原油日报 | 2025-11-28 2026年中国非国营原油进口配额下发 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所1月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨20美分，收于每桶58.86美元，涨幅为0.22%； 1月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨40美分，收于每桶63.53美元，涨幅为0.76%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.46%， 报452元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 加拿大总理马克·卡尼与艾伯塔省共同公布一项综合性能源计划，该计划将为新建输油管道、大型碳捕集项目 及数据中心核能供电建设铺平道路。此项计划同时为艾伯塔省推出核电战略与数据中心战略，承诺显著加强加拿 大西部省份间的电网互联，并保证能源领域在2050年前实现净零排放。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 新加坡企业发展局（ESG）：截至11月26日当周，新加坡燃料油库存上涨19.1万桶达到2470.9万桶的两周高点。 轻馏分油库存下降89.8万桶，至两周低点1352.4万桶。中馏分油库存下降195.4万桶，至18周低点800.7万桶。（来源： Bloomberg） 4、 根据库尔德自治区自然资源部和电力部联合声明，26日晚11时30分， ...

Core Insights - The installation of solar panels in UK households has reached its fastest pace in nearly a decade due to declining technology costs [1] - In October, the UK saw a new solar capacity addition of 82 megawatts, the highest monthly figure since 2015 [1] - The cost of solar equipment is expected to decrease by nearly 20% in the fiscal year 2024-2025 compared to the previous year, encouraging more households to install photovoltaic panels [1] Industry Trends - Approximately one-third of the UK's solar capacity now comes from private residences, indicating a significant shift towards residential solar energy solutions [1] - Despite the UK's leadership in wind energy, solar power is increasingly becoming a crucial pillar for achieving net-zero emissions targets [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: On November 26, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated upwards. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but due to the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the low valuation, after getting support around 115,000, the nickel price is expected to have a weak recovery [1]. - Stainless steel: On November 26, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated upwards. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium narrowed. The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weakening, but with the production - cut disturbance in the 400 - series, the stainless steel is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Nickel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on different trading dates (2025 - 11 - 19, 2025 - 11 - 25, 2025 - 11 - 26) showed certain fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract on November 26 was 117,030 yuan/ton, up 1,090 yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active nickel futures contract on November 26 was 176,566 hands (+60,128), and the open interest was 128,268 hands (- 12,947) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the LME nickel inventory also increased, while the social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained flat [1]. 3.1.2 Stainless - Steel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on different trading dates also fluctuated. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract on November 26 was 12,270 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active stainless - steel futures contract on November 26 was 151,599 hands (+1,313), and the open interest was 131,410 hands (- 15,827) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of the 300 - series last week was 620,400 tons (- 2,800) [1]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased last week, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, with domestic production in November decreasing and Indonesian production increasing. Domestic electrolytic nickel production in November decreased, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [1]. - **Demand**: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production decreased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [1]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - **Supply**: Stainless - steel production in November decreased, and the production of the 300 - series was basically flat [1]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - **Nickel**: Not much information on cost analysis for nickel in the report. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat, indicating that the cost support for stainless steel was weakening [1]. 3.4 Industry News - Indonesian nickel industry emphasizes sustainable development based on green and low - carbon technologies. Indonesian Vale's director pointed out that the sustainable development of the nickel industry must be based on green and low - carbon technologies. The company has implemented multiple de - phosphorus measures, including using hydropower, recycling waste heat, and using carbon monoxide and hydrogen. Indonesian Mining Holding Company (Mind Id) said Indonesia can build a world - class supply chain meeting net - zero emission goals [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to short after a rebound [1].

产业链一体化正成为平抑金属价格波动的重要手段。 近日，锂电赛道再现签约大单。龙蟠科技（603906）日前公告其子公司与楚能新能源子公司签署《<生 产材料采购合作协议>之补充协议二》，将2025年至2030年的磷酸铁锂正极材料供货量从此前约定的15 万吨提升至130万吨，总销售金额预计超过450亿元。 近日，锂盐巨头盛新锂能（002240.SZ）最新公告称，与华友控股集团签署锂盐产品合作框架协议，约 定自2026年至2030年供应22.14万吨锂盐，以当时期货价格计算，协议金额近220亿元。 "金属在能源转型时代至关重要。若要实现净零排放目标，全球能源转型所需金属将达48亿吨。"彭博新 能源财经金属和矿业研究员徐鹏日前表示，预计十年后风电、光伏金属需求将有所下降，电池金属需求 将持续增长，锂、钴、镍、石墨等电池金属以及铜和稀土将是能源转型需求主力。 基于关键金属在时空分布上的错位特点，徐鹏认为这将给中国相关产业带来发展先机。 全球金属资源供需层面地理错配，资源供给集中在澳大利亚、东南亚、非洲、南美洲等区域，主要需求 方中国、欧美等资源相对匮乏；另外，例如锌矿等金属从发现矿山到进行开采往往需要5-10年不等的时 ...

（实习生丁子恩对本文亦有贡献） 高戈锐曾在澳大利亚驻北京、上海使领馆任职，讲得一口流利的普通话。值得一提的是，此行是他第一 次来到广州。"在乘飞机抵达广州时，我就被广州的城市规模和清新空气所震撼。"高戈锐说。他还对广 州完备的基础设施赞叹不已。 高戈锐向记者表示，气候与脱碳是中澳合作中极为关键的领域，两国都制定了碳排放相关目标。澳大利 亚是中国最大的铁矿石供应商，所以他认为，中澳双方联手降低钢铁生产过程中的碳排放具有特别的意 义。 除了绿色合作，高戈锐特别提到中澳的体育合作，他对第十五届全运会印象深刻，"中国在体育领域成 就斐然，我们也一直派遣澳大利亚青年队前往中国开展交流活动。如今网球在中国的热度极高，中澳在 网球项目上开展了众多训练与赛事交流。"他认为，中澳开展体育合作既能提升两国运动员的竞技水 平，还能更好地促进两国关系。 （原标题：澳中基金会CEO：钢铁行业脱碳是中澳绿色合作核心领域之一） 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者 胡慧茵 广州报道 "澳中基金会一直支持赞助中澳两国学者、经济学家等，与政策制定者开展对话，一起实现净零排放的 目标，这是基金会助力中澳在绿色能源领域合作的一个例子。"澳中基金会首席执行 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of transitioning to a resilient zero-carbon energy system, highlighting that relying solely on clean electricity is insufficient for achieving this goal [1][2][3] Group 1: Renewable Energy Transition - The cost of photovoltaic (PV) power generation has decreased by over 90% in the past decade, making it the most economical power source in most regions [1] - The global energy system is facing a "triple dilemma" of ensuring energy security while balancing energy equity and environmental sustainability [2] - Clean energy is projected to become the largest energy source globally by the mid-2030s under net-zero scenarios, with renewable energy growing at an annual rate of 3% [3] Group 2: Technological Foundations - The vision for a sustainable energy future relies on three technological pillars: PV, energy storage, and hydrogen [4] - Energy storage systems are crucial for providing 24/7 renewable energy supply, with global storage capacity expected to reach 1,100 GWh by 2030 [4] - Green hydrogen is seen as a key solution for deep decarbonization in sectors that are hard to electrify, such as industry and heavy transport [4] Group 3: Strategic Principles - The company proposes six guiding principles for achieving the vision of "Renewable Infinity," including innovation, system integration, and open collaboration [5] - The commitment is to lead the transition to a new energy era that emphasizes sustainability and shared benefits for all [5]

大会还发布了《船用燃料生命周期温室气体强度计算方法》和《船舶年度达到的燃料温室气体强度核验 方法》两项团体标准，将为航运企业低碳转型提供统一量化标尺，也为全球碳治理提供"中国方案"。 11月17日，以"破壁迎变.共促可持续发展"为主题的2025世界航商大会在中国香港开幕。会上，由招商 局工业集团控股企业华商能源科技股份有限公司与上下游产业链联合发起的"国际绿色燃料联盟"(IGFA) 举行成立启动仪式，首批30余家全球产业机构正式合力共建航运脱碳生态圈。 据了解，由于不同国家和地区能源结构、技术水平、政策机制与市场成熟度差异等原因，绿色燃料产业 的发展仍面临着标准不统一、体系不互认、市场机制不完善、产消对接不充分等结构性挑战。国际绿色 燃料联盟的成立有望应对这些挑战。 联盟将依托港澳战略枢纽地位，共同攻坚破解绿色燃料产业"标准不互认、产需不对接、金融工具缺 失"三大瓶颈。下一步，联盟计划搭建绿色燃料产业信息交互平台，研究和辅助绿色燃料产业政策制 定，牵引绿色燃料示范项目协同和创新，参与制定绿色燃料行业标准和规则，促进绿色金融与碳市场创 新联动，助力香港成为国际绿色燃料贸易中心。 《全球航运公司净零路径实践指南》 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global chemical industry faces a dilemma in decarbonization, as trade turmoil and a persistently weak market force companies to cut capital expenditures, while achieving 2030 emission reduction targets and moving towards net-zero emissions by 2050 requires substantial investment [1][2]. Group 1: Current State of Decarbonization - The decarbonization process in the chemical industry is significantly lagging, with absolute emissions increasing by 6% from 2019 to 2023, and emission intensity remaining stable at 1.3 million tons of CO2 equivalent [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that emission intensity needs to be reduced to 920,000 tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030, and an 85% reduction in annual emissions is required by 2050, alongside a projected 70% growth in industry size [2]. - PwC forecasts that investments related to decarbonization will need to reach between $1.5 trillion and $3.3 trillion by 2050 [2]. Group 2: Investment Challenges - Despite commitments from major companies like BASF and Dow Chemical to invest over $1 billion annually in sustainability, economic downturns are squeezing the space for decarbonization investments [3]. - The American Chemistry Council (ACC) reports that high interest rates, tariff barriers, and geopolitical risks are causing a slowdown in capital expenditure growth, with projections of a 3.9% increase to $39 billion in 2024, followed by a decrease of 1.6% in 2025 [2][3]. Group 3: Project Delays and Policy Issues - Significant projects, such as Dow Chemical's $6.5 billion "Net Zero Pathway" ethylene plant in Alberta, Canada, have been indefinitely stalled due to industry downturns, rising construction costs, and tariff uncertainties [4]. - The cancellation of $3.7 billion in emission reduction funding by the U.S. Department of Energy has exacerbated the situation, affecting key projects in hydrogen and molecular recycling [4]. - BASF has indicated that core decarbonization technologies, such as electric heating cracking furnaces, will not be scalable until after 2030 [4]. Group 4: Emission Accounting Challenges - The lack of stable policies and difficulties in managing Scope 3 emissions (i.e., emissions from the supply chain) are major institutional barriers to decarbonization [5]. - The SEC's 2024 climate disclosure rules do not include Scope 3 emissions, which account for 75% of total industry emissions, leading to potential investment stagnation of $77.5 billion [5]. - The complexity of the value chain and data inaccuracies hinder effective management of Scope 3 emissions, as demonstrated by the limited impact of reducing emissions from 1,000 core suppliers [5]. Group 5: Market Demand Issues - Insufficient market demand poses a significant barrier to the transition towards decarbonization, with companies like BASF noting a lack of demand for green products [6]. - Dow's CEO has acknowledged that while customers recognize low-carbon products, their willingness to pay a "green premium" is limited, especially in a downturn where cost control is prioritized [6]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Despite optimism among major companies regarding the 2030 targets, data reveals a stark reality: since 2020, the top 12 chemical companies have only reduced direct and indirect carbon emissions by 8.7%, with a mere 2.1% reduction in supply chain emissions [7]. - To resolve the decarbonization dilemma, the industry needs a collaborative effort across policy, technology, and market sectors to create a stable incentive mechanism, accelerate technology maturity, and cultivate green demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy has released its "2024-2025 Longi Green Energy Climate Action White Paper," outlining its strategic ambition to achieve net-zero emissions across the entire value chain by 2050, aligning with international disclosure frameworks [1][2]. Group 1: Scientific Goals and Emission Reduction Pathways - Longi aims to reduce Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 60% and Scope 3 emissions intensity by 52% by 2030, compared to 2020 levels [2]. - The company has established a detailed reduction pathway consisting of five pillars: operational decarbonization, value chain collaboration, product carbon footprint management, climate solution development, and just transition promotion [2]. - In 2024, Longi's total operational carbon emissions are projected to be 3,184,782 tons of CO2 equivalent, reflecting a 23.8% increase from 2020 but a 37% decrease from the peak in 2023 [2]. Group 2: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Usage - Longi implemented 477 energy-saving projects in 2024, expected to save 426 million kWh of electricity, equivalent to a reduction of 250,000 tons of CO2 [3]. - The company achieved a 10.7% year-on-year decrease in overall electricity consumption per unit, with significant reductions across various manufacturing stages [3]. - In 2024, Longi utilized 4.746 billion kWh of renewable electricity, accounting for 47.5% of total electricity consumption, an increase of 5.7 percentage points from 2020 [3]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Product Carbon Footprint - Scope 3 emissions represent nearly 90% of Longi's total value chain emissions, making it a critical area for achieving net-zero goals [4]. - In 2024, Longi's Scope 3 emissions totaled 2,734,000 tons of CO2 equivalent, with purchased goods and services accounting for 84% of this figure [4]. - Longi launched a "Green Supply Chain Empowerment Program" to encourage 50 suppliers to conduct carbon audits [4]. Group 4: Technological Advancements and Diverse Applications - Longi's monocrystalline silicon cell efficiency reached 27.81%, and the efficiency of the perovskite-silicon tandem cell reached 35%, both setting new world records [4]. - The company is diversifying its applications through BIPV, photovoltaic + agriculture, and photovoltaic + hydrogen projects, demonstrating adaptability in extreme climate conditions [4]. Group 5: Governance and Financial Planning - Longi has established a governance structure centered around its board and sustainability committee, linking climate performance to management compensation [5]. - The company has integrated its climate strategy into its budgeting system and conducted its first ESG dual materiality assessment in 2024, identifying "climate change response" and "energy management" as core financial issues [5]. Group 6: Global Collaboration and Commitment - Longi emphasizes the need for global collaboration in addressing climate change, advocating for open innovation, energy equity, and enhanced global cooperation [6]. - The company is transitioning from a photovoltaic product supplier to a builder and advocate of a zero-carbon energy ecosystem, showcasing its commitment to sustainable development [7].

Kieran Brophy LSEG 主权气候研究负责人 LSEG第五版《净零排放地图 集》（《 Net Zero Atlas》） 为投 资者提供了大量关于G20国家所面临 的转型风险和物理风险的数据与洞察。 我们转型风险分析的关键发现 我们对气候物理风险分析的关键发现 Jaakko Kooroshy LSEG 全球可持续投资研究主管 Alan Meng LSEG 可持续固定收益 研究主管 Edmund Bourne LSEG SI 研究主管 95%的国家未能在联合国规定的2月截止日期前提交新的国家自主贡献（NDCs 3.0）。然而，主要排 放国的最新宣布意味着已有15个二十国集团（G20）经济体——覆盖了G20排放量的71%——设定了 2035年目标。 伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）的分析显示，这些2035年目标显著加快了2030年之后的减排步伐：有 目标的G20国家在2030至2035年间的年度减排率提升至-2.6%至-3.5%（相比之下，在NDCs 2.0框架 下，2023至2030年间仅为-0.5%至-0.7%），这意味着在2030目标基础上额外实现五年间13%至18% 的减排。 对于企业和投资者而言 ...