将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 一笔S交易，引发连锁暴跌。 | 作者丨 | 陶辉东 | | --- | --- | | 编辑丨 | 王庆武 | | 来源丨 | 投中网 | PE行业正在上演诡异的一幕： 一方面，各家PE巨头们基本都发布了亮眼的财报，募资额暴增，并实现了创纪录的利润。黑石去年净利润21.4亿美元，同比翻了一倍，创下"四十年最 强业绩"；KKR去年Q4单季募资430亿美元创下四年新高；阿波罗全球全年募资2280亿美元创历史 纪录 ，利润超出市场预期…… 与此同时，它们的股价却一泻千里。刚刚过去的 2 月，几乎成了PE行业的"股灾"之月——黑石的股价单月跌幅达20%，KKR跌了30%，阿波罗全球资 管跌了29%，Ares Managemant跌了33%，凯雷跌了12%，TPG跌了33%。 2月的最后一个交易日（2月27日），又是集体大跳水的一天。黑石跌了3.88%，KKR跌了6.34%，阿波罗全球资管跌了8.57%……这样不讲道理的跌 法，让人恍如回到了2008年金融危机。 虽然，事后来看这两件事中舆论都有点过分夸大了AI的能力，AI还没那么快在专业工作上替代人类。但对传统SaaS商业 ...

今日早参 2026 年 3 月 04 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 1 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 吴宛忆 SAC:S0570524090005 SFC:BVN199 王洺硕 SAC:S0570525070003 SFC:BUP051 常慧丽 SAC:S0570520110002 SFC:BJC906 今日热点 宏观：美国私募信贷市场波动进一步加大 2025 年以来，美国私募信贷市场（private credit）风险进一步暴露，并与 AI 恐慌形成共振，部分私募基金遭遇赎回潮，引发市场广泛关注。我们认为， 疫情以来美国私募信贷市场快速膨胀积累了一定脆弱性，不排除后续仍有零 星风险事件暴露，但考虑到 2026 年美国经济增长超预期修复（参见《再度 上调 2026 年美国 GDP 增长预测》，2026/1/11），且私募信贷市场体量不大， 银行对其直接敞口不高，私募信贷市场波动或难演变为系统性金融风险。 风险提示：私募信贷风险事件暴露超预期，美国金融条件超预期收紧。 研报发布日期： ...

So, look, I mean, there's certainly been a lot of traffic. And I think the question everyone's focused on right now is the duration and what's happening in the oil markets. And that really seems to be sort of the focus of the conversations right now.And unfortunately, I think this is a situation where we're going to have to wait and see. Right. We have Halima Croft, who's weighing in on this for us.And she's warned that there could be, you know, the possibility that things could go on a bit longer than peop ...

"我们开始不断看到这类事件冒头，这绝对令人担忧，"Themis Trading的权益交易联席主管Joe Saluzzi 表示。他补充称，他现在已开始担心问题的严重程度。 周五，华尔街贷款机构因英国一家名不见经传的抵押贷款供应商——MFS的破产而遭受重创。此举加剧 了市场对银行面临更大损失的担忧，并再次引发了关于蓬勃发展的私募信贷行业中会出现更多"蟑螂"的 警告。 MFS的破产加速了周五美股市场上金融股和另类资产管理公司的全面抛售。由于担心行业内的贷款标 准问题，市场正在努力应对信用传染风险扩大的前景。 与去年爆雷的美国汽车贷款机构Tricolor Holdings类似，MFS也是一家非银行金融公司，旨在填补大型 银行忽略或避开的市场空白，同时向这些华尔街巨头拆借资金以开展业务。而其轰然倒塌的过程也几乎 与去年破产的汽车零部件供应商First Brands相似——银行原本对有形抵押品感到放心，结果却因"重复 质押"的指控动摇了这种信心。 甚至连一些涉事的华尔街机构的名字都如出一辙：桑坦德银行和杰富瑞金融集团如今再次陷入困境，正 竭力从这家陷入泥潭的公司中尽可能挽回资金——这两家银行近几个月都曾因First Br ...

投资者周五涌入美国国债避险，收益率全线下行。由于下周公司债发行安排密集，掉期利差大幅收窄。 一连串看涨对冲交易将看涨期权偏斜推至今年以来最高水平。美国与伊朗会谈结果的不确定性仍在，而 股市因投资者对人工智能颠覆性以及私募信贷的不安情绪而下跌。月末需求也在发挥作用，可能为国债 提供了额外一层支撑。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：王许宁 投资者周五涌入美国国债避险，收益率全线下行。由于下周公司债发行安排密集，掉期利差大幅收窄。 一连串看涨对冲交易将看涨期权偏斜推至今年以来最高水平。美国与伊朗会谈结果的不确定性仍在，而 股市因投资者对人工智能颠覆性以及私募信贷的不安情绪而下跌。月末需求也在发挥作用，可能为国债 提供了额外一层支撑。 在美国时段尾盘，2年期收益率跌至2022年以来最低水平，10年期收益率触及10月份以来最低水平。 纽约时间下午3点后不久，收益率仍接近日内低点，曲线全线较前一交易日收低约3个基点至5个基点， 曲线前端和中段债券领涨。 与美联储会议挂钩的隔夜指数掉期合约出现偏鸽派走势：市场充分消化25基点降息的时机从9月份美联 储政策会议提前至7 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported net investment income of $0.45 per share, a slight decrease from $0.46 in the prior quarter [4][17] - Net asset value (NAV) per share declined to $19.10 as of December 31, 2025, down from $19.28 at the end of Q3 2025, reflecting unrealized losses from certain portfolio companies [4][17] - The company maintained a net debt to equity ratio of 1.20 times, below the upper end of its target range of 1.30 times, preserving flexibility for portfolio growth [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The investment portfolio at fair value totaled approximately $1.6 billion, consistent with the prior quarter, across a diversified portfolio of 184 companies [10][17] - The weighted average yield on income-producing securities at cost decreased by 40 basis points quarter-over-quarter, ending the year at 10% [13] - Non-accruals increased from 3.3% and 1.6% as of September 30 to 4.1% and 2% as of December 31, driven by two new non-accrual investments [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The private credit market remains competitive, with strong capital formation across direct lending strategies leading to tighter spreads and evolving deal structures [9] - The company noted subdued exit activity in private equity over the past three years, with sponsors favoring recapitalizations and dividend transactions [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes capital preservation and is actively managing its portfolio to maintain long-term NAV stability [5] - The focus remains on protecting capital, enhancing sustainable earnings power, and delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns for shareholders [21] - The management is reviewing options to ensure durable earnings and attractive returns across market cycles, with a more detailed update expected in May [7][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged earnings headwinds facing the BDC space due to forward base rate expectations but remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for private credit [7][10] - The company is positioned well for near-term stability, over-earning its dividend and maintaining a diversified portfolio supported by experienced sponsors [28][21] Other Important Information - The board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.42 per share for Q1 2026, payable on April 15, 2026 [4][19] - The company has a buyback program in place, balancing share repurchases with new investment opportunities [41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on long-term positioning and dividend structure - Management indicated that the review focuses on long-term earnings durability and alignment with shareholders, including evaluation of fee structure and base dividend level [27][28] Question: Details on non-accrual exit and sale - One non-accrual investment was realized at close to the mark [30] Question: Future earnings and spread expectations - Management noted that spreads have stabilized for high-quality assets, and there is optimism for increased deal activity as financing markets stabilize [33] Question: Main drivers of realized gains and unrealized losses - Realized gains were driven by an investment sold during the quarter, while unrealized losses were primarily from two investments placed on non-accrual [36][37] Question: Rationale for reinvesting proceeds instead of buybacks - The company is focused on durable, long-term income for shareholders and is balancing new investments with share repurchases [41][42] Question: Status of supplemental dividend policy - The supplemental dividend policy remains in place, but no supplemental dividend will be paid for Q4 earnings due to NAV constraints [43][44]

来源：环球市场播报 资产支持融资（ABF）将引领增长。随着合作模式和资产发起（origination）活动加速，ABF将成为增 长核心。另类资产管理公司正寻求为更加多样化的新资产池提供资金——尤其是消费贷款和数据基础设 施信贷。新的合作关系正在催生资产发起机会，而在部分贷款领域银行仍受监管约束的情况下，另类资 产管理机构将继续扩大参与度。 更广泛的资产类别将支持证券化增长。私募信贷在证券化产品领域的影响力不断扩大，尤其集中在高收 益能够补偿资产风险的板块——特别是在不同资产类别利差收窄的背景下。 创新将支持不断增长的流动性需求。私募信贷比以往更加依赖金融创新工具，例如结构化信贷、评级基 金结构、净资产值（NAV）贷款以及实物支付利息贷款（PIK贷款），以满足另类流动性融资需求。常 青基金的采用率上升也正在重塑管理人的分销渠道。 监管护栏仍将有限，但对透明度的关注将增加。在全球范围内，监管机构总体上继续支持私募信贷在满 足资本需求方面发挥更大作用。但同时也保持谨慎。例如，英格兰银行最近启动了一项针对私募市场的 系统性探索性情景分析。 随着互联性增强，风险将上升。私募信贷基金与传统金融机构之间的联系正在加深，这在 ...

每经记者｜李蕾 每经编辑｜陈柯名 彭水萍 近日，独立研究机构Citrini Research发布了一份报告，阐释人工智能对全球经济的潜在风险，美股因此引发广泛讨论，甚至出现恐慌性抛售。配送、支 付、软件类股票周一大幅下挫，黑石、KKR等被报告点名的全球PE巨头也未能幸免。 不仅如此，就在几天前，美国资产管理公司蓝鸮资本（Blue Owl）宣布不得不出售资产，以满足投资者集中赎回某只基金的需求，引发市场紧张。这一事 件也导致包括阿波罗、KKR和黑石在内的多家PE巨头股价应声下跌。 2月19日至23日，黑石三个交易日股价累计下跌超15%，KKR累计跌幅也超11%，跌幅远超市场预期。 站在一级市场投资机构的角度，到底发生了什么？ 假想报告的警示： AI或触发私募信贷连锁"崩塌" Citrini Research这份题为《2028全球智能危机》的报告并非当下市场分析，而是以2028年6月为视角的"金融史思想实验"。 报告在核心论点中指出，AI的通缩力量若失控，将成为针对"中介"和"白领工资"的经济瘟疫，而私募信贷市场崩塌，会是金融系统危机的核心导火索。这 份报告虽为假想推演，也成为此次美股波动的重要情绪推手。 在报告 ...

( 图片来源：《澳华财经在线》) 【财经要闻 及评论 】 李嘉诚旗下企业屈臣氏集团考虑收购澳洲Priceline药房连锁 亚洲最大的零售药店运营商之一、亿万富豪李嘉诚旗下企业屈臣氏集团考虑进军澳大利亚药房行业，可 能将收购一批Priceline门店。 据《澳金融评论报》，三位要求匿名的消息人士证实，一家亚洲制药巨头计划对Priceline药房集团进行 尽职调查。多位消息人士还表示，屈臣氏的高管几年前访澳，当时曾会见Priceline运营方Infinity Pharmacy Group的创始合伙人。 屈臣氏集团若有意收购Priceline药房，需获得澳外国投资审查委员会（FIRB）的批准。 屈臣氏发言人目前拒绝对"市场猜测"置评。 对Priceline门店感兴趣的其他买家包括几家私募股权公司，以及本地药房集团Chemist Warehouse、 TerryWhite Chemmart、Star Pharmacy Group等。 Teneo已为尽职调查筛选出约25家候选方，预计3月初将收到意向性报价。 Infinity为西农集团（Wesfarmers Ltd，ASX股票代码:WES)）旗下药品批发业务澳大利亚制药 ...

Market Overview - Technology stocks dragged down US markets, halting two consecutive days of gains for major indices. The financial sector led the decline in the S&P 500, with asset management firm Blue Owl dropping nearly 6% after restricting fund redemptions. Walmart's annual guidance was disappointing, leading to a drop of over 1%. Apple fell more than 1%, underperforming among the "Tech Giants" [2][3] - European stock indices and the UK market fell from record highs, with Airbus dropping nearly 7% and Renault over 3% due to poor earnings guidance. Conversely, Nestlé's positive outlook led to a nearly 4% increase in its stock [2] - Following US unemployment data, Treasury yields approached recent highs, and the dollar rose above 98, reaching a four-week high. The offshore yuan fell for three consecutive days, dropping over 100 points to breach 6.90. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $66,000 before rebounding over 2% [2] Key News - Trump stated that the US and Iran must reach a meaningful agreement, warning of "bad things" if not achieved within the next ten days. Netanyahu emphasized Israel's readiness to act alongside the US against Iranian threats [3][7] - Blue Owl Capital's restriction on redemptions and loan sales raised concerns about the $1.8 trillion private credit market, causing its stock to drop about 10% intraday [3][10] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang previewed unprecedented chip products, with the next-generation Feynman architecture expected to be a focal point. Huang urged timely delivery of HBM4 chips from SK Hynix [3][11] - Samsung and SK Hynix are adjusting strategies, with plans to expedite production schedules for new storage factories due to AI data center expansion leading to supply shortages. Samsung's stock surged to an all-time high amid reports of a 30% price increase for HBM4 chips [3][11] - OpenAI is finalizing a new funding round with an estimated valuation of $830 billion, aiming to raise up to $100 billion, with significant investments expected from SoftBank, Amazon, Nvidia, and Microsoft [3][12] - Foreign investment in Japanese stocks reached the highest weekly net purchase since 2014, driven by fiscal expansion plans and a weak yen benefiting exporters [3][12] Market Closing - US markets closed with the S&P 500 down 0.28% at 6861.89 points, the Dow Jones down 0.54% at 49395.16 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.31% at 22682.729 points. European STOXX 600 index fell 0.53% to 625.33 points [4] - In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell by 0.96 basis points to 4.0731%, while the 2-year yield rose by 0.62 basis points to 3.4657% [4] - WTI crude oil futures rose by 1.90% to $66.43 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 1.86% to $71.66 per barrel. Spot gold increased by 0.42% to $4998.50 per ounce [4]