↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 中东局势大变！ 美国联手对伊朗发动袭击！ 2026年2月的最后一天，美国以"史诗怒火"为名，联合以色列向伊朗发起空袭。随后，伊朗发射导弹反击以色列和中东多国的美国军事设施，宣称 报复行动"没有任何红线"。 这是美以在9个月内再袭伊朗，也是特朗普政府在不到两个月内第二次对他国发动军事打击。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间3月1日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡。随后，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称，伊朗武装部队"最猛烈的进攻行动"即将开 始，目标是以色列和美国的基地。 新华网报道称，媒体和专家认为，当前美以行动规模、公布行动目标及明确阶段计划的特点显示，这次打击更像是预谋已久的实战打击，而不是"表 演式闪电战"。而从伊朗反应看，美以行动可能引发更长时间和更大范围的军事对抗或报复循环。 02 霍尔木兹海峡已事实上停航 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡，哈梅内伊女儿、女婿、孙女、儿媳在袭击中身亡，伊朗防长等约40名官员在袭击中死亡！ 另外，伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡，这是伊朗的杀手锏，它是全球油价的超级定价锚，占了全球海运石油贸易的30%。 同时，伊朗将展开最猛烈的进攻，目标是以色列和美军基地；美方也 ...

27日，美军"福特"号航母抵达以色列水域，美在中东部署的航母增至两艘。美国对伊朗发出军事打击威胁并加紧在海湾地区进行军事部署，伊朗则表示将予 以报复。专家表示，地缘政治风险上升是推动油价走高的主因，市场担忧中东地区局势紧张升级。 原油市场与地缘冲突深度绑定 以美元结算石油贸易的霸权体系扰乱全球 北京师范大学教授经济学专家 万喆：原油往往跟地缘冲突深度绑定，底层的经济逻辑是因为它有三重核心的属性。 第一，商品属性。战争会冲击全球的供应平衡，全球原油供给高度集中在中东、俄罗斯这种地缘敏感的区域。战争一旦直接摧毁油田、炼油厂等生产设施， 或者封锁霍尔木兹海峡、曼德海峡等运输咽喉，就会造成实际的供需失衡，推高价格。 第二，金融属性。战争会放大避险情绪和影响投机定价，形成恐慌-买入-涨价-更恐慌的正反馈，也就是常说的地缘风险溢价。不需要实际战争爆发就会推动 油价上涨。 第三，石油美元体系的霸权属性。美国往往通过一些利益绑定实现地缘政治和经济利益的双重目标，成为很多局部冲突背后深层次的动因。 美若对伊动武或引发全球能源市场剧烈波动 北京师范大学教授经济学专家 万喆：二月中旬以来，布伦特原油快速上涨，核心驱动因素是中东地缘 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant shift in the global monetary system is underway, characterized by the decline of the US dollar's dominance and the rise of the Chinese yuan, marking the onset of a "great diversion" in the global currency landscape [2][4]. Group 1: Decline of Dollar Dominance - The foundation of dollar hegemony was established post-World War II through the Bretton Woods system, which linked the dollar to gold and other currencies to the dollar, making it the global reserve and settlement currency [2]. - The dollar's dominance has been undermined by the US's excessive money supply growth, which has led to global inflation and financial sanctions that have made other countries wary of relying on the dollar [2][4]. - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from over 70% at its peak to below 50%, indicating a continuous decline in its reserve currency status [4]. Group 2: Rise of the Yuan - The internationalization of the yuan is experiencing a golden period, with significant growth in cross-border yuan transactions, reaching 32.4 trillion yuan in 2025, a 9% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - Many countries are increasingly using the yuan for trade and investment, with major commodities like oil and iron ore being settled in yuan, reducing exposure to dollar sanctions [5]. - China's economic and industrial strength supports the yuan's rise, positioning it as a credible alternative to the dollar, based on strength, integrity, and cooperative growth rather than military threats [7]. Group 3: Future of Global Currency System - The transition in the international monetary system reflects a multipolar global economy, where the economic power of the US is no longer singular, and countries like China, Russia, and the EU are gaining influence [7]. - The rise of the yuan is not aimed at replacing the dollar but rather at breaking its monopoly to create a more equitable and diverse global monetary system, allowing all nations equal opportunities in the financial realm [7].

近期有消息透露，俄罗斯正与美国在私下进行沟通，寻求在乌克兰危机结束后重返美元结算体系。曾经高举"去美元化"大旗的俄罗斯，现在在经济压力下做 出妥协，试图重新接入美元体系。这一转变背后，究竟隐藏着怎样的博弈与权衡？ 一、能源困境与务实转向 在美俄私下接触的背景下，中俄关系的走向引发了广泛关注。进入2026年以来，中俄双方频频释放出积极合作的信号，普京也计划在上半年访问中国，但 像"西伯利亚-2"号天然气管道这样的具体项目却迟迟未能落地。 必须明确的是，中俄合作的基本盘不会轻易动摇。双方在军事、经济、政治等多个领域的深 度绑定，是基于共同的战略利益，而非短期的利益交换所能改变。中俄之间的"不结盟"定位，反而赋予了合作更强的韧性，使得双方能够在独立自主的前提 下，做出更具务实性的选择。然而，合作模式无疑会发生变化。在全球局势日益复杂的不确定性下，中俄早已在推动合作机制的"进化"：从单纯的能源贸 易，转向产业链上下游的深度整合，从技术引进，转向双向赋能。这一新模式的核心是去中心化，避免任何一方被单一市场或货币体系束缚，从而增强整体 的抗风险能力。以能源领域为例，中俄不仅保持着传统的买卖关系，还在联合开发新能源技术和建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Founder Securities emphasizes that crude oil, as a core commodity in the global energy system, is significantly influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia forming a tripartite balance in supply. The financial attributes of oil can lead to short-term price deviations, while the political attributes reshape its supply and demand structure [1][31]. Group 1: Crude Oil Price Influencing Factors - Crude oil prices are primarily influenced by three attributes: commodity, financial, and political [2]. - The commodity attribute determines the long-term demand trend, while the financial attribute amplifies price volatility, and the political attribute introduces uncertainty [2][27]. - The global crude oil market features three main pricing systems based on different benchmark oils: WTI, Brent, and Dubai [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side of crude oil prices is highly correlated with global economic activity levels, oil inventories, and energy usage [4]. - Crude oil inventories play a crucial role in stabilizing market balance, acting as a buffer against supply disruptions [5]. - The current global crude oil supply structure is characterized by a tripartite balance among the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia, with the U.S. projected to produce nearly 13.2 million barrels per day by 2024 [15]. Group 3: Financial Attributes and Market Dynamics - The dollar's role as the pricing currency for crude oil significantly impacts oil prices, reinforcing the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [21]. - There exists a dynamic inverse relationship between the dollar index and oil prices, with the dollar's strength typically leading to lower oil prices due to decreased purchasing power in other currencies [22][26]. - The oil market exhibits dual characteristics of commodity and financial attributes, with prices influenced by both supply-demand fundamentals and global financial market conditions [27]. Group 4: Political Attributes and Geopolitical Implications - The "shale revolution" and the establishment of the OPEC+ mechanism have led to a new tripartite oil supply system, increasing interactions and conflicts in energy geopolitics [31]. - The U.S. has shifted its energy strategy from independence to dominance, aiming to lead and influence the international energy market [32]. - The U.S. intervention in Venezuela is seen as a move to re-integrate significant oil reserves into the dollar settlement framework, potentially establishing a new anchor for the petrodollar system [35].

Group 1: Formation of Dollar Hegemony - The dominance of the dollar as the global currency was established after World War I, with the U.S. accounting for 40% of global trade in 1919, supported by its strong national economy [3] - The establishment of the Bretton Woods system post-World War II marked the transition from the pound to the dollar as the leading currency, with the dollar pegged to gold, leading to increased global reserves in dollars [5] - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s transitioned the world to fiat currency, yet the dollar maintained its dominance due to U.S. leadership in technology and capital [6] Group 2: The Role of Oil in Dollar Stability - The 1970s oil crisis highlighted the importance of oil in the global economy, leading to the establishment of the petrodollar system where oil transactions were conducted in dollars, further solidifying its hegemonic status [8] Group 3: Dollar Privileges and Challenges - The U.S. benefits from dollar hegemony through significant seigniorage income and the ability to conduct international trade in dollars, minimizing exchange rate risks [10] - The euro has emerged as a strong competitor to the dollar, particularly as the EU's economic strength grows, challenging the dollar's global dominance [12] Group 4: Rise of the Ruble - The Russian ruble, while historically weak, has recently gained attention as Russia pushes for energy exports to be settled in rubles, particularly in response to sanctions and the need to counter the petrodollar system [14] Group 5: Potential for Renminbi's Rise - The international status of the renminbi has been rising, with countries like Brazil increasing their renminbi reserves and agreements for oil trade in renminbi being established with Iran and Russia [16][17] - Despite progress, the renminbi faces significant challenges, as the dollar still accounts for over 65% of global reserves and 90% of foreign exchange transactions, indicating that the dollar's dominance remains strong [19] Group 6: Future of Renminbi - The renminbi's rise represents a shift in the global economic landscape, but it is unlikely to replace the dollar in the short term due to the need for a strong national comprehensive power [20][22] - The ongoing changes in global dynamics may enhance the renminbi's position in the international monetary system over time, but achieving dominance will require sustained effort and development [22]

之前我对美国这个国家存在的一些问题有点摸不清头脑，当我把美国当成一家公司来看的时候，一切也 就通透了。 一定不要从中国这种大一统国家的角度去看美国，不然的话，你压根就看不懂的。 比如说，为什么美国每个州的法律都不一样。甚至于，像加州州长这种实力的地方政府领导，为啥敢硬 刚川普。再比如，去年年初中美对账的时候，美军居然还要自掏腰包购买军服，这种事咱们也难以理 解。 如果把美国看作一家公司的话，那美军就相当于是员工了，员工上班自掏腰包购买工服，这在公司里面 也就不足为奇了。 所以，一定不要以咱们中国的政治角度去看待的话，你就会很不理解。 换个角度看美国，咱就把它想成咱们身边一超大型公司，名叫美利坚集团。 但不管谁在那个位置上，公司最基本的利益就是赚钱，稳定集团霸权地位，这个底线规则不能打破的。 然后，最关键的管理部门是美联储，这就相当于集团的大财务总监，权力贼大还相对独立。 美联储主要干嘛呢？ 简单说就是管水龙头，经济不行了，他拧开闸门，降息放水。通货膨胀。物价飞涨了，就开始加息拧紧 点。 其中，美联储最重要的任务就是让全世界都相信咱家公司发行的欠条，也就是国债，永远值钱，永远有 人买。 再来看看他里面那些部门都 ...

Group 1 - The Iranian Speaker's declaration of U.S. military bases in the Middle East as legitimate targets has caused significant turmoil in the global oil market, with potential implications for the energy system due to the threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for oil transport [1] - The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint, carrying one-third of the world's oil supply, and a blockade could disrupt the flow of approximately 18 million barrels of oil daily, leading to consequences that could surpass the 1973 oil crisis [1][3] - Historical context shows that the 1973 oil embargo led to a 300% increase in oil prices and a 4.7% decline in U.S. GDP, highlighting the potential severity of current tensions [3] Group 2 - Iran's military capabilities have significantly improved, with advancements in missile technology and drone warfare, posing a direct threat to oil shipping in the region [5] - If conflict escalates, oil prices could exceed $200 per barrel, resulting in increased inflation in developed economies, currency devaluation in emerging markets, and losses in energy-intensive industries [5] - The current situation is exacerbated by Iran's high domestic inflation rate of 40% and the depreciation of its currency, pushing its leadership towards riskier strategies that could lead to a global energy crisis [7] Group 3 - The insurance market for shipping in the Persian Gulf has reacted sharply, with war risk premiums increasing by 470%, indicating that traders are preparing for potential worst-case scenarios [7] - Iran has increased its crude oil exports to China, averaging 850,000 barrels per day in January, which may serve as a strategic maneuver amidst rising tensions [7] - The global energy landscape is facing a dilemma, with U.S. shale oil production at record highs but constrained by pipeline limitations, while Europe struggles with energy transition challenges [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical event involving the U.S. capturing the Venezuelan president has significantly impacted the oil and asphalt markets, with expectations of a short-term disruption but a medium-term recovery in production levels [1] Group 1: Oil Market Impact - The short-term oil export blockade is expected to have a minimal impact on the market, with production anticipated to quickly recover to over 900,000 barrels per day [1] - The event has led to a price drop of approximately two dollars in the oil market [1] Group 2: Asphalt Market Reaction - Asphalt futures saw a significant increase, with prices rising by over 200 yuan per ton at the opening of the first trading day after New Year's, ultimately closing up by 111 yuan per ton [2] - The average price increase in the spot market was around 130-150 yuan per ton on the same day, indicating a strong market reaction [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The perceived tightening of asphalt production raw materials lacks real feedback, as there are still reports of Venezuelan resources being shipped, and floating storage inventories remain relatively ample [3] - Historical trends show that previous concerns over raw material shortages did not lead to long-term production disruptions, suggesting that the current market sentiment may be overly cautious [3] - The current high profitability of asphalt production may encourage refineries to increase output, countering the perceived supply constraints [3] Group 4: Price Valuation and Future Outlook - The relative price of asphalt has reached a high point, with the asphalt futures/Brent ratio exceeding 1.03 and the spot market ratio reaching 1.02, indicating a seasonal high [4] - Future valuation support may weaken if demand expectations decline due to the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and refinery production plans should be closely monitored for any unexpected increases [4] - The current oil market is expected to remain weak with significant supply and demand pressures, suggesting a cautious approach to participation in the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank indicates that the U.S. involvement in Venezuela's oil is not merely about energy but is fundamentally a covert war for dollar hegemony [1][10]. Group 1: Energy and Economic Control - Controlling the world's largest oil reserves enhances the U.S.'s influence over global oil prices, but the deeper strategic goal is to maintain the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [1][10]. - The U.S. relies on oil and gas for over 70% of its energy consumption, necessitating a stable and low-cost supply to maintain global competitiveness [12]. - Venezuela's oil reserves are six times larger than those of the U.S., creating a "perfect complement" despite Venezuela's low production capacity [12]. Group 2: Military and Dollar Dominance - The military's reliance on oil is crucial, as the U.S. Department of Defense is the largest oil consumer, with 75% of federal energy consumption coming from defense [13][15]. - Historical evidence suggests that a country's probability of winning conflicts influences its currency's stability, making military dominance a key factor in the dollar's reserve status [15]. - The U.S. aims to secure control over oil reserves to enhance its military success probability, thereby supporting the dollar's position [15]. Group 3: Shift from Demand to Supply Control - The traditional leverage of maintaining dollar pricing through demand is weakened as the U.S. is no longer the largest oil importer [17]. - The new strategy involves becoming one of the largest oil suppliers to enforce dollar settlements from the supply side, particularly by controlling Venezuelan oil reserves [17][19]. - If the U.S. can control Venezuela's oil sales channels, it can ensure that trade remains dollar-denominated, thus maintaining global demand for the dollar [19].