农产品日报 | 2025-11-26 糖价止跌企稳，郑棉延续反弹 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13645元/吨，较前一日变动+60元/吨，幅度+0.44%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14599元/吨，较前一日变动+25元/吨，现货基差CF01+954，较前一日变动-35；3128B棉全国均价14832元/吨， 较前一日变动+39元/吨，现货基差CF01+1187，较前一日变动-21。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部，至11月23日全美棉花采摘进度79%，较去年同期落后4个百分点，较近五年均值落 后1个百分点。其中主产棉区得州采摘进度70%，较去年同期落后9个百分点，较近五年平均进度落后4个百分点。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续反弹。国际方面，USDA报告大幅上调2025/26年度全球棉花产量，其中包括美国、中国和巴西 在内的主产国产量均有所调增；而全球棉花消费量仅微幅上调，使得全球棉花期末库存较9月显著上升，并且由去 库再度转为累库。就美棉而言，因单产明显提高，USDA将美棉产量大幅上调，而出口仅上调4万吨，调整后美棉 销售压力显著提升。总体而言，11月USDA报告调整对 ...

美国玉米主产州未来6-10日，20%地区有较高的把握认为气温将高于正常水平，90%地区均有较高的把 握认为降水量将高于历史中值。 11月25日，星期二，晚籼稻期货主力合约仍维持不变，截止发稿，晚籼稻主力报2535.00元/吨。 市场资讯： 2025年11月第3周，共计14个工作日，巴西累计装出玉米393.9万吨，去年11月为472.64万吨。日均装运 量为28.14万吨/日，较去年11月的24.88万吨/日增加13.11%。 美国农业部出口检验周报显示，截至2025年11月20日当周，美国玉米出口检验量为1,632,144吨，符合分 析师预期，比一周前减少21%，但同比增长62%。2025/26年度迄今出口检验总量比去年同期增长72%。 据外媒报道，咨询机构AgRural周一表示，截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度一茬玉米的播种面积已达到中 南部地区计划种植面积的93%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market has short - term supply pressure and weak demand, but in the long - term, the supply - demand situation is not overly loose and the price is expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2][3] - The sugar market is in a bearish cycle in the 25/26 season with a surplus pattern. The domestic sugar price may be supported in the short - term but is not optimistic in the long - term [5][6] - The pulp market has a loose supply situation, weak demand, and although the price is currently strong due to macro - sentiment, the fundamental improvement is limited and the upside space may be restricted [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,580 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,671 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,844 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - From October 31 to November 6, 2025/26 US cotton grading inspection was 230,400 tons, with 82.6% of lint meeting ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the macro - sentiment has improved, but the supply pressure is being released and the consumption is weak, so the short - term rebound space of the outer market is limited [2] - Domestically, the expected new cotton output has declined, the seed cotton purchase price has stabilized and rebounded, but the overall new cotton is still expected to increase in production and the demand is insufficient [2] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. In the short - term, there is a possibility of a price correction, while in the long - term, the cotton price can be viewed optimistically after seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,475 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,760 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [4] - The Indian government has allowed 1.5 million tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season and cancelled the 50% export tariff on molasses [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar export is strong and the Indian new - season production is expected to rebound, suppressing market confidence. The global sugar market may be in a bearish cycle in the 25/26 season [5] - Domestically, the new - season sugar production is expected to increase, but the price has fallen to the cost line and the syrup control policy provides short - term support [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Before the Spring Festival, view the sugar price as oscillating. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose and the price may hit new lows [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,525 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,085 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price was rising, with some prices of imported softwood pulp and hardwood pulp increasing by 20 - 100 yuan/ton and 20 - 80 yuan/ton respectively [6] Market Analysis - Supply: The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level, and the domestic pulp import increased again in September with high port inventory [6] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is the core factor suppressing the pulp price. The terminal demand is insufficient and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [6] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. The current pulp price is strong due to macro - sentiment, but the fundamental improvement is limited, and attention should be paid to the demand in the fourth quarter [7]

Report on the Oil and Fat Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with a chance of gradually bottoming out and rebounding. Domestic palm oil futures are in an oscillatory adjustment phase, while soybean oil supply is expected to remain abundant, but crushers' losses support price - holding. [1] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with November 3, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 1 soybean oil increased by 50 yuan to 8420 yuan, with a 0.60% increase; the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 30 yuan to 8570 yuan, with a 0.35% decrease; the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 3 rapeseed oil decreased by 30 yuan to 9770 yuan, with a 0.31% decrease. [1] - **Spread Changes**: The basis of Y2601 soybean oil increased by 52 yuan to 312 yuan, with a 20.00% increase; the basis of P2601 palm oil increased by 18 yuan to - 46 yuan, with a 28.13% increase; the basis of OI601 rapeseed oil decreased by 3 yuan to 327 yuan, with a 0.91% decrease. [1] - **Inventory Outlook**: In Malaysia, the market expects the end - of - month palm oil inventory to reach about 2.44 million tons. In China, the soybean inventory at factories was 7.7 million tons last weekend, at a record high since 2021. [1] Report on the Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The pig price has weakened from a strong level. However, the slowdown in the overall slaughter progress in November may boost the pig price to some extent. The current market is in a weakly oscillatory range, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread position can be held. [4] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the spot price of pigs in Henan decreased by 250 yuan to 11950 yuan/ton; the price of the main contract basis decreased by 200 yuan to 265 yuan/ton, with a 43.01% decrease. [4] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 203 to 158004, with a 0.37% decrease; the weekly price of piglets decreased by 6 yuan to 20 yuan/kg, with a 23.08% decrease. [4] Report on the Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View China is expected to purchase 12 million tons of new - crop US soybeans this year, which provides support for the US soybean market. However, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but due to cost - side support and negative crushing margins, the downward space for domestic soybean meal is limited. [7] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 10 yuan to 3050 yuan, with a 0.33% increase; the spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 10 yuan to 2530 yuan, with a 0.40% increase. [7] - **Spread and Margin Changes**: The basis of M2601 soybean meal increased by 21 yuan to 35 yuan, with a 150.00% increase; the basis of RM2601 rapeseed meal increased by 4 yuan to 33 yuan, with a 13.79% increase. The crushing margin for US Gulf January shipments increased by 26 yuan to - 661 yuan, with a 3.8% increase; the crushing margin for Canadian January shipments decreased by 63 yuan to 596 yuan, with a 9.56% decrease. [7] Report on the Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Currently, the corn market is under selling pressure, and the upward movement of the futures price is restricted, remaining in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, due to low imports, demand resilience, and policy regulation, the corn market will be in a tight - balance situation. [8] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of corn 2601 decreased by 6 yuan to 2135 yuan, with a 0.28% decrease; the price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 9 yuan to 2444 yuan, with a 0.37% decrease. [8] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The morning remaining vehicle count at Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 20 to 648, with a 3.18% increase; the inventory of Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 2385 to 66351, with a 3.73% increase. [8] Report on the Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The expected increase in sugar supply surplus, combined with weakening energy prices and favorable weather in major producing areas, has led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure but is relatively resistant to decline due to cost support and market sentiment. The spot market is sluggish, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. [13] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of sugar 2601 decreased by 18 yuan to 5481 yuan, with a 0.33% decrease; the price of ICE raw sugar futures decreased by 0.47 cents to 14.21 cents/pound, with a 3.20% decrease. [13] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 1.1989 million tons to 11.1621 million tons, with a 12.03% increase; the national cumulative sugar sales increased by 0.88 million tons to 10.48 million tons, with a 9.17% increase. [13] Report on the Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the egg market has an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a stalemate but may gradually rise as demand recovers. The egg price is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300. [16] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 14 yuan to 3144 yuan/500KG, with a 0.44% decrease; the price of the egg 01 - contract decreased by 10 yuan to 3337 yuan/500KG, with a 0.30% decrease. [15] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks increased by 0.15 yuan to 2.8 yuan/feather, with a 5.66% increase; the price of culled hens decreased by 0.18 yuan to 4.11 yuan/jin, with a 4.20% decrease. [15] Report on the Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The cost of new cotton provides strong support for the cotton price, but the price faces hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, but the inventory pressure of finished products is not significant. The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range. [18] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of cotton 2605 decreased by 60 yuan to 13522 yuan, with a 0.44% decrease; the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 65 yuan to 13535 yuan, with a 0.48% decrease. [18] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The commercial cotton inventory increased by 0.6985 million tons to 1.7202 million tons, with a 68.4% increase; the industrial cotton inventory decreased by 0.0362 million tons to 0.8093 million tons, with a 4.3% decrease. [18]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on October 30, 2025, covering various agricultural products including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term support, beware of a second decline [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans rebound, pay attention to the results of China - US negotiations [2] - Soybean meal: Range - bound, waiting for the meeting between Chinese and US leaders [2] - Soybean: Range - bound [2] - Corn: Weakly range - bound [2] - Sugar: Strongly range - bound [2] - Cotton: The rising cost of new cotton supports cotton futures prices [2] - Eggs: Maintain adjustment [2] - Hogs: Spot sentiment declines, waiting for confirmation [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] 3. Summaries by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures closed at 8,842 yuan/ton (down 1.29% during the day) and 8,826 yuan/ton (down 0.18% at night). Soybean oil futures closed at 8,132 yuan/ton (down 0.61% during the day) and 8,146 yuan/ton (up 0.17% at night). The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,750 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan), and that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan) [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Pakistan may increase the import quota of Indonesian palm oil. As of October 23, the estimated net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/26 season is 60 - 160 million tons. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to reach 48.8 million hectares, with an output of 177 million tons [6][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2601 closed at 4,113 yuan/ton (+0.51%) during the day and 4,107 yuan/ton (-0.22%) at night. DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2,969 yuan/ton (+0.03%) during the day and 2,975 yuan/ton (+0.03%) at night [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 29, Chinese state - owned enterprises bought three ships of US soybeans. Traders are watching for more Chinese purchases ahead of the China - US leaders' meeting [17][19]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The price of C2601 was 2,116 yuan/ton (-0.09%) during the day and remained unchanged at night. The trading volume of C2601 was 374,280 lots (down 100,431 lots), and the open interest was 925,389 lots (up 13,061 lots) [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price increased slightly [22]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.42 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,730 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,494 yuan/ton [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, but exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [24]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,620 yuan/ton (+0.41%) during the day and 13,650 yuan/ton (+0.22%) at night. The trading volume of CF2601 was 255,130 lots (up 77,784 lots), and the open interest was 910,968 lots (up 2,065 lots) [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot trading was average, and the ICE cotton futures rose by more than 1% due to optimistic trade prospects [29]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2511 closed at 2,912 yuan/500 kg (up 1.22%), and Egg 2601 closed at 3,368 yuan/500 kg (up 1.91%) [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Not provided Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 12,580 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the futures price of Hog 2601 was 12,160 yuan/ton (down 170 yuan) [34]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Yuexiu and Yangxiang added delivery warehouses, and the national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, up 3.4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year [36] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: PK601 closed at 7,822 yuan/ton (up 0.03%). The trading volume of PK601 was 68,448 lots (up 15,637 lots), and the open interest was 175,747 lots (down 3,551 lots) [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the spot market, the supply in most regions is limited, and prices are stable or slightly stronger [38]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Group 2: Core Views - For the粕类 market, the current domestic fundamentals have little change, with sufficient arrivals, high soybean and bean meal inventories, and overall ample supply. Key factors to watch are the China - US negotiations and the sowing of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] - In the corn market, on the supply side, farmers' selling enthusiasm was initially low due to the decline in northern port corn prices but has slightly recovered this week in the Northeast. In North China, the risk of bad grain has decreased, and the pace of wet grain sales has slowed. On the demand side, various inventories are low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2932 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.43%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2990 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 2900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Latest News**: As of October 24, the soybean planting rate in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season reached 60.05%, up 16.48 percentage points from last week. As of October 19, the weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 12.4 tons, and the cumulative export volume in the 2025/26 season was 107.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.3% [2] Corn and Corn Starch - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2112 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.98%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2425 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.66%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - **Latest News**: As of October 23, Ukraine had harvested 424 hectares of sunflower seeds (82% of the planned area), with a yield of 783.8 tons; 152 hectares of soybeans, with a yield of 350.2 tons; and 127 hectares of rapeseed, with a yield of 331 tons [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic supply of bean meal is relatively loose, and future market trends depend on China - US negotiations and the sowing of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] Corn and Corn Starch - On the supply side, farmers' selling enthusiasm in the Northeast has slightly recovered, and the pace of wet grain sales in North China has slowed. On the demand side, inventory levels are low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] Group 5: Strategy - The strategy for both the粕类 and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Group 6: Figures - The report includes 44 figures related to the prices, production, consumption, inventory, and basis of bean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and corn starch, with data sources from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, short - term cotton prices may weaken again, but in the long - term, they can be viewed optimistically after seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, short - term Zhengzhou sugar may rebound slightly following the foreign market, but in the long - term, it should be treated with a bearish mindset [5] - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to continue its low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,465 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,552 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,679 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - India's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 5.311 million tons, imports 697,000 tons, consumption 5.338 million tons, and exports 306,000 tons, with the ending inventory remaining at 1.03 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, due to the US government shutdown, key data was postponed, increasing market volatility. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, and the short - term external market is under pressure [1] - Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, starting the new year with low inventory. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, limiting the decline of cotton prices [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,428 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.30%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,770 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [3] - In September 2025, China imported 151,400 tons of syrup and sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 135,200 tons [3] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September was higher than expected, suppressing the raw sugar price, but there is support from the ethanol price [5] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the domestic supply is sufficient in the short term, but the new - season production increase may be less than expected, and the downside space is limited [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,156 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact on the overall supply, and domestic port inventories remain high [7] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US and insufficient domestic demand are suppressing pulp prices, and downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is "Cautiously Bearish" [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic bean meal market is mainly oscillating due to the lack of clear data guidance caused by the US government shutdown. The downstream soybean supply in China remains sufficient in the short - term, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The harvest of US soybeans is accelerating, and the sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] - For the corn market, new corn in some northeastern regions of China is starting to be listed. Although the opening price is slightly higher than last year, the overall corn output has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline with the concentrated listing of new - season corn. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation after the listing of new grain, as well as the impact of rainfall on corn quality [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2907 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2364 yuan/ton, a change of + 7 yuan/ton (+ 0.30%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 + 93, a change of + 20 from the previous day; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, the bean meal spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 - 7, a change of + 10 from the previous day; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was RM01 + 216, a change of + 3 from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters expects the soybean export volume in Brazil in October 2025 to be 731 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 712 million tons and a 65% increase compared to 443 million tons in October last year. The expected soybean export volume from January to October is 1.02 billion tons, compared to 934.9 million tons in the same period last year, and the expected annual export volume will reach a record 1.1 billion tons [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The domestic bean meal market lacks clear data guidance due to the US government shutdown and is mainly oscillating. The downstream soybean supply in China is sufficient, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The harvest of US soybeans is accelerating, and the sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2111 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.48%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2376 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton (- 1.04%) from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was C11 + 29, with no change from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS11 + 174, a change of + 25 from the previous day [3] - **Market Information**: On October 15, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics estimated that the total corn planting area in Brazil in 2025 would be 22.163 million hectares, a 3.8% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 0.2% increase from last year's planting area. The total corn output is estimated to be 138.438 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 20.7% increase from last year's output [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - New corn in some northeastern regions of China is starting to be listed. Although the opening price is slightly higher than last year, the overall corn output has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline with the concentrated listing of new - season corn. Rainfall has affected the quality of corn during the harvest period, and attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation after the listing of new grain [4][5] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated October 16, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil: Limited drivers from the origin, continue to hold the reverse spread [2][4] - Soybean oil: Range-bound, pay attention to Sino-US economic and trade relations [2][4] - Soybean meal: Technical trading, oscillating [2] - Soybean: Stronger oscillation [2] - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grain [2] - Sugar: Narrow consolidation [2] - Cotton: Expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term [2] - Eggs: Oscillating [2] - Pigs: The second - fattening logic leads to a downward shift in expectations [2] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 9,322 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.09% and no change at night. Trading volume decreased by 77,751 lots, and positions increased by 2,263 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 9,200 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased by 16.2% compared to the same period last month. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% [5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 8,252 yuan/ton, up 0.15% during the day and down 0.22% at night. Trading volume decreased by 52,905 lots, and positions increased by 3,429 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,590 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Soybean Meal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the DCE soybean meal 2601 contract was 2,917 yuan/ton, up 0.17% during the day and 0.10% at night. The spot price in Shandong was 2,960 - 2,980 yuan/ton, with stable or +10 yuan/ton changes. The trading volume was 110,000 tons, and the inventory was 1.0467 million tons [10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [12] Soybean - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the DCE soybean 2601 contract was 3,999 yuan/ton, up 0.76% during the day and 0.70% at night [10] - **Trend Intensity**: +1 [12] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the C2601 contract was 2,127 yuan/ton, up 1.05% during the day and 0.24% at night. The trading volume decreased by 61,849 lots, and positions increased by 33,636 lots. The spot price in Guangdong Shekou was 2,340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The northern corn bulk shipping port price decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [17] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 15.67 cents/pound, down 0.2 cents. The domestic 24/25 and 25/26 sugar production, consumption, and import volume were estimated. The global 25/26 sugar supply is expected to be in a shortage of 230,000 tons [19][20][21] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [22] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the CF2601 contract was 13,270 yuan/ton, up 0.04% during the day and down 0.08% at night. The spot price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,407 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Cotton spot trading was average, and spinning mills maintained rigid demand procurement [24][25] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 3,204 yuan/500kg, down 0.87%. The spot price in Liaoning was 2.80 yuan/jin, unchanged [29] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [29] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The spot price in Henan was 11,130 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the pig 2601 contract was 12,195 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton. Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan registered 21 lots of warehouse receipts [32][33] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [34] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of Liaoning 308 general goods was 8,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the PK601 contract was 8,062 yuan/ton, up 0.57%. Rainy weather affected the peanut harvest and listing in many producing areas [36][37] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillatory rebound [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillatory [1] - Oil: Upward [1] - Eggs: Oscillatory [1] - Pork: Oscillatory [2] Core Views - Corn prices are expected to rebound after a decline due to the release of the pressure of a bumper harvest and the emergence of farmers' reluctance to sell. Soybean meal is affected by uncertainties in US soybean demand and domestic supply, showing an oscillatory weak trend. Oil has short - term pressure but a long - term positive outlook. Egg futures rebounded from the bottom, while the supply pressure of eggs is large. Pork prices continue to be weak [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, the November corn contract fell and then closed slightly up, breaking through the 2100 - yuan integer mark. The spot price continued to decline, with the domestic average price at 2220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price in the Northeast was weak, and the price in North ports and the marketing areas also declined. Technically, the sharp decline of the November contract released the pressure of a bumper harvest. With the cooling weather in the Northeast, farmers' reluctance to sell increased, and the futures price showed a stable performance at a low level [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to uncertainties in US soybean demand. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase. Domestically, protein meal declined, and soybean meal fell below 2900 yuan/ton. Macro uncertainties, abundant domestic spot supply, and sufficient soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter suppress the market, with an oscillatory weak strategy [1]. - **Oil**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil fell for the third consecutive day. High - frequency data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil increased from October 1 - 10. Domestically, the three major vegetable oils declined. The short - term pressure exists, but the long - term trend is positive, with a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, egg futures rebounded from the bottom, with the main 2511 contract rising 1.57% to 2852 yuan/500 kilograms. The supply of eggs is normal, and the digestion speed in most areas is average. There are no new positive factors in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Pork**: On Tuesday, pork futures closed slightly up in an oscillatory manner. The spot price continued to decline, with the national average price of ternary live pigs at 10.81 yuan/kg. The daily slaughter volume increased, and the futures price was dragged down by the spot price [2]. Market Information - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for November to 4262.23 ringgit per ton (1008.1 US dollars), while keeping the export tariff at 10% [2]. - Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to ensure domestic supply for biodiesel production. The plan to increase to B50 in the second half of 2026 may reduce global edible oil supply [3]. - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's annual grain purchase volume exceeded 400 million tons, with abundant grain reserves and a stable market [3]. - China urges the US to correct wrong practices, show sincerity in negotiations, and promote the healthy development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean meal, oil, eggs, and pork, including 1 - 5 spreads and basis, with data sourced from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [5][6][7][11][13][14][15][17][19][23][25] Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - The team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher in the egg and pork industries. They have rich experience and many honors [27]