高市早苗于今年十月成为新一任日本首相。我们认为，她的经济政策"早苗经济学"由三大支柱构成： 1）重视国家危机管理与经济增长；2）以应对通胀为核心的扩张性财政政策；3）主张政府负责货币政 策，而日本央行应决定最佳工具的方针。她强调价格目标应通过需求拉动型通胀而非成本推动型通胀来 实现。 虽然预计今年第三季度GDP将出现大幅下滑，但内需仍保持一定韧性。 目前核心CPI通胀率（不含生鲜食品）约为同比3%。然而，随着食品价格回落以及政策措施的下行压 力，我们预计通胀率将在2026年降至2%以下。此后，到2027年，通胀率可能会再次逐步上升至2%。 森田京平博士，野村日本首席经济学家 我们预计日本经济增长将受关税影响而放缓，但仍可避免衰退。 我们认为日本央行行长植田和男的政策立场与高市早苗的立场相符，因为植田和男在衡量潜在通胀时区 分了成本推动型和需求拉动型通胀。植田和男无需在新政府上任后调整政策立场，因此我们维持先前预 期：即日本央行将在2026年一月加息，随后暂停一年，并于2027年再加息两次。 ...

Economic Growth - The US economy is expected to show moderate growth in 2026, driven by continued technology investment from the AI boom and a recovery in traditional investment demand [1] - The Eurozone is likely to see a rebound in consumer spending as external trade shocks diminish, although industrial supply chain risks remain [1] - Japan's corporate sales growth is slowing, with business investment expected to maintain momentum but not accelerate significantly [1] Inflation - The US inflation rate is projected to experience slight fluctuations and moderate cooling, with tariff impacts diminishing and stable rental inflation [2] - The Eurozone has entered a healthy and moderate inflation environment, which is expected to continue into next year [2] - Japan's new cabinet's gasoline tax reforms are anticipated to suppress the apparent inflation rate, although demand-driven inflation may remain robust [2] Monetary Policy - The next Federal Reserve chair is expected to be between Waller and Hassett, with a potential 50bps rate cut early next year under Powell's leadership [3] - The European Central Bank is not expected to cut rates due to stable inflation, maintaining a deposit facility rate of 2% [3] - The Bank of Japan may raise rates by 25bps in the next quarter, maintaining a policy rate of 0.75% thereafter [3] Fiscal Policy - The effects of the US "Great Beautiful Act" are expected to manifest in early 2026, supporting overall consumption despite potential widening of wealth gaps [4] - The EU's fiscal stance is becoming neutral, characterized by continued defense expansion and restrained non-defense spending [4] - Japan's new Prime Minister Suga advocates for "responsible active fiscal policy," leading to moderate fiscal expansion [4] Asset Allocation - Market concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the credibility of the US dollar may ease under Waller's leadership, impacting gold negatively and slightly increasing long-term US Treasury yields [5] - If Hassett is elected, the dollar may weaken, benefiting gold, while long-term Treasury yields could rise due to inflation expectations [5] - The overall outlook for US stocks remains positive, driven by the AI trend, while demand recovery is expected to boost gold and industrial metals [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of "Sanae Economics" under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, drawing parallels with "Abenomics" and highlighting potential economic challenges Japan may face, including a booming stock market but stagnant equipment investment [1][2][4]. Economic Policy Overview - Takaichi aims to lead Japan out of the "lost 30 years" since 1993, focusing on rebuilding Japan's economic resilience and prosperity [2]. - "Sanae Economics" is seen as an evolution of "Abenomics," with a focus on bold monetary easing, flexible fiscal policies, and crisis management investments [5][6]. Investment Trends - Japan's substantial investment in the U.S. is highlighted, with a commitment of $550 billion (approximately 85 trillion yen) aimed at bolstering U.S. manufacturing and supporting anti-China policies [7][8]. - The projected equipment investment for 2024 is 98.3 trillion yen, indicating a significant increase from 2020, yet concerns remain about Japan's domestic investment capacity [7]. International Relations - Takaichi's administration emphasizes the importance of a constructive relationship with China while addressing economic security concerns, suggesting a complex diplomatic balancing act [10][11]. - The article notes that Japan's investment strategy may lead to missed opportunities domestically, as funds are directed towards the U.S. rather than local manufacturing [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of Sanna Takashi as Japan's first female Prime Minister and her economic policy termed "Sanna Economics," which aims to revitalize Japan's economy after decades of stagnation. The article highlights the potential implications of her policies on Japan's economic relations with the US and China [2][3]. Economic Policy Overview - Sanna Takashi's "Sanna Economics" is seen as an evolution of Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics," focusing on bold monetary easing, flexible fiscal policies, and significant crisis management investments [6][7]. - The policy aims to address Japan's economic stagnation since 1993, with a goal of restoring Japan's position in the global economy [3][6]. Investment Relations with the US - Japan plans to invest $55 billion (approximately 8.5 trillion yen) in the US by 2027, which is a significant commitment that raises concerns about Japan's domestic investment capabilities [10][12]. - The investment will cover various sectors, including energy, artificial intelligence, and critical mineral production, with major Japanese companies expressing interest in participating [10][12]. Economic Security and Relations with China - Sanna Takashi emphasizes economic security, particularly concerning China, proposing legal measures to restrict foreign investments and protect Japanese technology [7][15]. - Despite a hardline stance, she acknowledges the importance of a constructive relationship with China, suggesting a need for dialogue while addressing security concerns [15][16]. Historical Context and Public Perception - The article notes that public sentiment towards "Sanna Economics" is skeptical, drawing parallels to the previous disappointment with "Abenomics," which failed to deliver substantial economic recovery [8][16]. - The historical context of Japan's economic performance, including GDP fluctuations and stock market trends, is highlighted to illustrate the challenges ahead for Takashi's administration [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The new Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, faces a dilemma regarding the depreciating yen, which has reached an 8-month low, risking imported inflation while trying to support exports [1][3]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation and Economic Impact - The yen has entered a depreciation phase, with the Bank of Japan maintaining its benchmark interest rate, disappointing investors and causing the yen to drop to 154.17 against the dollar [3]. - The Japanese government is increasingly concerned about the yen's depreciation, with the new Finance Minister warning of a heightened urgency to monitor the exchange rate, indicating a potential for direct intervention [3][4]. - Historical context shows that the Japanese authorities intervened in the forex market when the yen depreciated significantly, suggesting that current conditions may warrant similar actions [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Inflation - Economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points by March 2026, driven by ongoing inflation pressures from the yen's depreciation [5]. - Recent data indicates that Japan's core consumer prices rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, exceeding the central bank's target and highlighting the inflationary challenges posed by the yen's decline [6]. - The continuous depreciation of the yen is exacerbating imported inflation, which is putting pressure on the cost of living for Japanese citizens [6][7]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - Takaichi's proposed economic policies, termed "Sanae Economics," are seen as a continuation of Abenomics, focusing on expansionary fiscal measures and loose monetary policy to stimulate demand [5][7]. - While these policies may provide short-term economic growth and boost market confidence, they also pose long-term risks, including increased government debt and potential financial instability [7]. - The current economic environment is characterized by a complex interplay between the need for monetary tightening due to inflation and the government's expansionary fiscal stance, complicating the Bank of Japan's policy decisions [6][7].

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the implications of long-term interest rates exceeding 2% on market operations, drawing on international comparisons to identify patterns and trends [8] - It explores the concept of "Sanae Economics" as a potential evolution of Abenomics, highlighting key differences in macroeconomic frameworks and policy approaches [11] - The article analyzes the recent decline in fixed asset investment growth, examining the reasons behind the downturn and the potential impact of incremental policy measures [12] Group 1: In-depth Topics - The study on long-term interest rates exceeding 2% indicates significant shifts in market behavior, influenced by global economic conditions and policy responses [8] - The analysis of "Sanae Economics" reveals a shift from monetary to fiscal dominance, with a focus on government-led investments in strategic sectors such as semiconductors and defense [11] - The article emphasizes the need for a robust response to the decline in fixed asset investment, suggesting that targeted policies could help stimulate growth [12] Group 2: Hot Topics - The examination of "Sanae Economics" contrasts it with Abenomics, noting the differences in crisis management and economic security strategies [11] - The article highlights the comprehensive decline in various investment sectors, including infrastructure, services, manufacturing, and real estate, indicating a broad-based economic slowdown [13] - The discussion on the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the prioritization of optimizing traditional industries and accelerating technological modernization to enhance competitiveness [16][18] Group 3: Data Insights - The article presents data showing a significant drop in fixed asset investment growth rates across multiple sectors, reflecting a challenging economic environment [13] - It notes that the September profit figures showed an upward trend, but when adjusted for low base effects, they remained below historical averages, indicating ongoing cost pressures [26] - The analysis of the October PMI suggests underlying demand weakness, with inventory levels negatively impacting production indices [30]

Core Insights - The article discusses the implications of long-term interest rates exceeding 2% and the resulting market dynamics based on international comparisons [8] - It explores the concept of "Sanae Economics" as a potential evolution of Abenomics, highlighting key differences in macroeconomic frameworks and policy approaches [11] - The article analyzes the significant decline in fixed asset investment growth since mid-year and the comprehensive downturn across various sectors [12] Group 1: Deep Dive Topics - The deep dive topic examines the market behavior following the breach of the 2% long-term interest rate threshold, utilizing cross-country comparisons to draw insights [8] - It emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of how such interest rate changes affect different market segments and investment strategies [8] Group 2: Hot Topics - "Sanae Economics" is characterized as distinct from Abenomics, focusing on fiscal leadership versus monetary policy, and addressing deflation versus inflation [11] - The article outlines the strategic focus on government-led investments in critical sectors such as semiconductors, AI, and defense under the new economic framework [11] - It highlights the importance of crisis management and economic security in shaping future economic policies [11] Group 3: Investment Trends - The article identifies a marked decline in fixed asset investment growth, with all major sectors, including infrastructure, services, manufacturing, and real estate, experiencing downturns [12][13] - It questions whether incremental policy measures can effectively stimulate investment and reverse the current trend [12] Group 4: Policy Signals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes optimizing traditional industries and adopting extraordinary measures for technological modernization [16][18] - It outlines the necessity for a modernized industrial system as a foundation for China's economic strategy, focusing on enhancing competitiveness in traditional sectors while fostering emerging industries [18][19]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, during its first policy meeting under newly appointed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida [1] - Despite the decision to keep rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive time, there were internal disagreements within the BOJ, with two policy members voting in favor of a rate hike, indicating that an increase could occur as early as December [1] - The dissenting members, Naoki Tamura and Haruhiko Kuroda, argued that rising inflation risks necessitate a closer alignment of the policy rate to neutral levels, suggesting a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% [1] Group 2 - Prime Minister Kishida's economic policy, termed "Kishida Economics," emphasizes fiscal measures while potentially calling for looser monetary policy to support Japan's fragile economy [2] - Japan is currently facing a complex economic environment characterized by high inflation and significant debt burdens [2] - The BOJ's decision followed a report showing a rise in Japan's core consumer prices, which increased by 2.9% year-on-year in September, surpassing the BOJ's target of 2% [2] - The BOJ adjusted its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 0.6% to 0.7%, reiterating that it would continue to raise the benchmark rate if economic and price conditions align with expectations [2]

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - US CPI data shows inflation easing, with September CPI rising 3.0% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.0%, both below market expectations[14] - Market anticipates a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, with expectations of two more cuts in 2025 and three in 2026[14] - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating economic resilience amid the resumption of US-China trade talks[11] Group 2: Market Performance - US stock indices saw overall gains, with technology stocks leading, while Netflix shares dropped over 10% due to tax issues in Brazil[14] - A-shares in China showed strong performance, particularly in the technology sector, driven by policy expectations from the "15th Five-Year Plan"[11] - European markets faced volatility, with the PMI improving to 52.2, but concerns over internal weaknesses in France and geopolitical tensions led to market pullbacks[16] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Multi-asset FOF portfolio suggests a composition of 60% equities, 30% fixed income, and 10% commodities, with an annualized return of 37%[35] - Investors are advised to focus on equity funds due to rising market risk appetite and potential opportunities from the "15th Five-Year Plan"[40] - Recommendations include maintaining a portion of gold in portfolios due to expected support from multiple factors including Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar[40]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market has surpassed the 50,000-point mark for the first time in 75 years, driven by factors such as corporate earnings growth, low valuations, and expectations of continued fiscal expansion under the new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida [2][4]. Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index closed at 50,512.32 points, up 2.46% or 1,212.67 points, marking a significant increase of over 1,700 points in just one week [2][3]. - Other Asia-Pacific markets also showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.18%, the Hang Seng Index up 1.05%, and the KOSPI index up 2.57% [3]. Factors Driving the Market - Four key factors are identified as driving the Japanese stock market: 1. Growth in corporate earnings and attractive valuations compared to U.S. stocks [4]. 2. Loose monetary policy and yen depreciation benefiting export companies [4]. 3. Market expectations of Kishida's expansionary fiscal policies [4]. 4. External positive factors, including reduced uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs [4]. Economic Policy and Market Sentiment - Kishida's economic policies, termed "Kishida Economics," are expected to focus on expansionary policies and addressing inflation, which has led to increased market optimism [4][10]. - The market is currently experiencing a "high market trading" phenomenon, where rising stock prices are inversely related to the yen's value [6][7]. Inflation and Currency Concerns - The yen has depreciated significantly, with the exchange rate dropping below 153 yen per dollar, raising concerns about imported inflation [7][8]. - Japan's core consumer prices rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target and indicating persistent inflationary pressures [7][8]. Risks and Future Outlook - The Bank of Japan has warned of overheating in the stock market, raising concerns about potential market corrections due to external uncertainties [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that if the stock market continues to rise sharply, it may lead to increased price-to-earnings ratios, creating a risk of bubble formation [6][10]. - The future trajectory of the stock market may be influenced by structural reforms and the ability of Kishida's administration to navigate economic challenges [9][10].