Financial Market Dynamics and Open Market Operations - The current target range for the federal funds rate is approaching a neutral level, with GDP forecasts for 2025 to 2027 similar to those prepared for the June meeting [1] - Almost all participants at the Federal Reserve's July meeting agreed that maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% is appropriate [1] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident in commodity prices, but the overall effect on the economy and inflation remains to be seen [1] - The market perceives the overall U.S. economy as resilient, but financial markets are beginning to differentiate between individual companies based on earnings scale and quality [1] - Existing data shows that foreign holdings of U.S. assets remain relatively stable [1] - Reserves remain in a state of abundance [1] Economic Situation Assessment - Actual GDP growth in the first half of the year has been moderate, with the unemployment rate remaining low and consumer price inflation still slightly elevated [1] - Inflation appears to have stagnated, with tariffs exerting upward pressure on commodity price inflation [1] - The labor market remains robust [1] Financial Situation Assessment - The U.S. financial system is still described as "significantly" fragile, with asset valuation pressures remaining high [1] - Vulnerabilities related to non-financial corporate and household debt are characterized as "moderate," with household debt to GDP ratio at its lowest level in the past 20 years and household balance sheets remaining strong [1] - The debt repayment capacity of listed companies remains strong [1] Economic Outlook - Commodity price increases are expected to be smaller and occur later than previously anticipated, with financial conditions expected to provide slightly stronger support for output growth [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to rise above the estimated natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1] - Tariffs are expected to push inflation higher this year and provide further upward pressure on inflation in 2026, with inflation projected to decline to 2% by 2027 [1] - High uncertainty remains, primarily reflecting changes in economic policy and their related economic impacts [1] Current Economic Conditions and Outlook - Overall inflation remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, but excluding tariff effects, inflation is close to the target [1] - Short-term inflation is expected to rise, with significant uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs, which will take time to manifest in prices [1] - Current demand conditions limit companies' ability to pass tariff costs onto prices [1] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable [1] - The unemployment rate remains low, with employment at or near maximum estimated levels [1] - Economic activity growth is expected to remain low in the second half of the year, with weakened housing demand, increased unsold homes, and declining home prices [1] - Uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high, emphasizing upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [1] - Concerns about the fragility of the U.S. Treasury market may increase demand for U.S. government bonds [1]

Group 1 - Japan's real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0% [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while business equipment investment rose by 1.3% and residential investment grew by 0.8% [1] - Public demand, including government consumption and public investment, decreased by 0.3%, contributing negatively to domestic demand growth [1] Group 2 - The Cabinet Office revised its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year (April 2025 to March 2026) down from 1.2% to 0.7% [2] - The reduction in GDP growth expectations is attributed to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, which are expected to directly decrease Japan's exports to the U.S. and indirectly affect exports to other countries [2]

Group 1 - Japan's real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0% [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while business investment in equipment rose by 1.3% and residential investment grew by 0.8% [1] - Public demand, including government consumption and public investment, decreased by 0.3%, contributing negatively to domestic demand growth [1] Group 2 - The Japanese Cabinet Office revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 1.2% to 0.7%, citing the impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japan's exports [2] - The decline in exports to the U.S. is expected to have a direct effect, while reduced exports from other countries to the U.S. will indirectly affect Japan's exports of intermediate goods [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has outperformed GDP growth for four consecutive quarters since Q3 2024, marking the first time since the second half of 2021[3] - The probability of the stock market outperforming GDP in China since 2000 is approximately 32%, with an average duration of about 6 quarters[4] - In contrast, the U.S. stock market has outperformed GDP over 60% of the time since 2000, indicating a stronger correlation between stock performance and economic growth in the U.S.[4] Group 2: Economic Context - The report emphasizes the importance of nominal GDP in the context of inflation and debt cycles, suggesting that nominal GDP reflects the economic value created across industries[3] - The analysis introduces a two-dimensional framework of real GDP and inflation, indicating that stock market outperformance is more likely during periods of "volume increase and price decrease" or "simultaneous volume and price increase"[4] - Historical examples show that when real GDP rises and the GDP deflator remains low, the probability and duration of stock market outperformance increase, as seen in the U.S. during the 1990s tech boom[7] Group 3: Factors Influencing Stock Performance - The report identifies two main factors contributing to stock market outperformance: earnings expectations (E) and non-earnings factors (PE) such as market sentiment and liquidity[4] - In the current context, the A-share market's outperformance is notable due to significant re-inflation pressures, which is relatively rare based on historical precedents[5] - The report suggests that future market trends could follow two paths: a technology-driven slow growth route or a cyclical recovery route with rising real GDP and inflation[10]

第三，尽管量的指标回落，但价格指标出现了初步扩张（图）。原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分 别比上月上升3.1和2.1个点，这一则意味着"反内卷"取得了初步效果；二则意味着上游对下游的传导一 定程度上是有效的。前期EPMI实际上也有类似指向，当时我们指出"新能源、节能环保、新能源汽车销 售价格有不同程度上行，反内卷政策升温可能是主要影响变量"。 第四，值得注意的是，企业生产经营活动预期至4个月以来最高，这证实了微观预期更多和名义GDP相 关这样一个基本逻辑。只要量的收缩幅度可控，价格弹性对于企业生产经营活动预期有积极影响。 广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 摘要 第一，7月制造业、非制造业PMI双放缓。7月是制造业淡季，过去5年、10年同期环比均值分别 为-0.3、-0.2，今年7月的-0.4个点对应的放缓幅度略大于季节性。 第二，订单放缓幅度略大于生产，显示本轮放缓是从需求向供给传导。订单和生产环比分别为0.8、0.5 个点。从终端需求来看，可能有几个原因：一是耐用品脉冲充分释放后有所减弱，7月前27天乘联会口 径汽车零售环比上月同期下降19%，同比降至9%；二是地产销售近月转弱，7月前30天30城地产成交同 比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI both showed a decline in July, indicating a seasonal slowdown that is slightly more pronounced than in previous years. The decline in orders is greater than that in production, suggesting a transmission of slowdown from demand to supply [1][4][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI was recorded at 49.3, down from 49.7, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.1, down from 50.5. The historical average for July over the past 5 and 10 years was -0.3 and -0.2 respectively, indicating this year's decline is slightly above seasonal norms [5][4]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4, lower than the previous 50.2, and the new export orders index was 47.1, down from 47.7 [6]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The slowdown in orders is attributed to several factors: a decrease in durable goods demand, with automotive retail sales dropping 19% month-on-month and 9% year-on-year; a decline in real estate sales, with a 21.2% year-on-year drop in transactions across 30 cities; and a potential contraction in production activities in some industrial sectors due to rising "anti-involution" sentiments [1][5]. Group 3: Price Indicators - Despite the decline in quantity indicators, price indicators showed initial expansion, with the raw material purchase price index and factory price index rising by 3.1 and 2.1 points respectively. This suggests that the "anti-involution" policy is starting to take effect and that there is some effective transmission from upstream to downstream [2][7][8]. - The production activity expectation index for July reached its highest level in four months at 52.6, indicating a positive correlation with nominal GDP as long as the contraction in quantity remains manageable [8]. Group 4: Construction Sector - The construction sector showed a decline, with the construction PMI at 50.6, down from 52.8. This decline is attributed to adverse weather conditions and pressures from real estate sales and fiscal spending on infrastructure [9][10]. - The new orders index for construction was 42.7, down from 44.9, indicating a weakening in demand within the sector [11]. Group 5: Business Confidence Index (BCI) - The BCI fell by 1.6 points from June, with a current value of 47.7. The index reflects a trend of "sales declining, profits rising," which aligns with the logic of slowing real GDP and improving nominal GDP [12][13]. - The forward-looking indices for consumer goods and intermediate goods prices unexpectedly declined, indicating that while short-term prices may rebound, the medium-term expectations for price increases are not yet solidified [12][15].

美国上周初请数据、5月耐用品订单月率、第一季度实际个人消费支出季率终值、实际GDP及核心PCE 物价指数年化季率终值将于十分钟后公布。 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月09日 [价格Table_NewTitle] 压力持续，亟待政策破局 ——国内观察：2025年5月通胀数据 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 宏 观 简 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 评 ➢ 事件：2025年6月9日，统计局发布5月通胀数据。5月，CPI当月同比-0.1%，前值-0.1%； 环比-0.2%，前值0.1%。PPI当月同比-3.3%，前值-2.7%；环比-0.4%，前值-0.4%。 ➢ 核心观点：5月CPI环比虽然符合季节性，但同比已连续4个月为负，PPI同比也突破了此前 持续震荡的区间下限。油价的下跌拖累了CPI中的交通和通信价格，也输入性影响了PPI中 相关产业价格。不过从6月第一周的情况来看，油价出现了明显的反弹，这一限制影响在6 月可能会有所减轻，但拉长时间来看仍存 ...

这个说法，有必要解释与调整一下 因为很多网友误认为，这个73227亿美元的GDP数额与"环比下降0.07%，按年计算的降幅为0.3%"有直接的关联。南生可以明确的告诉大家，它们之间没有 关联，是采用不同统计标准下的产物。 接下来南生给大家详细解释不同核算规则下，美国一季度的各项数值。先看采用经过日历与季节调整之规则，在此标准下有两个数值，分别是采用基准年物 价核算的实际GDP，采用市场物价核算的名义GDP。 在昨天的文章中南生写道：美国商务部已正式公布了2025年第一季度的经济成绩单，初步统计结果为"环比缩减0.07%、环比年化下降0.3%，但同比上涨了 1.9%"，按市场物价核算的名义GDP为73227亿美元。 以2017年的基准年物价核算，美国2025年第一季度的实际GDP数额为58815.25亿美元，去年第四季度为58855.75亿美元，环比减少40.5亿美元，环比降幅为 0.07%，将这个数值年化后就是"下降0.3%"。 同样是采用2017年的基准物价，去年第一季度的实际GDP为57633.75亿美元。与今年第一季度的58815.25亿美元相比，同比实际增长了2.1%。 采用基准年物价得到的各季度实际 ...

美国一季度实际GDP及核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值、实际个人消费支出季率初值、劳工成本指数季 率、加拿大2月GDP月率将于十分钟后公布。 ...