智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普对美联储施压及重启全球贸易紧张局势，引发市场避险情绪升温，亚洲交易时段新兴市场股市与货币集体承压。摩根士 丹利资本国际新兴市场股票指数下跌0.9%，终止了此前向三年多高点攀升的势头;MSCI发展中国家货币指数同步下滑0.3%，其中韩元成为主要拖累项。 在货币政策方面，匈牙利央行周二维持基准利率6.5%不变，与罗马尼亚并列欧盟最高水平，凸显新兴市场在平衡经济增长与通胀控制间的谨慎态度。市场 分析认为，当前政治与贸易风险叠加，短期内新兴市场资产波动可能加剧。 特朗普在Truth Social发布的信函中宣称，因库克在抵押贷款申请中存在"欺骗性甚至可能是犯罪的行为"，决定以"充分理由"解除其职务。这位由拜登政府任 命的首位黑人女性理事明确拒绝辞职，其律师团队已表示将采取法律手段阻止这一"非法行动"，并强调总统无权单方面解雇理事。 事件迅速引发市场震动。周二交易时段，美元指数一度下跌0.3%，黄金价格上涨0.6%，长期美国国债收益率攀升，反映出投资者对通胀压力加剧的担忧。 若特朗普成功替换库克，其提名的政策制定者可能推动更激进的降息路径。嘉信理财策略师凯西·琼斯指出，即便美联储政策未 ...

摘要今日周二（8月26日)亚盘时段，黄金价格持续攀升，于欧洲早盘时段一举跃升至近两周以来的最高 点，达3,385美元。此番金价上扬，主要受两大因素驱动：其一为市场对美国政府可能干预美联储独立 性的担忧情绪升温；其二则是普遍预期美联储将在9月的政策会议上开启降息周期。 下方初步支撑位在3,325美元，若跌破，则可能延伸至3,285美元甚至3,270美元一线。整体来看，黄金短 期维持积极走势，但需关注上方压力区域。 黄金的上涨反映出市场对政策不确定性和降息预期的双重反应。在全球经济数据公布前，金价波动或将 加大。如果美联储释放更明确的宽松信号，金价有望突破3,400美元关口； 而到了本周后期，二季度GDP修正值与7月核心PCE物价指数也将相继出炉。倘若这些数据表现强劲， 或者通胀水平超出市场预期，那么美元有望获得提振，与此同时，黄金价格则可能面临一定的下行压 力。 值得关注的是，依据CME FedWatch工具的最新数据显示，当前市场预计美联储在9月降息25个基点的概 率高达84.3%，相较于一个月前的61.9%，这一概率有了显著提升。这种市场预期进一步增强了黄金作 为无息资产的投资吸引力。 【最新现货黄金行情解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding future interest rate cuts create significant uncertainty in monetary policy, even if a rate cut in September is likely [1][4][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference was interpreted as a strong signal for a potential rate cut in September, but it also highlighted increasing internal divisions within the Fed [3][4]. - Powell indicated that the balance of risks is shifting, with rising downward risks in the labor market, suggesting a need for policy adjustments [3][6]. - The market reacted positively, with major stock indices rising and bond yields falling, indicating strong expectations for a September rate cut [4][5]. Group 2: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is divided into three camps: - The "doves" advocating for multiple rate cuts due to concerns over labor market weakness [7]. - The "hawks" opposing rate cuts, citing persistent inflation risks [7]. - The "centrists" favoring a cautious approach of one rate cut followed by observation [7]. - This division complicates the outlook for future monetary policy, making it difficult to predict subsequent actions after a potential September cut [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The possibility of a "one-and-done" scenario, where only a single rate cut occurs, remains a viable option due to the internal tensions within the Fed [8]. - Future monetary policy decisions will heavily depend on upcoming employment and inflation data, which will influence the Fed's internal dynamics [9]. - The next FOMC meeting will be crucial as it will provide updated economic forecasts and insights into the Fed's future rate path, which may be more significant than the immediate decision on a rate cut [9].

"买方真空"风险显现 日债收益率迭创新高 ◎记者 陈佳怡 黄冰玉 自5月"惊雷"乍响之后，日债就如同打开了"潘多拉魔盒"：长期限日本国债收益率短暂回落后持续攀 升，并在近日创下阶段性新高。 分析人士认为，日本财政赤字风险与政策不确定性共振致使日债投资者"望而却步"，叠加日本央行缩减 购债规模计划所导致的供需失衡矛盾仍在，日债短期内持续承压。鉴于日债市场风险警报尚未解除，日 本央行货币政策路径调整仍维持谨慎步伐。 日债收益率节节攀升 财政隐忧"绊住"投资者 分析认为，日债持续承压的直接原因在于供需两端的不匹配，其本质是日本财政的隐忧令部分投资 者"望而却步"。 据报道，在7月20日举行的日本第27届参议院选举中，由自民党和公明党组成的执政联盟丧失参议院过 半数议席。这是自民党自1955年成立以来，首次在国会众参两院都未能取得过半数席位。 这场选举结果，直接将日本财政政策推向"宽松加码"的预期漩涡，加剧了市场对日本债务问题的担 忧。"当前日本国债收益率持续攀升，在一定程度上受财政赤字风险与政策不确定性共振影响。"东方金 诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪表示，投资者担忧，若执政联盟为稳选情转向财政扩张，日本国债的风险 溢 ...

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's recent reduction in its stake in Apple has attracted significant market attention, interpreted as a rational move for risk management and portfolio rebalancing rather than a bearish signal [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The sale contradicts Buffett's investment principle of "hold means buy, sell means bearish," suggesting that any sell decision indicates a less favorable risk-reward ratio for the asset at current prices [2][4] - Selling part of a position implies that the investor believes the stock's attractiveness has diminished compared to other potential investments [3][4] Group 2: Portfolio Composition - The sale is viewed as a portfolio rebalancing action due to Apple's significant share in Berkshire's holdings, which accounted for $66.639 billion or 25.8% of the portfolio [5][6] - Berkshire's total publicly traded stock holdings amount to over $250 billion, with substantial non-public assets, including insurance and utility companies, which are not detailed in the public market holdings [8][9] Group 3: Market Signals - Despite the small scale of the reduction, it signals potential concerns regarding Apple, especially when compared to other long-held positions like American Express and Coca-Cola, which have never been reduced [12][13] - Factors contributing to this concern include policy uncertainties and Apple's current valuation, which has risen significantly, reducing its attractiveness compared to historical levels [14][19][22] Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Apple's valuation has increased to a P/E ratio of 35, compared to 10-15 during Berkshire's initial investment, leading to lower expected future returns and increased sensitivity to negative news [21][22] - The company's market share in the U.S. smartphone market has fluctuated, indicating potential limits to its growth, which may not justify its high valuation [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's recent reduction in its stake in Apple has sparked significant market attention, interpreted as a rational move for risk management and portfolio rebalancing rather than a bearish signal [2][4] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The sale of Apple shares contradicts Warren Buffett's investment philosophy of "buy and hold," suggesting that the current risk-reward ratio for Apple is no longer optimal [2][3] - Selling part of a position indicates that the investor believes the stock's attractiveness has diminished compared to other potential investments [3] Group 2: Portfolio Composition - Apple represents a substantial portion of Berkshire's portfolio, accounting for $66.639 billion, or 25.8% of total holdings [5] - Despite the reduction, Apple's weight in the overall portfolio is not excessively high when considering Berkshire's total assets, which include significant non-public holdings [9][7] Group 3: Market Signals - The small scale of the reduction sends a clear signal that there are concerns regarding Apple, particularly in light of policy uncertainties and valuation issues [10][11] - Policy uncertainties include potential increases in capital gains tax, which could impact future investment decisions [12][14] Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Apple's valuation has increased significantly, with its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio rising to 35, making it less attractive compared to the past when it was around 10-15 [16] - The current high valuation requires sustained high growth, which may be challenging given recent fluctuations in market share [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - A seemingly technical tariff adjustment by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has triggered significant turmoil in the global gold market, highlighting the fragility of the gold supply chain and the impact of policy uncertainty on market confidence [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the tariff announcement, the premium of New York gold futures over London spot prices surged to $125 per ounce, reflecting market panic over potential supply chain disruptions [7]. - New York gold prices reached a historic high of $3534.10 per ounce, while London prices remained stable around $3396.04, indicating a significant price disparity [7]. - Historical data shows that when the COMEX futures premium exceeds 2%, it has previously led to strong price recoveries in the spot market within 1-3 weeks, as seen in April 2020 [7]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The White House intervened shortly after the market reaction, labeling the CBP's tariff decision as "misinformation," which indicates internal policy confusion and has led to a rapid decline in gold prices [9][10]. - The inconsistency between government agencies has heightened market uncertainty, raising questions about the reliability of U.S. policy [12][13]. Group 3: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - Approximately 90% of industrial gold is refined in Switzerland, making it a critical hub in the global gold supply chain, which is now seen as overly concentrated and vulnerable to geopolitical risks [4][12]. - The recent events may prompt a reevaluation of the reliance on a single refining center, potentially leading to a more diversified supply network in the future [15]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - The turmoil has led to a shift in sentiment among investment institutions, with even traditionally bearish firms like Citigroup adjusting their gold price targets upward to $3500 per ounce [12]. - The current climate of policy uncertainty may enhance gold's status as a safe-haven asset, as investors seek stability amid fluctuating market conditions [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the mild increase in U.S. inflation for July has preserved the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, impacting the dollar and supporting precious metal prices [1][3]. Market Overview - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July remained unchanged year-on-year at 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to a five-month high of 3.1% [3]. - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve surged to 93.4%, which is expected to weaken the dollar's attractiveness and support precious metal prices [3]. Political Influence - Former President Trump has pressured Fed Chair Powell to cut rates and threatened legal action, while Treasury Secretary Mnuchin advocates for a 50 basis point cut in September [3]. - There are mixed views among officials, with some expressing concerns about inflation and unemployment balance, which may create policy uncertainty [3]. Trading Strategy - Precious metals are expected to continue a volatile pattern in the short term, with COMEX gold likely to find support around $3,350 and trade near $3,400 [4]. - COMEX silver should be monitored for support at the $37 level, with potential opportunities remaining in the context of ongoing rate cut expectations [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods due to India's continued purchase of Russian energy, raising the total tariff rate to 50% [1] - Following the announcement, the iShares MSCI India ETF dropped to an intraday low, while oil prices increased, and the Indian Rupee stabilized at 87.91 against the U.S. dollar [1] - This tariff increase is part of Trump's strategy to reduce trade deficits, revitalize domestic manufacturing, and increase federal revenue, which poses risks to the global economy, including rising costs and potential supply chain disruptions [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating an 87% probability following a weak employment report [2] - The dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chief by Trump has further heightened policy uncertainty [2] - Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is expected to perform strongly in the context of increased political and economic uncertainty and a low-interest-rate environment [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are projected to have room for growth, with a short-term target of $3,400, supported by ongoing tariff tensions, economic slowdown, and inflation concerns, as well as a weak dollar [3] Group 4 - The daily direction for gold (XAUUSD) is showing a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 3384, 3362, and 3410, and support levels at 3373, 3357, and 3344 [4] - The momentum for gold is strong, with a quantitative cycle exceeding three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [4] Group 5 - The daily direction for the Euro against the U.S. dollar (EURUSD) is also showing a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 1.1692, 1.1731, and 1.1795, and support levels at 1.1637, 1.1590, and 1.1552 [5] - The momentum for EURUSD is moderate, with a quantitative cycle exceeding three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [5]

Group 1 - The core issue affecting global economic growth is the long-term decline in corporate investment, which has not recovered to pre-crisis levels after the financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic [1] - OECD data shows that the median net investment of OECD countries as a percentage of GDP has dropped from approximately 2.5% before the 2008 financial crisis to 1.6% currently, with the pandemic further exacerbating this decline [1][2] - Only Israel and Portugal have exceeded pre-financial crisis investment levels, while only six countries, including Canada, Italy, and Australia, have higher investment levels than before the pandemic [2] Group 2 - Policy uncertainty is identified as a major factor discouraging corporate investment, with various global events such as trade policies, the pandemic, and geopolitical conflicts contributing to this uncertainty [2] - A study by OECD indicates that a one standard deviation increase in policy uncertainty could lead to a 1 percentage point decrease in corporate investment growth within a year [2] - If the current high level of uncertainty persists, global actual investment is projected to shrink by an additional 1.4 percentage points by the end of next year [2] Group 3 - Despite strong growth in digital and knowledge-based investments, there is a concerning trend of weak physical asset investment, leading to a continuous decline in the ratio of net investment to GDP [3] - Many companies are prioritizing shareholder returns, such as dividends and stock buybacks, over capital investments, which is evident in various countries [3] - A notable example is the UK water industry, where over one-third of the funds were distributed as dividends instead of being reinvested in infrastructure improvements [3]