Core Viewpoint - The concept of establishing an "Asian Monetary Fund" (AMF) has resurfaced due to the changing global economic landscape and the increasing need for financial stability and cooperation among Asian countries [1][3][11]. Group 1: Historical Context - The idea of creating an AMF originated during the 1997 Asian financial crisis when Asian countries faced severe currency devaluations and sought a collective response to stabilize their economies [2][9]. - The initial proposal for an AMF was rejected due to U.S. intervention, which imposed stringent conditions through the IMF, exacerbating the financial turmoil in the region [2][10]. Group 2: Current Economic Landscape - Nearly 30 years later, the conditions for establishing an AMF have significantly improved, with Asian economies now being major global players in terms of economic size, trade volume, and population [3][4]. - The U.S. has adopted a protectionist stance, imposing high tariffs on Asian exports, which has increased the urgency for Asian countries to seek reliable financial support [3][11]. - The financial development in Asia has matured, with a solid industrial base and increased financial capacity, allowing for better management of funds and resources [3][4]. Group 3: Regional Cooperation and Mechanisms - The establishment of the AMF is seen as a pragmatic response to the lack of effective regional financial coordination mechanisms, which have historically left Asian countries vulnerable to external shocks [6][10]. - Existing frameworks like the "Chiang Mai Initiative" have laid the groundwork for regional financial cooperation, but further multilateralization is needed to enhance effectiveness [10][11]. - The successful implementation of trade agreements like RCEP has strengthened regional supply chains and economic autonomy, creating a conducive environment for the AMF [4][12]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Implications - The establishment of an AMF could significantly enhance regional economic stability and predictability, positively impacting global economic recovery [12]. - It would facilitate increased use of local currencies in trade, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar and mitigating the effects of dollar hegemony [12]. - The AMF could amplify the economic "aggregation effect" within the region, improving the utilization of existing trade agreements and fostering a more resilient financial ecosystem [12].

乌赞认为，美元目前仍是主导性的储备货币，但其独大局面恐难持续。他分析了四个关键动因：首先， 美国将美元"武器化"并通过制裁施压他国，促使新兴市场重新评估其储备积累策略；其次，美国国内政 策可预测性下降，央行独立性与法治传统受到挑战，动摇了市场对美元的信心；第三，中国作为主要贸 易伙伴，正推动人民币在贸易和支付中的更广泛使用；第四，数字货币、稳定币等技术创新可能从根本 上重塑储备货币的逻辑。乌赞特别强调，"市场的信心正在被侵蚀"，美联储的独立性若无法保障，将对 美国乃至全球产生巨大影响。 谈及金砖国家扩员，乌赞指出这象征着全球南方影响力的显著提升。金砖国家已从新兴中等强国集团， 凝聚成一个关键共识：即减少对美元的依赖。他以新开发银行（NDB）的设立为例，说明在布雷顿森 林体系之外，新的平行治理机制正在形成。乌赞建议，国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁应出席金砖峰会 以加强沟通，并亟需推动金砖国家与欧盟等多边主义支持者之间的对话。 （原标题：专访乌赞：全球货币体系多极化加速，金砖推动全球治理新秩序） 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭 上海报道 近日，重塑布雷顿森林体系委员会执行主任马克·乌赞（Marc UZAN）在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that for a currency to achieve internationalization, the issuing country must be a global economic, technological, trade, and financial power. It suggests a phased approach for China to accelerate the internationalization of the Renminbi by enhancing economic development, increasing gold reserves, and building a modern financial market system while adhering to market-driven principles [1]. Summary by Sections International Currency Definition - An international currency is widely accepted and used in international economic transactions, characterized by convertibility, relative stability, and broad acceptance. Its internationalization is a natural outcome of historical economic development and a reflection of a country's comprehensive economic, technological, trade, and financial strengths [2]. Historical Review of Major Currencies - The article reviews the internationalization processes of major currencies, highlighting that the U.S. dollar, euro, and British pound have all followed similar paths influenced by economic and geopolitical factors [3]. U.S. Dollar Internationalization - The U.S. dollar became the world's leading international currency starting in 1900, primarily due to: - The Second Industrial Revolution, which established the U.S. as the world's leading economic power [4]. - World Wars I and II, which allowed the U.S. to accumulate substantial gold reserves while remaining largely unaffected by the conflicts [4]. - The "Dollar Diplomacy" policy, which expanded the dollar's influence in Latin America and Europe, particularly through the Marshall Plan post-World War II [5]. - The establishment of the Gold Standard Act, the Federal Reserve System, and the Bretton Woods System, which provided a stable institutional framework for the dollar [7]. Euro Internationalization - The euro emerged as the second-largest international currency within a few decades, driven by: - The establishment of the European Economic and Monetary Union, which laid the groundwork for the euro's creation [8]. - The introduction of the European Currency Unit (ECU), which stabilized member currencies and facilitated trade [8]. - The internationalization of the German mark and French franc, which contributed to the euro's acceptance [9]. - The establishment of the European Central Bank, which ensured monetary stability for the euro [11]. - The strong gold reserves and economic power of eurozone countries, which bolstered the euro's global influence [10]. British Pound Internationalization - The British pound was the first modern international currency, with its internationalization supported by: - The establishment of a modern financial system and the founding of the Bank of England, which provided a stable monetary framework [11]. - The First Industrial Revolution, which positioned the UK as the "world's factory" and increased the pound's use in international trade [11]. - A significant gold reserve, established through colonial expansion and mining, which underpinned the gold standard [12]. - Aggressive foreign investment strategies that enhanced the pound's international standing [12].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significance of gold reserves held by various countries, particularly in the context of the United States' role as a custodian of global gold reserves [1][3][4] - It highlights the historical context of why many countries store their gold in the U.S., tracing back to the Bretton Woods system and the post-World War II international landscape [3][4] - The growing distrust towards the U.S. regarding gold storage is emphasized, with examples of countries attempting to retrieve their gold reserves and facing obstacles [3][4] Group 1: Importance of Gold Reserves - Gold reserves are a measure of national strength, with the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank storing a significant portion of global gold [1] - International trade often utilizes gold as a settlement method, particularly within the U.S. [3] - The U.S. has historically held about two-thirds of the world's gold post-World War II, leading to a reliance on U.S. gold storage by other nations [3] Group 2: Trust Issues and Retrieval Attempts - Countries like Venezuela and Germany have faced challenges in retrieving their gold from U.S. custody, raising concerns about the safety and accessibility of their reserves [3][4] - Germany's experience in attempting to repatriate gold has led to speculation about the actual status of its gold reserves in the U.S. [3][4] - The article notes that over 80 countries store gold in the U.S. primarily due to trust, but recent actions by the U.S. may lead to a crisis of confidence among these nations [4] Group 3: Global Trends in Gold Storage - Nations such as Turkey, Russia, and Hungary are increasingly repatriating their gold reserves, indicating a shift in strategy to mitigate financial risks associated with currency depreciation [3][4] - China's gold reserve situation is discussed, with estimates suggesting it may hold around 600 tons in the U.S., although the necessity of this storage is debated [4] - The article suggests that if multiple countries demand their gold back simultaneously, it could lead to a significant crisis for the U.S. [4]

Core Viewpoint - The presence of Chinese gold in the United States is a standard practice within the global financial system, not a forced action or a sign of insecurity [1][12]. Group 1: Historical Context - The New York Federal Reserve's underground vault serves as a "public warehouse" for gold, housing nearly 7,000 tons from over 60 countries and international organizations, including China [4]. - The practice of storing gold in the U.S. began post-World War II as European nations sought to protect their gold from wartime destruction, establishing the U.S. as a "gold haven" [4][3]. Group 2: Transactional Efficiency - Storing gold in New York facilitates easier transactions; for instance, transferring gold between countries can be done without physical transport, significantly reducing costs [5][8]. - New York remains the primary hub for global gold trading, with 80% of transactions linked to the city, making it a vital location for efficient trading and settlement [8][7]. Group 3: Cost Advantages - The Federal Reserve does not charge storage fees for gold, only transaction fees, making it more economical than building and maintaining a private vault [9]. - The cost of constructing a vault capable of storing 100 tons of gold can reach hundreds of millions, while using New York's facilities offers substantial savings [9]. Group 4: Ownership and Security - The gold stored in New York is considered "custodial" rather than "collateral," meaning ownership remains with the depositing country, and the U.S. has no rights to use it [10]. - Countries like Germany have successfully repatriated gold from New York, demonstrating that retrieval is not an issue but rather a matter of convenience [10]. Group 5: Current Trends and Adjustments - Recent shifts in global finance, including rising U.S. debt and declining dollar confidence, have prompted countries, including China, to diversify their gold reserves [12]. - China's gold imports have surged, indicating a strategy to optimize reserve structures while maintaining a portion in New York for transactional efficiency [12][13]. Group 6: Broader Implications - The strategy of diversifying gold storage reflects a broader adjustment to reduce reliance on a single currency and enhance financial sovereignty [13]. - China's actions are aimed at increasing the international standing of the Renminbi, thereby gaining more control over gold storage and transactions in the future [13].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) aims to issue more euro stablecoins to counter the rapid expansion of US dollar stablecoins in Europe [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for the Popularity of US Dollar Stablecoins - Many individuals and businesses in the Eurozone prefer using US dollar stablecoins for payments, savings, and transactions due to their safety, as they are pegged 1:1 to the US dollar and backed by US assets [5]. - The convenience of blockchain technology allows for fast cross-border transactions without the need for traditional banks, enhancing privacy [5]. - Higher interest rates on US dollar deposits compared to European rates incentivize users to hold dollar stablecoins for better returns [5]. - The dominance of the US dollar in global trade, especially in commodities and cryptocurrency transactions, makes it essential for European businesses to use dollar stablecoins for international dealings [5][7]. Group 2: Challenges for Euro Stablecoins - The EU's attempt to promote euro stablecoins faces significant challenges due to the entrenched dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system [8][10]. - The historical context of the US dollar's supremacy, established through systems like Bretton Woods and the petrodollar, has created a robust demand for dollar stablecoins, which merely digitize existing dollar demand [10][11]. - The euro, while the second-largest currency globally, is primarily used within the Eurozone, limiting its appeal for international transactions [13]. - The EU must address internal issues such as building asset pools, ensuring transparency, and gaining user trust before euro stablecoins can compete effectively [17]. Group 3: Current Initiatives and Future Outlook - The EU is currently testing euro stablecoins in specific areas like cross-border e-commerce and internal natural gas transactions to build familiarity and usage within the Eurozone [19]. - The competition between stablecoins is just beginning, with potential opportunities arising from future economic shifts, such as US debt issues or the development of regional stablecoins in Asia-Pacific [19][21]. - The EU's strategy should focus on solidifying the internal market for euro stablecoins before attempting to compete with US dollar stablecoins on a global scale [21].

Core Insights - The upcoming face-to-face negotiations between China and the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur on October 24 are highly anticipated and are expected to have significant implications for global markets [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Context - The choice of Malaysia as the negotiation venue reflects a strategic geopolitical calculation, serving as a neutral ground that avoids direct pressure from either side's home territory while acknowledging ASEAN's growing economic significance [3]. - The timing of the talks is notable, occurring close to the U.S. election period and after China's Q3 economic data release, suggesting a carefully crafted opportunity for both sides to negotiate with updated information [3]. Group 2: Depth of Negotiations - The discussions will extend beyond traditional tariff issues to encompass deeper topics such as digital trade rules, renewable energy standards, and ethical considerations in artificial intelligence, indicating a broader scope of negotiation [5]. - The high-level representation from both sides, with China's Vice Premier He Lifeng leading the delegation, signifies the importance of these talks and the potential for addressing structural challenges in the economic relationship [5]. Group 3: Global Economic Reordering - The negotiations are set against the backdrop of a shifting global economic order, with the decline of the post-World War II Bretton Woods system and the ongoing restructuring of global supply chains exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts [7]. - Southeast Asian countries are closely monitoring the outcomes, as any agreements reached will likely reshape regional supply chains and impact local industries [7]. Group 4: Market Expectations - Capital markets exhibit a cautious optimism regarding the talks, reflecting lessons learned from previous negotiations that have experienced volatility and uncertainty [9]. - A constructive outcome may not necessarily be a comprehensive agreement but rather the establishment of effective crisis management mechanisms to prevent conflicts amid competition [9]. Group 5: Future Economic Relations - The negotiations serve as a test for the U.S.'s "competitive coexistence" strategy, balancing the need to curb China's high-tech advancements while maintaining essential economic cooperation [11]. - The discussions signal a recognition that complete decoupling is unrealistic, and that competition and cooperation will define the future of U.S.-China economic relations [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices has been significant, with London spot gold reaching a high of $4,380 per ounce and New York futures gold peaking at $4,392 per ounce within two months [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold Bull Markets - The first gold bull market began in 1968, with prices starting at $35 per ounce and peaking at $850 per ounce in 1980, marking a cumulative increase of 2,328.57% [2]. - After reaching the peak in 1980, gold prices quickly fell to $653 per ounce, with a monthly increase narrowing from 51.92% to 27.54% [2]. - The price of gold entered a long-term downtrend from 1980 to 2000, hitting a low of $251.95 per ounce in 1999, a decline of 70.36% from the 1980 peak [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The first bull market was driven by the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the subsequent loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar due to rising fiscal deficits, economic stagnation, and inflation [5]. - The appointment of Paul Volcker as Fed Chairman in 1979 led to a significant increase in interest rates, which negatively correlated with gold prices, contributing to the end of the first bull market [6][7]. - The second gold bull market began in 2001, with prices rising from $272.50 per ounce to a peak of $1,921.15 per ounce in 2011, a cumulative increase of 605.01% [8]. - Similar to the first bull market, the second bull market ended with a rapid price correction after reaching new highs, with prices falling to $1,045.54 per ounce by December 2015, a drop of 45.58% from the peak [9]. Group 3: Current Gold Bull Market Dynamics - The current gold bull market started in 2022, with prices rising from $1,614 per ounce to a recent high of $4,380.79 per ounce, reflecting a cumulative increase of 171.42% [15]. - The driving factors for the current bull market include persistent high U.S. fiscal deficits, pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, and the politicization of the dollar's role as a reserve currency, leading countries to increase gold reserves [17]. - The potential for a fundamental improvement in the U.S. economy is seen as crucial for restoring confidence in the dollar and the U.S. economy, with artificial intelligence being identified as a key area for growth [18]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The current gold bull market is expected to continue, with price increases potentially reaching levels comparable to the previous bull markets, with a lower limit near the 605.01% increase of the second bull market and a possibility of exceeding the 2,328.57% increase of the first bull market [19]. - Despite the bullish outlook, price volatility and potential technical corrections are anticipated, necessitating caution in pursuing short-term gains [20].

Core Viewpoint - Recent international gold prices have surged significantly, with London spot gold reaching a high of $4,380 per ounce and New York futures gold hitting $4,392 per ounce, indicating a strong upward trend in the market [1][13]. Historical Context of Gold Bull Markets - The first gold bull market began in 1968, with prices rising from $35 per ounce to a peak of $850 per ounce in 1980, marking a cumulative increase of 2,328.57%. However, after reaching this peak, prices quickly fell to $653 per ounce, reflecting a significant monthly decline [1][6]. - Following the peak in 1980, gold prices entered a long-term downtrend until they reached a low of $251.95 per ounce in 1999, a drop of 70.36% from the 1980 high [2][7]. - The end of the first bull market was attributed to liquidity tightening and a fundamental improvement in the U.S. economy, particularly after the appointment of Paul Volcker as Fed Chairman, who implemented aggressive monetary policies to combat inflation [6][7]. Second Gold Bull Market Analysis - The second bull market started in 2001, with gold prices rising from $272.50 per ounce to a peak of $1,921.15 per ounce in 2011, achieving a cumulative increase of 605.01%. Similar to the first bull market, prices fell sharply after reaching the peak [8][11]. - By December 2015, gold prices had dropped to $1,045.54 per ounce, a decline of 45.58% from the 2011 peak [8][11]. - The second bull market was driven by economic turmoil following the 2001 dot-com bubble and the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, with gold serving as a hedge against dollar credit risk [11][12]. Current Gold Bull Market Outlook - The current bull market began in 2022, with gold prices rising from $1,614 per ounce to a recent high of $4,380.79 per ounce, reflecting a cumulative increase of 171.42% [13][17]. - The driving factors for this bull market include persistent high U.S. fiscal deficits, pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, and the politicization of the dollar as a reserve asset, leading countries to increase gold reserves for safety [17][18]. - The potential for further price increases remains, with expectations that the current bull market could see price increases comparable to or exceeding those of previous bull markets [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, nearing $4000 per ounce, is attributed to a combination of declining real interest rates and increased demand from central banks and retail investors, rather than inflation concerns [2][5][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold's price has increased over 50% in the past year, with historical parallels drawn to the 1970s and the 2008 financial crisis [2]. - The decline in the 10-year TIPS yield from 2.2% to 1.8% has made gold a more attractive asset as real returns on dollar-denominated bonds diminish [5][7]. - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with 244 tons bought in Q1 2025 and an additional 166 tons in Q2, indicating a shift towards gold as a non-liability asset [7][9]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Record inflows into global gold ETFs reached $64 billion from January to September 2025, reflecting a trend of investors using gold as a hedge against uncertainty while still engaging in riskier assets like AI stocks and cryptocurrencies [7][11]. - The current gold buying behavior is characterized by a dual approach of seeking returns while also securing against potential market downturns [7][11]. Group 3: Historical Context - Gold has historically been viewed as the ultimate currency, transitioning from the gold standard to a fiat currency system, which has led to a renewed interest in gold as a hedge against the perceived instability of paper currencies [8][9]. - The rise in gold prices can be seen as a vote against the paper currency system, reflecting a deeper concern about trust in financial institutions and government debt [9][10]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Historical patterns suggest that rapid increases in gold prices are often followed by prolonged corrections, indicating potential volatility ahead [10]. - Gold is not merely an anti-dollar asset but is influenced by the broader dynamics of the dollar system, including interest rates and inflation [10]. - The interplay between gold and emerging technologies, such as AI, highlights the complex relationship between optimism for innovation and anxiety about systemic risks [11].