Core Insights - The livestock ETF (159865) has seen significant inflows, with 21 million shares flowing in and a net inflow of 19 million shares, indicating strong capital interest in livestock assets [1] - Dongfang Securities highlights that the pig farming industry is likely to undergo a capacity reduction, driven by weak current and expected pig prices, alongside policy support, which may initiate market-driven capacity reduction [1] - The livestock ETF tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which includes listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and related sectors, reflecting the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] Industry Summary - The pig prices have reached a low point for the year, and there is a possibility of further decline, suggesting that the industry is likely to start market-driven capacity reduction [1] - Policy measures are increasingly restricting the production capacity of leading firms, which, combined with market conditions, is expected to restart overall capacity reduction in the industry, potentially supporting long-term price increases for pigs [1] - The CSI Livestock Index covers various sub-sectors, including livestock farming, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and building materials industry [6]. Core Views - The funding environment is gradually improving, with expectations for increased fiscal support in the fourth quarter, particularly benefiting the real estate sector [1]. - The report highlights a potential turning point for consumer building materials revenue due to improving demand and a decrease in price pressures in 2025 [2]. - The cement industry is experiencing a push for price increases, but demand support remains weak, leading to price fluctuations [3]. - The flat glass market shows signs of price stabilization, but supply-side improvements are still needed [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Environment - Infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investments in China showed mixed results, with infrastructure investment up by 1.1% year-on-year, real estate down by 13.9%, and manufacturing up by 4.0% [1]. - The central government has allocated an additional 500 billion yuan to local governments, indicating a proactive fiscal approach [1]. Real Estate Market - From January to September 2025, real estate sales, new starts, and completion areas decreased by 5.5%, 18.9%, and 15.3% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - September saw a positive turn in monthly housing completion area, suggesting a potential recovery in the sector [2]. Cement Industry - Cement production from January to September 2025 was 1.259 billion tons, down 5.2% year-on-year, with a notable price increase in September [3]. - The average cement price in September was 351 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.4% month-on-month increase [3]. Glass Industry - The flat glass production for the first nine months of 2025 was 729 million weight cases, down 5.2% year-on-year, with prices stabilizing in September [4]. - The photovoltaic glass market showed better performance with a price increase of 19% month-on-month [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks with a "Buy" rating, including China Liansu (2128 HK), Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039 CH), Yaxiang Integration (603929 CH), Sankeshu (603737 CH), Tubaobao (002043 CH), and Dongfang Yuhong (002271 CH) [7][29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant inflow of funds into the breeding ETF (159865), with a net inflow of 151 million shares, indicating strong market interest in breeding assets [1] - In the third quarter, pig prices experienced weak fluctuations primarily due to the release of production capacity from the first half of the year, leading to an increase in supply [1] - Forward indicators such as the number of breeding sows and piglets suggest that supply will continue to grow year-on-year by approximately 10% to 16% in the third and fourth quarters [1] Group 2 - The overall profitability of the industry has narrowed in the third quarter due to high prices of piglets and delayed feed costs from the first half of the year, resulting in a decline in self-breeding and continuous losses in external purchases [1] - Some regions have reported a decrease in the slaughter weight of commercial pigs, reflecting the initial effects of policy adjustments [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has proposed controlling the number of breeding sows to 39.5 million and the slaughter weight to around 120 kg, indicating the potential onset of a capacity reduction cycle in the industry [1] Group 3 - It is anticipated that pig prices will stabilize at the bottom in the fourth quarter, with worsening industry losses, although the supply-demand structure is expected to improve [1] - The breeding ETF (159865) tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock breeding and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - The CSI Livestock Index covers various sub-sectors, including livestock breeding, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans (Domestic): ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★, implying a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆, showing a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Corn: ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★, implying a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, showing a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides insights into supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies for each product [2][3][4] - The report suggests that while some products face supply and demand challenges, others show potential for price increases or are in a state of weak oscillation. Investors are advised to pay attention to policy changes, international trade relations, and seasonal factors [6][7][8] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are in a consolidation state after a rebound. The recent auction had a 66.3%成交 rate with an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. Domestic soybeans are stronger than imported ones, and the price difference is widening. Concerns about US soybean export demand may pressure US soybean prices [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of domestic soybean meal futures decreased by 1.16% today. As of October 10, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 812 million tons, showing an increase. Domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be a shortage in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade relations worsen. US soybean sales are slow, and relevant policies are delayed. It is advisable to wait and observe [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil followed the general decline of most commodities today. However, from the perspective of the oil - meal ratio, oils are still stronger than meals. The US soybean price is expected to be pressured by weak demand. The Malaysian palm oil market has weak demand and inventory pressure, while the Indonesian market is more resilient. It is recommended to buy oils at low prices after the price bottoms out [4][5] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures declined today and were among the top decliners in the oil - seed sector. The macro - economic sentiment has a greater impact than the fundamentals. Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply is abundant, and rapeseed is not cost - effective in the demand side. It is recommended to use rapeseed as a short - position in cross - competitor strategies. Canadian rapeseed prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the domestic rapeseed market will likely oscillate weakly [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures are oscillating widely at the bottom. The new corn harvest in the northeast may lead to a price decline, but the winter wheat price increase may have an impact. The corn price is currently weak at the bottom, and a policy - based bottom is approaching [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures market rebounded with increased positions. The decline of the spot price has slowed down, and some areas have seen a price rebound. Although the current price is at the bottom historically, there are no obvious bullish factors in the fundamentals. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, which will support the futures contracts of the second half of next year [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs has mixed trends, with some areas rising and others falling. The futures market shows a rebound in the near - term contracts and a decline in the far - term contracts. The mid - term egg price bottom has not been determined, and the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old hens. It is recommended to hold a short position in the near - term contracts and a long position in the far - term contracts [9]

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry continues to adjust, with ongoing attention to the progress of eliminating outdated facilities and upgrading [1] - The oil and petrochemical index fell by 1.99% this week, while the best-performing segment was oil product sales and storage, which only declined by 0.46% [1] - Crude oil prices decreased, with an increase in US crude oil inventories and a reduction in gasoline inventories [1] Group 2 - Polyester filament prices and price spreads have decreased, with an increase in inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and a decline in weaving machine operating rates [1] - The sample prices of polyolefins remained stable, with inventory depletion observed [1] - If demand improves and there is progress in eliminating backward production capacity, it would be beneficial for the midstream refining sector [2]

Group 1 - Cement stocks have rebounded after a continuous decline, with Dongwu Cement rising over 8%, Western Cement up over 5%, China National Building Material increasing over 3%, and Asia Cement up over 2% [1] - According to a report from China Galaxy Securities, cement demand remains weak in August due to seasonal factors, high temperatures, and rainy weather affecting downstream construction, leading to a decrease in operating load of cement mills [1] - The average price of cement in August was 271.67 yuan per ton, showing a month-on-month decline [1] Group 2 - The clinker inventory has shifted from an increase to a decrease, but the issue of oversupply in the industry still exists [1] - Looking ahead, demand is expected to seasonally improve from September to November, combined with accelerated capacity reduction in the industry, which may help ease supply and demand pressures and support cement prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The cement industry in China is currently experiencing a seasonal downturn in demand due to high temperatures and rainy weather, leading to decreased operational load of cement mills and a high clinker kiln shutdown rate [1] Industry Summary - In August, the average price of cement was 271.67 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline [1] - The demand for cement remains weak, and the industry is facing an oversupply issue despite a decrease in clinker inventory [1] - A seasonal recovery in demand is expected from September to November, which, combined with accelerated capacity reduction efforts, may help balance supply and demand, potentially driving up cement prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has faced a continuous decline in stock price over the past few years, missing out on the recent bull market, prompting suggestions for stock buybacks to boost share price [1] Group 1 - The company is suggested to allocate 10 to 20 billion annually for stock repurchases to support share price recovery [1] - As a leading enterprise in the liquor industry, the company holds a significant position that could be leveraged for better market performance [1]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Previously, the urea market was affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity, with positive sentiment. However, the market sentiment declined, and the macro - atmosphere changed, leading to a decline in the urea futures market. - Urea production is at a high level, with sufficient supply. Agricultural demand is ending, and industrial demand is in the off - season. There are no bright spots on the demand side. - The company's inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years. Urea exports are restricted, and the overall port inventory has changed little [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On July 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1738 yuan/ton (- 65). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1790 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (- 10). The Shandong basis was 42 yuan/ton (+ 55), the Henan basis was 52 yuan/ton (+ 45), and the Jiangsu basis was 62 yuan/ton (+ 55) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of July 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.59% (0.08%). Newly added urea production devices are gradually put into operation, and the output remains high [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of July 28, 2025, the urea production profit was 250 yuan/ton (- 10). The overall operating rate of urea is at a high level [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of July 28, 2025, the urea export profit was 1037 yuan/ton (- 46). Urea exports are restricted, and the second batch of export quotas is progressing slowly [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of July 28, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.58% (+ 1.03%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.20% (+ 0.96%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (- 0.12). Agricultural demand is ending, industrial demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of autumn compound fertilizer production has been slow to increase [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 85.88 million tons (- 3.67), and the port sample inventory was 54.30 million tons (+ 0.20). The enterprise inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years [1][2]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market price has increased, with PVC futures showing an upward trend. However, traders are primarily engaging in fixed-price transactions, leading to a weakening of the basis for actual transactions [1] - The mainstream cash price for PVC in East China is between 5000-5120 RMB/ton, while in South China it ranges from 5000-5110 RMB/ton. Prices in Hebei are between 4730-4870 RMB/ton, and in Shandong, they range from 4880-4960 RMB/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 74.97%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The operating rate for calcium carbide-based PVC is 77.52%, an increase of 0.59 percentage points, while the ethylene-based PVC rate is 68.31%, down by 1.92 percentage points [2] - As of July 17, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China is 6.10 days, a decrease of 1.29%. This reduction is attributed to high pre-sales and accelerated deliveries to both domestic and international markets [2] PVC Market Outlook - The market sentiment has significantly declined, with prices showing little fluctuation. The current supply-demand dynamics indicate a seasonal decrease in demand, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals. The demand for procurement remains low, and export orders are generally weak, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory [3] - The macroeconomic environment has improved, causing a collective rebound in commodities. However, the short-term trading logic is more influenced by macro sentiment rather than the fundamentals of the PVC market, suggesting a cautious approach for the time being [3]