Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan has downgraded its rating on emerging market currencies from overweight to neutral [1] Group 1 - The decision reflects a shift in the bank's outlook on the performance of emerging market currencies [1] - This downgrade may impact investor sentiment and capital flows into emerging markets [1]

核心观点 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 6月全球大类资产总体表现为：全球股票（4.40%）>大宗商品（3.52%）>全球债券（1.89%）>人民币（0.49%）> 0%>美元（-2.47%）。 报告摘要 十张图速览全球资产脉络。 1、中东局势动荡下原油价格波动剧烈 。2025年6月，中东局势剧烈震荡，霍尔木兹海峡成为焦点，导致原油价格大幅上涨。霍尔木兹海峡位于伊朗与阿 曼之间，东接阿曼湾，西连波斯湾，是波斯湾石油通往印度洋的唯一出口，堪称全球能源贸易的咽喉。2024年全球石油及液体燃料消费量约1.027亿桶/ 日，其中74%通过海运，霍尔木兹海峡贸易量占全球消费量的20%、海运贸易的27%。然而，随着局势缓和，油价迅速回落，反映市场对供应中断担忧的 消退。 2、美股七巨头与2年期美债利率从同步转为背离 。2025年6月，美股七巨头与2年期美债利率走势从同步转为背离，如何理解这种变化？2025年1-5月，2 年期美债收益率下降被市场解读为经济衰退信号，投资者担忧经济增长放缓，导致美股七巨头随利率同步下跌 ...

Group 1 - The Chilean peso has depreciated by 0.9%, marking it as the second largest decline among emerging market currencies [1]

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies declined on Friday due to heightened tensions from U.S. President Trump's trade policies, but are still expected to rise for the fifth consecutive week [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is projected to increase by 0.2% this week, despite a drop on Friday following Trump's threat to impose tariffs as high as 70% on certain trading partners [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index fell by 0.5% on Friday, marking the largest decline in nearly two weeks, yet it maintained weekly gains [1] Group 2 - TSMC and Tencent Holdings were among the stocks that experienced the largest declines [1]

美国就业数据公布后，新兴市场货币指数回吐涨幅。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian real has depreciated by 1% against the US dollar, leading the decline among emerging market currencies [1] Group 1 - The depreciation of the Brazilian real indicates a potential weakness in the Brazilian economy compared to other emerging markets [1] - The movement in the currency may affect foreign investment and trade dynamics in Brazil [1]

新兴市场货币指数刷新日高，美联储主席鲍威尔在听证会上谈及2025年降息的可能性。 ...

鲍威尔发表证词，新兴市场货币指数触及盘中高点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - During Powell's testimony, the emerging market currency index reached a daily high [1] Group 1 - The emerging market currency index showed positive movement, indicating potential investor confidence in these markets [1]

Group 1 - Asian markets opened lower on Monday, with both currencies and stock markets declining due to heightened investor panic following the U.S. attack on Iran, which has raised concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies [1] - The South Korean won led the decline among Asian currencies, contributing to a 0.3% drop in the Bloomberg Asian Dollar Index, while the Indonesian rupiah also weakened, prompting the central bank to intervene in the market [1] - Brent crude oil prices are nearing $80 per barrel, leading to inflationary pressures globally and impacting economic growth, particularly for net oil-importing Asian currencies [1] Group 2 - The 30-day correlation between Brent crude futures and the Asian Dollar Spot Index has reached -0.45, the most negative since March 2022, indicating potential risk linkage effects [2] - According to Wells Fargo, the Indian rupee, South Korean won, Thai baht, and Philippine peso are likely to be the most affected currencies, with concentrated long positions in the won and baht potentially leading to short-term weakness [2] - Concerns over the U.S. potentially revoking export exemptions for technology to China have led to significant sell-offs in chip stocks, particularly impacting the Taiwanese stock market [2]