1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of asphalt is weak in the short - term. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - The asphalt start - up rate last week decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [3][20] - In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year [3] - This week, refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Lanqiao Petrochemical resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt start - up rate increased slightly from a low level [3] 3.2 Demand - As of the week of February 6, approaching the Spring Festival, the start - up rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The start - up rate of road asphalt decreased by 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week [3][29] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025, but it was still negative. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transport from January to December was - 6.0%, a further decline from - 4.7% from January to November. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 was - 2.2%, a further decline from - 1.1% from January to November [29] - After the price increase in Shandong last week, the terminal demand was weak, and the shipment volume decreased significantly. The national shipment volume decreased by 1.33% to 211,600 tons week - on - week, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3][25] 3.3 Inventory - As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% compared with the week of January 30, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [34] 3.4 Price - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,240 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [16] 3.5 Impact of Raw Materials - The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic local refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and cost. Large trader Vitol China quotes Venezuelan crude oil at a discount of $5/barrel, much smaller than the $13/barrel discount in December 2025. Indian Oil executives said that Venezuelan oil is quoted at a discount of $4 - 5/barrel compared with Dubai crude oil. The possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, but it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. Attention should be paid to the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries [3] - It is expected that domestic refineries still have raw material inventory available before March. The geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile. The US has reduced the tariffs imposed on India. Indian refineries may increase the procurement of crude oil from the Middle East and the Americas, and the crude oil price has rebounded slightly [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to focus on the situation in Venezuela and adopt a reverse spread strategy. The supply and demand of asphalt are affected by factors such as refinery production adjustment, downstream construction, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Next week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical will switch to asphalt production, while Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical plan to stop production, keeping the asphalt operating rate low [1]. - **Demand Side**: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. A new round of rain and snow is coming, with northern road construction gradually ending and southern projects also entering the final stage, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down [1]. - **Inventory**: The asphalt refinery inventory rate continued to rise week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - **Geopolitical Impact**: The US military action in Venezuela may affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. It is necessary to pay attention to the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 1.48% to 3,130 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,123 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,154 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 5,652 to 193,865 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The mainstream market price in Shandong region dropped to 3,090 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 40 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [4]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply - Side Fundamentals**: Refineries such as Liaoning Zhende resumed production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points month - on - month compared with January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 4.7%, a slight decline from - 4.3% in January - October 2025. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was - 1.1%, a further decline from - 0.1% in January - October 2025. As of the week of January 16, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined, and the road asphalt operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared with January - November, and the recovery of enterprises' medium - and long - term financing demand was still weak [5]. - **Inventory Fundamentals**: As of the week of January 16, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of January 9, and was near the lowest level in recent years [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Views Methanol - Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonant rebound in ports and the inland. The basis has strengthened slightly, unloading is slow, and port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks. However, there are many floating storage tanks, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons. It is difficult to expect a decline in imports from December to January. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports. It is believed that the end - point of the 01 contract will still be high inventory, and it is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [1] Polyethylene (PE) - For polyethylene, the inventory of the top two oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The top two oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises have reduced their inventories, and social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around -200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [3] Polypropylene (PP) - For polypropylene, the top two oil companies and mid - stream enterprises have reduced their inventories. In terms of valuation, the basis is -60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around -700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around -400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the start - up rate of powder plants is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [3] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The basis of the 01 contract remains at -270, and the factory - pickup basis is -480. Downstream start - up rates are seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production level in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC plant maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is -100. Currently, the contradiction of static inventory is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [3] 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 18 to December 24, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price changed from 2168 to 2172, the South China spot price from 2120 to 2135, the Lunan converted - to - futures price from 2440 to 2395, the Southwest converted - to - futures price remained at 2485, the Hebei converted - to - futures price remained at 2385, the Northwest converted - to - futures price from 2525 to 2470, the CFR China price from 251 to an unspecified value, the CFR Southeast Asia price from 318 to an unspecified value, and the import profit and other values also had corresponding changes [1] Polyethylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From December 18 to December 24, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 745 (except for December 24 with no data). The North China LL price changed from 6390 to 6250, the East China LL price from 6725 to 6500, the East China LD price from 8125 to 7975, the East China HD price remained at 6850, the LL US dollar price remained at 763, the LL US Gulf price remained at 786, the import profit,主力期货 price, basis, two - oil inventory, and warehouse receipts also had corresponding changes. The overall inventory is neutral, and the 09 contract basis is different in different regions. The import profit is around -200, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently [3] Polypropylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From December 18 to December 24, 2025, the Shandong propylene price changed from 5930 to 5700, the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 710, the East China PP price from 6210 to 6110, the North China PP price from 6073 to 6008, the Shandong powder price from 6020 to 6000, the East China copolymer PP price from 6426 to 6302, the PP US dollar price from 755 to an unspecified value, the PP US Gulf price remained at 800, the export profit,主力期货 price, basis, two - oil inventory, and warehouse receipts also had corresponding changes. The upstream and mid - stream inventories have decreased, the basis is -60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around -700. Exports have been good, and the subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly [3] Polyvinyl Chloride - **Price and Profit Data**: From December 18 to December 24, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2300 (from December 23), the Shandong caustic soda price remained at 732, the calcium carbide method - East China price from 4470 to 4520, the import US dollar price (CFR China) remained at 640 (except for December 24 with no data), the export profit, Northwest comprehensive profit, North China comprehensive profit, and basis also had corresponding changes. The basis remains stable, downstream start - up rates are weakening seasonally, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, and attention should be paid to multiple factors such as exports and coal prices [3]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas. The basis has strengthened slightly, and unloading is slow. Ports have been destocking for two consecutive weeks with many floating storage. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. November Iranian shipments were 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult for imports to decline from December to January. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the end - state of the 01 contract will still be high inventory. It is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [2]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are oscillating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is flat month - on - month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is high, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is oscillating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face a moderately excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - For PVC, the basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of the middle and upstream are continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest plants has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is good, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [6]. 2. Data Summary Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/17 | 801 | 2130 | 2095 | 2440 | 2485 | 2385 | 2550 | 249 | 318 | - 5 | 25 | - | | 2025/12/18 | 801 | 2168 | 2120 | 2440 | 2485 | 2385 | 2525 | 251 | 318 | 0 | 20 | - | | 2025/12/19 | 801 | 2157 | 2115 | 2435 | 2485 | 2385 | 2508 | 249 | 320 | 1 | 20 | - | | 2025/12/22 | 801 | 2142 | 2115 | 2430 | 2485 | 2385 | 2500 | 248 | 320 | 11 | 20 | - | | 2025/12/23 | 801 | 2137 | 2115 | 2420 | 2485 | 2355 | 2505 | - | - | - | 20 | - | |日度变化|0|-5|0|-10|0|-30|5|-|-|-|0|-| [2] Polyethylene | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/17 | 745 | 6400 | 6750 | 8250 | 6900 | 763 | 786 | 166 | 6479 | - 40 | 70 | 11332 | | 2025/12/18 | 745 | 6390 | 6725 | 8125 | 6850 | 763 | 786 | 144 | 6476 | - 40 | 67 | 11332 | | 2025/12/19 | 745 | 6230 | 6600 | 8100 | 6850 | 763 | 786 | 19 | 6320 | - 60 | 66 | 11332 | | 2025/12/22 | 745 | 6150 | 6575 | 8075 | 6850 | - | 786 | - | 6240 | - 50 | - | 11298 | | 2025/12/23 | - | - | 6525 | 7975 | 6850 | - | - | - | 6296 | - 50 | - | 11265 | |日度变化|-|-|-50|-100|0|-|-|-|56|0|-|-33| [6] Polypropylene | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/17 | 6000 | 715 | 6150 | 6078 | 6020 | 6422 | 755 | 800 | 1 | 6254 | - 80 | 70 | 10730 | | 2025/12/18 | 5930 | 710 | 6210 | 6073 | 6020 | 6426 | 755 | 800 | 2 | 6279 | - 80 | 67 | 10534 | | 2025/12/19 | 5890 | 710 | 6150 | 6058 | 6020 | 6414 | 755 | 800 | 4 | 6213 | - 80 | 66 | 10934 | | 2025/12/22 | 5870 | 710 | 6085 | 6050 | 6000 | 6394 | 745 | 800 | 4 | 6119 | - 80 | - | 10892 | | 2025/12/23 | 5780 | 710 | 6070 | 6028 | 5980 | 6362 | - | - | - | 6158 | - 80 | - | 10772 | |日度变化|-90|0|-15|-22|-20|-32|-|-|-|39|0|-|-120| [6] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/17 | 2450 | 722 | 4460 | - | - | 4100 | 640 | 267 | - | - | - 20 | | 2025/12/18 | 2400 | 722 | 4470 | - | - | 4100 | 640 | 264 | - | - | - 20 | | 2025/12/19 | 2400 | 732 | 4460 | - | - | 4100 | 640 | 264 | - | - | - 20 | | 2025/12/22 | 2350 | 732 | 4400 | - | - | 4100 | 640 | - | - | - | - 20 | | 2025/12/23 | 2300 | 732 | 4480 | - | - | 4100 | - | - | - | - | - 20 | |日度变化|-50|0|80|-|-|0|-|-|-|-|0| [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper prices continues. The sharp increase in LME cancelled warehouse receipts has triggered a new round of copper price hikes. It is recommended to continue holding previous long positions. For new positions, pay attention to capital changes and be wary of short - term pullbacks. Overall, adopt a strategy of buying on dips [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Macro - aspect**: The Bank of Japan Governor strongly hinted at an interest rate hike in December, aiming to raise the rate to 0.75%, leading to a double - kill in Japanese stocks and bonds. Trump hinted that the candidate for the Fed Chair is Hassett. The US ADP employment data in November decreased by 32,000, strengthening the narrative of a further weakening labor market and basically confirming a rate cut in December [4]. - **Copper Production**: In November, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month, a month - on - month increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%. SMM expects a month - on - month increase of 65,700 tons in December [5]. - **Consumption**: Domestically, the demand is weakening marginally. Real estate continues to drag down the market, and the production schedules of photovoltaic and air - conditioning sectors have declined significantly. The main support for the market in the later stage comes from orders from the two power grids, the automotive industry, and energy - storage batteries. Downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and consumption weakens significantly after the price breaks through 90,000 yuan/ton. However, near the end of the year, some traders increase their procurement to meet annual targets or expect a larger price difference, keeping the spot premium firm [6]. - **Inventory and Spread**: In the long run, non - US supply is generally tight. Consider inter - period positive spreads (buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts) after the inventory declines later. The negotiation of long - term import contracts for refined copper in China is not going smoothly. If the long - term import volume decreases significantly, the supply situation in China may intensify, and the ratio may rebound. However, due to tight supply in non - US regions, the ratio may fluctuate sharply between the opening of the import window and the opening of the export window. Considering the short - term accumulation of LME short - squeeze risks, reverse spreads carry high risks, so cautious operation is recommended [8]. 3.2 Internal and External Price Trends No specific content in the provided text for in - depth summary. 3.3 Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking - **Copper Concentrate**: CSPT recently reached a consensus to reduce the production capacity of copper concentrate by over 10% in 2026. On December 5th, the SMM imported copper concentrate index was reported at - 42.86 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 0.11 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The port inventory increased to 750,200 physical tons, an increase of 27,100 physical tons from the previous period. China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates in October were 2451,500 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to October were 25.1347 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.42% [7][25][30]. - **Scrap Copper**: As of December 5th, the refined - scrap copper price difference was 5511 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rods decreased by 9.14 percentage points week - on - week to 9.15%, a year - on - year decrease of 19.88 percentage points. From January to September 2025, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 902,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.18%. In October, China imported 196,600 tons of scrap copper, a year - on - year increase of 7.35%, and the cumulative imports from January to October were 1.8955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.11% [38][42]. - **Blister Copper**: On December 5th, the average processing fee for blister copper in southern China was 1300 yuan/ton, the same as last week. In July 2025, the blister copper production was 1.0585 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 6.9996 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.76%. In October 2025, China imported 55,200 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month increase of 10.18%, and the cumulative imports from January to October were 634,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.01% [44]. - **Domestic Copper Supply**: From January to November 2025, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China increased by 1.2894 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.76%. SMM expects a month - on - month increase of 65,700 tons in December. From January to October 2025, China imported 2.8237 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6.14%, and exported 554,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 29.89% [50][53]. - **Copper Products Operating Rate**: On December 4th, the operating rate of copper rods decreased by 2.78 percentage points week - on - week to 66.41%, far lower than 81.94% in the same period last year. The operating rate of recycled copper rods declined again after a rebound. The weekly operating rate of wire and cable increased to 95.12%. In November, the operating rates of copper strip, copper foil, copper tube, and brass rod enterprises were 68.39%, 86.3%, 63.82%, and 50.18% respectively, with different month - on - month and year - on - year changes [55][59][64]. - **Downstream Consumption**: - **Air - conditioning**: In October 2025, the production and sales of domestic air - conditioners decreased year - on - year. The production and sales in December are expected to decline significantly compared to the same period last year, with the domestic sales plan decreasing by 29.9% year - on - year and the export plan decreasing by 11.4% year - on - year [74]. - **Automobile**: In October, the production and sales of automobiles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 33.1% and 32.7% respectively year - on - year, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 46.7% of the total sales of new vehicles [78]. - **Power Grid Investment**: From January to October 2025, China's power grid investment reached 482.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, with the growth rate continuing to decline compared to the 9.9% growth rate from January to September [81]. - **Real Estate**: From January to October 2025, the national commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 16.9% year - on - year [86]. - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: From January to October 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 252.87GW, a year - on - year increase of 39.47%. The new wind power installed capacity from January to October 2025 was 70.01GW, a year - on - year increase of 52.86% [92]. - **Global New Energy Vehicles**: In October 2025, global new energy vehicle sales were 1.9117 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to October 2025, US new energy vehicle sales were 1.3846 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.53% [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★☆ [1] - Urea: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure from demand, with different products facing various supply - demand situations. Positive and negative factors coexist, and investors need to pay attention to specific product trends and relevant influencing factors [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summaries by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had narrow intraday fluctuations. The demand is weak, but the maintenance of Binzhou PDH device may support price stabilization [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures declined. The supply of polyethylene increased due to reduced maintenance and new production, while demand weakened. Polypropylene faced supply pressure from new capacity and reduced maintenance, and demand was limited by low profit [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated around 5,500 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased, and there are medium - term negatives. The strategy is mainly month - spread reverse arbitrage [3] - Styrene futures were weak. The cost support was insufficient, and the high inventory pressure continued [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated. Supply increased, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation. The strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly, but inventory increased. The supply pressure is high, and the strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Short fiber had a good spot pattern but may face inventory accumulation in mid - to late November. Bottle chip demand weakened, and the cost was the main driver [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell sharply. High inventory and weak demand persisted, waiting for supply reduction and demand improvement [6] - Urea prices oscillated narrowly. Downstream demand increased, and inventory decreased, but the market may continue to oscillate at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC was at a low level due to weak cost support, high supply, and weak demand [7] - Caustic soda prices were slightly stronger, but high inventory and weak demand may keep prices low. Attention should be paid to liquid chlorine prices [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices declined due to increased supply and reduced demand. Consider the strategy of long glass and short soda ash [8] - Glass prices rose. Inventory is expected to decrease, but cost increase and insufficient orders may limit the rise [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The live hog market maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The market is under pressure in the short term, with the September contract expected to be weak, while the macro sentiment provides strong support for the long - term. The spread structure has switched to a reverse spread, and investors should pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 14,130 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan/ton year - on - year), Sichuan spot price is 13,600 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year), and Guangdong spot price is 15,540 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year). For futures, the price of Live Hog 2509 is 13,940 yuan/ton (down 115 yuan/ton year - on - year), Live Hog 2511 is 13,905 yuan/ton (up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year), and Live Hog 2601 is 14,185 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton year - on - year) [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Live Hog 2509 is 23,128 lots (down 8,228 lots from the previous day), with an open interest of 38,250 lots (down 2,721 lots from the previous day); Live Hog 2511 has a trading volume of 18,703 lots (down 5,958 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 52,319 lots (up 1,115 lots from the previous day); Live Hog 2601 has a trading volume of 11,229 lots (down 2,530 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 40,508 lots (up 113 lots from the previous day) [3]. - **Spreads**: The basis of Live Hog 2509 is 190 yuan/ton (down 185 yuan/ton year - on - year), Live Hog 2511 is 225 yuan/ton (down 355 yuan/ton year - on - year), and Live Hog 2601 is - 55 yuan/ton (down 305 yuan/ton year - on - year). The spread between Live Hog 9 - 11 is 35 yuan/ton (down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the spread between Live Hog 11 - 1 is - 280 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year) [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume - reduction and price - pulling efforts were less than expected. Retailers and second - fattening groups are panicked. The group's planned slaughter volume in August is increasing, while demand growth is limited, putting pressure on the market. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and the futures price is significantly higher than the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to be weak. The macro sentiment strongly supports the long - term, resulting in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For copper, the inventory drawdown slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The upward momentum of the monthly spread requires substantial shortages or a decline in the absolute price. [1] - For aluminum, the supply-demand gap remains in May, and the inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price may rebound with the inventory drawdown. The monthly spread long position can be held if the absolute price drops. [2] - For zinc, the price fluctuated widely this week. The inventory accumulation acceleration inflection point is expected to occur at the end of May or early June. It is recommended to short at high prices and continue to hold the long position in the domestic and foreign price spread. [5] - For nickel, the short-term fundamental situation is average, but supported by tariff and mine disturbances, opportunities for the contraction of the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored. [6] - For stainless steel, the short-term is a mix of long and short factors, and the reverse spread position can be rolled over and continued to be held. [8] - For lead, the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May. [9][10] - For tin, the short-term is recommended to wait and see, and the medium- and long-term should focus on shorting opportunities. [12] - For industrial silicon, the short-term shows a pattern of double reduction in supply and demand, and the medium- and long-term price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. [14] - For lithium carbonate, the short-term downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium and long term. [16] Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai copper spot premium decreased by 140, the waste refined copper spread decreased by 263, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 9,464. [1] - **Market Situation**: The domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week, with high selling pressure. The demand shows strong reality and weak expectations, and the inventory drawdown slope may slow down. [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 50, the domestic alumina price increased by 52, and the SHFE social inventory remained unchanged. [1] - **Market Situation**: The supply increased slightly in 1 - 3 months, and the demand decline in May was not obvious. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July, and the aluminum price may rebound. [2] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 110, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,650. [5] - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated widely this week. The supply side had a slight decrease in smelting maintenance in May, and the demand side had general domestic demand and a slight recovery in overseas demand. The inventory accumulation acceleration inflection point is expected to occur at the end of May or early June. [5] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100, the spot import return decreased by 489.12, and the LME inventory decreased by 876. [6] - **Market Situation**: The pure nickel production remained at a high level, the demand was weak, and the overseas nickel beans had a slight inventory drawdown. The short-term fundamental situation is average, but supported by tariff and mine disturbances. [6] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the price of 304 cold-rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [6] - **Market Situation**: The production may decrease passively in May, the demand is mainly rigid, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly. The short-term is a mix of long and short factors. [6][8] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the spot premium decreased by 5, the LME inventory increased by 13,700, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 4,125. [8] - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated upward this week. The supply side had tight raw materials and concentrated capacity release in the middle reaches, and the demand side had weak overall demand. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,000 next week. [9][10] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the spot import return increased by 2,110.12, the spot export return decreased by 1,586.48, and the LME inventory decreased by 5. [12] - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply side had mine supply disturbances, and the demand side had limited elasticity. The short-term is recommended to wait and see, and the medium- and long-term should focus on shorting opportunities. [12] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the 553 East China basis decreased by 65, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 355. [14] - **Market Situation**: The northern large factories maintained production cuts this week, and the downstream demand continued to weaken. The short-term shows a pattern of double reduction in supply and demand, and the medium- and long-term price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, the SMM industrial carbon price remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 530. [16] - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated downward this week. The overall production increased, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The short-term downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium and long term. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For copper, the inventory drawdown slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. For the monthly spread, the subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1]. - For aluminum, with the positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations and the alleviation of global trade tensions, the aluminum price rebounds with inventory drawdown. The monthly spread long - short arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops [2]. - For zinc, attention should be paid to the inflection point from inventory drawdown to accumulation. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage can be continued [5]. - For nickel, opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, in the short term, with long and short factors intertwined, the reverse arbitrage can be rolled over and held [7]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May [8]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term [9]. - For industrial silicon, in the medium - long term, the price trend is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises [11]. - For lithium carbonate, in the medium - long cycle, if the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not significantly decline, the price will still oscillate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the spot premium decreased by 125, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 221, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,925 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week. The smelting plants were eager to sell under high monthly spreads, and downstream orders slowed down. The demand has strong current reality but weak future expectations [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 100, and the domestic alumina price increased by 42 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the demand in May did not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be drawn down gently from May to July [2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,150 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and the import TC increased slightly. The demand at home has general elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear at the end of May or early June [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the沪镍现货 price decreased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 312 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remained at a high level, and the overall demand was weak. The overseas nickel beans inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic inventory remained stable [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the lead spot premium increased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 36,375 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has tight raw materials, and the demand side has limited overall demand. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,000 next week [8]. Tin - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the spot import gain increased by 5,126.89, and the LME inventory increased by 15 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some alleviation of long - term ore shortages, but there are still domestic supply disturbances. The demand side has limited elasticity, and the downstream lacks consumption power [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the 553 East China basis decreased by 55, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 596 [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, there is a pattern of double - reduction in supply and demand. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 200, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 152 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production increased this week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. In the medium - long term, the price may oscillate weakly [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the pig industry is weak, and there may be a phased inventory reduction. The current situation shows that the price spreads between fat pigs in the north and south are inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales initially confirms inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the inventory, and the market expectation has weakened. There is a possibility of phased weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. Wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - and long - term, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The Henan spot price is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,250 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton year - on - year. The futures prices of pig2507, pig2509, and pig2511 are 13,285 yuan/ton, 13,650 yuan/ton, and 13,335 yuan/ton respectively, down 70 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig2507 is 5,518 lots, an increase of 92 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,386 lots, an increase of 356 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig2509 is 15,772 lots, an increase of 1,459 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 78,562 lots, a decrease of 118 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig2511 is 2,948 lots, a decrease of 228 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 32,576 lots, an increase of 397 lots from the previous day [1] - **Price Spread**: The basis of pig2507, pig2509, and pig2511 are 1,315 yuan/ton, 950 yuan/ton, and 1,265 yuan/ton respectively, down 80 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 125 yuan/ton year - on - year. The 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 365 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the 9 - 11 spread is 315 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with classifications including weak, weak - biased, neutral, strong - biased, and strong [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The current situation shows that the price spreads between fat pigs in the north and south are inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales initially confirms inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the inventory, and the market expectation has weakened. There is a possibility of phased weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. Wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - and long - term, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]