超长期限信用债连续两周卖盘力量走弱，上周折价成交的重点重 新落回有信用瑕疵的个券。从折价成交幅度来看，上周大约 57%的折 价成交幅度都在 4BP 以上，以中航产融为代表的信用瑕疵个券重新成 为交易重点，交易占比高达 13%。从低于估值成交的情况来看，超长 期限信用债买入的意愿同样不强，市场交易的重点依然还是弱资质城 投。从成交幅度来看，部分机构买入意愿其实很强，上周约 64%的低 于估值成交幅度都在 3BP 及以上，但其中超长期限信用债占比不高， 3BP 及以上的成交以 2-5YAA(2)、AA-弱资质城投为主。 从机构行为来看，公募基金对普信债的净买入力度有所减弱，期 限以 3Y 以内为主，摊余债基带来的需求增量可能有所削弱，此外理 财对信用债买入力度同样放缓。上周基金净买入 1Y 以内信用债 138.72 亿元，1-3Y 信用债 127.47 亿元。11 月下旬开始 3 年以上封闭 期摊余债基打开节奏将放缓。而理财净买入 1Y 以内信用债 41.74 亿 元，1-3Y 信用债 21.47 亿元。11 月以来理财周度资金流入规模一般。 目前的点位上虽然票息策略依然是最优，但择券空间已经有所收 窄，1-3 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 关注永续品种定价偏离带来的机会 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | 齐晟 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | | --- | --- | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | | 杜林 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | | 王静颖 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 徐沛翔 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 指数接近前高，止盈压力再起：可转债市 | 2025-11-18 | | 指数接近前高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current strategy for credit bonds is to focus on coupon hunting, which is superior to the duration strategy. The main areas for exploration include medium - and low - quality urban investment bonds and some entities with a large convexity in the yield curve [5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint - The bond market was dull last week, lacking a trading theme. Credit bonds showed a hesitant performance, and the previous downward trend in yields paused. Looking ahead, positive factors for credit bonds include the concentrated opening period of amortized - cost - based open - end bond funds, stable liquidity, and the approaching time for year - end allocation to build coupon positions for the next year. Negative factors include the halt of the rapid decline in yields, a continuous drop in turnover rate, the uncertainty of the public - offering fee regulation, and potential disturbances from the stock market [5][8]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no cases of bond defaults and overdue, no enterprises with their main ratings or outlooks downgraded, and no bonds with their debt ratings lowered from November 10 to November 16, 2025. However, several companies had significant negative events, such as Shaanxi Tourism Group Co., Ltd. receiving a warning from the inter - bank market, and many companies facing issues like debt defaults, regulatory warnings, and restrictions on high - consumption of their legal representatives [11][12]. 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - Issuance volume remained high, but the maturity volume increased significantly, leading to a reduction in net financing. From November 10 to November 16, credit bond primary issuance was 269.9 billion yuan, a 7% decrease from the previous period. The total repayment amount rose to 238.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net inflow of 31.4 billion yuan. The cost of primary issuance continued to narrow slightly, with the AA + level showing a more significant reduction. The average coupon rates for AAA and AA + were 2.10% and 2.15% respectively, with the former increasing by 1bp and the latter decreasing by 11bp [12][13]. 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - The valuations of credit bonds with various ratings and tenors fluctuated within a narrow range. Only low - grade and long - term bonds showed a slight narrowing. Credit spreads remained flat in the short term and widened passively in the medium - and long - term. The turnover rate continued to decline, dropping 0.18 percentage points to 1.69%. The spreads of most industries widened by 1bp, while the real - estate industry's spreads narrowed by 2bp. Among real - estate enterprises, the spreads of Times Holdings, Rongqiao, Vanke, and Yuzhou Hongtu widened the most [5][17][24].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight weakness on November 13, with government bond futures declining across the board, while interbank bond yields rose by approximately 0.5 basis points. The central bank's latest monetary policy report emphasizes stable growth and removes the "preventing capital outflow" statement, maintaining a favorable outlook for the bond market [1][8]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.26% at 116.13, the 10-year main contract down 0.1% at 108.41, the 5-year main contract down 0.08% at 105.885, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% at 102.462 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally increased slightly, with the 30-year "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 06" yield rising by 0.5 basis points to 2.15%, and the 10-year "25 National Development Bank 15" yield up by 0.35 basis points to 1.876% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields varied, with the 2-year yield up 1.67 basis points to 3.568%, and the 30-year yield down 0.29 basis points to 4.665% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.2 basis points to 1.697% [4]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds generally fell, with the French yield down 4.7 basis points to 3.375% and the German yield down 1.5 basis points to 2.642% [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1900 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 972 billion yuan for the day [7]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 10.0 basis points to 1.315% [7]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income noted that recent regulatory measures by the central bank could help open up space for easing and improve the transmission of interest rates from short to long [8]. - CITIC Securities suggested that in the current environment of fluctuating long-term rates, investors should focus on coupon strategies and maintain a flexible approach to enhance returns [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In Q3 2025, the scale of bond funds and bond holdings decreased significantly, mainly due to the stock - bond seesaw and the negative impact of the new fund sales regulations. Bond funds generally reduced leverage and duration, and under - allocated interest - rate bonds, with medium - and long - term pure bond funds being the most obvious [3]. - Looking ahead, the bond market is expected to recover in Q4, and the scale of bond - type funds is likely to stabilize. With the duration of funds reaching a low point at the end of Q3, there is sufficient room for long - positions. After the possible implementation of the new fund sales regulations, the negative factors will be exhausted, which will drive the bond market, and interest rates are expected to reach a new low before the end of the year [3]. - In Q3, the overall market fund scale increased, but the bond fund scale declined. In terms of holdings, the proportion of stocks in the overall market funds increased, while that of bonds decreased, mainly by under - allocating interest - rate bonds and over - allocating credit bonds, affected by the significant interest rate adjustment in the bond market [3]. - The performance of equity assets was strong, while that of fixed - income assets was under pressure. Short - term bonds outperformed long - term bonds, and hybrid secondary bond funds outperformed hybrid primary bond funds. The equity market rally in Q3 drove up the yields of equity - related assets, and the bond yield curve steepened bearishly, with medium - and long - term bonds performing weaker [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fund Total Scale Rises, Bond Allocation Scale Drops 1.1 Fund Market Scale: Both Fund Shares and Net Asset Value Increase - As of the end of Q3 2025, there were about 13,300 funds, with a market share of approximately 31.06 trillion shares and a net asset value of about 35.92 trillion yuan. Compared with the end of Q2 2025, the number of funds increased by 3.06%, the market share by 0.53%, and the net asset value by 6.52% [7]. 1.2 Fund Asset Allocation: Bond Allocation Proportion Drops Significantly - By the end of Q3 2025, the total fund asset value increased by 3.95% compared with Q2. The market value of stock holdings increased by 24.81% quarter - on - quarter, that of bond holdings decreased by 5.02%, and that of cash holdings increased by 5.86% [15]. - The proportion of stock assets in fund holdings increased, while that of bonds decreased. At the end of Q3 2025, the proportions of stocks, bonds, cash, and other assets were 23.58%, 52.81%, 13.11%, and 9.85% respectively, with the bond asset proportion decreasing by 4.98 pct quarter - on - quarter [15]. 1.3 Fund Bond - Holding Analysis: Interest - Rate Bond Allocation Proportion Drops Significantly - By the end of Q3 2025, among all funds' bond holdings, interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased by 8.76%, 3.68%, 0.85%, 4.65%, and 6.29% respectively quarter - on - quarter [17]. - The proportion of interest - rate bonds in fund bond holdings decreased the most. At the end of Q3 2025, the proportions of financial bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit in bond holdings increased by 0.18 pct, 0.88 pct, and 0.13 pct respectively, while those of interest - rate bonds and other bonds decreased by 1.16 pct and 0.04 pct respectively [19]. 2. Hybrid Bond Fund Stock - Holding Analysis - The market values of stocks held by hybrid secondary bond funds and hybrid primary bond funds were 201.1 billion yuan and 6.3 billion yuan respectively, with quarter - on - quarter increases of 91.7 billion yuan and 866 million yuan, and growth rates of 84% and 16% respectively [22]. - In terms of the top five industries by market value in the heavy - holding stocks of hybrid secondary bond funds, they were electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and media. In terms of quarter - on - quarter changes, electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, media, and pharmaceutical biology were the most over - allocated, while public utilities, banks, building decoration, steel, and beauty care were the most under - allocated [22]. 3. Bond Fund Bond - Holding Analysis 3.1 All Bond Funds: Total Bond - Holding Scale Drops, Interest - Rate Bond Allocation Proportion Decreases - By the end of Q3 2025, the total value of bonds held by bond - type funds was about 11.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 910.1 billion yuan or 7.27% compared with Q2 2025. The market values of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased by 612.3 billion yuan, 143.4 billion yuan, 39 billion yuan, 73.8 billion yuan, and 41.6 billion yuan respectively [23]. - The proportions of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased. The proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds in bond investment market value were 42.15%, 20.59%, 30.55%, 2.35%, and 4.36% respectively, with quarter - on - quarter changes of - 1.83 pct, 0.35 pct, 1.91 pct, - 0.42 pct, and - 0.02 pct respectively [23]. - The proportions of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds in all bond funds decreased, while those of enterprise bonds, short - term financing bills, and medium - term notes increased [27]. 3.2 Medium - and Long - Term Pure Bond Funds: Treasury Bond Allocation Proportion Drops - By the end of Q3 2025, the total value of bonds held by medium - and long - term pure bond funds was about 6.88 trillion yuan, a decrease of 11.41% compared with Q2 2025. Interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased by 12.76%, 11.94%, 4.24%, 24.26%, and 31.84% respectively [29]. - The proportion of interest - rate bonds decreased. The proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds in bond investment market value were 48.62%, 22.20%, 25.15%, 1.64%, and 2.4% respectively, with quarter - on - quarter changes of - 0.75 pct, - 0.13 pct, 1.88 pct, - 0.28 pct, and - 0.72 pct respectively [29]. - The proportion of treasury bonds decreased, while that of policy - bank bonds increased. The proportions of enterprise bonds, short - term financing bills, and medium - term notes increased [32]. 3.3 Short - Term Pure Bond Funds: Financial Bond Allocation Proportion Drops - By the end of Q3 2025, the total value of bonds held by short - term pure bond funds was about 1.003 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.68% compared with Q2 2025. Interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased by 10.50%, 30.67%, 20.47%, 37.44%, and 28.41% respectively [36]. - The proportion of financial bonds decreased. The proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds in bond investment market value were 15.67%, 16.92%, 64.01%, 2.66%, and 0.74% respectively, with quarter - on - quarter changes of 1.96 pct, - 2.19 pct, 0.98 pct, - 0.67 pct, and - 0.07 pct respectively [37]. - The proportion of treasury bonds decreased, while that of policy - bank bonds increased. The proportions of enterprise bonds and short - term financing bills increased [39]. 4. Fund Heavy - Holding Bond Structure Analysis: Treasury Bond Holding Proportion Rises Continuously - In Q3 2025, the structure of interest - rate bonds in the heavy - holding bonds of bond - type funds remained basically unchanged. The proportions of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds were 11.63%, 1.32%, and 87.05% respectively, with changes of 0.01 pct, - 0.02 pct, and 0.01 pct compared with Q2 2025 [42]. - Bond - type funds increased the allocation ratio of industrial bonds with AA and below ratings and decreased the allocation ratios of industrial bonds with AAA and AA + ratings. The proportions of AAA, AA +, AA, and below AA industrial bonds were 94.71%, 4.40%, 0.75%, and 0.15% respectively [43]. - Bond - type funds increased the allocation ratio of AA + rated urban investment bonds and decreased the allocation ratios of AAA and AA and below rated urban investment bonds. The proportions of AAA, AA +, AA, and below AA urban investment bonds were 60.59%, 31.98%, 7.10%, and 0.32% respectively [44]. - In terms of regions, bond - type funds still mainly held urban investment bonds from Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong at the end of Q3 2025. The holding proportions in Jiangsu, Chongqing and other regions increased quarter - on - quarter, while those in Shandong, Guangdong and other regions decreased [45][46]. 5. Fund Leverage and Duration Analysis: Both Leverage Ratio and Duration Decrease - In Q3, the leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds decreased. The leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds were 117.38%, 112.64%, and 110.82% respectively, with decreases of 2.82 pct, 3.97 pct, and 3.02 pct compared with Q2 2025 [48]. - In Q3, the durations of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds decreased. The durations of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds were 2.96 years, 2.8 years, and 2.92 years respectively, with decreases of 0.8 years, 1.27 years, and 0.9 years compared with Q2 2025 [48]. 6. Fund Performance Analysis: Performance of Products with Equity Exposure Increases Significantly - In Q3 2025, the median quarterly returns of various funds were ranked as follows: stock - type funds (20.67%) > hybrid funds (19.51%) > secondary bond funds (2.6%) > money market funds (0.29%) > short - term pure bond funds (0.23%) > primary bond funds (0.19%) > medium - and long - term pure bonds (- 0.29%) > ChinaBond CDB Bond Total Full Price Index (- 1.18%) > ChinaBond Treasury Bond Total Full Price Index (- 1.84%) [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, credit bonds are expected to show a volatile trend, but there are certain participation opportunities. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to buy medium - and high - grade varieties on dips. The ticket - coupon strategy is the main approach, and attention should be paid to the investment opportunities brought by the centralized position - building of amortized fixed - open bond funds [1][28]. - The supply of credit bonds in November may increase seasonally, but the incremental supply is not expected to be large. The demand side shows that bank wealth management still has increments, and the impact of the new public offering regulations on bond funds is expected to be limited [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Bond Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 October Credit Bond Market Review - In October, credit bond yields declined across the board, with the decline more than that of the same - term interest - rate bonds. Medium - and long - term bonds performed better than short - term bonds, and general credit bonds outperformed financial bonds [11]. - By week, the performance of credit bonds was affected by factors such as holiday data, tariff frictions, equity markets, risk - aversion sentiment, policy expectations, and the restart of treasury bond trading. The yields and spreads of credit bonds showed different trends in each week [10]. - As of November 2, the full - caliber wealth management scale dropped to 31.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.1 billion yuan from the previous week. The net - breaking rates of all bank wealth management products and wealth management subsidiaries decreased [13]. 3.1.2 November Credit Bond Market Outlook - Supply: Seasonally, credit bond supply usually increases in November, but considering the continuous contraction of urban investment bond supply, the supply increment this year may not be large [20]. - Demand: Bank wealth management is expected to have positive growth in November, but the incremental growth may continue to narrow. If the new public offering regulations are mitigated, the impact on bond funds may be limited [20]. - Overall, credit bonds are expected to fluctuate in November. There are participation opportunities, but it is difficult to have an independent trend. It is recommended to buy medium - and high - grade varieties on dips. Pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the centralized position - building of amortized fixed - open bond funds [28]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Issuance Volume - In October 2025, the credit bond issuance scale was 1492.311 billion yuan, an increase of 161.8 billion yuan year - on - year and a decrease of 270.9 billion yuan month - on - month. The net financing amount was 310.974 billion yuan, a decrease of 132.1 billion yuan year - on - year and an increase of 140.4 billion yuan month - on - month [34]. - By type, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 5.838 billion yuan, while that of industrial bonds and financial bonds was 300.042 billion and 16.77 billion yuan respectively [34]. 3.2.2 Issuance Cost - From October 1 to 31, the average issuance interest rate of credit bonds was 2.22%, a decrease of 8.4bp compared with September. The average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds decreased, while that of financial bonds increased [39]. 3.2.3 Issuance Term - From October 1 to 31, the average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.95 years, a decrease of 0.01 year compared with September. The average issuance terms of industrial bonds and financial bonds increased, while that of urban investment bonds decreased [48]. 3.2.4 Cancellation of Issuance - In October, 27 credit bonds were cancelled for issuance, with a cancellation scale of 10.687 billion yuan, a decrease of 26 bonds and 17.993 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous month [49]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - In October, the trading volume of all credit bond varieties except insurance sub - bonds decreased compared with the previous month. The trading volume of bank secondary capital bonds decreased the most, followed by bank perpetual bonds [54]. - By trading term, 1 - 5 - year urban investment bonds were more popular. The trading performance of industrial bonds varied by term, and the trading terms of bank perpetual bonds and some other bonds also showed different trends [54]. - By implied rating, the trading of urban investment bonds shifted from medium - rated to other ratings, while that of industrial bonds shifted to high - rated bonds [55]. 3.3.2 Trading Liquidity - In October, the turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all decreased. By trading term, the turnover rate of 1 - 3 - year urban investment bonds decreased the most, and that of less than 1 - year industrial and financial bonds decreased the most [57]. 3.3.3 Spread Tracking - In October, the spreads of all urban investment bond varieties narrowed, with medium - and long - term spreads narrowing more significantly. The 5 - year AA - rated variety had the largest narrowing amplitude of 22bp [62]. - By region, most spreads in October narrowed, with the narrowing amplitude of each province not exceeding 5bp [66]. - In October, the spreads of AAA - rated and AA - rated industrial bonds in all industries narrowed, with the AA - rated bonds having a larger average narrowing amplitude [67]. - In October, the spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds narrowed, with medium - and long - term spreads narrowing more significantly [70]. - In October, most spreads of securities sub - bonds narrowed, while those of insurance sub - bonds narrowed across the board [72]. 3.4 October Hot Bonds Overview - The report selects the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores for investors' reference [74]. 3.5 Credit Rating Adjustment Review - In October, 7 bonds had their debt ratings upgraded, and there were no downgrades [78].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes a shift in macroeconomic anchors with a focus on fiscal policy leading and monetary policy supporting, leading to a convergence of interest rate cut expectations towards the "natural rate" [1] - It discusses the micro changes in bond market pricing, highlighting the increasing influence of interbank systems on bond pricing and the growing proportion of multi-asset investors in the bond market [1] - The article predicts a weak oscillation pattern in the bond market for 2026, with a return of ticket interest rate strategies and a focus on flexible varieties for wave operations [1] Group 2 - The article suggests a focus on diversified fixed-income assets in a low-interest-rate environment, identifying structural opportunities in convertible bonds, public/private REITs, Chinese dollar bonds, and overseas bonds [1] - It notes that bond ETFs may become a new development direction amid the expanding yield gap in a low-interest-rate environment [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the returns of the simulated portfolios generally declined, with the credit - style portfolio returns mostly higher than the interest - rate style. The investment in Pu - xin bonds (普信债) was advantageous, and the capital gains of the urban investment bond heavy - position strategy contributed significantly to the returns [2][3]. - In the past four weeks, the urban investment bond duration strategy balanced returns and defensiveness well. The excess returns of medium - long - term and ultra - long - term strategies were significantly compressed [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Combination Strategy Return Tracking - **Combination Weekly Return Overview**: As of October 24, the cumulative returns of the interest - rate style and credit - style portfolios this year have been continuously lagging behind the same period in the past two years. Among the main credit - style portfolios, the urban investment short - end sinking, urban investment bullet - type, and certificate of deposit bullet - type portfolios had leading cumulative comprehensive returns of 1.26%, 0.86%, and 0.84% respectively. This week, the returns of the simulated portfolios generally declined, with the credit - style portfolio returns mostly higher than the interest - rate style. In the interest - rate style portfolio, the urban investment ultra - long - type and industrial ultra - long - type strategies had smaller drawdowns, with weekly returns of - 0.03% and - 0.04% respectively. In the credit - style portfolio, the urban investment ultra - long - type and industrial ultra - long - type strategies led in returns, reaching 0.41% and 0.4% respectively. The Pu - xin bond heavy - position strategy was advantageous [10][14][15]. - **Combination Weekly Return Source**: The coupon of various strategy portfolios continued to decline, while the capital gains of the urban investment bond heavy - position strategy contributed significantly. Among the mainstream credit - style strategies, the weekly coupon decline of the second - tier bond bullet - type and duration portfolios exceeded 0.13bp, while the annualized coupons of the urban investment bond duration and dumbbell - type strategies remained above 2.19%, exceeding the readings of portfolios such as perpetual bond duration and securities firm bond sinking. This week, the divergence in return sources was relatively large, and the coupon contribution of the credit - style portfolio generally fell within the range of 10% - 70%, with the readings of the urban investment bond heavy - position strategy mostly below 40%, indicating rich capital gains [3][25]. 3.2 Credit Strategy Excess Return Tracking - In the past four weeks, the urban investment bond duration strategy balanced returns and defensiveness well. Except for the commercial financial bond bullet - type portfolio, the other medium - long - term strategies had certain excess returns in the past month. The cumulative excess returns of the perpetual bond duration, second - tier bond duration, and urban investment dumbbell - type portfolios reached 18.5bp, 14.7bp, and 5.1bp respectively. However, the possibility of volatility and correction was greater than that of other strategies. Among the low - volatility portfolios, the urban investment bond duration strategy with leading returns was worth attention [4][29]. - In terms of strategy duration, the excess returns of medium - long - term and ultra - long - term strategies were significantly compressed. In the short - term, the certificate of deposit strategy showed a negative deviation from the benchmark for four consecutive weeks, while the excess return of the urban investment sinking strategy gradually expanded. Except for the securities firm bond sinking, urban investment duration, and dumbbell - type portfolios, the excess returns of the other medium - long - term strategies were negative. The ultra - long - term strategy performance was divergent, with the urban investment and industrial ultra - long - type strategies having small excess returns, while the reading of the second - tier ultra - long - type strategy dropped to - 25.6bp, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period [4][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - fall asset spectrum during the bond market adjustment period is: Treasury bonds > Certificates of deposit > Urban investment bonds > Bank perpetual bonds > Bank secondary capital bonds. Low - grade urban investment bonds sometimes show resilience beyond their credit ratings in liquidity - driven adjustments, and investors can return to the coupon strategy under liquidity pressure [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Adjustment Review and Core Driving Factors - The bond market generally shows a characteristic of "long bull and short bear". In recent years, the bond market yield has been oscillating downward, but there have been several sharp market drops. Since 2020, the bond market has experienced six significant adjustments. Except for the large - scale and long - lasting adjustment in 2020, during the other five adjustments, the adjustment range of the 10Y Treasury bond yield was generally concentrated between 10 - 30bp, and the adjustment duration was concentrated between 10 - 30 days [2][13]. - The core driving factors of the six adjustments can be summarized into three categories: - Monetary policy and liquidity drive (e.g., May 2020, August 2023, February 2025): Central bank actively tightens or marginally tightens liquidity, rapid increase in capital interest rates, or supply shocks and credit events leading to liquidity stratification. Short - term interest rates usually rise more than long - term ones, and the yield curve flattens bearishly [17]. - Economic growth and inflation expectation drive (e.g., February 2022): Macro - economic data such as PMI and credit are better than expected, or there is significant inflation pressure (PPI, CPI). The market forms a solid consensus of "fundamental improvement", which is the core signal of the bull - to - bear transition. Long - term interest rates rise more significantly, and the term spread may widen [27]. - Policy drive (e.g., September 2024): Caused by major policies such as real estate and epidemic prevention or external events such as trade tariffs, the market's economic expectation for the future changes fundamentally, and funds flow from safe - haven assets to risk assets [28]. 2. Anti - fall Asset Selection Matrix under Different Driving Factors - Credit bonds are afraid of liability - side shocks, and interest - rate bonds are afraid of fundamental repair expectations. When institutional behavior dominates, interest - rate bonds are more anti - fall; when fundamental repair expectations dominate, credit bonds are relatively more anti - fall [29]. - **Monetary policy and liquidity drive (e.g., August 2023, February 2025)**: The anti - fall degree of various assets (the smaller the yield increase, the more anti - fall) is: Low - grade urban investment bonds (short - term) > Treasury bonds (medium - long - term) > Certificates of deposit ≈ High - grade urban investment bonds (short - term) > Perpetual and secondary capital bonds (all terms). Under liquidity shocks, low - grade urban investment bonds and interest - rate bonds, especially medium - long - term Treasury bonds, are the most anti - fall. Certificates of deposit have a medium adjustment range as they are directly affected by capital interest rates. Perpetual and secondary capital bonds have the most severe adjustment and are the most vulnerable due to their duration and liquidity premium risks [3][29]. - **Multiple factors such as policy drive + economic growth and inflation expectation (e.g., August 2022, September 2024)**: The anti - fall degree of assets is: Treasury bonds (short - term) > Certificates of deposit > Treasury bonds (medium - long - term) > High - grade perpetual/urban investment bonds > Low - grade perpetual bonds > Low - grade urban investment bonds. Short - term Treasury bonds and certificates of deposit are relatively insensitive to changes in risk appetite. Long - term interest - rate bonds are significantly adjusted due to improved fundamental expectations. Credit bonds, especially low - grade ones, have the largest adjustment range, and funds flow from low - grade credit bonds to risk assets such as equities. Overall, Treasury bonds > Certificates of deposit > Urban investment bonds > Bank perpetual bonds > Bank secondary capital bonds. Low - grade urban investment bonds can attract some investors to adopt the coupon strategy in the liquidity pressure stage due to their relatively high coupon income, thus showing better anti - fall characteristics than high - grade credit bonds in some periods [4][30]. 3. Summary of Common Characteristics of Anti - fall Assets and Investment Suggestions - Assets with strong anti - fall ability generally have higher liquidity, lower duration risk, and stronger safe - haven attributes. The anti - fall ability of low - grade urban investment bonds partly comes from their "high coupon" feature. In periods of high volatility and uncertainty, some investors turn to the "coupon strategy" [37]. - **Investment suggestions**: - Predict the decline space based on driving factors. Find 1 - 2 adjustments with the most similar driving factors, macro - environment, and market structure from historical reviews as a "reference". When expecting liquidity tightening or institutional behavior shocks, significantly shorten the portfolio duration and increase the allocation of certificates of deposit [39]. - Choose to take profits in time based on odds factors. The assets with the largest adjustment in a sharp bond market decline are often those that were over - bought due to crowded trading, such as short - term interest - rate bonds from January to February this year [39]. - Build a "core - satellite" asset portfolio: Use interest - rate bonds and certificates of deposit as the core ballast to provide anti - fall ability during bond market adjustments, and use perpetual and secondary capital bonds and urban investment bonds to seek higher coupons and excess returns [39]. - Use perpetual and secondary capital bonds as the "reverse indicator" of the market: They are both a signal of market over - optimism and risk accumulation when their spreads narrow significantly and trading is crowded, and an early indicator of market adjustment, suggesting reducing risk assets and switching to a defensive mode [39]. - Use the low - grade urban investment bond coupon strategy as a buffer for fluctuations: In the stage of rising market volatility without systematic credit risk, carefully select short - to - medium - term low - grade urban investment bonds with reliable cash flows, and adopt the "buy and hold to maturity" strategy to obtain high coupons. In the current market environment where the downward space of interest rates is limited and volatility is increasing, the allocation value of the coupon strategy is prominent [40].

Core Viewpoint - Since July, long-end interest rates have been fluctuating upwards, leading to structural resilience in credit bond yields and significant declines in certain varieties, particularly under the influence of macroeconomic narratives and regulatory factors [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The credit bond market has shown structural resilience and significant declines in specific varieties since the third quarter, with short-term credit bonds experiencing minimal yield increases, generally within 10 basis points [2] - Long-end credit bonds, particularly perpetual bonds, have seen yield increases of over 30 to 50 basis points, indicating a more pronounced decline compared to ordinary credit bonds [2] - Historical data suggests that credit bonds typically perform better in the fourth quarter, with overall yields generally declining, except for 2022 when policy shifts caused adjustments [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Analysts recommend focusing on short-term credit bonds, particularly those with maturities of 2 to 3 years, as they have shown better performance during market adjustments [5] - For 4 to 5-year bank perpetual bonds, the current yield spread has exceeded the annual high, indicating a favorable entry point for institutions [5] - The current credit spreads for ultra-long credit bonds are nearing two-year highs, and there is an increasing interest from market participants, suggesting potential investment opportunities [6]