一般而言，1月份是全年信贷投放高峰期，预计规模可达3万亿至4万亿元。信贷投放增加意味着必然有 一部分资金以不同形式流入资本市场，成为春节行情的重要资金来源。同时，春节期间频繁的社交互动 以及对股票、基金的讨论，会扩大财富效应的传播，可能吸引更多投资者节后入市。因此，春节前后市 场表现整体仍可期待，这也是A股市场的季节性规律之一。 1月23日，临近2026年春节，"持股过节还是持币过节"再次引发热议。前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德 龙表示，近期受春季攻势预期与跨年度行情影响，市场出现一定震荡与调整，但这也符合慢牛长牛"进 二退一"的健康走势。待调整结束后，春季攻势行情仍值得期待。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 因此，持股过节还是持币过节，关键在于持仓结构本身。若持有的是优质股票或优质基金，在慢牛长牛 趋势仍向上的背景下，持股过节或无不妥；相反，若持有的是节前涨幅过大、缺乏业绩支撑、获利回吐 压力较大的个股或主题基金，投资者也可考虑获利了结、持币过节，以更从容的心态度过假期。 ...

2026年伊始，A股市场便以一派火热景象迎接投资者，市场热度在多个维度均有所体现，尤其以融资余额的迅猛增长最为引人注目。数据显示，从2025年12 月15日至2026年1月14日短短一个月内，A股融资余额犹如脱缰野马，自2.489万亿元一路飙升至2.681万亿元附近，增幅逼近2000亿元，投资者借钱炒股的热 情空前高涨。1月12日，单日融资净买入额更是创下阶段性纪录，高达460.5亿元。 杠杆资金的持续涌入，也反映出市场对某些特定板块的狂热追捧。据统计，电子、国防军工、计算机、电力设备等行业在过去一个月内融资净买入额均突破 百亿元大关，其中电子行业以高达315亿元的融资净买入额遥遥领先。 然而，就在市场一片欢腾之际，监管之手悄然伸出。1月14日午间休市时段，沪深北三大交易所同步发布公告，宣布自当日起将融资保证金最低比例由80% 上调至100%。此举无疑是一记重拳，直击市场过热后的非理性炒作行为。值得注意的是，此次调整采取"新老划断"原则，仅适用于新开融资合约，存量合 约则不受影响，体现出监管层呵护市场的良苦用心。 其次，市场结构正在发生深刻变化。前期被热炒的AI应用、商业航天等题材股，由于缺乏业绩支撑，成为资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market remains strong this week, with only a significant correction on Tuesday. The short - term demand for convertible bonds is still strong, and the convertible bond ETF has continued to see net inflows since New Year's Day. New bonds are generally priced high recently. In the context of the equity bull - market expectation, significant pullbacks in convertible bonds are unlikely, but the future upward trend space is limited. It is recommended to focus on structural opportunities, and pay attention to sub - new bonds and those whose issuers have waived the right to early redemption. Convertible bond valuations may have a slight correction under regulatory pressure, and investors can allocate during the adjustment [7][10]. - At the beginning of this week, the market continued its strong upward trend, with both the technology and cyclical sectors strengthening. The total market turnover approached 4 trillion yuan. There was a significant divergence in previous popular sectors, with the commercial space sector correcting sharply. After the regulatory authorities increased the margin for margin financing, the market cooled down, and the balance of margin trading and the daily turnover of the entire A - share market decreased significantly. The regulatory authorities further defined the market as a "slow and long - term bull market" over the weekend. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged. The market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, and the market trend will shift from the technology + dividend sectors to mid - cap blue - chip stocks. The cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors are favored [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Views: Strengthened Expectations of a Slow Bull Market, Seize Structural Opportunities - The convertible bond market is strong, with a slight correction in the hundred - yuan premium rate, but it remains at a very high level. The short - term demand for convertible bonds is strong, with continuous net inflows into convertible bond ETFs since New Year's Day and high pricing of new bonds. In the equity bull - market expectation, there will be no significant pullbacks in convertible bonds, but the upward space is limited. Structural opportunities should be focused on, and sub - new bonds and those with waived early redemption rights can be emphasized. Convertible bond valuations may correct slightly under regulatory pressure, and investors can allocate during adjustments [10]. - The market was strong at the beginning of the week, with technology and cyclical sectors rising. The total turnover approached 4 trillion yuan, and there was a divergence in popular sectors. After regulatory measures, the market cooled down. The regulatory authorities defined the market as a "slow and long - term bull market" over the weekend. The upward logic remains unchanged in the long - term, and the market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, shifting to mid - cap blue - chip stocks. The cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors are favored [11]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Record - High Trading Volume, Slight Decline in Valuations 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Closed Higher, Trading Volume Increased - The equity market rose with increased volume and then declined this week. Small - and medium - cap stocks performed strongly. The Kechuang 50 index rose 2.58%, the CSI 500 index rose 2.18%, the Beizheng 50 index rose 1.58%, the CSI 1000 index rose 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.00%, the CSI 2000 index rose 0.94%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.57%, and the SSE 50 index fell 1.74%. In terms of industries, the computer, electronics, and non - ferrous metals sectors led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, real estate, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors declined. The average daily trading volume increased significantly by 616.623 billion yuan to 3.46 trillion yuan. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of weekly gains were Jin 05 Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Jiamei Convertible Bond, Dingjie Convertible Bond, etc. were relatively active [15]. 3.2.2 Significant Increase in Trading Volume, High - Price and Low - Rating Convertible Bonds Performed Well - Convertible bonds rose significantly this week. The hundred - yuan premium rate declined slightly but remained at an absolute high. The average daily trading volume increased significantly to 101.923 billion yuan, peaking at 109.860 billion yuan on Wednesday and then falling below 100 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the median conversion price increased 0.9% to 106.0 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate increased 0.8% to 33.1%. In terms of style, high - price and low - rating convertible bonds continued to lead the gains, while high - rating and dual - low convertible bonds performed weakly [22].

Macro - Key Points - The central bank will lower the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points starting January 19, 2026, with new rates set at 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year re-lending respectively, and a rediscount rate of 1.5% [5] - The financing margin ratio for securities trading will increase from 80% to 100% starting January 19, 2026, while existing contracts will maintain the previous 80% requirement [6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is investigating Rongbai Technology for misleading statements in a major contract announcement [12] Industry - Key Points - Shenghong Technology expects a net profit increase of 260% to 295% for 2025, projecting profits between 4.16 billion and 4.56 billion yuan, driven by advancements in AI computing technology [13] - Longi Green Energy anticipates a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, citing ongoing challenges in the photovoltaic industry due to supply-demand mismatches and intense competition [14] - Tongwei Co. predicts a net loss of approximately 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025, facing significant operational pressures from industry oversupply and rising raw material costs [15] - Zhongke Aerospace has completed its IPO guidance, marking progress for commercial aerospace companies in the capital market [16]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% by the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges aims to reduce excessive leverage in the A-share market, which has seen record-high trading volumes and margin balances, thereby ensuring market stability and protecting investors' rights [1][15]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - The new financing margin ratio will take effect on January 19, significantly reducing investors' new financing capabilities and directly lowering the overall leverage level by 20% [4][6]. - Following the announcement, the A-share market experienced a sharp decline, with major indices turning negative and significant sell orders observed in heavyweight stocks, such as China Merchants Bank with over 6.5 billion yuan in sell orders [1][4]. - The adjustment is a response to the overheated margin trading environment, with the A-share margin trading volume reaching a record 427.2 billion yuan on January 12 and the margin balance exceeding 2.7 trillion yuan on January 15 [1][12]. Group 2: Impact on Investors and Market Dynamics - The increase in the financing margin ratio raises the entry barrier for retail and aggressive investors, making them more cautious about leveraging their investments [6][17]. - The "new and old separation" rule allows existing financing contracts to continue under the previous 80% margin ratio, providing a buffer period for the market to adjust without forcing existing investors to add margin or face liquidation [6][10]. - The current leverage level in the A-share market is relatively low, with margin balances accounting for only 2.56% of the A-share market's circulating value, indicating that the market is not in a bubble [12][15]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - The adjustment is seen as a moderate normalization of policy rather than a drastic measure to suppress the market, aiming for a sustainable "slow bull" market rather than a speculative "crazy bull" [10][15]. - The regulatory intent is to guide the market from being driven by capital to being driven by performance, fostering a more rational investment environment [14][17]. - Analysts believe that while high-volatility sectors may face profit-taking pressures, blue-chip stocks will be less affected, and the overall market is unlikely to experience systemic risks [12][15].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 港股"子"曰 | 今天，提示一下风险 个人感觉，有必要提示一下短期风险了。 近期，不论是A股还是港股，都已经陷入涨又涨不动，但随时可能下跌的窘境，所以对于面临的潜在短 期风险，决不能视而不见。 先说A股，前天（1月14日），沪深北交易所调整保证金比例，将投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金 最低比例从80%调高至100%。这个政策，尽管有解读认为这还是比较温和的调控，市场影响不会太 大。但既然降杠杆的"牌"已经打出来了，那么管理层对市场降温的意图就很明显，不想市场太疯狂，还 是要维持慢牛、长牛。 A股疯狂吗？如果说上证指数，其实也不算太疯狂，但热门概念股的炒作，确实已经很疯了，尤其是商 业航天、存储芯片等板块。2026年才交易了不到两周，已经有个股翻倍，甚至还有翻两倍的。大量个股 飙升，投资者的短期情绪很快就达到顶点。所以，这个时候，管理层必须要给市场降温，提示风险。最 近两天，大家也可以看出来，A股主动性的调整非常明显。 再说港股，虽然港股表现没有A股疯，但投资者的情绪是会传染的。尤其是很多同时参与港股和A股的 大户、机构投资者，想赚大钱 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes that the capital market in 2026 will present both opportunities and challenges, with a focus on deepening reforms and asset allocation strategies [1][2] - The goal of capital market reform is to cultivate a "slow bull" market, enhancing market vitality by attracting patient capital and long-term funds [2][3] - Experts suggest that the stock market is gradually forming a "slow bull" pattern, with key support levels for the Shanghai Composite Index expected to rise from 3800-3900 points to 4000 points [2] Group 2 - Recommendations for institutional investors include strengthening internal mechanisms, expanding investment ranges, and improving delisting mechanisms to enhance market efficiency [3][4] - The commodity market is expected to show a clear rotation pattern, with significant opportunities for investment in various sectors, including precious metals and industrial metals [6][7] - The bond market is anticipated to perform better than expected in a loose monetary environment, serving as a potential switch option after stock and commodity price increases [7][8] Group 3 - Investment strategies for 2026 should focus on technology as a core theme, with an emphasis on balancing offensive and defensive positions while being cautious of potential risks [8][9] - Experts recommend diversifying investments into advanced manufacturing, reasonably valued cyclical leaders, and high-dividend assets to enhance overall portfolio resilience [9][10] - The importance of timing and market rhythm is highlighted, suggesting that investors should avoid a passive buy-and-hold strategy and instead actively manage their portfolios [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a comprehensive policy package by the State Council to stimulate domestic demand through financial and fiscal collaboration, including various loan subsidy policies and support for private enterprises [2][9] - The A-share market indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 3.82% at 4120.43 points and the ChiNext Index up 3.89%, indicating a positive market sentiment [2][9] - The average daily trading volume in the stock market surged to 2.83 trillion yuan, with margin trading balances increasing by 78.6 billion yuan, reflecting heightened investor activity [2][9] Group 2 - In the futures market, there was a noticeable increase in both trading volume and open interest for stock index futures compared to the previous week, indicating growing market engagement [3][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a 16-day consecutive rise, with trading volume surpassing 3 trillion yuan, a rare occurrence in historical terms, suggesting a strong bullish trend [4][11] - The current market position is viewed as having high cost-effectiveness, with recommendations to focus on long positions in stock index futures strategies [11]

专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 过去十年，每年年底我都会发布第二年的十大预言。去年年底发布的2025年十大预言，现在回头来看， 基本上都得到了完美验证，包括美联储延续降息周期、美元指数回落，以及A股和港股走出牛市走势。 人民币也如我预期一样出现升值，现在已经突破7.05，而去年年底是7.4。 那么2026年会怎么走？今天我正式给大家发布2026年十大预言。如果说2025年十大预言和当时市场普遍 看法基本上是反着来的，那么2026年十大预言则是2025年的延续，因为2026年很多宏观条件没有太大变 化，市场表现也是对2025年开启的这轮慢牛、长牛行情的延续。 第一条，美联储延续降息周期，美元指数继续回落，美股逐步见顶回落。这是关于美国货币政策以及美 元、美股的判断。在美国经济增速放缓、通胀已经降下来的情况下，美联储将会继续降息，预计2026年 会降息两次，每次仍是25个基点，这样美国联邦基金利率将降到3%–3.25%。随着美联储降息以及美国 经济增速放缓，美元指数会继续回落。美股经过十几年上涨，估值已处于历史高位，而这轮美股科技牛 行情也逐步呈现出明显泡沫化，关于AI泡沫的讨 ...

专题：2025基金行业年终大盘点：公募规模近36万亿元，主动权益重夺主场，"冠军基"揭榜倒计时 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 专题：2025基金行业年终大盘点：公募规模近36万亿元，主动权益重夺主场，"冠军基"揭榜倒计时 ...