1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unexpectedly high US inflation data released last night and the Fed officials' cautious stance on interest rate cuts have put short - term pressure on precious metal prices [2][3]. - The much - higher - than - expected PPI data in July shows that Trump's tariff policy has significantly affected US prices. Fed officials' statements around the data release were generally hawkish [3]. - Despite the current resilience of US inflation data, due to factors such as US debt interest payments and Trump administration intervention, the Fed will implement a further easing cycle. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider buying on dips after the price stabilizes. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 766 - 788 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver, it is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Changes - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.55% to 774.54 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) dropped 1.31% to 9197.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold fell 0.12% to 3379.00 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver fell 0.12% to 38.03 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.29%, and the US dollar index was 98.21 [2]. - In the comparison of recent trading days, various precious - metal - related products showed different price and volume changes, such as Au(T + D) rising 0.05% to 775.10 yuan/gram, and London Gold falling 0.61% to 3343.85 dollars/ounce [4]. US Economic Data - In July, the US PPI year - on - year value was 3.3%, much higher than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.4%. The month - on - month value was 0.9%, significantly higher than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0% [3]. Trading Suggestions - Given the current market situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now. After the precious metal prices stabilize after a correction, consider buying on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 766 - 788 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver, it is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. Data Tables and Graphs - Multiple data tables presented detailed information on precious - metal prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventories in different markets and time periods, such as the COMEX and SHFE gold and silver markets [6]. - There are also various graphs showing the relationships between precious - metal prices, US dollar index, real interest rates, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structure and price spreads of precious metals [8][11][21].

Market Overview - U.S. futures pointed to new highs before the market opened, driven by recent inflation data that bolstered hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.2%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures increased by 0.3%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs on Tuesday [3] Economic Factors - Market gains were partly attributed to relief over a potential trade truce between President Trump and China, alongside optimism regarding lower borrowing costs in the U.S. [4] - A rate cut would make borrowing cheaper, potentially boosting investment and reducing costs for households and businesses [4] - The Federal Reserve remains cautious, concerned that Trump's tariff policies could reignite high inflation [5] Corporate Developments - Gildan Activewear announced a $2.2 billion acquisition of HanesBrands, which will give HanesBrands shareholders nearly 20% of the new company [6] - Following acquisition rumors, HanesBrands' stock fell over 9% in pre-market trading after a 28% rise on Tuesday [7] Asian Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo rose by 1.3%, continuing its upward trend after reaching a new high [8] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong surged by 2.6%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.5% [8] - South Korea's KOSPI index rose by 1.1%, and Taiwan's index gained 0.9% [10][11] European Market Performance - In Europe, the DAX index in Germany rose by 0.9%, and the CAC 40 index in Paris increased by 0.6% [12] Energy Market - U.S. benchmark crude oil prices fell by $0.52 to $62.65 per barrel, while Brent crude prices dropped by $0.44 to $65.68 per barrel [13] Currency Exchange - The USD/JPY exchange rate decreased from 147.84 to 147.51, while the EUR/USD rate increased from 1.1677 to 1.1713 [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of the U.S. inflation rate in July, with a notable rebound in core inflation, indicating potential implications for monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments [1][6][22]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value and slightly below market expectations of 2.8%. The core CPI rose by 3.1%, surpassing the previous value of 2.9% and the expected 3.0% [1][6][9]. - The core goods prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of recovery. Various core goods categories, such as furniture (+0.7% month-on-month) and shoes (+1.4% month-on-month), showed price increases, reflecting the impact of tariffs [2][13][14]. - Core services saw a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, higher than the previous 0.3% [4][18]. Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The article highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have become more evident in July, although the overall inflation rebound has been moderate due to product differentiation. Future impacts remain uncertain, with varying estimates on how quickly tariffs affect consumer prices [3][14][15]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions on monetary policy direction are noted, with some members advocating for a cautious approach while others support a shift towards a neutral interest rate stance, indicating differing views on inflation risks and economic slowdown [5][20][21]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased, with the probability rising to 93.4% from 85.9%. This led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and a rise in major stock indices, reflecting a favorable environment for emerging market assets [5][22].

Group 1 - A weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report has increased traders' bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability of 89.4% according to the FedWatch tool [1] - The announcement by President Trump that there will be no tariffs on imported gold bars led to a significant drop in international gold prices, with a decline of over 2%, marking the largest drop in nearly three months [1] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. inflation reports and the uncertain global trade situation, which are critical for future gold price movements [1] Group 2 - Gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell nearly 2.5%, closing below $3,400 per ounce, the largest drop since May [2] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection clarified the correct customs code for gold bars, which could lead to tariffs being applied, causing a spike in gold prices to a record $3,534.10 per ounce before the White House intervened [2] - Several gold suppliers, including those from Switzerland, have reportedly stopped shipments to the U.S. due to tariff uncertainties [2] Group 3 - The market is awaiting the latest U.S. price data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August set to be released soon [4] - The potential appointment of Stephen Miran to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board may lead to a more dovish monetary policy stance [4] - Analysts suggest that if inflation data exceeds expectations, it could provide the Fed with a reason to pause the anticipated rate cut, negatively impacting gold prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in gold prices and the market's reaction to potential U.S. tariffs on gold bars, alongside the focus on upcoming U.S. inflation data that may influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - On August 11, gold prices fell sharply, with London gold down over 1.5% and COMEX gold down over 2.6% [1]. - The decline followed rumors of a new tariff on imported gold bars, which had previously driven COMEX gold to a new high on August 8 [2]. - Reports indicated that the U.S. government planned to classify gold bars for taxation, causing market turmoil, but subsequent clarifications from the White House aimed to stabilize the situation [2]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - Market attention is shifting towards U.S. inflation data, with the upcoming CPI and PPI reports expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy [3]. - As of August 11, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 9.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 90.7% [3]. - If inflation data exceeds expectations, it may hinder the recent upward trend in U.S. stock markets and reignite concerns about stagflation; conversely, lower-than-expected CPI could bolster expectations for rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices above the psychological level of $3,400 [3]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Performance - As of the latest update, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, the Nasdaq up 0.09%, and the S&P 500 down 0.06% [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have significantly declined, with both spot and futures prices dropping sharply, leading to increased attention on social media platforms [1][2]. Price Movements - As of the latest update, London gold has decreased by over 1.5%, while COMEX gold has fallen by more than 2.6% [2]. - Specific price changes include: - London gold: 3346.170, down 52.409, a decrease of 1.54% [3] - London silver: 37.743, down 0.574, a decrease of 1.50% [3] - COMEX gold: 3399.9, down 91.4, a decrease of 2.62% [3] - COMEX silver: 37.820, down 0.722, a decrease of 1.87% [3] Market Influences - The recent drop in gold prices was influenced by rumors regarding "gold bar tariffs," which initially caused COMEX gold to reach a new high on August 8. Reports indicated that the U.S. government planned to impose tariffs on imported gold bars [4]. - Following these rumors, the White House is expected to clarify the situation, which may help stabilize the market and reduce confusion regarding gold import tariffs [4]. Economic Indicators - Market focus has shifted to U.S. inflation data, which is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. As of August 11, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 9.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 90.7% [5]. - Upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data releases are anticipated to impact market sentiment. Higher-than-expected inflation could hinder the recent upward trend in U.S. equities, while lower-than-expected CPI could reinforce expectations for rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices above the psychological level of $3400 [5]. Stock Market Performance - As of the latest update, U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.09% [6]. - Specific index performances include: - Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44023.73, down 151.88, a decrease of 0.34% [7] - Nasdaq Composite: 21469.93, up 19.91, an increase of 0.09% [7] - S&P 500: 6385.81, down 3.64, a decrease of 0.06% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant drop in gold prices, influenced by rumors of new tariffs on gold bars imported into the U.S. and the upcoming U.S. inflation data that could impact Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [2][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - On August 11, both gold futures and spot prices fell sharply, with London gold down over 1.5% and COMEX gold down over 2.6% [3][4]. - The price of London gold was reported at 3346.170, down 52.409, or -1.54%, while COMEX gold was at 3399.9, down 91.4, or -2.62% [4]. Group 2: Tariff Rumors and Market Impact - The drop in gold prices followed reports of the U.S. government imposing tariffs on imported gold bars, which initially caused COMEX gold to reach a new high on August 8 [4]. - A subsequent report from Bloomberg indicated that the White House planned to clarify the tariff situation, which could help stabilize the market and reduce confusion regarding gold import tariffs [4]. Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - Market focus has shifted to upcoming U.S. inflation data, with expectations that higher-than-expected inflation could hinder the recent upward trend in U.S. stock markets [5]. - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicated a 90.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with various probabilities for future rate cuts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the next Federal Reserve Chair nominee on interest rate expectations and capital market trends, highlighting a strong likelihood of interest rate cuts in September 2023 [1][5][9]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, advocating for a cut to begin in September [1][5]. - Current market expectations indicate a 91.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, reflecting increased optimism among investors [1][9]. - The recent appointment of Stephen Milan, perceived as a dovish figure, is expected to further strengthen the dovish stance within the Federal Reserve [6]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the July CPI data is anticipated to show a rebound in inflation, with expectations of a year-on-year increase from 2.7% in June to 2.8% in July [3]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to rise to 3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics [3]. - Analysts from Wells Fargo suggest that the July CPI data will be crucial for assessing whether the Federal Reserve needs to adjust its monetary policy, especially in light of weak labor market data [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Earnings Reports - The article notes that U.S. stock indices, particularly the Nasdaq, have reached new historical highs, influenced by the dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1]. - This week, several major Chinese tech companies, including Tencent and JD.com, are set to announce their earnings, which may impact market sentiment [4].

Group 1 - The potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair are influencing interest rate cut expectations and capital market trends, with the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching a new closing high [1] - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and suggests starting the cuts in the September meeting, which has boosted market optimism [1][5] - Current market expectations indicate a 91.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, according to CME FedWatch [1][9] Group 2 - The upcoming release of the U.S. July CPI data is highly anticipated, with expectations of a year-over-year increase from June's 2.7% to 2.8% [3] - Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points, reaching 3% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, reflecting the impact of tariffs on prices [3] - Wells Fargo economists believe the July CPI data will be crucial for assessing whether the Federal Reserve needs to adjust its monetary policy, especially after a disappointing non-farm payroll report [3] Group 3 - This week, several major Chinese companies, including Tencent, JD.com, and NetEase, will report their earnings, alongside U.S. companies like Oklo Inc., Sea, and Circle [4]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, citing recent weak labor market data as a reinforcement of this stance [1][3] - Bowman emphasizes the need to avoid further unnecessary deterioration in the labor market and reduce the likelihood of larger policy corrections in the future [3] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicates that the timing for rate cuts is approaching due to evidence of a weakening job market and the absence of persistent tariff-induced inflation [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Federal Reserve will begin a series of three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts starting in September, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [3][4] - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with Bowman and another governor voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3][4] - Recent labor market data shows a significant underperformance, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000, and revisions to previous months indicating a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [4] Group 3 - Inflation data reveals that the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, indicating stable inflation [5] - The core PCE price index for June also increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [5] - Upcoming key economic data releases, including July CPI, PPI, and retail sales, are anticipated to provide important insights for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [5][6]