来源：华尔街情报圈 裁员确实不多，初请失业救济人数下降； 但失业后重新就业变难，持续申领上升。 这两组信号对美联储意味着什么，是今天市场最关注的点。 初请下降，说明经济不坏，美联储不会被吓到；持续申领上升，劳动力市场正在慢慢降温。 组合在一起，对美联储的含义是：经济没崩，但正在放缓（不崩，但不强；不冷，但明显在冷却）——降息合理，但不需要紧急（该降，但不急）。 数据公布后，黄金自日内高点下跌逾30美元，美元指数则创下日内新高。虽然美联储变"鸽"了，但市场如果想守住之前的涨幅，需要经济数据配合。 黄金过去几天的涨势，全靠"美联储转鸽"的预期。结果现在数据给出来的情景是： 变弱？变了一点，但不够弱 北京时间21:30，分析师们最关心的数据出炉： - 美国上周初请失业救济人数降至7个月低点（21.6 万人）——比前一周减少 6000 人，也比市场预期的 22.5 万人要低 - 但再看持续申领，升上来了。增加 7000 人，达到 196 万人，是 2021 年 11 月以来最高水平。 两个数据完全不同调，这是当前美国劳动力市场的典型特征： 转鸽？是鸽，但没有更鸽 降息？会降，但不紧急 这等于告诉市场："你买得太超前了 ...

【11月25日富达国际预计:美联储转鸽或致欧洲央 行降息】 11月25日,富达国际全球宏观及战略资产 配置主管Salman Ahmed称,若美联储在新主席领 导下更鸽派,欧洲央行难维持利率不变。他预计欧 洲央行会将存款利率下调两到三次,从当前2%到明 年下半年降至1.5%以下。美联储主席鲍威尔任期明 年5月结束,Ahmed预计其继任者会主导货币政策 转向宽松。目前,Ahmed仍坚持做多欧元,认为欧 元兑美元有望攀升至1.25,较当前1.1545美元左右 的水平高出不少。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 【11月25日富达国际预计：美联储转鸽或致欧洲央行降息】11月25日，富达国际全球宏观及战略资产配 置主管Salman Ahmed称，若美联储在新主席领导下更鸽派，欧洲央行难维持利率不变。他预计欧洲央 行会将存款利率下调两到三次，从当前2%到明年下半年降至1.5%以下。美联储主席鲍威尔任期明年5月 结束，Ahmed预计其继任者会主导货币政策转向宽松。 目前，Ahmed仍坚持做多欧元，认为欧元兑美 元有望攀升至1.25，较当前1.1545美元左右的水平高 ...

[Table_I 日期 ndustry] : shzqdatemark 2025年11月25日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 张河生 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686158 | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870523100004 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《美联储或再次转鸽》 ——2025 年 11月 18日 《A 股建议关注困境反转的周期行业》 ——2025 年 11月 11日 《A 股或维持高位震荡，债市与黄金短期波 动》 ——2025 年 11月 03日 延迟的数据，推迟的降息 ——固收&宏观周报（20251117-20251123） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 美股三大指数与恒生指数均下跌。 过去一周（20251117-20251123），纳斯达克、标普 500 指数与 道琼斯工业平均指数分别变化-2.74%、-1.95%与-1.91%，纳斯达克中 国科技股指数变化-6.06%；同时期恒生指数变化-5.09%。 A 股普跌。 过去一 ...

Report Information - Report Date: November 18, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng [1] - Tel: 021 - 53686158 [1] - E-mail: zhanghesheng@shzq.com [1] - SAC Number: S0870523100004 [1] Market Performance Summary Stock Market - **US Stocks**: In the past week (20251110 - 20251116), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.45%, 0.08%, and 0.34% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by -2.16% [2] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.26% during the same period [2] - **A-Shares**: The wind all A index changed by -0.47%. Among them, large-cap stocks declined while small-cap stocks rose. The CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro-cap stocks changed by -0.80%, -1.08%, -1.26%, -0.52%, 0.89%, and 3.10% respectively [3] - **Sector Performance**: In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the growth sectors declined significantly. The Shanghai Composite 50 and STAR Market 50 changed by 0.00% and -3.85% respectively. The Shenzhen Component 100 and ChiNext Index changed by -1.81% and -3.01% respectively. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index changed by -0.56% [4] - **Industry Performance**: Among the 30 CITIC industries, 20 industries rose and 10 industries fell. The leading industries were catering and tourism, textile and apparel, medicine, basic chemicals, comprehensive, commercial retail, and light industry manufacturing, with a weekly increase of more than 3.0%. From the perspective of ETF performance, Hong Kong innovative drug, tourism, chemical, and Hang Seng consumer ETFs led the way, with a weekly increase of more than 3.5% [5] Bond Market - **Domestic Bonds**: In the past week (20251110 - 20251116), the 10-year treasury bond futures main contract fell by 0.03% compared with November 7, 2025. The yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond fell by 0.02 BP to 1.8140%. The yields of various maturity varieties rose and fell [6] - **Funding**: As of November 14, 2025, R007 was 1.4945%, up 2.68 BP from November 7, 2025; DR007 was 1.4673%, up 5.43 BP, and the spread between the two narrowed. The central bank's net investment in the open market in the past week was 6262 billion yuan [7] - **Leverage Level**: The bond market leverage level declined, and the 5-day average of inter-bank pledged repurchase volume decreased from 7.97 trillion yuan on November 7, 2025, to 7.44 trillion yuan on November 14, 2025 [9] - **US Bonds**: In the past week (20251110 - 20251116), US bond yields increased. As of November 14, 2025, the 10-year US bond yield increased by 3 BP to 4.14%. The yields of various maturity varieties increased, and the curve shifted upward as a whole [10] Foreign Exchange and Commodity Markets - **Foreign Exchange**: In the past week (20251110 - 20251116), the US dollar index declined by 0.26%. The US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen changed by -0.48%, -0.04%, and 0.72% respectively. The US dollar against the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates declined slightly [11] - **Gold**: In the past week (20251110 - 20251116), gold prices rose. The London gold spot price rose by 1.93% to $4071.10 per ounce; the COMEX gold futures price rose by 2.29% to $4086.50 per ounce. The domestic gold price also rose, with the Shanghai gold spot rising by 3.27% to 948.03 yuan per gram and the futures rising by 3.43% to 950.50 yuan per gram [12] Outlook and Investment Suggestions - **Fed Policy**: The Fed may turn dovish again. Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is less than 50%, the Fed may turn dovish again after seeing weak economic data [13] - **Domestic Equity Market**: A-shares are likely to maintain a high-level volatile trend. It is recommended to pay attention to investment opportunities in new energy, photovoltaic, coal, steel, chemical, chip, computing power, and artificial intelligence [13] - **Bond Market**: The logic of the bond bull market remains unchanged, but high risk appetite is not conducive to the decline of bond yields. Bond yields are likely to move sideways and fluctuate within a narrow range [13] - **Gold Market**: The gold price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [13]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Underperform" [1][6] Core Viewpoints - Inflation cooling and trade easing open up downward space for US Treasury yields. The September CPI data in the US was lower than expected, with core inflation slowing down, which boosted expectations of interest rate cuts. The market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in October reached 98.9%, and the probability of another cut in December was 95.3% [1] - The October PMI data in the US exceeded expectations, indicating economic resilience. The Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs all improved compared to September and were better than expected, showing strong economic growth in the early fourth quarter [2] - China and the US reached a framework agreement on issues such as tariffs. The high - level economic and trade consultations effectively eased recent trade tensions and set a constructive tone for the upcoming APEC meeting between the two leaders [3] - Under the positive factors of "inflation cooling + dovish Fed + easing trade tensions", the downward space for US Treasury yields is further opened. It is recommended to maintain medium - to - short - term (2 - 5 years) US Treasuries as the core allocation, and investors with higher risk tolerance can moderately extend the duration to 5 years [4] Summary by Directory US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The September CPI data showed that overall CPI rose 3% year - on - year, slightly lower than the expected 3.1%, and core CPI also increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts in October and December increased significantly [1] - The October PMI data showed that the manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs all improved compared to September and were above the 50 boom - bust line, indicating strong economic growth at the beginning of the fourth quarter [2] Exchange Rate - Not covered in the provided summary content Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The report shows the trends of returns, yields, and spreads of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023, classified by level and industry [75] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies carried out 10 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 5 rating revocations, 1 initial rating, 3 rating downgrades, and 1 rating upgrade [76]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the macroeconomic environment, focusing on monetary policy adjustments and their implications for the financial markets and the real economy [4][5][18]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The macroeconomic research highlights a gradual economic slowdown in China, with an opening of policy space to stimulate growth [5]. - The commentary on the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent meetings indicates a shift towards a more dovish stance, suggesting potential interest rate cuts in response to economic conditions [18][20]. Monetary Policy Insights - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy is emphasized in the context of the 2025 Q2 monetary policy execution report, aiming to alleviate financial pressures and promote sustainable growth [4]. - The analysis of the monetary policy execution report indicates a focus on maintaining liquidity while managing inflation expectations [4]. Capital Market Research - The capital market reports suggest that the bond market is facing headwinds, with recommendations to maintain a short to medium-term bond allocation strategy [9][10]. - The commentary on the bond market indicates that volatility is expected to increase, presenting potential opportunities for investors to capitalize on market corrections [11]. Economic Data Commentary - Recent economic data from China shows signs of resilience despite external pressures, with a focus on recovery and growth in key sectors [5]. - The analysis of U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates mixed signals, with employment growth slowing down, which may influence the Fed's future policy decisions [18].

Core Viewpoint - The probability of further interest rate cuts in China within the year remains low, primarily due to three key reasons [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve's Actions - The logic behind the Federal Reserve's rate cuts opening up space for domestic rate cuts hinges on the pressure for RMB depreciation. Since mid-April, the RMB has strengthened, indicating that external factors like US Treasury yields and the dollar index are not trending downwards. The recent dovish stance from Powell is more about favorable external interest differentials rather than alleviating depreciation pressure [1]. - The relationship between external exchange rates and internal interest rates is viewed as a one-way logic, where significant depreciation pressure may allow for rate cuts, but a strong RMB does not necessarily lead to domestic rate cuts [1]. Group 2: Focus on Economic Stability and Financial Risk - Currently, the focus on exchange rates in rate cut decisions is relatively limited, with more emphasis on stabilizing growth and preventing financial risks. The monetary policy report from Q2 maintains a consistent stance on keeping the exchange rate stable [2]. - Historical context shows that the only time the exchange rate significantly constrained domestic rate cuts was from late 2024 to early 2025, where expectations for cuts were high but ultimately unmet due to market dynamics [2]. Group 3: Structural and Targeted Monetary Policy - The central bank's approach to "cost reduction" is becoming more structural and targeted, reducing the necessity for broad rate cuts. The current strategy emphasizes the use of structural tools and prioritizes quality over quantity in credit allocation [3]. - Even if external or internal factors trigger a rate cut, liquidity may not significantly loosen. For short-term funds, a 10 basis point cut may be the lower limit, while for long-term funds, rate cuts aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate or supporting the stock market may not lead to significant declines in long-term interest rates [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The Fed has shifted to a dovish stance. In the short term, it has signaled a clear intention to cut interest rates in September. Powell believes that under restrictive policies, the balance of risks has been broken, and the risk of a downward trend in the labor market has increased. The inflation increase caused by tariffs is one - time, greatly increasing the possibility of a September interest rate cut. In the long term, the Fed's monetary policy emphasizes employment more, and the framework has returned to before 2020 [1]. - The macro - strategy is to increase risk appetite in the short term. Attention should be paid to the risks before the Fed's balance - sheet policy changes. Different asset strategies are proposed for dollars, US Treasuries, Chinese bonds, and commodities [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed's Dovish Shift - The Fed's short - term signal for a September rate cut is due to the labor market's downward risk and the one - time nature of tariff - induced inflation. In the long term, the new monetary policy framework has removed descriptions of the zero - lower bound and average inflation target, and changed the description of employment from "shortfall" to "deviation", emphasizing the importance of the labor market [1]. Macro - strategy - **Dollars**: Short - term risk appetite in the market has increased. Short - term volatility long positions (+VIX) should be stopped and observed. Attention should be paid to the pressure on non - US assets from the increased risk appetite for US dollar assets, and continue to short the euro against the US dollar on rallies (-EUR) [2]. - **US Treasuries**: Maintain the flexibility of US dollar assets. It is expected that the yield curve will steepen as risk appetite increases (-2s10s). In terms of trends, pay attention to the impact of August non - farm payrolls on the Fed's September rate - cut pricing (+2s) [2]. - **Chinese Bonds**: Hold strategic steepening positions (+2s10s). Temporarily pay attention to the short - term pressure on non - US curve structures after the implementation of the Fed's new monetary policy framework. Keep the judgment of being bearish on T and TL (due to fiscal expansion) but not short - selling (due to short - term risk uncertainty), and pay attention to the opportunities provided by the August US non - farm payroll report [2]. - **Commodities**: Against the backdrop of the Fed's improved liquidity expectations, the expected weakening of total demand due to employment risks and the expected weakening of total supply due to anti - involution policies. Pay attention to the strengthening of the differentiation between domestic and foreign commodities in the short term under the improved risk - appetite state. Increase domestic - demand industrial products such as black and chemical products, and reduce external - demand industrial products such as energy and copper. In the long run, pay attention to the allocation opportunities of external - demand industrial commodities after adjustments [2]. Market Data and Trends - As of August 23, the market's pricing of the probability of a Fed rate cut within the year remained at 83.9%, and there was no significant increase in August. The market may be waiting for further signals from the early - September non - farm payroll report. The probability of the Fed continuing to cut rates during Powell's tenure in the first half of 2026 was 58.3%, slightly higher than 50% [6][8]. - The global major central banks have been in a rate - cut state in the past three months. The relatively loose financial conditions have led to the expectation of the Fed's continued loose monetary policy, driving the improvement of market risk appetite, and the pressure on the relatively high - level US stocks may be postponed in the short term [14][18][19]. Strategy Tracking - The table shows the tracking of the Fed's trading macro - strategies from July 25 to August 25, including strategies for dollars, US Treasuries, and Chinese bonds, such as holding, short - selling, and stop - loss operations [22]. Labor Market - The growth rate of the US labor market stock is continuing to slow down, and the incremental data from the private - sector survey of the labor market is also facing downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the September non - farm payroll report [23][24][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares are expected to maintain a high-risk preference, and investment opportunities in innovative drugs, artificial intelligence, and rare earths are favored [12]. - Bond market yields may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level [12]. - In the context of the Fed's dovish stance, gold has the possibility to break through its previous high [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Market Performance - U.S. stocks rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by 3.87%, 2.43%, and 1.35% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 4.25%, and the Hang Seng Index changed by 1.43% [2]. - A-shares generally rose, with the Wind All A Index rising 1.94%. Most major indices showed positive changes, and most sectors and industries also rose, with non-ferrous metals, machinery, and national defense and military industry leading the gains [3][4]. Bond Market Performance - Interest rate bond prices rose, and the yield curve steepened. The 10-year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.19%, and the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 1.68 BP [5]. - Bond market leverage increased, and the central bank's open market operations had a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [6][8]. - U.S. Treasury yields increased, and the curve shifted upward as a whole [9]. Foreign Exchange and Commodity Markets - The U.S. dollar depreciated, and the U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.43%. Gold prices rose, with London gold spot prices rising 1.49% and COMEX gold futures prices rising 1.29% [10]. Fed's Stance - The Fed's regulatory vice-chairman's remarks were more dovish than the market's mainstream expectations, and the market's mainstream expectation for the number of Fed rate cuts in 2025 remains 2 times [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the recent strengthening of the US dollar, it may face challenges due to potential dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a faster-than-expected rate cut [1][2] - Standard Chartered Bank indicates that the recent weakness of the dollar may reflect market relief that the worst outcomes from trade negotiations are unlikely to occur, but attention is now shifting to the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Market expectations for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are low, with no rate cuts priced in for July and only a 16 basis point cut anticipated for September [1][2] Group 2 - The divergence among FOMC members has narrowed, focusing primarily on the impact of tariffs, with some members advocating for ignoring temporary price increases while others, including Chairman Powell, suggest that the Fed could have been more accommodative without tariffs [2] - Economic data, particularly the upcoming employment report, is expected to become a focal point, with Standard Chartered warning that downside risks may outweigh consensus expectations [3] - The dollar is expected to weaken moderately over the next few months, but significant declines will depend more on actual shifts in Federal Reserve policy rather than further trade negotiation news [3]