转自：新华财经 新华财经北京11月18日电 由于担心日本首相高市早苗不断膨胀的支出计划，长期日债连续第二日遭投 资者抛售，与此同时，日经指数周二（18日）大幅下跌，这是三周以来首次跌破5万大关。该指数收盘 于48,702点，比周一收盘时下跌了3%以上。而在日本股市下跌之前，投资者对美联储下月降息的预期 降低，隔夜纽约股市出现了更广泛的抛售。 当天盘中及盘后交易，中短债日债收益率下行，长期日债收益率上行，截至发稿时，2年期日债收益率 跌1BP至0.925%，10年期日债收益率涨2.1BPs至1.75%，20年期日债收益率涨4.6BPs至2.791%，30年期 日债收益率涨5.6BPs至3.315%。 "通常情况下，当这些避险事件发生时，都是由美联储发起的，并因对日本的担忧而延续，"法国兴业银 行首席美国股市和多资产策略师马尼什·卡布拉表示。 市场参与者还预计，日本央行12月召开的政策会议将不会加息。 日本央行行长植田和男周二表示，他告诉首相，央行正在逐步提高利率，以引导通胀平稳地向2%的目 标迈进，这番言论让市场继续猜测加息的时机。 分析人士表示，投资者迫切希望了解高市经济措施的规模，以及她计划如何为这些措施提 ...

Core Insights - Emerging market trades, particularly long positions in Brazilian real and AI-related stocks, are raising concerns due to overcrowding risks [1][3] - Asset management firms are warning that valuations of Latin American currencies have deviated from fundamentals, indicating potential risks [1][6] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has seen a nearly 30% increase this year, marking its best performance since 2017, but past trends suggest a possible significant downturn could follow [3][4] Group 1: Emerging Market Concerns - Many emerging market sectors are showing signs of overheating, driven by factors such as Fed rate cuts and a softening dollar [3] - A recent HSBC survey indicated that 61% of investors are overweight in emerging market local currency bonds, a significant shift from a net underweight in June [3] - The potential for profit-taking as the year ends may lead to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [3][4] Group 2: Specific Market Risks - Asian stock investors experienced risks associated with high valuations and crowded trades, particularly in AI stocks [4] - The Korean Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) saw a significant drop despite a previous surge, highlighting the risks of concentrated positions in AI-related trades [4] - Lazard Asset Management's portfolio manager expressed caution after the tech stock sell-off, noting that low-quality companies have been outperforming high-quality ones, which historically does not last [5] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Dynamics - Brazilian real has been a standout asset for carry trades, but recent indicators suggest a shift towards bearish sentiment [6] - Other Latin American currencies, such as Chilean, Mexican, and Colombian pesos, are also showing signs of overvaluation [6] - Frontier market bonds have benefited from a trend of investors moving away from U.S. assets, but concerns about liquidity in markets like Egypt and Ghana are emerging [7]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, supported by government bond yield differentials and technical factors, leading to uncertainty in the currency's direction [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan, under Governor Ueda, maintains an accommodative stance to support recovery, while the new Prime Minister, Sanna Takagi, continues "Abenomics," reducing expectations for interest rate hikes by year-end [1] - The policy interest rate in Japan is 0.5%, with a differential of over 300 basis points compared to the US Federal Funds Rate, attracting funds for carry trades that support the exchange rate [1] - Despite weaker data in October raising the probability of a Fed rate cut to 60%, the resolution of the government shutdown has improved risk appetite, diminishing the safe-haven demand for the yen [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The current exchange rate is in a consolidation phase, with the 154 level being crucial for both bulls and bears; after hitting a low of 152.80 on November 7, the rate rebounded to 154.49 on the 14th, indicating solid support [2] - Technical indicators show bullish signals, with the RSI remaining above 50, and the 20-day moving average around 152.52 providing dual support; a pullback to this level may attract buyers [2] - Resistance levels are identified at 154.48 and 154.83; a breakthrough above 154.83 could target the 155 level, with some institutions predicting a potential rise to 160 by year-end [2]

他们失算的原因有二：一是美国经济对贸易冲击的韧性出人意料，政策制定者对进一步降息的态度趋于 冷淡；二是日本新政府更倾向于让央行放缓加息。 这一热门押注的瓦解，凸显出在美国总统特朗普第二任期的前11个月里，市场彻底违背了预期。 这也表明日元的疲软态势有多顽固——对投资者而言，这是一次代价高昂的误判，因为持有几乎无收益 的日元，意味着要放弃其他投资能获得的收益。 "市场曾普遍预期美日利率将趋同，但这一过程的推进可能并未如预期般顺利。"道富银行（State Street）东京分行经理巴特·若林（Bart Wakabayashi）表示，过去七个月里，该行客户已将日元看涨押注 完全调至中性。 本周美元兑日元触及155日元以上的9个月高点时，日本官方释放了干预暗示，但市场多数观点认为，这 一已连续近五年承压的货币接下来可能横盘或继续走弱。 "我们目前持观望态度……但更倾向于日元走弱。"新加坡金融服务公司Klay Group外汇与利率主管瓦伊 巴夫·隆巴（Vaibhav Loomba）表示，"当前市场缺乏确定性交易方向。" 投资者曾押注创纪录规模的资金，认为日元会升值，以期从日本长期期待的经济复苏中获利，同时押注 美国经济 ...

展望未来，光大证券预计2026年市场情绪趋于理性，未来涨势可持续性取决于政策落地效果。外需方 面，虽然美日利差收窄推动日元走强，削弱出口企业的国际竞争力，但贸易对象多元化以及日本优势产 业的竞争力较强，仍可能支撑日本的出口增速。内需方面，若通胀回落顺畅、居民实际收入水平提升， 将带动居民消费信心改善，实现"工资-通胀"螺旋，提高企业盈利水平。 日元方面，日元存在震荡上行空间。日本央行货币政策正常化以及美联储仍处于降息周期。这种利差收 敛趋势将显著削弱套息交易活跃度，为日元升值提供支撑。日股方面，前期涨幅已充分兑现政策预期， 截至10月末日经 225 指数年内累计上涨31.4%，而其中约半数涨幅是由政策预期拉动的，本质是投资者 对其"扩张性财政、弱日元"的提前定价。 【环球网财经综合报道】日本财务省最新数据显示，上周，日本投资者净抛售5811亿日元外国股票、 3544亿日元长期债券及7987亿日元短期债券。同期，外国投资者连续第五周净买入6901亿日元日本股 票。 光大证券近日发布研报分析指出，由于日本仍处于高通胀的环境，当局在货币政策方面难以复制此前对 央行的强干预。但在财政政策方面，推行"负责任的积极财政" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Norwegian central bank has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.00%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating that the work to combat inflation is not yet complete [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The core inflation rate in September slightly decreased from 3.1% in August to 3.0%, still significantly above the 2% policy target [1] - The central bank plans to implement interest rate cuts during 2026 if the economy follows the current expected path [1] - Following a "hawkish cut" in September, where the interest rate was lowered from 4.25% to 4.00%, the central bank has signaled that future easing will be very gradual [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - The market reacted calmly to the decision, indicating that investors have fully priced in the central bank's hawkish stance [1] - The prolonged maintenance of relatively high interest rates in Norway may last longer than in most developed economies, providing ongoing support for carry trades involving the Norwegian krone [1]

Group 1 - The global asset performance in September shows that global stocks outperformed other asset classes, with a return of 3.31%, followed by global bonds at 0.65%, and commodities at 0.05% [2] - The international spot gold price has recently continued its strong upward momentum, breaking through $3,800 per ounce at the end of September, driven by multiple systemic factors and market sentiment [4][12] - Despite the U.S. government shutdown, the stock market showed resilience, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reaching historical highs, buoyed by optimistic market sentiment and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [4][17] Group 2 - The credit spread for U.S. high-yield corporate bonds narrowed to a historical low of 2.67% by the end of September 2025, indicating high investor confidence in corporate credit quality [5][20] - Global fund managers increased their allocations to stocks, pharmaceuticals, communications, consumer discretionary, and technology, while reducing exposure to the UK, utilities, energy, Eurozone, and emerging markets [6][23] - The Indian stock market has underperformed the MSCI Asia-Pacific index for five consecutive months, reflecting a divergence between foreign and domestic investor sentiment [6][28] Group 3 - Speculative net positions in Japanese yen have decreased to 79,500 contracts, indicating a waning bullish sentiment towards the yen [6][31] - The volatility ratio of emerging market currencies to G7 currencies has continued to decline, reaching a low of 0.76, improving the risk-return profile for carry trades [6][36] - The scale of reserves held by banks at the Federal Reserve has fallen below $3 trillion, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, due to large-scale Treasury issuance and ongoing quantitative tightening [6][39] Group 4 - The S&P 500 index and the MOVE index (a measure of U.S. Treasury market volatility) have shown a strong correlation, suggesting that the current stock market rally is supported by low interest rate volatility [6][42] - The overnight interbank offered rate in Hong Kong surged to 5.35%, the highest level in nearly a year, highlighting short-term funding market tensions [6][45] Group 5 - From a fundamental perspective, the weekly economic activity index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential divergence between asset prices and economic fundamentals [6][47] - From a sentiment perspective, the market sentiment index has rebounded, reflecting improved investor confidence [6][63]

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Citigroup economists expect a cooling in core CPI for September, projecting a rise of 0.28%, down from 0.35% in August, with housing inflation easing overall service inflation [1] - Barclays highlights that the rise in gold prices reflects increasing market distrust in the existing fiscal and monetary order, with major economies' debt exceeding 100% of GDP and a lack of political will for fiscal consolidation [1] - Dutch International Group anticipates a continued bull market for gold, forecasting an average price of $4,000 per ounce in Q4, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Bond Market and Eurozone Stability - Dutch International Group reports that the low volatility environment in the Eurozone makes current bond yield spreads highly attractive, with the 10-year French and Italian bond spreads tightening to 82 basis points [2] - The political crisis in France serves as a warning for Europe, with ongoing challenges in managing rising government debt and the need for structural reforms [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that if France avoids early elections, the euro may regain an upward trend against the dollar [2] Group 3: Currency and Interest Rate Predictions - Dutch International Group indicates that the yen is becoming the preferred funding currency for carry trades, as expectations for low interest rates persist [4] - Capital Economics forecasts that the USD/JPY exchange rate will end at 150 by the end of 2025, with a potential rebound for the yen expected once the Bank of Japan resumes rate hikes [4] - Mizuho Securities maintains that the Bank of Japan will adopt a hawkish stance in the short term, despite reduced urgency for rate hikes [4] Group 4: Gold Market Projections - China International Capital Corporation predicts that gold prices could exceed $4,500 per ounce in Q1 of next year, driven by rising expectations for Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [5] - The report emphasizes that while short-term factors may fade, the long-term bullish fundamentals for gold remain intact [5] Group 5: Energy Storage and Lithium Battery Industry - CITIC Securities identifies that the energy storage sector is at a pivotal point, with significant cost reductions and policy support driving demand and market penetration [6] - The report highlights that the lithium battery supply chain is expected to improve significantly as energy storage demand accelerates [6] Group 6: Superhard Materials and Coal Sector - CITIC Securities notes that recent export controls on superhard materials may accelerate industry consolidation, leading to potential price increases in the long term [7] - The coal sector is projected to experience sustained excess returns due to balanced supply and demand dynamics, with potential price upside in the upcoming quarter [7] Group 7: AI Industry Developments - CITIC Securities observes that advancements in AI technology are exceeding expectations, with significant progress in commercialization and monetization [7] - The report emphasizes the growing importance of computing power in the AI industry, highlighting opportunities in related sectors such as optical modules and fiber optics [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) is experiencing a rare strengthening against the US dollar, marking the strongest 30-day appreciation since 2003, driven by changes in the currency market environment and strong performance in the Hong Kong stock market, underpinned by the resilience of the Chinese economy [2][3][6]. Currency Market Dynamics - The HKD appreciated sharply from the "weak side convertibility guarantee" level of 7.85 in mid-August to around 7.77, reflecting a 1% increase over the past 30 days, the strongest rise since 2003 [3][4]. - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has surged, with the overnight HKD borrowing rate rising from below 0.2% in mid-August to 4.45% by September 24 [3][4]. - The rapid fluctuations in the HKD's value since May, including a swift transition from the "strong side" to the "weak side" of the convertibility guarantee, highlight the volatility in the currency market [3][4]. Stock Market Influence - The strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Index reaching a nearly four-year high of over 27,000 points, has significantly contributed to the demand for HKD [4][5]. - Year-to-date, net inflows from southbound trading have reached 110.97 billion HKD, a 37% increase compared to the entire previous year, indicating robust foreign investment in the Hong Kong stock market [5]. Monetary Policy and Economic Factors - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has actively intervened to stabilize the HKD by withdrawing HKD liquidity, reducing the currency's balance from nearly 175 billion HKD in June to about 54 billion HKD [5]. - Seasonal factors, such as increased demand for HKD near quarter-end, have added upward pressure on the currency's value [5]. - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, has contributed to a narrowing interest rate differential between the HKD and USD, further supporting the HKD's appreciation [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the HKD may touch the "strong side convertibility guarantee" level of 7.75 in the short term, closely linked to the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [7]. - The ongoing influx of both domestic and foreign capital into the stock market is expected to remain a core factor influencing the HKD's exchange rate against the USD in the medium to long term [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous research iteration to approach the truth, highlighting that growth comes from persistent denial and reconstruction [2][26]. Group 1: Research Framework and Goals - The team is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research outcomes [2]. - The guiding principle is to provide valuable independent research results that are grounded in reality and actionable [2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The article discusses the shift in the economic "three drivers" from manufacturing to services, indicating that as GDP per capita reaches $10,000 to $30,000 and urbanization hits 70%, service sector demand will accelerate [28]. - It notes that new consumption policies emphasize long-term strategies for domestic demand expansion rather than short-term stimuli, while also providing support for manufacturing to counter tariff impacts [29]. - The concept of "anti-involution" is presented as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry focus, broader coverage, and stronger coordination among policies and market mechanisms [31]. Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The article highlights that the biggest expectation gap in the global macroeconomic landscape for the first half of 2025 is the disproof of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [21]. - It mentions that the focus of tariffs may shift towards validating economic data, with potential concerns about recession if the U.S. unemployment rate rises to 4.6% [21]. - The impact of geopolitical risks, particularly since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is noted as a significant factor in global macroeconomic conditions and asset pricing [23].