本周，创业板中盘200指数上涨8.3%，创业板指数、创业板成长指数均上涨3.9%。Wind数据显示，截至1月8日，创业板 ETF易方达（159915）近5个交易日合计净流入超8亿元。 创业板中盘200指数 s 由创业板中市值中等、流动性较好的200只股票组 成,反映创业板市场中盘代表性公司的整体表现, 信息技术行业占比超40% 中金公司认为，展望2026年，A股"9.24"以来的震荡上行行情仍有望延续，国际货币秩序重构逻辑进一步强化、AI进入应用 关键期、我国创新产业迎来业绩兑现等趋势，将继续支持中国资产表现。 | | 创业板 | 创业板中盘 | 创业板成长 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指数 | 200指数 | 指数 | | 本周涨跌幅 | 3.9% | 8. 3% | 3.9% | | 指数滚动 | 42. 2倍 | 110.9倍 | 41.2倍 | | 市盘率 | | | | | 滚动市盈率 分位 | 39. 1% | 该指数2023年 11月15日发布 | 47. 3% | | 跟踪该 指数的ETF | 创业板ETF 易方达 | 创业板200ETF 易方达 | 创业板 ...

A股市场2026年首个交易日三大指数全线飘红，至下午收盘，上证指数报4023.42点，上涨1.38%； 深证 成指报13828.63点，大涨2.24%；创业板指报3294.55点，大涨2.85%。沪深京三市成交额25672亿元，较 上日放量5015亿元，三市超4100只个股上涨。 新年股市开门红！ 板块题材上，脑机接口、创新药、保险、存储芯片、AI应用、军工装备、有色金属板块涨幅居前；海 南自贸区、旅游及酒店、猪肉、钢铁、银行、汽车整车板块走弱。 2026年A股市场如何运行？ 券商普遍对2026年A股行情保持乐观，预计A股市场牛市有望持续。 中信建投（601066）证券策略分析师夏凡捷指出，A股市场牛市有望持续，本轮牛市以政策转向为起 点，以流动性改善为核心，2026年这些支持牛市的核心逻辑预计仍将延续甚至强化。当前市场已经进入 牛市中期，权益资产性价比已经有所下降，预计指数依然震荡上行但涨幅放缓。 中信建投证券策略分析师夏凡捷认为，投资者应警惕科技板块阶段性回调风险，资源品很可能成为A股 在科技主线后一条新的主线方向。建议投资者重点关注新能源、有色金属、基础化工、石油石化、非 银、军工、机械设备、计算机等行 ...

展望2026年，中信证券认为，虽然2025年末沪指走出11连阳，但市场整体的"躁动"仍然非常克制。大部 分前期兑现收益的资金目前还在等待入场时机，这也意味着在没有重大超预期风险的情况下，市场难有 明显的调整。站在开年时点，人心思涨的环境下市场震荡向上的概率更高。 中期维度下，中信证券建议投资者以"赚业绩的钱而不期待估值的钱"的思维布局。"A股不仅是中国的A 股，也是全球的A股。"中信证券首席A股策略分析师裘翔此前在2026年资本市场年会上表示。他认为， A股公司正陆续从本国敞口的本土化企业转型为全球敞口的跨国公司，中国资本市场也正从新兴市场逐 步转型为成熟市场。"十五五"期间，中国企业在全球价值链分配中的位置有望进一步抬升，把份额优势 转化为定价权，这是A股行情持续走强的基础。 中金公司策略团队则将2026年A股定义为"乘势笃行"：国际货币秩序重构逻辑进一步强化，AI革命进入 应用关键期，我国创新产业迎来业绩兑现，上述趋势将继续支持中国资产表现。与此同时，经历一定估 值修复后，2026年A股基本面重要性将继续提升，全球资金和国内居民资金动向也是不可忽视的因素。 1月5日，A股迎来2026年首个交易日。 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to outperform the Hong Kong stock market in the medium term, driven by factors such as liquidity advantages, international monetary order restructuring, and the revaluation of RMB assets [1][6]. Market Performance - From August 18 to December 12, the A-share market showed strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.2%, the CSI 300 by 9.0%, and the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 increasing by 26.0% and 22.5% respectively. In contrast, the Hong Kong market saw the Hang Seng Index rise by 2.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 1.7% [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - The A-share market benefits from high-growth sectors such as hard technology and new energy, which are expected to see improved performance in the second half of the year. The hardware sector, particularly semiconductors and electronics, is a strong point for A-shares, while Hong Kong's strengths lie in large internet companies [3][4]. Liquidity Factors - The A-share market is experiencing increased liquidity due to active participation from individual investors, with margin trading balances rising from 2.1 trillion yuan in mid-August to 2.5 trillion yuan by mid-December. Additionally, the trend of "deposit migration" and the activation of bank wealth management products are contributing to this liquidity [4][5]. Overseas Influences - The Hong Kong market is more susceptible to overseas factors, including international liquidity and trade policies. Recent fluctuations in U.S. monetary policy and trade relations have had a more pronounced impact on Hong Kong compared to A-shares, which have shown greater resilience [5][6]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the A-share market is expected to maintain its relative advantages, particularly as AI technology begins to see industrial application in 2024. Key areas of focus include computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing, with a continued emphasis on domestic production [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to outperform the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of 2025 due to factors such as increased incremental capital, restructuring of international monetary order, and favorable policies that benefit A-share sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - From August 18 to December 12, the A-share market showed a significant performance advantage, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.2%, the CSI 300 by 9.0%, and the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 by 26.0% and 22.5% respectively, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index only increased by 2.8% and 1.7% [2]. - The leading sectors in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were similar, with notable gains in non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, and electrical equipment [2]. Group 2: Fundamental Factors - A-share advantages stem from high growth in sectors like hard technology and new energy, with A-shares benefiting more from the domestic economic recovery compared to Hong Kong stocks [3]. - The A-share market has a stronger focus on hardware sectors such as semiconductors and electronics, while Hong Kong stocks are more represented by large internet companies [3]. Group 3: Liquidity Factors - The A-share market has seen increased liquidity due to active participation from individual investors, with margin trading balances rising from 2.1 trillion yuan in mid-August to 2.5 trillion yuan by mid-December [4]. - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, with non-bank deposits maintaining high growth rates, contributing to the liquidity in the A-share market [4]. Group 4: Overseas Factors - The Hong Kong market is more sensitive to overseas factors, including international liquidity and trade policies, which have led to greater volatility compared to A-shares [5]. - Recent fluctuations in U.S. monetary policy and trade tensions have had a more pronounced negative impact on the Hong Kong market, while A-shares demonstrated resilience during these periods [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain its advantages in the medium term, particularly in hardware sectors related to AI and cloud computing, as these areas are projected to see increased industrial application [6]. - Continued liquidity support from long-term capital inflows and favorable policies is anticipated to sustain A-share market activity [6]. - The restructuring of international monetary order and the potential for improved U.S.-China trade relations may further enhance the attractiveness of A-shares compared to Hong Kong stocks [6].

Core Insights - The report indicates that A-shares are expected to outperform Hong Kong stocks in the second half of 2025, driven by factors such as increased domestic capital inflow, restructuring of international monetary order, and favorable policies for certain sectors [1][2]. Market Performance - From August 18 to December 12, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.2%, and the CSI 300 increased by 9.0%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index only gained 2.8% during the same period [1]. - The growth of the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 was significant, with increases of 26.0% and 22.5% respectively, highlighting the strong performance of growth-oriented stocks in A-shares [1]. Reasons for A-share Outperformance - **Fundamentals**: A-shares have advantages in high-growth sectors such as hard technology and new energy, which are expected to see improved performance in the second half of the year. The report notes that A-shares are more focused on hardware sectors like semiconductors and electronics, while Hong Kong stocks are more represented by large internet companies [2]. - **Liquidity**: The report highlights that the active participation of individual investors and the inflow of medium to long-term funds have provided A-shares with additional liquidity. The margin trading balance increased from 2.1 trillion yuan in mid-August to 2.5 trillion yuan by mid-December [2][4]. - **Overseas Factors**: A-shares are less affected by overseas liquidity and trade policy risks compared to Hong Kong stocks, which have a higher proportion of foreign investment. The report notes that recent fluctuations in U.S. monetary policy and trade relations have had a more pronounced impact on Hong Kong stocks [2][3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that A-shares will continue to maintain their relative advantages in the medium term, particularly as AI technology begins to see more widespread industrial application. Key areas of focus include computing power, cloud computing, and domestic production [4]. - The liquidity in the A-share market is expected to remain active, with the potential for further inflows from bank wealth management products and institutional investors [4]. - The restructuring of the international monetary order and the revaluation of Chinese assets are expected to further support the performance of A-shares compared to Hong Kong stocks [4].

中金研究 2024年9月以来A股震荡上行已超一年，防范市场波动是未来需要考虑的问题。我们尝试结合A股历史经验教训复盘及当前新形势，构建市场"顶部"判 别的方法论，与前期关于" 底部 "判别研究共同形成"稳市"监测框架。从我们构造的"顶部"信号打分体系来看，当前市场相对健康，估值合理且上行的 底层逻辑并未发生动摇。 点击小程序查看报告原文 A股"稳市"监测体系构建初探：提升资本市场内在稳定性，助力防范"大起大落" 我国资本市场"稳市"环境迎来新变化、新需求。 近期监管层就"稳市"相关表态较多，10月证监会主席吴清在金融街论坛年会上强调"健全长效化稳市机 制，防范市场大幅波动"[1]；11月证监会副主席李明在上交所国际投资者大会上表态"强化战略性力量储备和稳市机制建设，提升资本市场内在稳定性，坚 决防止市场大起大落、急涨急跌"[2]；12月证监会主席吴清在证券业协会会员大会上再次强调资本市场"稳中求进、以进促稳"[3]，"从政策、资金、预期 对冲等方面打好稳市组合拳"。我们在今年9月发布 《A股"长期"、"稳进"的四大条件》 ，11月发布的 《2026年A股展望：乘势笃行》 中强调节奏上"防范 波动"。"稳市"机 ...

Core Insights - The overall market has shown strong resilience since the index surpassed 4000 points, with a continuous upward shift despite occasional fluctuations [1] - The calendar effect is expected to re-emerge as the end of 2025 approaches, supported by the ongoing restructuring of international monetary order and significant breakthroughs in the renewable energy battery sector [1] - China's innovative industries are gradually realizing performance results, which is anticipated to continue supporting the performance of Chinese assets [1] Economic and Market Outlook - The domestic economy appears to be in a recovery phase, with the narrative surrounding artificial intelligence continuing to gain traction [1] - The market outlook remains positive, with recommendations for broad-based core allocations, particularly in the CSI A500 ETF (159338) and the SSE Composite Index ETF (510760), which may better withstand the anticipated high volatility in the near term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new phase of China-US economic and trade relations, highlighting the transition from conflict to a more balanced dialogue, which may have significant implications for global governance and the international monetary order [2][3]. Group 1: New Phase of China-US Economic Relations - The economic relationship between China and the US has evolved through three distinct phases: "coexistence and win-win" (2005-2016), increasing trade friction (2017-2024), and a new phase of equal dialogue starting in 2025 [4][5][12]. - The "coexistence and win-win" phase was characterized by strong economic interdependence, with China providing cheap labor and the US benefiting from low inflation and financial prosperity [5][7]. - The increasing trade friction phase saw the US imposing tariffs, with the effective tariff rate on China remaining high at 19.3% even after some easing in 2020 [11][12]. Group 2: Characteristics and Policy Implications of the New Phase - The new phase is marked by a balance of power, allowing for negotiations that could lead to mutually beneficial agreements, such as adjustments in tariffs on agricultural products and strategic resources [20][21]. - The US's reliance on China for certain exports and the need for China to maintain its economic growth create a scenario where both countries have incentives to engage in dialogue [20][22]. - The potential for currency adjustments, such as the appreciation of the yuan and the reduction of US tariffs, could help rebalance trade and improve consumer purchasing power in both countries [21][22]. Group 3: International Monetary Order and Asset Implications - The new phase may reinforce the ongoing restructuring of the international monetary order, with a shift away from dollar dominance towards a more fragmented and diversified system [26][28]. - The trend of capital returning to domestic markets, particularly in China, indicates a growing preference for local investments amid global uncertainties [28][30]. - The long-term competition between the US and China is likely to drive increased investment in research and development, impacting various asset classes differently, with strategic resources like rare earths gaining importance [54][55].

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, closing up 0.73% at 4029.50 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78% to 13476.52 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.55% to 3201.75 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2042 billion, an increase of 96.9 billion compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Almost all industry sectors saw gains, with notable increases in energy metals, batteries, fertilizers, precious metals, power equipment, non-metallic materials, and chemical products [1] - The lithium battery industry chain experienced a surge, driving the collective rise of the new energy sector, with the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) up 6.20% and the ChiNext New Energy ETF (159387) up 4.78% [1][3] Lithium Battery and Energy Storage - The demand for lithium batteries is being driven by energy storage, with lithium carbonate futures prices rising by 20% from October 14 to November 10 [3] - Major lithium iron phosphate manufacturers are operating at full or even over capacity, indicating strong production activity [3] - The energy storage sector is expected to enter a new cycle driven by global energy transition, with a projected 50% growth in energy storage demand by 2026 [2] Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - The innovative drug sector in China is experiencing growth, with revenue reaching 48.56 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.41% [5] - The number of approved innovative drugs has been increasing, with 210 innovative drugs and 269 innovative medical devices approved during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4] - The global market is increasingly recognizing Chinese innovative drugs, with total licensing amounts nearing 66 billion USD in the first half of 2025 [4]