以史为鉴，白酒板块现在处于什么阶段？20250724 摘要 白酒板块前期上涨受益于耐心资本对高股息标的的偏好，五粮液、泸州 老窖、洋河等龙头企业因其较高的 ROE 和分红率受到青睐。雅砻江水电 站启动带动基建题材升温，与基建关联性强的白酒板块也因此受益。 当前白酒板块所处位置类似于 2024 年下半年，但又嵌套了 1998 年的 特征。2025 年禁酒令对公务用酒的全面限制影响深远，中低端白酒也 受到显著影响。行业已进入主动去库存阶段，并可能处于后期。 茅台批价走势与 2014 年后半段相似，每月同比下滑幅度约 20%，需要 政策带动高端消费以促进库存去化。当前经济正处于新旧势能切换阶段， 调整周期可能比 2014 年更长。 自 2000 年以来，白酒行业经历了四个完整周期，受外部产业政策压制 影响的周期调整时间更长，调整深度更深。目前这一轮调整相比 14 年 更加复杂，人口结构变化及新兴产业崛起对传统商务饮用场景产生长期 影响。 2012 年至 2014 年的调整受到房地产政策收紧、八项规定和限三公消 费政策的影响，高端及次高端白酒企业净利润显著下滑。库存问题也加 剧了这一调整，高端及次高端白酒库存达到历史 ...

重要信号！沪指强势冲上3600点，这是自2024年10月8日以来首次突破这一整数关口。作为"行情旗 手"，券商带头猛涨，截至发稿，国盛金控涨停，国信证券涨超6%，哈投股份涨超5%，广发证券涨超 4%，华泰证券、中信证券等涨幅居前。 | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | | 涨跌 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 002670 | 国盛金控 | | 16:12 | 141 | 10.03% | | 2 | 002736 | 国信证券 | | 13.28 | 0.84 | 6.75% | | 3 | 600864 | 哈投股份 | | 6.99 | 0.34 | 5.11% | | 4 | 000776 | 广发证券 | | 19.62 | 0.83 | 4.42% | | 5 1 | 601688 | 华泰证券 | | 19.70 | 0.69 | 3.63% | | 6 | 600030 | 中信证券 | | 29.82 | 0.89 | 3.08% | | 7 | 601162 | 天风证券 | | 5.00 ...

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Group 1 - The construction and infrastructure sectors are expected to improve in terms of market sentiment, with a notable increase in orders from state-owned construction enterprises in the second quarter [1] - The issuance of new local government special bonds reached 54.29% of the total planned for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.94 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 490.45% in July [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a work plan to stabilize growth in the building materials sector, which is anticipated to alleviate supply-demand conflicts in the cement industry under the anti-involution policy [1] Group 2 - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the construction sector is at a historical low of 8.53 times, while the infrastructure sub-sector has a valuation of 7.58 times, indicating potential for recovery [1] - The China Infrastructure ETF (159619) tracks the CSI Infrastructure Index (930608), which includes listed companies involved in construction, building materials, and engineering machinery, reflecting the overall performance of the infrastructure sector [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Infrastructure ETF Initiated Link C (016837) and Guotai CSI Infrastructure ETF Initiated Link A (016836) [1]

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 万丽, CFA, FRM wanli@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5331 从公布业绩预告的券商来看，2 季度业绩仍保持强劲增长，增速超我们预 期。目前已有 24 家 A 股上市券商发布中报业绩预告，2025 年上半年盈利 同比增长区间在 65%-80%（扣除合并产生的负商誉），平均增长 72%；2 季度环比 1 季度增长 13%。从头部券商来看，国泰海通同比增长超 200% （扣除合并产生的负商誉后约为41%），银河同比增长45-55%，中金同比 增长 55-78%，中信建投同比增长 55-60%。 我们预计上半年经纪业务在去年同期低基数上显著回升。2025 年上半年 A 股日均成交金额为 1.36 万亿元，同比增长 58.8%，其中 1 季度同比增长 68.7%，2 季度同比增长 50.1%。 3 季度仍面临低基数，预计增速将进一步 提升。 我们预计自营投资收益同比显著增长，仍是券商盈利增长的主要推动因 素。从股票市场指数表现来看，上半年总体表现较为平稳，相比 2024 年 同期改善显著，沪深 300 基本较年初持平，上证综指微涨 2.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a "valuation reversal," with H-shares transitioning from long-term discounts to premiums, particularly highlighted by the strong performance of leading innovative drug company Heng Rui Medicine, whose H-shares have shown a premium of over 20% compared to A-shares [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A+H pharmaceutical stocks have seen a significant shift in pricing logic, with the discount on Hong Kong stocks narrowing and some leading companies even turning to a premium [1][5]. - As of July 14, 2025, five companies, including Heng Rui Medicine, have reported positive premiums for their H-shares compared to A-shares, indicating a broader trend in the market [2][3]. - Heng Rui Medicine's H-shares have increased by over 29% since May 23, while A-shares have only risen by 10.19%, leading to a notable premium [4]. Group 2: Valuation Factors - The narrowing of discounts and the emergence of premiums in Hong Kong pharmaceutical stocks are attributed to the acceleration of innovation capabilities and the realization of value in the sector [7]. - The influx of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks, particularly in leading companies like Heng Rui Medicine, has contributed to the narrowing of the long-standing price gap between A-shares and H-shares [7][8]. - The improvement of the Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism has facilitated easier access for mainland institutional investors to invest in H-shares, enhancing liquidity and demand [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The trend indicates a potential long-term separation in the performance of H-shares, with companies that have strong internationalization and technological advantages likely to maintain premiums of 20%-30% [9][10]. - Companies that fail to innovate or adapt may face further valuation declines, leading to a market environment where stronger firms thrive while weaker ones are consolidated [9][10]. - The shift in valuation from liquidity-based pricing to value assessment based on global competitiveness is expected to reshape investor perceptions and enhance the attractiveness of Chinese pharmaceutical innovations [11].

智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，2025年6月社零数据增速环比回落，主要与618活动错期、部 分地区国补政策控制以及可选消费和餐饮收入下滑有关。下半年关税和出口仍有不确定性，内需相关政 策或有可能择时推出，食品饮料板块有望受益。细分板块看，当前白酒预期较低，连续回调后估值已在 低位，同时基金持仓白酒比例连续回落，筹码结构也相对较好，下半年随着板块进入底部位置，应有布 局机会。大众品板块在新消费标的中寻找符合产业发展趋势的优质公司并长期持有。 开源证券主要观点如下： 月度观察：6月社零增速环比回落，餐饮及可选消费增速下滑 2025年6月社会消费品零售总额同比+4.8%，增速环比5月-1.6pct，6月社零增速放缓，一是5月提前开启 618活动，6月同比有一定错期因素影响;二是部分地区在6月对国补政策进行控制，部分耐用品增速回 落;三是可选消费和餐饮收入下滑。2025年6月餐饮及限额以上餐饮收入同比分别+0.9%、-0.4%，增速环 比5月分别-5.0pct、-5.2pct，餐饮消费承压明显，一方面6月外卖平台加大补贴，影响餐饮实收金额，另 一方面八项规定等政策出台，宴请、聚餐等消费场景缺失较多。细分子行 ...

橡胶板块2025年07月第2周报 大宗商品研究所 潘盛杰 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 总结 GALAXYFUTURES 1 ◼ 本周新增焦点：橡胶板块估值、烟片胶基差，以及对EUDR的展望。 ◼ 周四，橡胶板块强势上涨。传可能得原因是烟片收储、东南亚暴雨、EUDR的执行。对于收储和暴雨，时间点和数据变化均不符合。而对于EUDR，一方面没 有收集到相关信息，另一方面从欧洲逐渐淡化了环保力度看，也不太可能提前执行EUDR政策。那么回头看橡胶本身的估值：在经过了周四的大幅上涨后，橡 胶板块在商品中的排名并没有明显提升，说明上涨是普遍现象，属于宏观因素。 ◼ 本周宏观环境呈现多重积极变化，为资本市场企稳向好奠定了基础。首先，外部环境方面，全球贸易摩擦强度持续减弱，关税战相关不确定性显著降低，为国 内经济复苏创造了更稳定的外部条件。其次，国内政策层面，货币政策保持稳健基调，结构性工具精准发力，产业政策聚焦高质量发展，对科技创新和绿色转 型的支持路径清晰，增强了政策预期的稳定性。 ◼ 不过，从合成橡胶的角度，上下游高频数据表现良好。丁二烯与顺丁橡胶环比减产、累库，下游轮胎开工回升、库存去化。故周内BR-RU价差继 ...

金十数据7月14日讯，中信证券表示，7月以来，银行板块相对大盘超额收益明显，个股结合估值水平和 估值分位数来看，有明显的低估值品种补涨特征。下周步入大行分红季，短期资金面博弈情绪加强，且 机构存在个股间调仓行为。由于重估银行净资产的逻辑尚未充分演绎，短时波动下，预计银行板块3季 度仍将延续上行格局。盈利预期看，由于1季度的贷款重定价效应充分、且债市在2季度相对稳定，预计 银行上半年盈利同比增速将企稳恢复。 中信证券：预计银行板块3季度仍将延续上行格局 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the lithium battery industry [1][5]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector has shown significant growth, with the index rising 15.16% in June 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 2.18% [5][9]. - In June 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.329 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.69% and a month-on-month increase of 1.68% [5][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upstream raw material prices, monthly sales, and developments in solid-state battery technology [5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The lithium battery index and new energy vehicle index both outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index in June 2025 [5][9]. - A total of 98 stocks in the lithium battery sector rose, with an average increase of 11.19% [9][11]. New Energy Vehicle Sales and Industry Prices - In June 2025, new energy vehicle sales in China accounted for 45.76% of total vehicle sales, marking a historical high for the month [16]. - The report projects continued growth in new energy vehicle sales, supported by favorable policies and improved cost-performance ratios [16][20]. Industry and Company News - The report highlights significant partnerships and developments in the industry, including LG Energy Solution's supply agreement with Chery Automobile for cylindrical batteries [55]. - Xiaomi's plans for electric vehicle production and the establishment of a new factory are also noted, indicating a growing interest in the electric vehicle market [55][58].