2][20]. - Cotton: The market is focused on the listing of new cotton [2][24]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is ending, and inventory remains high [2][30]. - Pigs: The weakness of spot prices is hard to reverse, while policies are relatively strong [2][32]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][36]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,422 yuan/ton with a 1.36% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,476 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 0.65% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,392 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase [5]. - **News**: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 742,648 tons, a 2.55% increase from the same period last month. India's palm oil imports in August 2025 increased by 15.76% month - on - month to 990,528 tons [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [12]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,042 yuan/ton with a 1.46% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 3,043 yuan/ton with a 0.26% decrease. DCE soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3,939 yuan/ton with a 0.43% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 3,946 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase [13]. - **News**: On September 15, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to harvest pressure and concerns about Chinese demand. As of September 14, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 5% [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both soybean meal and soybean is +1 [15]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,167 yuan/ton with a 1.46% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,169 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. C2601's daily - session closing price was 2,156 yuan/ton with a 0.60% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,159 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase [17]. - **News**: The northern corn collection and port price was 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for corn is 0 [19]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The original sugar price was 16.67 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,549 yuan/ton [20]. - **News**: India's monsoon precipitation increased again. Brazil's sugar exports decreased. Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for sugar is 1 [23]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase, and the night - session closing price was 13,910 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase [24]. - **News**: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, and the inventory of high - quality lint was low [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for cotton is 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2510's closing price was 3,126 yuan/500 kg with a 2.90% increase, and egg 2601's closing price was 3,369 yuan/500 kg with a 0.51% increase [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for eggs is 0 [30]. Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan spot price was 13,330 yuan/ton, and the Sichuan spot price was 13,100 yuan/ton [32]. - **Market Logic**: The supply in September is expected to increase significantly, and the spot price is likely to decline further. The 7 - month contract may be subject to policy regulation in the short term [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for pigs is 0 [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton, and the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 8,360 yuan/ton [36]. - **Spot Market**: The new - season peanuts are expected to be listed in late September. The prices in various regions are generally stable [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for peanuts is 0 [40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Oils and Fats - Palm oil: The MPOB report shows an inventory increase to 2.2 million tons, and the unexpected decline in the first 10 - day export data is bearish. There is a risk of the futures price falling below 4,400 ringgit and continuing to weaken. In the domestic market, it will first test the support at 9,000 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil continues to decline, domestic palm oil may follow suit [1]. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the USDA report to lower the U.S. soybean yield forecast, but the high - quality rate of U.S. soybeans is high, so the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. In the absence of Chinese purchases, the USDA may lower the U.S. soybean export forecast. The approaching harvest and concentrated supply pressure will weigh on the market. In the domestic market, although the demand season is coming, the current supply is excessive, and the basis quotation will fluctuate slightly [1]. Meal - The high - quality rate of U.S. soybeans is still high, suppressing market bullish sentiment. The U.S. soybean supply is strong and demand is weak, while Brazil's premium is strong, supporting domestic costs. Recently, domestic concerns about future supply have eased, and with soybean auctions, the spot market is loose. Oil mills' soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level, and weak terminal purchasing enthusiasm suppresses the basis. However, the cost provides good support, and the decline space of domestic meal is limited. The supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is not expected to be loose [3]. Pork - The slaughter volume of farmers has stabilized, and the reluctance to sell at low prices has increased. Some areas have seen secondary fattening, which supports the spot price. Although the spot pressure has been realized, the price has reached a low level, and the room for further decline is limited. The demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can absorb the supply is uncertain. There may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals. The market strengthened today due to the Ministry of Agriculture's meeting on capacity regulation, but there is still potential for decline after the short - term rebound, and the overall supply - demand pressure is large [6]. Corn - In the Northeast, the purchase and sale are dull, and the new season corn has not been massively listed, so the price is firm; in North China, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price is slightly weak. As corn transitions to the new season, the old - season inventory is tight, and the new - season corn has not been massively listed, which slightly supports the price. However, the concentrated listing of corn in mid - to late September, the expected increase in production, and the decline in planting costs will put pressure on the price. On the demand side, the purchasing enthusiasm of deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. In the short term, the corn market has weak supply and demand, and the futures price is under pressure. In the medium term, it will maintain a weak pattern [8]. Sugar - In the first half of August, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 15.96% year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio reached a new high, resulting in large supply pressure and the price falling below 16 cents per pound. The overall supply pressure of raw sugar remains large, and it is expected to maintain a weak pattern. However, as the sugar price approaches the含税 ethanol price, the future increase in the sugar - alcohol ratio in Brazil is limited. With the new sugar to be listed in less than a month and the pre - sale price lower than the current market price, the sales time for old sugar is limited. The futures price is weak, the market sentiment is bearish, and the sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. Cotton - Some cotton ginning factories have started purchasing this week, but the pricing methods for wadding cotton and spinning cotton are different, and the new - cotton purchase driver is still unclear. In the short term, the price has limited upward and downward space, and the downstream demand improvement is insufficient, and the confidence in the traditional peak season is low. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and it will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [13]. Eggs - In recent days, the increase in traders' purchases may drive up the egg price. However, the high inventory and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the market will limit the price increase. After the second and third rounds of replenishment in the second half of the week, the demand may weaken, and the risk of price decline increases. Overall, the egg price may rebound in early September, but the increase is limited, and a bearish view is maintained [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: The prices of various oils such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil have changed. For example, the price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 1.15%, and the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.59% [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of different oil varieties have also changed. For example, the soybean - palm oil spread in the spot market increased by 6.67%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the 2509 contract increased by 9.76% [1]. - **Inventory and Import Profit**: The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil in China and the import profit of palm oil are also presented in the report [1]. Meal - **Price and Basis**: The prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans have changed. For example, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged, and the basis of the M2601 contract increased by 20% [3]. - **Import Profit and Spread**: The import profit of different origins and the spread between different meal varieties are shown. For example, the import profit of Brazilian soybeans in October decreased by 42.9%, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the 2601 contract increased by 1.52% [3]. Pork - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of futures contracts such as the main contract, the 2511 contract, and the 2601 contract of pork have changed, and the spot prices in different regions are also provided, along with indicators such as slaughter volume, white - strip price, and breeding profit [6]. Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of corn futures contracts such as the 2511 contract and the spot prices in different regions (such as Jinzhou Port and Shekou) have changed. The report also includes information on import profit, processing enterprise vehicle volume, and inventory [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The prices of corn starch futures contracts and spot prices in different regions (such as Changchun and Weifang) have changed, along with information on basis, spread, and processing profit [8]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of sugar futures contracts such as the 2601 and 2605 contracts and the spot prices in different regions (such as Kunming and Nanning) have changed. The report also includes information on import sugar prices, basis, and industry indicators such as production, sales, and inventory [12]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of cotton futures contracts such as the 2601 and 2605 contracts and the spot prices in different regions (such as Xinjiang) have changed. The report also includes information on basis, spread, and industry indicators such as inventory, export volume, and processing profit [13]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of egg futures contracts such as the 10 and 11 contracts and the spot prices in different regions have changed. The report also includes information on basis, spread, and industry indicators such as egg - chicken chick price, culled - chicken price, and breeding profit [15][16].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn: The corn market shows different trends in different regions. In the Northeast, prices are rising, while in North China, prices are falling. Technically, the short - term price is adjusted, and the medium - term is expected to be weak due to high yield and lower costs [1]. - Soybean and Bean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell as investors adjusted positions before the supply - demand report, which is expected to show a slight decline in US soybean yield but still high production. Domestic bean meal prices are mainly oscillating, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Palm Oil and Other Oils: BMD palm oil declined due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit. Domestic oil futures prices are narrowly oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - Eggs: Egg futures rebounded, and spot prices are stable. The supply will affect egg prices in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Pigs: Pig futures are weakly oscillating, and spot prices are also weak. The anti - dumping measures have limited impact, and the market sentiment should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Market Information Summary - Canadian Agricultural Production: As of July 31, Canada's wheat production was 35.94 million tons, and the ending inventory was 4.11 million tons; rapeseed production was 19.24 million tons, and the ending inventory was 1.60 million tons [3]. - Domestic Inventory: As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil inventory increased by 1.60% week - on - week, bean meal inventory increased by 9.09% week - on - week, and imported rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 4.01% week - on - week [3]. - Trading Arrangement: On September 11, 2025, a domestic soybean auction will be held, selling 22,500 tons of domestic soybeans [3]. - US Crop Forecast: Analysts expect US soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 4.271 billion bushels, lower than the August estimate [3]. Group 4: Variety Spread - Contract Spread: The report shows various contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided [4][5][6] - Contract Basis: The report shows various contract bases such as corn basis, soybean basis, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided [12][13][16] Group 5: Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pigs [27]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market is neutral [4] - The investment strategy for the corn market is cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views - In the domestic bean meal market, the current inventory continues to increase, and future soybean arrivals are expected to remain high, so the supply is relatively loose. The decline in import costs has led to a corresponding drop in domestic bean meal prices. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policy negotiations [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply is expected to increase as new grains in North China and Northeast China are approaching the listing time. The demand from deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises is weak, and more attention should be paid to the output of new - season corn [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data for Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3066 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.52%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2521 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.84%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3060 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2640 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - US market information: As of August 31, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 65%, lower than the expected 68%. The export inspection volume for the week ending August 28, 2025, was 472,914 tons. The US soybean crush in July 2025 was 204.7 million bushels [2] 2. Market News and Important Data for Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2193 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2487 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.72%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - US market information: As of August 31, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 69%. The export inspection volume for the week ending August 28, 2025, was 1,407,050 tons [4] 3. Market Analysis - Bean meal: The current domestic bean meal inventory is increasing, and future soybean arrivals are high, so the supply is loose. The decline in import costs has affected the price, and Sino - US trade policy is a key factor [3] - Corn: The supply is expected to increase as new grains are about to be listed. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak, and the output of new - season corn is crucial [5] 4. Strategies - Bean meal: Neutral [4] - Corn: Cautiously bearish [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean meal market currently has increasing inventory and ample supply, and the price has declined due to lower import costs. Future price trends depend on Sino - US trade policy negotiations [2] - In the domestic corn market, the supply is expected to increase with the approaching new grain listing, while demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the yield of new - season corn [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3050 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.13%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2500 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3070 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: In June, the US used 1.045 billion pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production, up 1.95% from May. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast remains at 178.2 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2200 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.32%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2505 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [3] - Market news: In Ukraine, due to drought, the corn yield in the southern part of Poltava decreased by 17% year - on - year, while the northern part had good growth. The far - month FOB price of new - crop corn in the Black Sea was about 214 US dollars/ton, up 8% year - on - year. Australia is expected to produce 33.8 million tons of wheat in the 2025/26 season, up 10.5% from the previous forecast [3] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal Market - Supply: Domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing and there is room for further growth due to high future soybean arrivals [2] - Price: The price has declined due to lower import costs caused by positive Sino - US negotiation expectations and weaker Brazilian premiums [2] 3.2.2 Corn Market - Supply: New grain in North China and Northeast China is about to be listed, increasing the supply. Traders have limited remaining grain [4] - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises have low inventory and demand, and wheat substitution is common [4] 3.3 Strategies - The strategy for the soybean meal market is neutral [3] - The strategy for the corn market is cautiously bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal market is neutral [4] - The investment rating for the corn market is cautiously bearish [6] Core Views - The domestic soybean meal market currently has increasing inventory and relatively loose supply, and the price has declined due to factors such as the expected improvement in Sino - US negotiations and the weakening of Brazilian premiums. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policy negotiations [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply is expected to increase as new grains in North China and Northeast China are approaching the market, while the demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. Attention should be paid to the new - season corn production this week [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3054 yuan/ton, a change of - 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2513 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton (0.00%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2630 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - Canadian rapeseed exports in the 2025/26 season slowed down. As of the week of August 24, the export volume was 79,000 tons, compared with 91,000 tons last week and 255,000 tons two weeks ago. The cumulative export volume since the 2025/26 season was 435,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 47.6% [2] - The EU Commission's August report predicted that the 2025/26 EU rapeseed production would be 18.84 million tons, higher than last month's forecast and the previous year; the sunflower seed production was 8.77 million tons, a 5.3 - percentage - point reduction from last month's forecast but still higher than the previous year [2] Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2193 yuan/ton, a change of + 2 yuan/ton (+ 0.09%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2500 yuan/ton, a change of - 1 yuan/ton (- 0.04%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - As of August 27, the 2024/25 Argentine corn harvest progress was 97.2%, with an average national yield of 7.21 tons per hectare, a 7.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The BAGE maintained the Argentine corn production forecast at 49 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous year due to a reduction in the planting area [4] Market Analysis - Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal inventory continues to increase. Although it is lower than the same period last year, the inventory of over 1 million tons makes the current supply relatively loose. The future domestic soybean arrivals are still high, and the soybean meal inventory has room to further increase [3] - Frequent market news, positive expectations for Sino - US negotiations, and the weakening of Brazilian premiums have led to a decline in import costs and domestic soybean meal prices. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policy negotiations [3] Market Analysis - Corn - Supply: The new grains in North China and Northeast China are approaching the market, and the market supply is expected to increase. Currently, the remaining grains in the hands of traders are tight [5] - Demand: The inventory and operating rate of deep - processing enterprises are seasonally declining, mainly dealing with existing contracts. The inventory of feed enterprises continues to decline, and they mainly purchase corn out of rigid demand, waiting for the new grains. Wheat substitution is more common [5] Strategy - For soybean meal, the strategy is neutral [4] - For corn, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6]