新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-10-12 宏观方面：美国联邦政府10月1日停摆，导致全球经济前景的不确定性增加。此外，美联储10月降息预期降温，美 元指数升至106.5，人民币汇率承压贬值至7.35，美元走强将对价格起到一定压制作用。国庆长假期间，国内出台 文旅与基建新政，强化了新能源与高端制造对关键金属的中长期需求预期。叠加市场对四季度 "稳增长" 政策加码 的期待，基本金属板块风险偏好显著提升。 供应：镍矿方面，周内镍矿市场较为平静，镍矿价格维稳运行。菲律宾方面，苏里高等矿区即将步入雨季，矿山 陆续停止出货。铁厂利润受挫，对原料镍矿采购维持谨慎。印尼方面，镍矿市场供应持续宽松格局。但印尼政府 将采矿许可证期限从3年缩短至1年，短期引发市场对 2026 年及以后供应稳定性的担忧。尽管当前 2025 年配额仍 有效，但政策调整增加了中长期产能释放的变数。 消费：9月不锈钢和电池材料需求基本保持稳定，合金及特钢耗镍量有一定增加。但考虑到"金九银十"为传统消费 旺季，整体消费增长情况不及预期。 成本利润：一体化MHP生产电积镍成本116448元/吨，利润4.40%；一体化高冰镍生产电积镍成本124802元/ ...

最近屡创新高的金银本周四经历戏剧性的盘中逆转。 外盘金银期货双双在创出盘中历史新高和几十年来新高后转跌，现货白银冲高回落，先是历史性地涨破50美元关口，而后回吐多数涨幅。期金和现货黄金盘 中均曾转涨跌幅，反映市场对贵金属长期牛市前景依然乐观。 周四美股盘前连续第四日创盘中最高纪录时，COMEX 12月黄金期货接近4078美元，日内涨近0.2%，现货黄金逼近4058美元，日内涨近0.4%，美股盘初均 转跌，午盘刷新日低时，期金跌至3958美元下方，日内跌近2.8%，现货黄金不足39451美元，日内跌2.4%。 COMEX 12月白银期货盘前一度涨至49.965美元，逼近1980年创下的50.35美元盘中最高纪录，但随后转跌，午盘刷新日低至46.89美元，日内跌4.3%。现货 白银在美股早盘曾涨至51美元上方，创1980年亨特兄弟操纵市场逼空事件以来新高，日内涨4.8%，但到美股午盘时，一度几乎抹平所有涨幅。 Cboe白银ETF波动指数（VXSLV）更是出现爆发式上涨，过去一年中每次波动性激增都伴随着白银的喘息或调整。 有评论认为，金银回落显示，在交易价最近数日累计大涨至技术性超买区域后，投资者选择获利了结。有分 ...

10月6日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜在盘中触及16个月高点后下滑，因美元走强引发的获 利了结超过了对智利和印尼供应的担忧。 伦敦时间10月6日17:00(北京时间10月7日00:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌61美元，或0.57%，收报每吨 10,654.5美元。该合约此前曾触及5月份以来的最高点10,800美元。周一的最高点代表着自4月初以来近 25%的涨幅。 | | 10月6日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张肤幅 | | 三个月期铜 | | 10,654.50 -61.00 -0.57% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,725.00 ↑ | +15.50 ↑ +0.57% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,007.00 ↓ | -27.50 J -0.91% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,004.50 ↓ | -15.50 -0.77% | | 三个月期镇 | 15,482.00 ↑ | +49.00 ↑ +0.32% | | 三个月期锡 | 36,798.00 -657.00 -1.75% | | 数据来源：文华财经 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the prices of base metals are showing mixed trends, influenced by a strengthening US dollar, which is exerting pressure on the entire base metal sector [1] - Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by 0.3% to $9,975 per ton, while aluminum futures decreased by 1.3% to $2,671.50 per ton [1] - Market observers suggest that the potential benefits of a US interest rate cut may only become apparent after actual economic activity shows signs of recovery [1] Group 2 - Thu Lan Nguyen from Deutsche Bank notes that the outlook for the aluminum market remains uncertain, despite a significant increase in LME aluminum "cancelled warrants" last week, which provided some support for aluminum prices [1] - Recent increases in aluminum inventory have weakened market expectations for supply tightening [1] - Regarding the copper market, Nguyen mentioned that if the International Copper Study Group reports a "significant oversupply" in the copper market for the first seven months before 2025, it may delay the short-term recovery of copper prices [1]

黄金冲高上演高台跳水后，一跌再跌，昨天再次延续回调破低，再次跳水大跌45美金，再次止跌调整， 持续看高位调整。 昨天我们3672附近，再次空收获。 今天的走势 昨天上演V型反弹，刚涨穿3670后。 再次上演跳水，一度跌至3627。 到今天再止跌调整，上方涨破3650。 再次延续，上看3662的位置。 再次突破了此位置，持续看到3700的阻力承压。 同时，面临3662的位置，再次遇阻。 下方调整，可再试探3631，看两个区域范围内调整。 下方若持续回调，跌破了3631的位置，继续看到3600的支撑。 黄金连涨4个月后，到8月持续了4个月的横盘，到本月突破了长久的震荡格局，而且连刷历史新高，迎 来再次单边涨势，年内涨幅达到了1000美金。进入高位洗盘阶段，再次上破新高不猜顶。同时，下方再 次调整，看到3600的关口。 另外一方面，美联储急于劳动力疲软的降息，恐又迎来逆转，昨天美失业金大降温，录得4年的最大降 幅。劳动力表现出现大反转，失业金出现乌龙，劳动力不堪的表现好转，美元继续走强，黄金再次跳 水。 今天消息面 重磅日央行决议，本周美联储降息25基点后，英央行按兵不动，接连考验，这次轮到了日央行。虽然 CPI降 ...

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices declined on August 27 due to a stronger dollar, increased inventories, and demand concerns, ending a four-day rising streak [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month copper fell by $81.5, or 0.83%, closing at $9,755.5 per ton, after reaching a peak of $9,862 per ton on August 26 [1][2]. - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down by $35.5 (-1.35%), zinc down by $52 (-1.85%), and lead down by $3.5 (-0.18%) [2][6]. - In contrast, three-month tin rose by $355, or 1.04%, reaching $34,553, marking its highest level in about a month [2][6]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand - LME copper inventories increased by 1,100 tons, a 72% rise since the end of June, totaling 156,100 tons [5]. - COMEX copper inventories have nearly doubled this year, contributing to negative market sentiment [5]. - Analysts noted signs of slowing demand due to economic challenges, including tariffs and a downturn in the real estate sector [4]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The strengthening dollar has made dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies [5]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve were reignited following the dismissal of a Fed governor, impacting investor sentiment [4].

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a positive trend on August 26, with SHFE gold quoted at 780.80 CNY per gram, up 0.24%, and SHFE silver at 9370.00 CNY per kilogram, up 0.28% [1] - International precious metals also experienced gains, with COMEX gold priced at 3422.50 CNY per ounce, up 0.34%, and COMEX silver at 38.78 USD per ounce, up 0.61% [1] - The opening prices for SHFE gold and silver were 778.44 CNY and 9344.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with their highest prices reaching 782.40 CNY and 9380.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data showed a decline in new home sales by 0.6% in July, which was below the expected increase of 0.5%, raising concerns about the health of the U.S. economy [3] - Following the weak economic data, there is an increased expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has supported gold prices [3] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened by over 0.7%, potentially creating upward pressure on gold prices, leading to a slight pullback in the gold market [3] Group 3 - COMEX gold closed at 3410.7 USD per ounce on August 25, with a gain of 0.23%, while SHFE gold night trading ended at 779.92 CNY per gram, up 0.13% [4] - Upcoming U.S. GDP and PCE data are critical, as disappointing results could further elevate expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially supporting gold prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are under pressure due to a strong dollar, but expectations for a rate cut in September may provide support for gold prices [1][8]. Technical Analysis - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating a generally optimistic outlook for gold, currently around 53.50 [3]. - A "golden cross" formation may occur if the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closes above the 50-day SMA, potentially increasing bullish sentiment among traders [3]. - Key resistance levels for gold include the previous high of $3,379 and the $3,400 mark, which may see significant trading activity [3][4]. - A critical support area is formed by the 21-day and 50-day SMAs around $3,346; failure to break this level may prevent further declines [5]. - Strong support is also noted at the 100-day SMA around $3,320, which has historically not been breached since December 31, 2024 [6][7]. Fundamental Overview - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments have reignited expectations for significant rate cuts this year, leading to a nearly $50 rebound in gold prices, reaching around $3,380 [8]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen to 88% from 75% following Powell's remarks, indicating a shift in sentiment [9]. - The recent sell-off in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by traders after a strong rally, but the decline is expected to be temporary due to a reassessment of the Fed's dovish policy stance [9].

Market Overview - The market is currently focused on two main aspects: the stability of geopolitical situations following US-Russia talks and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - The outcome of the US-Russia talks remains unclear, which may reduce market demand for gold as a safe haven [1] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has broken below the key support level of 3330, indicating a shift to a bearish trend [2][3] - The current support levels for gold are identified at 3300 and 3280, with 3300 being a trendline support and 3280 being the lower Bollinger Band support [2] - If gold maintains above these support levels, there may still be potential for a bullish reversal [2] Silver Market Analysis - Silver has also transitioned from a strong consolidation phase to a bearish trend, with a recent close below 37.5 [3][4] - The next support level for silver is at 36.5, and the overall long-term trend remains bullish despite the current adjustments [3] Domestic Market Insights - In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold contract closed around 773, indicating limited downside potential in the short term [3] - The domestic silver market has shown a significant decline, with the Shanghai silver contract reaching a low of 9050 [4] Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has seen a contract change to oilV25, with a current close around 62, and a critical support level at 61.2 [4] - If oil prices remain above 61.2, there is potential for a rebound, while a break below this level could lead to further bearish trends [4] Fuel Market Insights - The domestic fuel market has experienced a slow decline without significant momentum, closing around 2710 [4] - There is a need to observe if the market can establish a bottom and regain levels above 2800 for potential upward movement [4]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with investors remaining cautious due to mixed market signals affecting demand outlook [1] - The strong US dollar continues to weigh on base metals, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [1] - China's seasonal demand hopes support copper prices, with three-month copper rising by 0.36% to $9,769 per ton [1] Group 2 - Analysts from BMI indicated that weak PMI data from the EU and the US could reinforce current demand concerns, while unexpectedly strong data might provide temporary support [1] - Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer, saw a 7.1% year-on-year increase in copper production in June [1] - China's refined copper production in July 2025 reached 1.27 million tons, a 14% year-on-year increase, with cumulative production from January to July at 8.623 million tons, up 9.9% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Indonesia's July refined tin exports increased by 11.2% year-on-year to 3,792.22 tons, but were lower than June's 4,465 tons [2] - Other base metals saw varied price movements, with three-month aluminum down 0.79% to $2,568 per ton, nickel down 0.4% to $15,090 per ton, zinc down 0.34% to $2,767.5 per ton, lead up 0.1% to $1,973 per ton, and tin up 0.39% to $33,835 per ton [2]