当伊朗议长卡利巴夫将美国中东军事基地列为合法打击目标时，全球的石油市场仿佛被一声惊雷震撼。 1月11日，这一硬核的警告掀起了国际市场的波澜，而背后隐藏的战略杀招，却足以撼动全球能源体系 ——霍尔木兹海峡的封锁。这个海上咽喉最窄处仅33公里，每天承载着全球三分之一的原油运输量。若 这条生命线中断，每日约1800万桶的石油流动将遭遇致命打击，带来的影响将远超1973年石油危机的冲 击。 回望历史，1973年阿拉伯石油禁运引发了全球油价暴涨300%，美国GDP因此下滑4.7%。而如今，伊朗 手中握有更加致命的武器：不仅拥有数千枚精准反舰导弹，更能通过操控也门胡塞武装，直接袭击沙特 的石油设施。2019年，胡塞武装的无人机攻击就曾让全球5%的石油供应中断，造成了严重的市场波 动。如果美伊爆发冲突，这种不对称的打击将成为常态。作为全球最大的原油进口国，中国的战略石油 储备面临着严峻考验。按照国际能源署的标准，成员国需储备90天的净进口量，尽管我国官方未公布具 体数据，但业内估算我国的储备大约能支撑80天。一旦霍尔木兹海峡被封锁两个月，长三角、珠三角的 石化产业链将面临断供的风险。而更为严峻的是，伊朗可能借机重启灰色市场 ...

但是我们看到对沥青市场与原油市场的反应形成了较大的背离，沥青期货主力元旦后首个交易日开盘最 高溢价200元/吨以上，最终收盘收涨111元/吨，现货同样在节后当天大幅上涨，平均涨幅基本在130-150 元/吨。这是因为委内瑞拉的马瑞原油是我们国内生产沥青的优质原料，出率高、指标好、最近几年价 格还便宜，如果一旦委内原油流向中国的路径被卡，将会对国内沥青形成较大影响，价格会出现大幅溢 价，产量稳定性也会受到长期抑制，所以理论上该事件对沥青市场的影响会是长期的、巨大的。但我们 看最近两个交易日，期现货市场均再度趋稳，该溢价逻辑一步到位，没有兑现出延续性，而且现货相较 于期货涨幅略大，支撑性相对更好，但在现实环境里，市场对高价资源接受度有限。 我们认为造成如此影响的原因一下几点：一是围绕所谓沥青生产原料收紧的逻辑缺乏现实反馈。事件后 依然有委内资源的装船流出的消息，而且海上浮仓库存相对充裕，也并未存在市场激进采买，导致原料 贴水大幅溢价的情况，原料贴水幅度一直保持相对稳定，甚至其他替代原油也均没有出现集中采购的情 况，说明现在地方炼厂的中短期原料并不存在太大问题。二是从历史来看，多次炒作过原料偏紧的逻 辑，最终国内也 ...

来源：华尔街见闻 德意志银行指出美国争夺委内瑞拉石油，表面是为能源，实则是为美元霸权打响的一场隐秘战争。 追风交易台消息，1月8日德银策略师Mallika Sachdeva发表研报指出，美国对委内瑞拉的介入远不止表 面的能源考量那么简单。虽然控制全球最大石油储备能增强美国对全球油价的影响力，但更深层的战略 目标在于维护美元的全球储备货币地位。 Sachdeva认为石油对军事力量的不可替代性直接影响一国在冲突中的胜算，而这正是各国央行持有储备 货币的核心考量因素。其次，控制石油定价权对维持石油美元体系至关重要。 随着美国不再是全球最大石油进口国，美国可能失去通过需求端控制定价的能力，转而寻求通过供应端 主导来确保石油继续以美元计价。 如果美国成功控制整个西半球的石油供应，其储量份额将超越欧佩克，从而巩固美元在全球金融体系中 的特殊地位。 能源霸权，历史的必然逻辑 研报复盘历史指出，一个国家通过掌控全球最核心的能源，不仅能获得经济与工业优势，更能将其转化 为不可挑战的军事优势和全球金融霸权，从而确立并维持其世界主导地位。 英国凭借欧洲最大的煤炭储备，率先引爆工业革命，成为19世纪的世界工厂与霸主。美国在发现大规模 ...

英国凭借欧洲最大的煤炭储备，率先引爆工业革命，成为19世纪的世界工厂与霸主。美国在发现大规模 石油后，凭借其高能量密度和便利性，推动了汽车、航空、化工等革命，在二战后成为全球经济与工业 中心。 德意志银行指出美国争夺委内瑞拉石油，表面是为能源，实则是为美元霸权打响的一场隐秘战争。 追风交易台消息，1月8日德银策略师Mallika Sachdeva发表研报指出，美国对委内瑞拉的介入远不止表 面的能源考量那么简单。虽然控制全球最大石油储备能增强美国对全球油价的影响力，但更深层的战略 目标在于维护美元的全球储备货币地位。 Sachdeva认为石油对军事力量的不可替代性直接影响一国在冲突中的胜算，而这正是各国央行持有储 备货币的核心考量因素。其次，控制石油定价权对维持石油美元体系至关重要。 随着美国不再是全球最大石油进口国，美国可能失去通过需求端控制定价的能力，转而寻求通过供应端 主导来确保石油继续以美元计价。 如果美国成功控制整个西半球的石油供应，其储量份额将超越欧佩克，从而巩固美元在全球金融体系中 的特殊地位。 能源霸权，历史的必然逻辑 研报复盘历史指出，一个国家通过掌控全球最核心的能源，不仅能获得经济与工业优势 ...

转自：扬子晚报 美国政府所谓"对委内瑞拉进行深度介入以恢复秩序"的无耻谰言，无疑又将该国拖入一场看不到尽头的 资本收割泥潭。1月3日在白宫召开的记者会上，"石油"一词前后共出现了26次，相比之下，与"毒品"相 关词语仅提到10余次。美国对委内瑞拉动刀背后的野心昭然若揭。原因无他，控制了委内瑞拉这个世界 上石油储量最大的国家，美国就能掌控石油美元体系的根基、主导世界能源安全的结构、把握关键地缘 战略的枢纽，继续巩固美元的霸权地位，并在国际博弈中掌握重要筹码。 2026年一开年，美国在拉丁美洲的斑斑劣迹再添一笔。 1月3日凌晨，美军发动跨境军事突袭，将委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人强行押往美国。随后，美国司法 部长帕姆·邦迪在社交媒体上公布一系列指控，称马杜罗犯有"毒品恐怖主义阴谋罪、可卡因走私阴谋 罪"等多项罪名，并扬言他将很快在美国法庭上接受"全面制裁"。 实际上，委内瑞拉在全球毒品走私中仅仅扮演"过境国"角色，美国缉毒局在《2025年国家毒品威胁评估 报告》中甚至未将其列为芬太尼来源国。尽管马杜罗屡次揭露美国政府实为石油利益而来，白宫却始终 以"打击毒品恐怖主义"自居，扮演着"正义警察"的角色。然而，这场策划数 ...

最近，委内瑞拉海域和加勒比海国际水域的局势变得不太平，然而这次制造事端的不是加勒比海盗，而是美军。12月10日，美国海军扣押了船长号油轮，并 扣押了船上的110万桶石油，这一事件的发生标志着美军首次对外国油轮采取武力扣押。随后，美军不仅扣押了船长号，还接连扣押了世纪号和贝拉1号，其 中贝拉1号在被扣押时正在逃跑。 本来这件事情与中国无关，但美国却故意将中国牵扯其中。美军扣押的第二艘油轮世纪号是由中国香港世纪航运公司运营 的，这让美国的行动显得尤为针对中国。美国不是无意而为，背后显然有两重算计。首先，船长号为何会被美军扣押？虽然船长号的所属国尚不明确，但可 以确认的是，船上装载的石油来自委内瑞拉。 美国一直将委内瑞拉的马杜罗政权视为反美势力，因此非常不希望在地理上接近美国的委内瑞拉拥有一个反美政府。为打击马杜罗政权，美国对委内瑞拉实 施了严厉的经济制裁，尤其是封锁了该国的石油出口。石油出口是委内瑞拉经济的命脉，这一措施旨在让委内瑞拉经济崩溃，甚至可能引发内部分裂，从而 为美国扶持亲美政权提供机会。美国的这一战略多年来只是通过言辞进行施压，而美国总统特朗普则因中期选举临近而采取更为强硬的政策，试图通过这些 举措重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the U.S. dollar's dominance in the global financial system, highlighting how financial instruments and geopolitical strategies have been used to maintain this supremacy, particularly through mechanisms like the SWIFT system and the Petrodollar agreement [5][13][27]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 established a dollar-gold standard, positioning the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, which was later challenged by the "Triffin Dilemma" [9][10]. - The U.S. dollar's link to gold ended in 1971 when President Nixon suspended the dollar's convertibility into gold, marking the transition to a fiat currency system [12][13]. Group 2: The Petrodollar System - The 1973 oil crisis led to the establishment of the Petrodollar system, where oil transactions were conducted exclusively in U.S. dollars, creating a structural demand for the dollar globally [15][27]. - This system allowed the U.S. to finance its deficits by printing dollars, which were then recycled back into the U.S. economy through the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds by oil-exporting countries [15][27]. Group 3: Financial Control Mechanisms - The SWIFT system, established in 1973, became a crucial tool for tracking and controlling international financial transactions, effectively allowing the U.S. to monitor global financial flows [18][20]. - The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) maintains a blacklist that can freeze assets and restrict transactions, serving as a powerful tool for enforcing economic sanctions [25][31]. Group 4: Case Studies of Financial Power - The case of BNP Paribas illustrates the consequences of violating U.S. sanctions, resulting in a $8.97 billion fine, which exemplifies the reach of U.S. financial regulations [30][31]. - The article highlights the impact of sanctions on countries like Iran and Russia, demonstrating how financial tools can be used to exert geopolitical pressure and isolate nations from the global financial system [36][38]. Group 5: Emerging Alternatives - In response to U.S. financial dominance, countries are exploring alternatives such as the Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and digital currencies, which aim to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [44][48]. - The resurgence of gold as a reserve asset reflects a growing concern over the security of dollar-denominated assets, prompting central banks to increase their gold holdings [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) aims to issue more euro stablecoins to counter the rapid expansion of US dollar stablecoins in Europe [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for the Popularity of US Dollar Stablecoins - Many individuals and businesses in the Eurozone prefer using US dollar stablecoins for payments, savings, and transactions due to their safety, as they are pegged 1:1 to the US dollar and backed by US assets [5]. - The convenience of blockchain technology allows for fast cross-border transactions without the need for traditional banks, enhancing privacy [5]. - Higher interest rates on US dollar deposits compared to European rates incentivize users to hold dollar stablecoins for better returns [5]. - The dominance of the US dollar in global trade, especially in commodities and cryptocurrency transactions, makes it essential for European businesses to use dollar stablecoins for international dealings [5][7]. Group 2: Challenges for Euro Stablecoins - The EU's attempt to promote euro stablecoins faces significant challenges due to the entrenched dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system [8][10]. - The historical context of the US dollar's supremacy, established through systems like Bretton Woods and the petrodollar, has created a robust demand for dollar stablecoins, which merely digitize existing dollar demand [10][11]. - The euro, while the second-largest currency globally, is primarily used within the Eurozone, limiting its appeal for international transactions [13]. - The EU must address internal issues such as building asset pools, ensuring transparency, and gaining user trust before euro stablecoins can compete effectively [17]. Group 3: Current Initiatives and Future Outlook - The EU is currently testing euro stablecoins in specific areas like cross-border e-commerce and internal natural gas transactions to build familiarity and usage within the Eurozone [19]. - The competition between stablecoins is just beginning, with potential opportunities arising from future economic shifts, such as US debt issues or the development of regional stablecoins in Asia-Pacific [19][21]. - The EU's strategy should focus on solidifying the internal market for euro stablecoins before attempting to compete with US dollar stablecoins on a global scale [21].

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that as of the end of Q2 2025, the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 56.32%, the lowest since 1995, while the Chinese yuan has made significant inroads in international energy settlements, particularly with Saudi Arabia [3] - The structural weakening of the petrodollar system is accelerating, highlighted by Saudi Arabia's shift towards multi-currency settlement mechanisms and the completion of the first oil transaction using digital yuan, significantly reducing transaction times [3][4] - The transition from a petrodollar system to a multi-currency framework is driven by concerns over the risks associated with dollar dependency and the strategic diversification efforts of oil-producing countries [4][5] Group 1: Energy Settlement Changes - The shift in the Middle Eastern energy settlement system is rooted in a profound change in the stance of oil-producing countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, which has expressed openness to using currencies other than the dollar for oil transactions [4] - The geopolitical risks associated with the dollar system, especially following the financial sanctions against Russia, have prompted oil-producing nations to seek alternatives to reduce reliance on a single currency [4][5] - China's position as the largest energy importer and its growing trade with Saudi Arabia, which reached $107.53 billion in 2024, underscores the importance of diversifying currency use in energy transactions [4] Group 2: Financial Circulation and Investment - Establishing a financial circulation system that allows yuan to flow in and out of the Middle East is crucial for the yuan's acceptance as a stable currency [10] - The issuance of yuan-denominated sovereign bonds by China in the Middle East, which saw a subscription rate of nearly 20 times the amount offered, reflects strong investor confidence in Chinese credit [10][12] - The expansion of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and the establishment of currency swap agreements with over 40 countries facilitate the use of yuan in international trade and investment [11][12] Group 3: Economic Cooperation and Trust - The deepening of economic cooperation between China and Middle Eastern countries, moving beyond oil trade to infrastructure and technology, is essential for building trust in the yuan [14][15] - Projects like the China-Saudi Arabia Special Economic Zone and the Jizan Economic City highlight the growing demand for yuan-denominated transactions in various sectors [14][15] - The collaboration in green energy and high-tech sectors further solidifies the reliability of China as a partner, enhancing the yuan's stability and acceptance [15][16] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Challenges - The decline of the petrodollar system is influenced by historical factors, including the US's use of financial sanctions, which have raised concerns among traditional allies about the risks of dollar dependency [19][20] - Despite the weakening of the petrodollar, the dollar's entrenched position in global trade and finance presents challenges for the yuan's internationalization [20][22] - The geopolitical dynamics and the US's potential response to the de-dollarization trend could pose significant hurdles for the yuan's rise as a global currency [20][22] Conclusion - The transition towards a multi-currency system is underway, with the yuan gaining traction in the Middle East, signaling a shift away from dollar dominance and towards a more balanced international monetary order [22][23]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Deutsche Bank reports that gold's share in global "foreign exchange and gold" reserves has risen to 30%, while the dollar's share has decreased from 43% to 40%. If gold is to match the dollar's share, its price would need to rise to approximately $5,790 per ounce [1] - Western Securities suggests that the current high gold prices indicate the potential for a long-term bull market, driven by central bank purchases, despite some investor concerns about short-term overbought conditions [2] Group 2: U.S. Banking Sector Analysis - CICC states that recent bank failures in the U.S. do not pose a systemic risk to the financial system, as they are more localized credit risk events rather than widespread issues. However, rising credit risks in a high-interest environment could lead to tighter lending conditions [2] - Huatai Securities highlights that while the U.S. banking sector currently shows healthy cash flows and liquidity, long-term integration pressures remain due to the large number of small banks facing challenges in asset quality and competition [7] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Trends - CICC emphasizes that the expectation of an economic cycle recovery is the most significant factor influencing asset pricing this year, with indicators showing diminishing resistance to recovery [6] - CICC also notes that while maintaining optimism towards the stock market, investors should be cautious in their asset allocation, focusing on undervalued sectors and commodities expected to perform well in the fourth quarter [6] Group 4: Rare Earth and Cobalt Market Opportunities - CITIC Securities reports that China's recent export controls on rare earths are expected to strengthen its strategic position, potentially leading to price increases and challenges for overseas supply chains [4] - The report indicates that the tightening of controls on rare earths will likely benefit high-performance magnetic materials, increasing demand for iron oxide permanent magnets [4] Group 5: Environmental Regulations and Market Potential - Huatai Securities estimates that the market space for tail gas treatment under the National Seven standards could reach 100 billion yuan, benefiting companies with advanced technology and competitive products in this sector [8]