曾因精准做空能源巨头安然（Enron）而一战成名的华尔街传奇空头查诺斯（Jim Chanos），如今盯上了一个 2万亿美元规模的庞大市场——私募信贷 （Private Credit）。 在他看来，当下蓬勃发展的私募信贷市场，其运作模式与引爆2008年全球金融危机的次级抵押贷款如出一辙。 两者最大的共同点在于"资金来源和最终使用之 间存在多层结构"，这种复杂性掩盖了真实风险。 近期，美国汽车零部件制造商First Brands Group的轰然倒塌，及其暴露出的近120亿美元复杂债务，或许正是这场潜在风暴来临前的"第一声惊雷"。 "神奇机器"的真相：高收益下的"首个危险信号" 近年来，私募信贷市场迅速崛起，成为企业（尤其是无法或不愿进入公开债券市场的企业）的重要融资渠道，并以其惊人的回报率吸引着全球机构投资者的目 光。 查诺斯将其形容为一个"神奇的机器"：机构投资者将资金投入其中，通过承担优先债务的风险敞口，却能获得堪比股权投资的回报率。 "这种看似安全的投资所提供的高收益，本身就应该是第一个危险信号，"查诺斯表示。 他认为，这种高收益并非源于价值创造，而是源于精心设计的复杂结构。与2008年的次贷危机类似，风 ...

就像时钟一样，每六个月，相似的剧情就会上演一次。"AI泡沫论"总会准时出现，引发市场短暂的恐慌，然后又迅速被 新一轮的狂热所淹没。 从高盛质疑其商业回报，到中国推出性价比极高的模型，再到甲骨文与OpenAI抛出震撼市场的3000亿美元"未来合约"， AI的质疑与狂欢交替上演。 然而，Zerohedge文章分析，在这场周期性辩论的背后，一个更深层次的结构性风险正在浮现：AI基础设施的竞赛正从一 场由科技巨头内部现金流支撑的马拉松，演变为一场依赖外部债务的"军备竞赛"。 当一个高达1.5万亿美元的资金缺口需要由本已承压的私市信贷市场来填补时，人们不禁要问：那只终将到来的"狼"，究 竟还有多远？ "AI泡沫论"准时上演 第一次大规模的担忧潮涌现在2024年6月。当时，高盛发布报告，直指生成式AI是否是"投入太多，获益太少"的资本无底 洞，即一个可能永远无法为投资者带来长期正回报的巨坑。这一质疑在科技界投下了一枚震撼弹。 然而，六个月过去了，在又烧掉了1000亿美元"完善"这个星球上最昂贵的聊天机器人后，清晰的盈利模式似乎仍未在美 国出现。相反，中国推出了名声大噪的DeepSeek大模型，它不仅是开源的，而且比美国的 ...

For more on what the Fed will do and what it means for opportunities in credit, we're joined now by Bruce Richards of Marathon Asset Managements. Good to see you. Welcome back.Good to see you. Well, that was timely uh for for our conversation. What do you think they're going to do next week.Cut. And by cut by 25 base points, 50 is off the table. 25.And it's a lock 100% probability priced in the market that they'll cut for each of the next three times this year, which is bringing rates down 75 bas. Why do yo ...

作为澳大利亚最大非银放贷机构之一，Metrics Credit Partners管理的多只主力基金被具影响力的投顾机构Lonsec下调评级，Lonsec并警告其公司治 理问题日益加剧。 来源：澳洲财经见闻 被下调的产品包括在澳交所上市的Metrics Income Opportunities Trust（MOT）与Metrics Master Income Trust（MXT），两者均为零售投资者提供企 业与地产信贷敞口。Metrics管理资产规模为300亿澳元，是全国向企业放贷的第九大机构。 此次下调对Metrics尤显尴尬，因为该公司过去一直以Lonsec的背书作为"金字招牌"。 Lonsec在MXT报告中称："Metrics迄今拥有亮眼的信用记录，费用也具竞争力。话虽如此，其公司治理中的某些领域增加了复杂性，仍有提升空 间。"Lonsec补充指出，"产品序列中另一只基金近期且重大的关联交易"亦为此次下调的动因之一，"同时债权与股权委员会缺乏隔离"。 私募信贷在信贷市场中占比不断扩大，截至去年年底规模约2,050亿澳元。据Alvarez & Marsal估算，其约占商业地产债的17%。 此前，Lonsec ...

Core Viewpoint - Private credit has become a popular asset class, but products like M Fund may mislead investors with unrealistic return expectations and complex fee structures [2][20]. Group 1: Return Expectations - The advertised annualized return of 9-12% for M Fund is hypothetical and lacks a verifiable track record [3][4]. - Investors should focus on actual net asset value performance and audited return data rather than simulated or projected figures [4][6]. Group 2: Fee Structure - M Fund has a complex fee structure that can significantly erode the actual returns received by investors [9][10]. - The fund charges fees at both the mother fund and sub-fund levels, leading to a "double fee" scenario [10][11]. - High redemption fees (up to 5%) further limit investor liquidity and choice [11]. Group 3: Risk and Return Disparity - There is a significant asymmetry between risk and return, where investors bear all losses while the fund company collects fees regardless of performance [12][14]. - This structure undermines the alignment of interests between the fund and its investors, with the fund benefiting at the investors' expense [14][13]. Group 4: Liquidity Issues - Private credit inherently has poor liquidity, and M Fund's structure compounds this issue, locking investors' funds [15][19]. - Historical examples show that even large institutions can face liquidity crises when overly invested in illiquid assets [15][16]. Group 5: Target Audience - Private credit may be suitable for institutional investors with long-term capital and the ability to conduct due diligence, rather than ordinary individual investors [21].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net asset value per share was $11.18, reflecting a 1% decline quarter over quarter [25] - Net investment income for the quarter was $0.28 per share, an increase from $0.25 per share in the prior quarter [12][27] - The weighted average yield at fair value remained unchanged at 10.1% [14] - The net leverage ratio was 1.29 times at quarter end, up from 1.24 times as of March 31 [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross originations were nearly $200 million, with net originations of $32 million [6] - Barings originated positions now make up 95% of the BBDC portfolio at fair value, up from 76% in 2022 [13] - Non-accrual rate improved to 50 basis points at fair value, well below industry averages [13][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The portfolio consists of 74% secured investments, with approximately 71% being first lien securities [21] - Interest coverage within the portfolio was 2.4 times, above industry averages [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on core middle market investments due to lower leverage and stronger risk-adjusted returns [6] - Emphasis on sectors that perform resiliently across economic environments to provide stability [6] - The company maintains a cautious optimism about the broader economy and is well-positioned to withstand various economic developments [7][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The economic outlook remains uncertain, but the company believes its durable portfolio construction will help navigate future challenges [16] - Management noted that macroeconomic events have not historically produced widespread defaults, with idiosyncratic risks being more significant [20] - The company expects increased M&A activity in the latter half of the year based on current market indicators [11] Other Important Information - The Board declared a third-quarter dividend of $0.26 per share, consistent with the prior quarter [14][30] - The company repurchased 100,000 shares during the quarter, totaling 250,000 shares under the current plan [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the profile of sales to Jakafi and overall leverage? - Management indicated that Jakafi has ample liquidity to absorb incremental investments and that they will continue to run leverage towards the higher end of their range due to strong credit quality [35][40] Question: How does the new name ScreenVision fit into the Barings platform? - Management noted that there is significant collaboration across investment teams, with a centralized sourcing process [43][44] Question: What percentage of originations were follow-ons versus new borrowers? - Approximately 60-70% of originations were follow-ons for existing borrowers [50] Question: How is the pipeline looking after the second quarter? - Management expressed optimism about forward visibility on origination, despite the same economic outlook as previous years [52] Question: How sustainable is the dividend given the forward curve? - Management expressed confidence in earning the dividend based on the current SAFR curve, despite potential changes due to rate cuts [60][62] Question: What is the current state of credit in the cycle? - Management indicated a constructive setup for credit, with modest growth and stable inflation, but acknowledged uncertainty in the future [63] Question: How is the share repurchase program being managed? - Management explained that tactical elements and blackout periods influence share repurchase activity, but they remain focused on shareholder accretive activities [68][70] Question: Is August seeing increased deal activity? - Management noted that while the pipeline is higher, it is too early to declare August as one of the busiest months [72][75]

Group 1 - The article highlights that tariff increases may exacerbate inflation in the U.S., potentially slowing down the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which could delay rate cuts by other global central banks [1] - A strong U.S. dollar may limit financing options for overseas borrowers, particularly in emerging markets, leading to increased domestic financing activities [1] - The final deadline for banks to implement the "Basel III Endgame" proposals is set for 2025, which aims to enhance risk management in the banking sector following the 2008 financial crisis [1] Group 2 - Professional financing is becoming crucial for various commercial, consumer, and investment needs globally, attracting borrowers due to its quick execution, certainty, and flexible terms [3] - Securities financing has proven to be a liquid funding source for both enterprises and individuals, offering flexibility, cost-effectiveness, and stability regardless of broader credit conditions [3] - Long-term shareholders can retain the upside potential of their holdings while raising funds for any purpose through securities financing at competitive prices [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's reported second quarter revenue of $1.9 billion, growing 4% year over year, despite a tough comparison to the previous year's 22% growth [5][6] - Adjusted operating margin reached 50.9%, up 130 basis points from a year ago, translating to adjusted diluted EPS of $3.56, a 9% increase [6][7] - The company narrowed its guidance ranges for rated issuance, MIS revenue, and EPS based on second quarter performance [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - MIS revenue was flat year over year at $1 billion, with a 1% decline when adjusted for positive FX effects [25] - Corporate Finance transaction revenue declined 6% year on year, while Investment Grade transaction revenue grew 18% on 16% issuance growth [26] - Moody's Analytics revenue grew 11%, with recurring revenue increasing by 12% and Decision Solutions showing double-digit growth [30][31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Private credit transactions accounted for nearly 25% of first-time mandates, with a 75% revenue growth in private credit across multiple lines of business [10][11] - The U.S. Public Finance group rated the highest quarterly issuance volume since 2007, with nearly 200 first-time mandates in the second quarter [28] - EMEA first-time mandates increased year over year, driven by private credit mandates [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Moody's is focused on strengthening its position in private credit markets and enhancing transparency and insights for investors [9][10] - The company is investing in partnerships, such as with MSCI, to leverage data and models for emerging investor needs [12][17] - Moody's aims to capitalize on digital transformation, AI adoption, and the expansion of private markets to drive long-term sustainable value [41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for the second half of the year, citing key credit themes that could influence performance [9] - The company is monitoring macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties that may affect issuance volumes [38] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong pipeline and executing on growth strategies despite market challenges [52] Other Important Information - Moody's Analytics achieved a 32.1% adjusted operating margin, a 360 basis point improvement year over year [13] - The company completed the acquisition of ICR Chile, enhancing its presence in the Latin American bond market [17] - Moody's is integrating GenAI capabilities across its product portfolio, with 40% of products now including some form of GenAI enablement [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Decision Solutions and KYC - Management acknowledged attrition from a strategic termination of a distribution partnership in KYC and ongoing ESG-related attrition, but emphasized strong growth in banking and insurance segments [45][46] Question: Potential Pull Forward of Issuance - Management indicated that there was no meaningful pull forward of issuance, noting healthy performance in both public and private credit markets [55][56] Question: Operating Margin Expansion - Management clarified that the operating margin expansion was due to disciplined expense management and not due to expense shifts from Q2 to later quarters [63][64] Question: Banking Sector Performance - Management noted that while there has been a decline in banking ARR, growth in lending products, particularly Credit Lens, is expected to drive future growth [70][71] Question: AI and GenAI Adoption - Management highlighted that while standalone AI revenue is not yet material, early adopters of GenAI are showing double the growth compared to other customers, indicating strong engagement [78][79] Question: Contribution of Private Credit to MIS Revenues - Management confirmed that private credit is contributing to several lines in the rating agency, with significant growth in asset-backed finance and first-time mandates [84][85]

Group 1 - The establishment of the "China International Science and Technology Promotion Association Mother Fund Branch" aims to enhance the role of mother funds in China's capital market and promote healthy development in the investment industry, particularly in mother funds [1][40][42] - The Hubei Provincial Government Investment Guidance Fund is a policy-oriented mother fund established by the Hubei provincial government, which is now inviting applications for GP selection [3][4] - The "West (Chongqing) Science City High-tech Startup Investment Fund" is being launched to strengthen financial services for the real economy in Chongqing, focusing on sectors like smart connected vehicles and biomedicine [12][22] Group 2 - The latest "Global Private Capital Barometer" by Coller Capital indicates that 45% of LPs plan to increase allocations to private credit assets, reflecting a shift towards more defensive investment strategies amid macroeconomic uncertainties [21][22][23] - The Nanjing Innovation Investment Group successfully issued a technology innovation corporate bond worth 1 billion yuan, marking a historical low interest rate for similar bonds [24][26][27] - Guangdong Hengjian Investment Holding Co., Ltd. successfully issued a 5 billion USD three-year senior fixed-rate bond, achieving the lowest issuance yield for local state-owned enterprises since 2023 [30][31] Group 3 - The UAE delegation visited Futian Capital to explore international capital cooperation opportunities, focusing on technology innovation and industry development [32][34][35] - China Resources Henan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. engaged in discussions with Yuzi Holdings Group to explore collaboration in the pharmaceutical sector [36][38][39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that PIMCO expects to favor global bonds maturing in 5 to 10 years over long-term bonds in the next five years, while maintaining a cautious stance on private credit due to potential threats from weakened economic growth to lower credit quality companies [1] Group 2 - PIMCO manages assets worth $2 trillion, indicating its significant influence in the asset management industry [1] - The company is adjusting its investment strategy in response to anticipated economic conditions, highlighting a shift towards shorter-duration bonds [1] - The cautious approach towards private credit reflects concerns about credit quality amid economic slowdown [1]