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新兴市场货币回落 市场关注焦点从乌克兰转向美联储
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 20:58
Core Viewpoint - Emerging market currencies experienced a slight decline as traders processed signs of progress in Ukraine peace negotiations while awaiting more insights on U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting in Jackson Hole [1] Group 1: Currency Market - The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index fell slightly, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline, influenced by the Brazilian real, Indonesian rupiah, and Colombian peso [1] - The U.S. dollar saw a modest increase amid low trading volumes as traders focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech to solidify their bets on a rate cut in September [1] Group 2: Stock Market - The index tracking emerging market stocks also experienced a slight decline, reflecting the overall negative sentiment in the currency market [1]
ATFX:美元重新展现韧性,削弱新兴市场货币吸引力
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-14 17:31
Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has shown resilience recently, with a 3.4% increase in July, ending a streak of declines, despite a disappointing non-farm payroll report [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 2.7% in July, breaking a six-month downward trend [1] - Emerging market currencies, represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index, fell by 1.2% [1] - The Taiwanese dollar has appreciated approximately 9.5% this year, leading Asian currencies, while the South Korean won has risen nearly 6% [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The rebound of the dollar has led some emerging market investors to believe that the dollar will continue to rise in the coming months [1] - Barclays Bank has advised clients to avoid shorting the dollar against other Asian currencies [1] - Fidelity International noted that prolonged high US interest rates reduce the attractiveness of borrowing dollars for arbitrage trading [1] Group 3: Emerging Market Currency Dynamics - The volatility of emerging market currencies is at its lowest in a year, which diminishes demand for Asian currencies in favor of higher-yielding European and Latin American currencies [2] - The average interest rate differential for Asian currencies is negative 1.1%, indicating higher holding costs compared to potential returns from holding dollars [5] - Latin American currencies have a positive interest rate differential of 3.7%, while European and African currencies have a positive differential of 1.1% [5] Group 4: Market Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs continues to impact the attractiveness of emerging market currencies, despite some agreements reached with major trading partners [6] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a key factor influencing the dollar's trajectory [6]
新兴市场货币上涨,美联储官员讲话提振降息预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-06 15:49
Group 1 - Emerging market currencies continue their earlier upward trend, while stock market declines have narrowed due to comments from Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari, which have put pressure on the dollar and boosted risk appetite [1] - The MSCI index, which measures emerging market currencies, rose by 0.2%, with the Colombian peso and South African rand leading the gains [1] - Similar stock market indices experienced slight declines, indicating a mixed performance in the equity markets [1]
摩根士丹利:美元熊市已经结束了吗
摩根· 2025-08-05 03:16
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the end of the dollar bear market and highlights significant impacts from trade agreements involving over $600 billion in investments and $750 billion in U.S. energy procurement, which have notably influenced the foreign exchange market [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation and its focus on labor market reports suggest a potential rebound risk for the dollar if unemployment rates do not rise as expected [1][4] - Trade policy uncertainty is currently showing a positive change rate, indicating that if uncertainty decreases, the dollar may rise to levels suggested by yield differentials [6] - A reduction in oil imports from Russia could pressure the global oil market, raising oil prices and negatively impacting emerging market currencies, while potentially delaying Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, thus providing some support for the dollar [1][7] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach, awaiting more evidence on inflation to assess potential price level adjustments and their ripple effects [4] - If the unemployment rate does not rise as anticipated, the risk of a dollar rebound increases [4] - The Fed may need to implement two to three rate cuts by the end of 2026 to maintain a neutral policy stance [5] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The current positive change rate in trade policy uncertainty suggests that the worst may be over, and a reduction in uncertainty could lead to a dollar increase [6] - The negative impacts of tariffs are expected to manifest in the fourth quarter, potentially necessitating significant rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 to address economic slowdowns [6] Oil Price Movements - A decrease in oil imports from Russia could lead to higher global oil prices, adversely affecting emerging market currencies that are oil importers [7] - Recent increases in Brent crude oil prices from $68-69 per barrel to over $72 have contributed to the underperformance of currencies like the yen [7] - Typically, a strengthening dollar index results in corresponding depreciation of emerging market currencies, with the potential for further weakening if oil prices rise due to reduced imports from Russia [8]
摩根士丹利:跨资产市场观察美元走软,新兴市场走强
摩根· 2025-07-25 00:52
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on emerging market currencies such as Turkey, Egypt, Chile, and South Korea, which are expected to stabilize their currencies and attract capital inflows [4]. Core Insights - Despite strong recent employment data in the U.S., the GDP growth forecast for the end of 2025 is only 30 basis points, with a 40% chance of a mild recession, leading to a continued weakening of the dollar [1][2]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline to 4% by year-end, which will benefit fixed income products, including local bonds in emerging markets [1][5]. - A 1% change in the broad dollar index typically results in an additional inflow of $35-40 billion into emerging market local currency indices [5]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report predicts a weak global economy and trade tensions impacting emerging market currencies, but highlights potential strength in specific countries with significant domestic reforms [1][4]. - The dollar's recent rebound is attributed to short positions and strong employment data, but this is expected to fade over time [2]. Emerging Market Currencies - The euro is projected to approach 1.20 against the dollar by the end of 2025, with potential for further appreciation [3]. - Countries like Turkey, Egypt, Chile, and South Korea are identified as having strong currencies due to domestic reforms [4]. Fixed Income Market - The anticipated decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar are expected to support local bond markets in emerging economies [5]. - Historical data suggests that significant capital inflows could return to emerging markets if the U.S. economy slows while the Eurozone maintains growth [5].
美元走软,新兴市场货币收复部分跌势,墨西哥比索兑美元触及盘中最高点。
news flash· 2025-07-16 15:00
Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has weakened, allowing emerging market currencies to recover some of their losses, with the Mexican peso reaching its highest point against the dollar during the trading session [1] Group 1 - The Mexican peso has appreciated against the US dollar, indicating a positive movement for the currency [1]
新兴市场货币和股票触及盘中新低。
news flash· 2025-07-16 13:49
Core Viewpoint - Emerging market currencies and stocks have reached intraday lows, indicating significant market stress and potential volatility in these regions [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - Emerging market currencies are experiencing a decline, reflecting broader economic challenges and investor sentiment [1] - The depreciation of these currencies may impact trade balances and foreign investment inflows [1] Group 2: Stock Market Trends - Stocks in emerging markets are also hitting new lows, suggesting a bearish outlook among investors [1] - This downturn could lead to increased capital outflows as investors seek safer assets [1]
摩根大通将新兴市场货币评级由超配降至持平。
news flash· 2025-07-08 10:45
Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan has downgraded its rating on emerging market currencies from overweight to neutral [1] Group 1 - The decision reflects a shift in the bank's outlook on the performance of emerging market currencies [1] - This downgrade may impact investor sentiment and capital flows into emerging markets [1]
智利比索下跌0.9%,为新兴市场货币中第二大跌幅。
news flash· 2025-07-07 12:52
Group 1 - The Chilean peso has depreciated by 0.9%, marking it as the second largest decline among emerging market currencies [1]
新兴市场货币仍有望连续第五周上涨
news flash· 2025-07-04 18:27
Group 1 - Emerging market currencies declined on Friday due to heightened tensions from U.S. President Trump's trade policies, but are still expected to rise for the fifth consecutive week [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is projected to increase by 0.2% this week, despite a drop on Friday following Trump's threat to impose tariffs as high as 70% on certain trading partners [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index fell by 0.5% on Friday, marking the largest decline in nearly two weeks, yet it maintained weekly gains [1] Group 2 - TSMC and Tencent Holdings were among the stocks that experienced the largest declines [1]