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20251125申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃(LL&PP)-20251125
申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 (从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919) 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 (核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号) 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性,对未来预测存在不及预期,以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格,保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道,分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解,本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点,力求独立、客观和公正,结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响,作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息,本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证,也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险,投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正,但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价,投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨,投资者应合 ...
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251107
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:12
Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for LLDPE and PP is bearish, with expectations of weak and volatile trends today. The main factors include an oversupply situation, a decline in manufacturing PMI, limited support from the cost side of crude oil, and relatively high industrial inventories. However, the recent rebound in oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the phased easing of Sino-US relations may provide some support [4][6]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but inventory replenishment for other films is ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6750 (-80), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -55, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.8%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be weak and volatile. With an oversupply in the fundamentals, recent Sino - US talks, and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, and relatively high industrial inventories, PE is expected to trend weakly and volatile today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and phased easing of Sino - US relations [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The long - term pattern of crude oil remains unchanged in terms of cost support. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6500 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 29, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be weak and volatile. Considering the oversupply in the fundamentals, Sino - US talks, the rebound in crude oil prices, and relatively high industrial inventories, PP is expected to trend weakly and volatile today [6]. - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and phased easing of Sino - US relations [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].
聚烯烃日报:PE下游开工下滑,需求偏弱持续拖累-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - PE continues its weak pattern due to high supply, limited demand support from downstream sectors like agricultural film, and a lack of significant macro - level boosts. The cost support from oil - based production is weakening, and inventory clearance under high supply remains challenging [2]. - PP remains in a weak pattern in the short term, with its upward movement suppressed by supply - demand factors and weak cost support. However, as PDH profits are currently low, attention should be paid to upstream device production cut dynamics and macro trends [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to the plastic main contract, LL East China basis, polypropylene main contract, and PP East China basis [8][9] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE production profit from crude oil and PE capacity utilization are presented. The PE operating rate is 82.6% (+1.7%), and the PE oil - based production profit is 288.7 yuan/ton (+41.3) [17][1][20] - PP production profit from crude oil, PDH - based PP production profit, polypropylene capacity utilization, and PP weekly output are shown. The PP operating rate is 77.8% (+0.7%), the PP oil - based production profit is - 351.3 yuan/ton (+41.3), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 121.6 yuan/ton (-46.7) [20][1][21] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Figures related to HD injection - LL East China, HD hollow - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, and LD East China - LL are provided [30][33] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit, LL export profit, and various price differences related to LL import and export are presented. The LL import profit is - 12.7 yuan/ton (+57.1) [45][1][53] - PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and various price differences related to PP import and export are shown. The PP import profit is - 284.1 yuan/ton (+34.1), and the PP export profit is - 7.0 dollars/ton (+1.1) [60][1][52] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, packaging film operating rate, and PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate, BOPP film operating rate, and injection molding operating rate are presented. The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.8% (-0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.5% (+0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.5% (+0.9%) [66][1][65] - PP downstream plastic weaving production profit and BOPP production profit are also shown [72] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures related to PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, and PE port inventory are provided [77][80] - PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory are presented [86][83] Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short LLDPE and PP at high prices [4] - Inter - period: Conduct reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices [4] - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4]
聚烯烃日报:需求回升缓慢,聚烯烃走势仍承压-20251104
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 05:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE: Neutral; PP: Cautiously short on rallies [3] - L01 - 05: Reverse calendar spread on rallies; PP01 - 05: Reverse calendar spread on rallies [3] - Cross -品种: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: The pattern of weak supply and demand continues. The short - term polyethylene futures is dominated by the cost side and continues the volatile pattern. High supply, limited demand support, and weak cost - side support lead to weak and volatile PE [2]. - PP: The supply - demand contradiction still exists. The previous weak propane on the cost side and the lack of macro - level boost lead to a weak pattern. Supply - side pressure persists, demand support is limited, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6888元/吨(-11), PP主力合约收盘价为6576元/吨(-14), LL华北现货为6890元/吨(-10), LL华东现货为7000元/吨(-20), PP华东现货为6580元/吨(+0), LL华北基差为2元/吨(+1), LL华东基差为112元/吨(-9), PP华东基差为4元/吨(+14) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%(-0.6%), PP开工率为77.1%(+1.1%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为283.4元/吨(-54.1), PP油制生产利润为 - 396.6元/吨(-54.1), PDH制PP生产利润为 - 152.1元/吨(-55.6) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为18.8元/吨(-51.6), PP进口利润为 - 292.8元/吨(-11.4), PP出口利润为 - 16.5美元/吨(+1.4) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%(+2.4%), PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%(-1.3%), PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%(-0.2%), PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%(+0.2%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is expected to increase, the demand follow - up is limited, the cost - side support is expected to weaken, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand contradiction exists. The supply - side pressure persists, the demand support is limited, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: LLDPE neutral; PP cautiously short on rallies [3]. - **Calendar Spread**: L01 - 05 reverse calendar spread on rallies; PP01 - 05 reverse calendar spread on rallies [3]. - **Cross -品种**: None [3]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251031
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:04
Group 1: General Information - Report title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - L2601 opened higher, oscillated downward during the session, and closed down at 6,968 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.29%), with a trading volume of 215,000 lots and an open interest decrease of 3,569 lots to 508,700 lots [5] - PP2601 closed at 6,651 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (-0.21%), with an open interest increase of 677 lots to 613,335 lots [5] - On October 30, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 695,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (-2.11%) from the previous working day; the inventory in the same period last year was 720,000 tons [7] - PE market prices were weakly sorted. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,910 - 7,150 yuan/ton, 7,030 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and 7,250 - 7,500 yuan/ton respectively [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 5,930 - 5,950 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day [7] - The PP market was mainly sorted, with individual prices slightly loosening. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were 6,450 - 6,540 yuan/ton, 6,530 - 6,620 yuan/ton, and 6,470 - 6,630 yuan/ton respectively [7] Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The futures opened higher and oscillated, but the market atmosphere was limitedly boosted. Traders quoted prices according to the market, and some quoted prices weakened. Downstream buyers mainly replenished stocks at low prices [5] - The expected output of the new Guangxi Petrochemical plant in November is expected to increase, and the impact of maintenance from November to December will decrease. Although the downstream operating rate remains high, the concentrated demand will decrease later, and the demand support will weaken [5] - Affected by the new round of US sanctions, the market sentiment is cautious, the oil price is under pressure, and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefin itself will cause the price to oscillate at a low level [5]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20251028
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core View - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefins have gradually stopped falling. With the easing of the external environment, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, and polyolefins have followed the crude oil trend. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited, and the market may maintain a short - term oscillating rebound trend [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7024, 7090, and 7119 respectively, up 55, 69, and 69 from the day before, with increases of 0.79%, 0.98%, and 0.98%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6699, 6768, and 6770 respectively, up 37, 49, and 42, with increases of 0.56%, 0.73%, and 0.62% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 241446, 30216, and 144 respectively. For PP, they were 262100, 37290, and 1332 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 523862, 66492, and 1155 respectively, with changes of - 5325, 3904, and 19. For PP, they were 608347, 130837, and 6741, with changes of 247, 3976, and 600 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 66, - 29, and 95 respectively, compared to previous values of - 52, - 29, and 81. For PP, the current spreads were - 69, - 2, and 71, compared to previous values of - 57, - 9, and 66 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2274 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 537 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2271 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 542 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6500 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, they were 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton [2] Market News - On Monday (October 27), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.31 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.31% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.67 - $62.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.62 per barrel, down $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.06 - $66.64 [2]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251024
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:51
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [2] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [2] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Contract | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 6946 | 6999 | 7013 | 6934 | 85 | 1.23 | 531489 | -18375 | | Plastic 2605 | 6965 | 7044 | 7060 | 6965 | 91 | 1.31 | 62406 | 487 | | Plastic 2609 | 7019 | 7058 | 7072 | 7015 | 65 | 0.93 | 1129 | 194 | | PP2601 | 6633 | 6691 | 6710 | 6616 | 84 | 1.27 | 618484 | -14771 | | PP2605 | 6656 | 6740 | 6755 | 6656 | 88 | 1.32 | 126580 | 1854 | | PP2609 | 6684 | 6734 | 6754 | 6678 | 61 | 0.91 | 6035 | 1037 | [3] Spot Market Quotes - On October 23, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 760,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.56%) from the previous working day; the inventory in the same period last year was 770,000 tons [5] - PE market prices showed mixed trends. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, in East China 6950 - 7500 yuan/ton, and in South China 7150 - 7500 yuan/ton [5] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily in the range of 6000 - 6020 yuan/ton. The propylene price remained stable at a low level, downstream factories made purchases as needed, production enterprises aimed for stable sales, and a small number of offers were slightly adjusted. The overall market was in a wait - and - see mood [5] - The PP market showed a warm adjustment, with some market prices rising by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North China drawstrings were in the range of 6460 - 6570 yuan/ton, in East China 6500 - 6630 yuan/ton, and in South China 6500 - 6630 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - L2601 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed higher at 6999 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (1.23%), with a trading volume of 250,000 lots and an open interest decrease of 18,375 lots to 531,489 lots. PP2601 closed at 6691 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan (1.27%), with an open interest decrease of 14,771 lots to 618,500 lots [4] - The slight increase in futures prices boosted the market atmosphere, and end - users made appropriate replenishments for production. There is an expected launch of a 400,000 - ton PP plant in Guangxi Petrochemical in the second half of the month. In the short term, maintenance of plants is still concentrated, the support from the "Silver October" demand is weakening, and high downstream costs, inventory, and limited profitability are suppressing the purchasing enthusiasm [4] - The operating rate of PE agricultural film is still at a high level, but the concentrated demand will decrease later, and the support from the demand side will weaken. The cost side rebounded strongly during the day, and the geopolitical situation and the results of China - US trade talks are uncertain, leading to wider oil price fluctuations [4] - The absolute prices of polyolefins are in a low - level range, and they rebounded slightly due to cost support. However, weak supply - demand and signals of open interest reduction are restricting the upward space [4] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][10][12]
聚烯烃日报:需求提升有限,聚烯烃继续承压-20251022
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 02:24
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The polyolefin market continues to face pressure due to limited demand growth. Both PE and PP are in a situation of loose supply - demand and weak cost support. The market is expected to remain weak in the short - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6883 yuan/ton (+4), PP main contract at 6583 yuan/ton (+18). LL North China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot 6950 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6560 yuan/ton (-20). LL North China basis was -3 yuan/ton (-4), LL East China basis 67 yuan/ton (-4), PP East China basis -23 yuan/ton (-38) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 515.6 yuan/ton (+23.5), PP oil - based production profit was -94.4 yuan/ton (+23.5), PDH - based PP production profit was 122.3 yuan/ton (+12.1) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was -147.2 yuan/ton (+3.0), PP import profit was -560.1 yuan/ton (+13.0), PP export profit was 29.7 dollars/ton (-1.6) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream woven开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Recent continuous decline in PE is due to loose supply - demand, high inventory, and weakening cost support from falling oil prices. Supply is expected to increase with new production and restart of some devices. Demand growth is limited, mainly for rigid needs. Cost support is weakening. Future focus is on cost - side and macro - policy impacts [2]. - **PP**: The weakening of PP is dragged by falling oil and propane prices, and loose supply - demand. Supply is increasing with new production expected. Demand growth is insufficient, inventory is high, and cost support is weak. Attention should be paid to propane supply and PDH marginal device operations [3]. Strategy - **Single - Side**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach; expect short - term weak and volatile market [4]. - **Inter - Period**: Conduct L01 - L05 reverse arbitrage; PP01 - PP05 reverse arbitrage [4]. - **Inter - Variety**: Short PP01 - 3MA01 when the spread is high [4].
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251021
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 02:13
Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: October 21, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the expected trend for both being weakly volatile today. The decline in crude oil prices and increased Sino-US macro risks contribute to this outlook, while the operating conditions of agricultural film are stable, and industrial inventories are moderately high [4][6] LLDPE Analysis Fundamentals - In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, and oil prices have continued to decline. On the supply - demand side, the operation of agricultural film is stable with a slight increase in the operating rate, and the demand for other films is good as Double 11 approaches. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6920 (+10) [4] Key Factors - The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 46, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish. The PE comprehensive inventory is 58.0 million tons (+3.7), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] Pros and Cons - Bullish factor: Seasonal demand has increased month - on - month. Bearish factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [5] PP Analysis Fundamentals - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term "increasing supply and decreasing demand" pattern in crude oil persists, and Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain. On the supply - demand side, plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has increased but is still weak year - on - year. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (-0) [6] Key Factors - The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 1, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.0%, which is neutral. The PP comprehensive inventory is 67.9 million tons (-0.3), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] Pros and Cons - Bullish factor: Seasonal demand has increased month - on - month. Bearish factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [7] Market Data LLDPE - Spot delivery product price: 6920, 0 change. 01 contract price: 6874, 0 change. Warehouse receipts: 12685, 0 change. PE comprehensive factory inventory: 58.0, 0 change. PE social inventory: 546, 0 change [8] PP - Spot delivery product price: 6550, 0 change. 01 contract price: 6551, 0 change. Warehouse receipts: 14313, 0 change. PP comprehensive factory inventory: 67.9, 0 change. PP social inventory: 349, 0 change [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with a significant increase in 2020 and 2025E. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with a decline in 2021 [13] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been steadily increasing, with relatively large growth rates in 2020, 2023, and 2024. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has generally been positive [15]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20251020
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - Polyolefin futures are trading in a narrow range at low levels. The fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, with prices being dragged down by crude oil and the need to digest spot goods after the long holiday. Looking ahead to next week, the Sino-US game continues, crude oil is under pressure, and cost support is weakening. In the short term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuate passively following the cost side, and market sentiment is cautious. However, after continuous declines in chemicals, the decline rate may slow down [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6,874, 6,907, and 6,931 respectively, down -55, -61, and -73 from the day before, with declines of -0.79%, -0.88%, and -1.04%. The trading volumes were 210,425, 21,803, and 728, and the open interests were 565,412, 62,245, and 863, with changes of -1,233, +1,314, and +201. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -33, -24, and 57 respectively, compared to -39, -36, and 75 previously [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6,551, 6,603, and 6,633 respectively, down -67, -67, and -58 from the day before, with declines of -1.01%, -1.00%, and -0.87%. The trading volumes were 219,232, 22,551, and 616, and the open interests were 661,751, 118,326, and 4,188, with changes of -233, +2,465, and +252. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -52, -30, and 82 respectively, compared to -52, -21, and 73 previously [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2,274 yuan/ton, 6,160 yuan/ton, 533 US dollars/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, 6,500 yuan/ton, and 8,800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2,321 yuan/ton, 6,215 yuan/ton, 533 US dollars/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, 6,500 yuan/ton, and 8,800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6,900 - 7,500 yuan/ton, 6,900 - 7,150 yuan/ton, and 7,100 - 7,550 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 6,950 - 7,500 yuan/ton, 6,900 - 7,150 (8,100 - 8,250) yuan/ton, and 7,150 - 7,600 yuan/ton previously. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6,450 - 6,650 yuan/ton, 6,450 - 6,550 yuan/ton, and 6,500 - 6,650 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 6,450 - 6,650 yuan/ton, 6,500 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and 6,500 - 6,650 yuan/ton previously [2] News - On Friday (October 17), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.54 per barrel, up $0.08 from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.14%, with a trading range of $56.6 - $57.72. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.29 per barrel, up $0.23 from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.38%, with a trading range of $60.14 - $61.47 [2]