FICC日报 | 2025-08-26 股债商品共振上涨，人民币汇率走强 市场分析 7月基本面仍有韧性。全球7月的经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，非制造业保持扩张；中 国7月按美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑；金融数据中，货币供给超 预期，但融资和贷款数据仍弱；经济数据中，投资数据仍有明显压力，国内月频经济数据仍有压力。国务院第九 次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资。央行周 一开展6000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，8月MLF净投放将达3000亿元，叠加3000亿元买断式逆回购，中期流 动性净投放总规模已达6000亿元，创半年新高。8月25日，国家发展改革委召开企业座谈会，围绕科学编制"十五 五"规划，听取关于扩内需、稳就业等方面意见建议。A股全天放量大涨，三大股指全线攀升，沪指逼近3900点， 沪深两市全天成交额3.14万亿，AI硬件股持续爆发，寒武纪、海光信息再度大涨超10%，地产、白酒等板块拉升。 债市方面，国债期货低开高走，午后继续扩大涨幅，30年期主力合约涨超0.7%。商品 ...

晨报 铝锭 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2025 年 8 月 26 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价高位运行。宏观上上周美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话强化 了 9 月降息的预期。他表示，美国就业市场的风险正在上升，但通胀仍是 一个威胁。国内 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-08-26 股市趋势上⾏，股债联动弱化 股指期货：板块⾼低切换不改趋势上⾏。 股指期权：情绪持续乐观，买⼊看涨仍强。 国债期货：债市情绪回暖。 股指期货方面，板块高低切换不改趋势上行。周四沪指高开震荡， 盘中续创新高，量能基本持平。热点板块出现轮动，一是反内卷举措继续 发酵，叠加头部猪企中报成本下降、增加分红，催化农林牧渔、石油石化 行业领涨；二是中国香港的稳定币发行拉开序幕，催化跨境支付板块走 强。资金轮动下，前期热门板块出现回撤，机械设备、电力设备、国防军 工行业领跌，涨停板数量减少，高位股掀跌停潮。由于成交额维持高位， 杠杆资金继续流入，板块切换不改整体上行趋势，我们建议继续持有IM多 单，享受成长风格超额。 股指期权方面，情绪持续乐观，买入看涨仍强。昨日标的市场延续上 周乐观情绪，各品种全线上涨，双创品种仍有上行动能。期权市场成交额 破200亿大关，相比前一交易日上升36.72%，交易型资金进一步活跃。 期权市场各情绪指标均给出乐观预期：持仓量PCR极端高位，且部分品种 上方仍有一定空间；比值PCR各品种继续下 ...

· 国都港股操作导航 | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市 | 幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 45,282.47 | -0.77% | | 标普 500 指数 | 6,439.32 | -0.43% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 21,449.29 | -0.22% | | 英国富时 100 指数 | 9,321.40 | 0.13% | | 德国 DAX 指数 | 24,273.12 | -0.37% | | 日经 225 指数 | 42,488.00 | -0.75% | | 台湾加权指数 | 23,764.47 | -0.82% | | 内地股市 | | | | 上证指数 | 3,883.56 | 1.51% | | 深证成指 | 12,441.07 | 2.26% | | 香港股市 | | | | 恒生指数 | 25,829.91 | 1.94% | | 国企指数 | 9,248.00 | 1.85% | | 红筹指数 | 4,388.50 | 0.99% | | 恒生科技指数 | 5,825.09 | 3.14% | | AH 股溢价指数 | 125.66 | ...

早盘速递 2025/8/26 5. 美联储洛根：银行系统储备仍有下调空间，常设回购工具或在9月再度启用。应继续探讨，以确定继续通过区间形式沟通联 邦基金利率目标是否仍为最优选择。 板块表现 重点关注 焦煤、焦炭、沥青、玻璃、棕榈油 夜盘表现 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.81% 贵金属, 27.14% 油脂油料, 12.33% 有色, 21.08% 软商品, 2.58% 煤焦钢矿, 14.51% 能源, 3.26% 化工, 12.00% 谷物, 1.22% 农副产品, 3.06% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -16.0% -14.0% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (1,000,000) (800,000) (600,000) (4 ...

当地时间25日，美国总统特朗普与韩国总统李在明在白宫进行会晤。会晤期间，特朗普表示希望今 年与朝鲜最高领导人金正恩会面。特朗普说，他与金正恩的关系"非常好"，表示"我想要今年见他"。 在特朗普的第一个总统任期期间，特朗普和金正恩2018年6月在新加坡举行美朝在任领导人历史上首 次会晤。2019年2月在越南河内举行第二次会晤，同年6月在朝鲜半岛非军事区板门店再次会面。 泽连斯基宣布乌美将举行会谈 讨论俄乌和谈可能性 当地时间8月25日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基宣布乌克兰和美国将于本周末举行会谈，讨论乌克兰和俄罗 斯未来举行和平谈判的可能性。 2025.08. 26 【今日推荐】 特朗普：希望今年与金正恩会面 鸿蒙智行发布首款低于20万车型，余承东曾称"30万以下卖一台亏一台" 8月25日，智界及问界秋季新品发布会如期召开，鸿蒙智行五界更新亮相。其中，华为与上汽合作的 首款车型尚界H5正式开启预售，预售价格16.98万元起，这也是鸿蒙智行首款预售价低于20万元的 车型。去年6月的中国汽车蓝皮书论坛上，华为常务董事、车BU董事长余承东曾表示，鸿蒙智行产 品30万元以下的车都是亏损的，卖一台亏一台，能挣钱的都是30万元以上 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 年内还有哪些政策值得关注 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 32 期） 频率：每周 反内卷和扩内需是下半年政策的两大方向。前者治理供给问题，后者治理需求 问题，最终实现价格水平的止跌回稳。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 46 ——反内卷政策持续加码，央 国企开启反内卷新范式》2025- 08-25 2、《非美权益或再迎 Risk-on ——宏观与大类资产周报》 2025-08-24 | 图 1: 沥青企业开工率下降(%) | | --- | | 图 2: 电炉开工率下降（%）. | | 图 3: 主要钢企高炉开工率保持不变（%）… | | 图 4: 螺纹钢开工率保持不变（%） | | 图 5: 纯碱开工率上升（％） | | 图 6: 热卷开工率上升（%） … | | 图 7: 冷轧开工率保持不变（%）. | | 图 8: 全钢胎开工率上升（%） | | 图 9: 浮法玻璃开工率保持不变(%) | | 图 10: PVC 开工率下降（%） . ...

8月25日，国家发改委主任郑栅洁主持召开企业座谈会，围绕科学编制“十五五”规划，听取关于扩内需、稳就业等方面意见建议。不断完善扩内需政策举措，积极营造公平竞争市场环境，支持企业加快技术和产品创新、增加优质供给，扎实稳就业扩就业、促进高质量充分就业。同时，加强政企常态化沟通交流，点面结合帮助解决企业实际困难，促进民营经济健康发展、高质量发展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly introduced personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy aims to stimulate consumption, reduce credit costs for residents, and promote economic growth through government financial support [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The policy provides financial subsidies for eligible personal consumption loans, marking the first time the central government has implemented such a subsidy in this sector, referred to as a "national subsidy" for consumption loans [1]. - The support covers a wide range of consumption areas, including daily necessities, education, culture, tourism, electronics, and healthcare, addressing both essential needs and emerging consumption trends [1]. - The policy encompasses both goods and service consumption, with a simultaneous implementation of loan subsidies for service industry operators to enhance the convenience and quality of consumer spending [1]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The policy is designed to lower credit costs significantly, with a subsidy rate of 1%, which is approximately one-third of the current personal consumption loan interest rates offered by commercial banks, thereby reducing the interest burden on residents [2]. - The streamlined process for applying for subsidies is managed by lending institutions and local government departments, making it easier for borrowers to access financial support [2]. Group 3: Economic Strategy - The policy aims to expand domestic demand and promote consumption by breaking away from traditional practices of blanket loan subsidies, focusing instead on targeted support for consumer spending [2]. - It emphasizes collaboration among various stakeholders, including central and local governments, financial regulators, and lending institutions, to ensure that public funds effectively channel into the consumption sector [2]. Group 4: Social Considerations - The initiative reflects the government's commitment to enhancing the well-being of citizens by investing in consumer spending, which is seen as essential for improving quality of life and ensuring happiness [3]. - The policy is part of a broader strategy to release consumption potential and improve living standards, aligning with ongoing efforts to boost domestic demand [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly mentioned in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In July 2025, the national economy showed steady progress with new driving forces growing. Industrial production increased rapidly, consumption grew steadily, and investment maintained potential despite a slight slowdown [2][14] - The combined policies of anti - involution and expanding domestic demand continued to boost high - quality economic growth. Anti - involution policies aimed to optimize supply, and policies like consumer credit subsidies expanded domestic demand [4][15] - Humanoid robots moved towards scenario - based applications with improved autonomy. The first humanoid robot games and the World Robot Conference demonstrated their development [4][16] - In the context of increasing anti - involution efforts on the supply side, it's necessary to focus on whether the demand side can resonate with the supply side. Industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles, as well as the AI industry, are recommended for attention [4][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Views - In July 2025, the national economy had positive performance. Industrial added value increased by 5.7% year - on - year, equipment and high - tech manufacturing grew significantly, and the output of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased by 24.2%, 24.0%, and 17.1% respectively. Social consumer goods retail总额 was 387.8 billion yuan, with some categories showing strong growth. 1 - 7 months' fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, and investment in some industries grew rapidly [2][14] - Anti - involution policies included industry associations' resistance to malicious competition and the central bank's focus on price stability. The consumer credit subsidy policy covered a wide range of consumption areas, promoting economic growth [4][15] - Humanoid robots achieved improvements in flexibility and scenario - based applications, and the high国产化率 at the World Robot Conference indicated enhanced autonomy [4][16] - Investment suggestions included focusing on emerging industries' anti - involution progress and the development of the AI industry, especially domestic AI's performance and application scenarios [4][16] 3.2 North Exchange Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index rose 2.40% from August 11th to 15th. Its annual increase was 42.25%, second only to the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index. The index had high volatility. Electronics and computers led the gains this week, while beauty care and national defense and military industries declined. GEBICA and Haineng Technology led the individual stock gains [17][21][28] 3.3 North Exchange 50 Activity Increase - The trading volume of the North Exchange 50 in the week of August 11th - 15th was 128 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week. However, due to a larger increase in the trading volume of the Wind All - A Index, its trading volume ratio decreased to 1.22% [33] 3.4 North Exchange 50 P/E Ratio Valuation at a Relatively High Level - On August 15th, the median P/E ratio (TTM) of the North Exchange 50 was 64 times, higher than the 29 - times median of the Wind All - A Index [34]