以下文章来源于做配置的小雪 ，作者做配置的小雪 曾经幻想暴富，现实变成暴负，投资只能慢慢变富～ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：做配置的小雪 来源：雪球 我从去年10月28日开始，在雪球通过三分法做资产配置，在当时遭到了很多质疑，很多朋友认为我太激进了，应该再等等。 结果一年过去了，评论区的画风变成了：牛市就这收益率不高啊。 和 牛市 比 收益率 ， 这叫相对收益思维 ， 但我的目标是追求绝对收益。 选相对收益还是绝对收益，投资策略不一样，投资结果也不同，今天和大家详细聊聊～ 一 、 如何理解相对收益和绝对收益？ 在投资中，关注自己实实在在赚了多少，是10%还是20%，这叫 绝对收益 。 相比大盘或基准跑赢了多少，这叫 相对收益 。 举个例子，投资A股， 绝对收益 想的是，不管牛市、熊市、震荡市，都要赚到钱。 而 相对收益 想的是能不能跑赢大盘，也就是牛市比大盘赚的多，熊市比大盘亏的少。 相对收益 想要跑赢大盘，靠的是有效的择时和择股能力。 做配置的小雪 . 绝对收益 想要穿越市场周期，靠的是策略和纪律，比如资产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The essence of investment is a combination of "science" and "art," where quantitative analysis handles objective market rules, while active management addresses the qualitative aspects that cannot be quantified [2][5]. Investment Philosophy - The focus of investment should be on achieving absolute returns rather than outperforming benchmarks, emphasizing the importance of making profitable trades [2][8]. - The "three-price scoring system" (buy price, extreme bottom price, sell price) is designed to control 60%-70% of market volatility, ensuring absolute returns while managing risks [3][9]. Investment Strategy - The investment approach includes dynamic adjustments based on quarterly earnings reports, allowing for long-term holding of growth stocks and strategic buying/selling of cyclical stocks [3][11]. - The system encourages disciplined behavior among fund managers, helping to mitigate irrational actions during market fluctuations [3][17]. Quantitative and Active Management Integration - The integration of quantitative models with fundamental analysis allows for a comprehensive investment strategy that captures market trends while maintaining a focus on fundamental value [6][18]. - The collaboration between quantitative and fundamental teams results in a robust modeling process that enhances investment decision-making [11][19]. Market Outlook - The current market environment is characterized by high volatility, necessitating a focus on pricing principles to achieve absolute returns [9][23]. - The expectation is for a stabilization in the market, supported by improved fundamentals, particularly in capital expenditure and export sectors [24][23]. Team Management and Culture - The management philosophy emphasizes rule-based guidance and collaboration among team members to enhance investment outcomes [26][28]. - The focus on absolute returns in performance evaluation encourages a culture of accountability and continuous improvement within the investment team [26][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the differences in risk and reward between fund managers and ordinary investors, highlighting that while fund managers may benefit from aggressive strategies, ordinary investors should focus on absolute returns to avoid long-term losses that could impact their purchasing power [3][5]. Group 1 - Ordinary investors take on greater risks without guaranteed rewards, unlike fund managers who can see significant performance boosts and income increases from aggressive strategies [3]. - Fund managers prioritize relative returns, aiming to outperform other funds, while ordinary investors should focus on absolute returns to ensure profitability [4][5]. - The article advocates for investing during undervalued phases to minimize losses, suggesting that even in a rising market, investors should consider fixed-income products to balance their portfolios [6]. Group 2 - The article mentions various investment advisory combinations available, including index enhancement and active selection, designed to simplify investment for individuals [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "missing out" on market gains, emphasizing that for ordinary investors, missing out is not a risk, while losing money is the real concern [2][10]. Group 1: Fund Managers' Perspective - For fund managers, missing out on market gains poses a significant risk, as it can lead to underperformance compared to the market, resulting in investor dissatisfaction and a substantial decrease in fund size [4][6]. - A decline in fund size directly impacts the management fees collected by fund companies, leading to reduced revenue [5]. - To mitigate this risk, many fund managers opt to maintain a high stock allocation consistently, aiming for excess returns through careful stock selection [7][8]. Group 2: Ordinary Investors' Perspective - Ordinary investors face different circumstances; they do not receive rewards for taking on greater risks, and aggressive investment strategies do not guarantee higher returns [11][14]. - Ordinary investors often need to liquidate assets for cash flow to meet living expenses, which can be problematic during market downturns [15][16]. - Unlike fund managers, who focus on relative performance against other funds, ordinary investors should prioritize absolute returns to ensure each investment is profitable and does not negatively impact their purchasing power [20][17]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes the importance of investing during undervalued market phases to minimize potential losses [21][23]. - It highlights that purchasing high-quality assets at lower valuations can lead to higher long-term returns while reducing risk [22][23]. - As of August 12, 2025, the market is still considered relatively cheap, presenting an opportunity for investors to accumulate quality assets [26].

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm employment data released on Friday showed a significant downward revision, with July's new jobs dropping to 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and a total downward revision of 258,000 for May and June combined, leaving an average of only 35,000 new jobs per month over the past three months, marking a record low since the pandemic began [8][10] - The market's interpretation of the data suggests that the low response rate to surveys by the Labor Statistics Bureau is a major factor in the downward revision, with the response rate dropping below 60%, indicating that nearly half of the initial data is based on model estimates rather than actual responses [11][12] - The Federal Reserve's probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 90%, influencing investment decisions, with a focus on structural opportunities rather than broad market movements [12] Group 2 - Two key overseas dates are highlighted: August 7, when new tariffs are set to take effect, and August 12, which is the original deadline for the U.S.-China trade pause, now extended by three months, indicating potential market volatility and risk aversion leading up to these dates [13][14] - The second batch of floating management fee funds is set to launch next week, with 12 funds approved, indicating a potential turning point for public fund liabilities and a shift in market dynamics [16][17] - The fee structure for the new floating management fee products is designed to incentivize fund managers to achieve both absolute and relative returns, creating a performance-based reward system [20][22] Group 3 - Controversy surrounds the announcements from Yangtze Power and China Shenhua regarding significant investments, with concerns that these actions may negatively impact profits and cash flow for minority shareholders [25][26] - The ongoing competition in the food delivery market appears to be cooling, as major players like Meituan and Ele.me have issued statements against "zero-yuan purchases," reflecting a shift in strategy [30] - Shanghai has initiated a trial operation for autonomous driving, raising concerns about the impact on employment in the manufacturing sector, as automation continues to reduce labor demand [32]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, particularly focusing on the insurance sector's asset allocation strategies and the shift towards equity investments due to the underperformance of the bond market [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - There is a consensus in the industry that after a downturn in the bond market, investors are looking to equities for returns, although there are concerns about high valuations and the sustainability of upward momentum [3]. - Institutional investors have been net sellers of broad-based ETFs, with over 100 billion sold since mid-April, indicating a cautious approach despite a high risk appetite reflected in the net inflow into industry ETFs [3]. - The insurance sector faces challenges in absolute and relative performance assessments, necessitating a focus on alpha opportunities within the industry [4]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Challenges - Insurance companies are constrained by asset-liability matching requirements, which limits their ability to invest heavily in equities, necessitating a continued allocation to long-duration bonds [4]. - The overall investment process in insurance firms is evolving towards a more team-oriented approach to ensure consistent expectations and performance across different accounts [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The insurance sector is experiencing a gradual increase in equity allocation, driven by high costs of liabilities and a mismatch in the speed of asset allocation between fixed income and equities [5]. - The current low interest rate environment has led to a significant increase in insurance premium income, but the sustainability of this growth is questioned due to the potential for asset-liability mismatches [6][9]. Group 4: Research and Analysis - There is a need for cross-research among different asset classes within financial institutions to avoid siloed thinking and enhance overall market understanding [7][8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the broader market context, particularly the implications of low interest rates on asset valuations and investment strategies [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the period from June 30 to July 6, the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors mostly declined, with an overall change range of -14 BP to 2 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, while the net financing amount increased. In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, and the yields of all credit bonds declined. The credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds mostly narrowed, and each rating was generally at a historical low [1]. - On July 2, the first batch of 10 Sci - tech Bond ETFs were approved and will be issued on July 7, with a maximum initial fundraising scale of 3 billion yuan each. Their investment opportunities are worth attention [2]. - With the optimization of real - estate policies, the real - estate market is moving towards stabilization. For real - estate bonds, investors with high risk tolerance can consider early layout, focusing on central and state - owned enterprises and high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees [2]. - In the context of stable growth and prevention of systemic risks, the probability of urban investment bond defaults is very low, and urban investment bonds can still be a key allocation variety [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Primary Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From June 30 to July 6, a total of 221 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 213.317 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80%. The net financing amount was 94.097 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 105.798 billion yuan. Different bond types showed different trends in issuance and net financing [12]. 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors mostly declined, with different change ranges for different terms and ratings, from -14 BP to 2 BP [13]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - From June 30 to July 6, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 939.898 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 15.26%. The trading volume of short - term financing bills increased, while that of other varieties decreased [19]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, most credit spreads narrowed. For enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds, similar trends were observed, with different changes in spreads for different terms and ratings [23][32][35]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA+ medium - and short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds, term spreads and rating spreads showed different changes, and most were at historical lows [44][50][53]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustments and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From June 30 to July 6, a total of 5 companies had their ratings (including outlooks) adjusted, with 2 downgraded and 3 upgraded [56]. 3.3.2 Default and Extension Bond Statistics - There were no credit bond defaults during this period. The credit bonds of Guangzhou Fangyuan Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. were extended, with a remaining balance of 918 million yuan [58]. 3.4 Investment Views - In the long run, the yield of credit bonds is still in a downward channel. When allocating, investors can wait for opportunities and increase allocation during adjustments, focusing on the coupon value of individual bonds. Currently, credit sinking is not effective, and high - grade 5 - year bonds can be considered first. Attention should also be paid to the impact of policies and market supply - demand on the bond market [1][59]. - The investment opportunities of Sci - tech Bond ETFs are worthy of attention. For real - estate bonds, high - risk - tolerance investors can consider early layout. Urban investment bonds can be a key allocation variety [2][3][60].

Core Insights - The public fund industry is experiencing innovation breakthroughs with the approval and launch of the first batch of floating fee rate funds, led by the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" [1] - Chen Cong, the proposed fund manager of the Xingzheng Global Hexi Mixed Fund, is gaining market attention as a representative of the new generation of floating fee rate fund managers [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy and Strategy - Chen Cong is known as a "quality growth catcher" and has a strong background in data processing and systematic thinking, stemming from his education in mathematics and financial engineering [2] - His investment philosophy emphasizes three key concepts: quality growth, risk pricing, and disciplined investment, focusing on a balanced approach rather than a single aggressive strategy [2][3] - Chen Cong maintains a flexible tactical allocation strategy, allowing for adjustments based on market conditions, such as shifting to cyclical assets when growth styles falter [3] Group 2: Fund Management and Performance Goals - The Xingzheng Global Hexi Mixed Fund aims for returns relative to a benchmark, combining fixed management fees with a floating component that aligns with investor interests [4] - Chen Cong's primary goal in managing the new product is to avoid underperforming the benchmark by 3% and to pursue excess returns of over 6% [4] - The floating fee mechanism shifts the performance assessment from peer comparison to index tracking, enhancing decision-making clarity for fund managers [4] Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Chen Cong expresses optimism about the current market, citing improvements in market structure and investor behavior as conducive to better long-term returns [5] - He identifies innovative pharmaceuticals as a promising sector, noting that the valuation of Chinese innovative drug companies remains undervalued despite recent gains [5] - The application of AI is another area of focus, with Chen Cong believing that the recent pullback in AI hype presents an opportunity for long-term investment in high-certainty internet leaders [5] - Chen Cong also highlights the advantages of A-shares in technology hardware, while recognizing the strong positioning of Hong Kong stocks in new consumption sectors [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the controversial yet significant figure of Xu Xiang, known for his unique investment style and long-term high returns, leaving a legendary mark in the investment community [2] - Xu Xiang's early life was characterized by hard work and a strong dedication to studying finance, which laid the foundation for his future success in the securities industry [5][6] - His investment firm, Zexi, was known for its aggressive trading style and strict performance standards, focusing on absolute returns while also considering relative performance [12][13] Group 2 - Xu Xiang's work ethic was highlighted by his dedication to studying the stock market for over 12 hours a day, demonstrating an intense focus that contributed to his investment success [8][9] - The firm Zexi employed a rigorous assessment method for its researchers, emphasizing the importance of stock recommendations that would yield immediate gains and maintaining strict stop-loss measures [13][14] - The article illustrates the concept of contrarian thinking in investing, where Xu Xiang often went against prevailing market sentiments, leading to successful outcomes [14][18] Group 3 - The case of Chongqing Brewery is presented as a classic example of Xu Xiang's investment strategy, where he capitalized on market misjudgments despite negative news, showcasing the psychological aspects of stock trading [17][18] - The narrative emphasizes the importance of resilience in the face of market volatility, as demonstrated by Zexi's ability to recover from significant losses due to unforeseen events [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term investment and value investing in the capital market, particularly in light of new policies aimed at promoting long-term funds into the market [1] Group 1: Policy and Market Environment - The new "National Nine Articles" policy aims to significantly boost long-term capital inflow into the market, which is crucial for the healthy and stable development of the capital market [1] - The banking wealth management sector, with a scale of 30 trillion, is expected to inject substantial liquidity into the capital market, benefiting the real economy [1] Group 2: Company Strategy and Product Development - 招银理财 has established an independent equity investment department since 2019 and has been innovating in fee structures, such as launching the first equity product that does not charge management fees if the net value is below 1 [5] - The company has developed a multi-asset strategy brand called "全+福," which includes various strategies like value+, dividend+, and index+ to adapt to different market conditions [7] - 招银理财 aims to enhance its investment strategies and product functionalities, focusing on absolute return goals while also considering relative returns [5][7] Group 3: Investment Roles and Market Stability - 招银理财 plays multiple roles in the market, including being a long-term capital "introducer," a "stabilizer" for the capital market, and a "promoter" of industrial upgrades through participation in equity financing [6] - The company has reported that its PR3 and above equity products have reached over 200 billion, accounting for about one-third of the bank wealth management market [7] Group 4: Investment Trends and Future Outlook - The company sees "固收+" products as a key strategy for increasing equity investment, as they offer a balanced risk-return profile and are well-received by clients with lower risk tolerance [8] - 招银理财 is also focusing on enhancing investor education to improve confidence in equity products, employing a tiered educational approach tailored to different risk preferences [17] - The company anticipates that the proportion of equity assets in wealth management will gradually increase, with a more diversified asset allocation strategy in response to the low-interest-rate environment [20]